Minnesota Sports Forum

John Wall, Derrick Favors, DeMar DeRozan, Harrison Barnes.

Hyped as prep players, drafted highly, disappointing to somewhat disappointing first couple of years....and now - poof! - they are putting it together.

Whenever I get down about a subpar Wiggins performance, I'm going to think about these four guys.

Lebron, Melo, Dwayne Wade...Guys I think of

Brandon BassHole wrote:Lebron, Melo, Dwayne Wade...Guys I think of

All had success their rookie year, but they are clearly exceptions. And even as exceptions, their stats in their initial seasons were much worse than their career averages.

James is a 50% career shooter, but only shot 42% as a rookie. And he averaged 7 fewer PPG.

Wade shot almost 30 percentage points worse his first year, and averaged 8 PPG less.

Anthony's stats his first year were the closest to his career averages, but he even shot 30 percentage points worse and averaged 4 PPG less. And he is also clearly the least effective player of the three. My hopes for Wiggins are much higher than Anthony.

That said, Wiggins is more of a timid rookie like the guys in q's post than the guys in BB's, so I expect his improvement progression to be slower than BB's Big 3. Similar to Favors, I think you can set his ceiling at approximately double his rookie stats. I think Wiggins will be a 12-6 guy this year with excellent defense, and a 24-7 guy in his 4th year with elite defense. The key word is definitely patience, but it will be fun to watch the progress too.

I saw Harness Barnes mentioned. How is he doing this year? I see from his stats he is having kind of a bounce back year and is really shooting high %'s.

bleedspeed177 wrote:I saw Harness Barnes mentioned. How is he doing this year? I see from his stats he is having kind of a bounce back year and is really shooting high %'s.

I haven't watched a GS game yet this year, but his stats are certainly efficient and improved. He's started all 10 games and is shooting 54% (48% on threes)...rebounds are up too. He's only scoring 12 a game but he's doing it with fewer shots...tough to be a big scorer on that team with Thompson and Curry.

LST, Correct, my analogy here is more about showing patience with Wiggins and Bennett, neither of whom have shown an immediate ability to be impact players. The guys I alluded to sort of underachieved through their first couple of years - and a few more in Favors and DeRozan's case - before coming on really strong this year.

Durant, LeBron, and Wade were putting up all-star caliber numbers by their second or third year and were the alpha-dogs of their respective teams early. I don't necessarily see Bennett or Wiggins on a fast-track like those guys, but I do think they can eventually become very good players. Hopefully they can stay healthy!

I think that Wiggins can still follow Kevin Garnett route to super stardom. Since he is so young, it might be unrealistic to expect him to perform immediately but still it is possible that he shows fast improvement in his 2nd and 3rd year like Garnett and will be star faster than guys that Q listed.

Good thread Q.

I said last summer people were giving up on Barnes way too early. It a small sample but it looks like he has bounced back.

On Barnes, I certainly don't think he can be a star, but the fact he's fulfilling the role-playing wing so nicely is a positive development. He's defending and being extremely efficient, which is exactly what you want from your lower usage guys.

Sebastian Telfair, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Derrick Williams.