Why we shouldn't trade Love. And why NO TEAM should trade a superstar. EVER.
Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 6:48 pm
At some point, the smaller markets, the medium markets, the non-"destination" markets, they're gonna have to collectively wise the hell up and realize that trading superstars for parts is NOT a better option than letting superstars walk for nothing. Not with the way the salary cap is set up in this league.
Love wants to go to a contender. Contenders are, almost without exception, at or over the cap. They can't sign him outright unless he's willing to take an enormous (~70%) paycut and play for the MLE. His only route to these teams, for the most part, is through sign and trade. This would also appear to be in our best interest as well; after all, you want compensation for the loss of a superstar player. You want pieces for the inevitable rebuild, right?
But what pieces can you really get? You can't get fair value without stripping your trade partner, and stripping your trade partner will submarine them right out of contender status - the very thing that is attracting Love to said trade partner in the first place. Besides, most of the teams with actual legit lottery picks and young players aren't contenders anyways. You'd love to trade him to Phoenix, but they're not going to bite unless he resigns. And he's not going to resign in Phoenix.
So it seems like he's got us over a barrel, huh? Like we should eventually take practically whatever we can get from whichever contender offers up the least offensive (but still not particularly potent) offer. This usually means a mediocre lottery pick well outside of the "franchise player" range, one or two decent young players who will absolutely flee our team when their contracts end, and some horrendous salary-matching deal that will expire in a year or two. Gee, why do these contenders, with such smart GMs, always have one or two "horrible deals" on hand for salary-matching purposes...
I'll tell you why. Because the whole "trade us your superstar for this nonsense because it's better than losing him for nothing" deal is a gigantic fucking racket. The ONLY way these guys get to the big markets and the super teams is if all the other smaller markets and teams willingly participate in what is basically self-sabotage. We continually funnel our superstar players to the "teams that matter" at their behest in exchange for what exactly? An outside chance at getting another superstar who will force the exact same play in 3-4 years?
The smart thing to do in this situation: let Kevin Love walk for absolutely nothing. If he can sign outright with a legitimate super team, oh well. There are only so many of those situations in the NBA. For the most part, contenders are capped out and unable to outright sign max players to fair market deals. Sure, Love might land some place cushy. But what about the next superstar, the one right behind him? What if there isn't any place for him to go as an unrestricted free agent? You think he's taking a $10m a year paycut? Or is he going to look around, assess the "next tier" of teams, and maybe go some place less marquee in exchange for his proper market compensation?
Getting picks and a player or two in exchange for Love might help us short term, but it won't solve the overriding problem with the NBA: small/medium markets continually sending superstar players to the bigger teams. Don't forget that every superteam you create is one you also have to contend with. If three small markets separately ship superstars to loaded teams and create three new superteams, those smaller markets might be inadvertently generating 10-12 more losses for themselves per season for 2-3 years out.
I'm rambling, but I hope I've effectively conveyed my point here. We shouldn't be complicit in this ongoing scam. We should be banding together with other small and medium markets to send these superstar players a message: if you want to join the next superteam, you better be prepared to take a massive pay cut.
Love wants to go to a contender. Contenders are, almost without exception, at or over the cap. They can't sign him outright unless he's willing to take an enormous (~70%) paycut and play for the MLE. His only route to these teams, for the most part, is through sign and trade. This would also appear to be in our best interest as well; after all, you want compensation for the loss of a superstar player. You want pieces for the inevitable rebuild, right?
But what pieces can you really get? You can't get fair value without stripping your trade partner, and stripping your trade partner will submarine them right out of contender status - the very thing that is attracting Love to said trade partner in the first place. Besides, most of the teams with actual legit lottery picks and young players aren't contenders anyways. You'd love to trade him to Phoenix, but they're not going to bite unless he resigns. And he's not going to resign in Phoenix.
So it seems like he's got us over a barrel, huh? Like we should eventually take practically whatever we can get from whichever contender offers up the least offensive (but still not particularly potent) offer. This usually means a mediocre lottery pick well outside of the "franchise player" range, one or two decent young players who will absolutely flee our team when their contracts end, and some horrendous salary-matching deal that will expire in a year or two. Gee, why do these contenders, with such smart GMs, always have one or two "horrible deals" on hand for salary-matching purposes...
I'll tell you why. Because the whole "trade us your superstar for this nonsense because it's better than losing him for nothing" deal is a gigantic fucking racket. The ONLY way these guys get to the big markets and the super teams is if all the other smaller markets and teams willingly participate in what is basically self-sabotage. We continually funnel our superstar players to the "teams that matter" at their behest in exchange for what exactly? An outside chance at getting another superstar who will force the exact same play in 3-4 years?
The smart thing to do in this situation: let Kevin Love walk for absolutely nothing. If he can sign outright with a legitimate super team, oh well. There are only so many of those situations in the NBA. For the most part, contenders are capped out and unable to outright sign max players to fair market deals. Sure, Love might land some place cushy. But what about the next superstar, the one right behind him? What if there isn't any place for him to go as an unrestricted free agent? You think he's taking a $10m a year paycut? Or is he going to look around, assess the "next tier" of teams, and maybe go some place less marquee in exchange for his proper market compensation?
Getting picks and a player or two in exchange for Love might help us short term, but it won't solve the overriding problem with the NBA: small/medium markets continually sending superstar players to the bigger teams. Don't forget that every superteam you create is one you also have to contend with. If three small markets separately ship superstars to loaded teams and create three new superteams, those smaller markets might be inadvertently generating 10-12 more losses for themselves per season for 2-3 years out.
I'm rambling, but I hope I've effectively conveyed my point here. We shouldn't be complicit in this ongoing scam. We should be banding together with other small and medium markets to send these superstar players a message: if you want to join the next superteam, you better be prepared to take a massive pay cut.