Minnesota Sports Forum

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11340466/rookies-andrew-wiggins-rarely-make-sudden-impact

If you just want the quick summary, no rookies come in and have a positive impact on their team. Not even #1 picks. Not even Lebron or Durant.

Good article and makes a lot of sense. We had this situation with Dieng last year, where by all indications in the box score stats he started to come on strong as the season progressed, yet his RPM remained stubbornly sub-par. It just takes a while to learn the nuances of the NBA game, even if the raw skills are on display.

(by the way, my good buddy Robbie Hummel had a positive RPM last year!).

It would be interesting to see if this maxim held true in another era, back when players played 3-4 years of college ball before entering the NBA. For example, what about Larry Bird, Tim Duncan, or David Robinson? I have to believe they made a positive impact from day 1.

This is why I like the approach of blending rookies with established vets (who are actually good). I think most of us want to see competitive basketball while rebuilding as opposed to completely tearing things down to the studs like the Sixers.

Good article, with empirical evidence proving what we all already knew. While last year's rookie performance was historically bad, even in a typical year rookies don't contribute much to a team's immediate success.

As a guy who usually takes the long view when it comes to the Wolves, I see this as great news. This year's roster will consist of rookies and a bunch of guys Kevin Love didn't think were good enough for him to continue to waste his time playing with, and 25 wins is a reasonable prediction. The good news? Another top 5 draft pick for a PBO who actually seems to know what to do with a draft pick. We get to watch an athletic team learn to play together while some high ceiling 1st and 2nd year players learn about the NBA, and Flip gets to add another potentially elite player in next year's draft. Some here will say so what...the Timberwolves have never shown they can develop talent. I say BS...don't judge the Saunders era by the failings of Kahn, Rambis, Wittman, Adelman et al, because they failed and are gone. Yes, Taylor is still around and he has done some stupid things in the past, but I think Flip is alpha dog enough to tell Glen to shut up if and when he starts going down the wrong path again.

Wiggins, LaVine, Bennett, Rubio, Dieng, Muhammad is an extraordinary young core, especially with another top 5 pick coming in a year. Heck, GR3 may be a contributor some day too, and I haven't given up on 26 year old Chase Budinger either. Pek, Martin, Brewer, Turiaf, etc. will provide some veteran leadership for a couple years, but it's the under-24 group that is so exciting...incredibly athletic with very high ceilings. And finally a coach and PBO that shows some promise of knowing how to develop young talent.

longstrangetrip wrote:Good article, with empirical evidence proving what we all already knew. While last year's rookie performance was historically bad, even in a typical year rookies don't contribute much to a team's immediate success.

As a guy who usually takes the long view when it comes to the Wolves, I see this as great news. This year's roster will consist of rookies and a bunch of guys Kevin Love didn't think were good enough for him to continue to waste his time playing with, and 25 wins is a reasonable prediction. The good news? Another top 5 draft pick for a PBO who actually seems to know what to do with a draft pick. We get to watch an athletic team learn to play together while some high ceiling 1st and 2nd year players learn about the NBA, and Flip gets to add another potentially elite player in next year's draft. Some here will say so what...the Timberwolves have never shown they can develop talent. I say BS...don't judge the Saunders era by the failings of Kahn, Rambis, Wittman, Adelman et al, because they failed and are gone. Yes, Taylor is still around and he has done some stupid things in the past, but I think Flip is alpha dog enough to tell Glen to shut up if and when he starts going down the wrong path again.

Wiggins, LaVine, Bennett, Rubio, Dieng, Muhammad is an extraordinary young core, especially with another top 5 pick coming in a year. Heck, GR3 may be a contributor some day too, and I haven't given up on 26 year old Chase Budinger either. Pek, Martin, Brewer, Turiaf, etc. will provide some veteran leadership for a couple years, but it's the under-24 group that is so exciting...incredibly athletic with very high ceilings. And finally a coach and PBO that shows some promise of knowing how to develop young talent.

Agree 100% with this sentiment

I agree, Long. We really need to avoid tarring Flip as GM with the horrible decisions and failures of Kahn and McHale. As a head coach I have no doubt Flip will be better than the clueless Rambis and the checked-out Adelman.

Flip has proven to be an elite head coach, dating back to his years as a top CBA coach before leading the Wolves to multiple playoff appearances and 50-win seasons culminating in the 2004 Western Conference finals. He was leading the Wolves to 50-win seasons with a core of 1 -- i.e., KG as our only bona fide star. Even more telling for our purposes today was Flip's success developing young players like KG, Marbury, Wally, and Billups.

The jury is still out on Flip's tenure as head of basketball operations. But so far I'd say he's proving doubters like me wrong, assembling an impressive group of talented young players and showing remarkable patience and good judgment throughout the Kevin Love saga this summer.

Next season will be a struggle for this team. But we now have genuine reason for hope over the long haul -- thanks to Flip.

It is strange but the influx of this years youngsters with the trade included has made me forget about Shabazz and Dieng a couple of times in the last few days. We are insanely loaded with young potential unlike the Kahn years when we were just young and not talented. I am super pumped and don't really care about the rookies impact. We have lots of talent dispersed throughout our roster. I think this will be one of the most fun years yet for the wolves.

This was a very interesting read.

I was skeptical of these stats (RPM and WAR) but I also don't know what all goes into what makes these rankings (I realize its complicated) but now I spent some time looking at them unrelated to this article) and I feel correct in my skeptisism. According to these stats Channing Frye was one of the best PFs in the league. Corey Brewer had one of the highest ORPMs of any SF in the NBA (Pek was #1 for centers). I'm not throwing these stats out the window but if you are really buying into these than like Q said Robbie Hummel is a freaking bargain and even Chase performed half decent. Danny Green was top 5 in RPM for SGs. I'm one of the biggest Danny Green fans around but he isn't that good. Let's agree these stats are worth looking at but are an imperfect way to judge impact on the floor and not get too carried away.

Sidenote: JJ was nowhere in the top 40 players at PG in any of these rankings. Lol