Minnesota Sports Forum

I think Boston Celtics are fine with being a second apron team: https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2023/1 ... ltics-wyc/

I also think Wolves are ok with it, if they have a successful year. Assuming we embrace the second apron:

(1) Does it matter much how much we pay Jaden? If we don't extend him before the regular season, there are several teams that might be able to offer him a max deal in restricted free agency. Spurs, Magic, Detroit and Utah, plus a few others might be able to max Jaden. TC needs to get a deal done below the max before regular season or otherwise if we are going to max him ala Wiggins we might as well let season play out.

(2) How much will the Wolves have to spend on an oustside free agent? Maybe the Wolves want to sign Monte Morris or Tyus in free agency, what exceptions could we use, if at all? I think the MLE might disappear, but couldn't the Wolves just trade for the players they want at the deadline and resign them as their own players at a larger salary. So lets say Monte Morris would want 10M per year and we don't have a MLE, couldn't we offer Minott and/ or Moore and maybe JMAC or TB as salary filler plus a second rounder or two for him to Detroit and Detroit is probably out of playoff race by then and faces losing Morris for nothing, so they take our assets even if not that appealing unless they find a better offer. Same might be true with Tyus as Washington faces losing him for nothing although Washington might actually overpay to keep him whereas Detroit has plenty of young point guards, so I think Morris is probably more attainable.

KG4Ever wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:07 am I think Boston Celtics are fine with being a second apron team: https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2023/1 ... ltics-wyc/

I also think Wolves are ok with it, if they have a successful year. Assuming we embrace the second apron:

(1) Does it matter much how much we pay Jaden? If we don't extend him before the regular season, there are several teams that might be able to offer him a max deal in restricted free agency. Spurs, Magic, Detroit and Utah, plus a few others might be able to max Jaden. TC needs to get a deal done below the max before regular season or otherwise if we are going to max him ala Wiggins we might as well let season play out.

(2) How much will the Wolves have to spend on an oustside free agent? Maybe the Wolves want to sign Monte Morris or Tyus in free agency, what exceptions could we use, if at all? I think the MLE might disappear, but couldn't the Wolves just trade for the players they want at the deadline and resign them as their own players at a larger salary. So lets say Monte Morris would want 10M per year and we don't have a MLE, couldn't we offer Minott and/ or Moore and maybe JMAC or TB as salary filler plus a second rounder or two for him to Detroit and Detroit is probably out of playoff race by then and faces losing Morris for nothing, so they take our assets even if not that appealing unless they find a better offer. Same might be true with Tyus as Washington faces losing him for nothing although Washington might actually overpay to keep him whereas Detroit has plenty of young point guards, so I think Morris is probably more attainable.

1) To answer your question it, we in theory can offer Jaden a max. It makes no sense for the wolves to do that at this time because each million could be huge in avoiding the 2nd apron, it also makes so real sense for Jaden to sign a deal because there is a world he could get the max in RFA. The thing what sucks is Jaden is also Ant agent so it’s an interesting line the wolves need to follow.

2) If the wolves go over the 2nd apron, they can sign only Min guys, meaning signings of Shake Milton and Troy Brown Jr. couldn’t have happened this season. You can’t do a trade to acquire more salary (so in theory if the wolves were over this year they would need to add Kyle Anderson or Naz to make the money work to get a guy like Tyus. The group of Moore, miller, Minott only get us to like 7 million total). If you are an apron team you can’t participate in the buyout market, so guys like Pat Bev or Russ Westbrook were impossible to add for example. Maybe the big thing is if you are a 2nd apron team for 2 straight years your first round pick goes to the end of the 1st round in 7 years. So in 2031 for example when Ant and Mcdaniels are no longer under contract the wolves could hypothetically be shit and the number 1 pick in the 2031 draft could become pick 32.

If we want to keep our big four past this year, we will likely be a second apron team unless we get a good deal on Jaden's contract and dump Naz's contract. I'm sure TC and the owners are willing to be a second apron team if they have a serious title contending team. I expect Boston and perhaps a few other teams to accept the second apron restrictions and keep all their top talent. I think Wolves may decide at the trade deadline which route they will pursue.

Yes, the Wolves will be a second apron team if they keep Rudy, KAT, Ant, Naz and Jaden. Will Wolves management and ownership be willing to become a 2nd apron team? Who knows. Should they consider exceeding the second apron? My answer is no unless they’re at the level of the Celtics where they’re expected to be vying for the NBA championship. Currently, the Nuggets, Bucks and Celtics are the only three teams in that category based on their rosters AND how they performed last season.

The Bucks and Celtics had the best and second-best records respectively in the NBA last season while Denver won the NBA championship. The Bucks were knocked out of the playoffs by a super-hot Miami team that had everything going at once and ended up in the NBA finals. Since then the Bucks have effectively swapped Jrue Holiday for Damion Lillard, which is a net upgrade. The Celtics have added Porzingis and Jrue Holiday while losing Smart. That strikes me as a net upgrade. Meanwhile, they still have Tatum and Brown, both of whom are young enough that they will likely improve.

If the Wolves end up in the NBA finals or finish with one of the two or three best records in the NBA, then it MIGHT be worth exceeding the 2nd apron next season. Anything short of that, then the Wolves should absolutely avoid the second apron. They should NOT avoid the second apron by letting Jaden or Naz go. That means trading Rudy or KAT - a debate we’ve had at length on this message board. I’d like to see the Wolves trade Rudy for the necessary salary relief and a few future 2nd-round picks, which is probably the best they can expect. But we’ll see how this season turns out.

If the Wolves this all plays out and the Wolves are good then signing guys like Shake, Brown etc…well they may just keep those guys another year because they can’t replace them and may not want to. Plus at the end of a 2 year deal then you have early bird rights so you can give them a decent pay raise if they want to keep them beyond 1 year.

All of this is why Connelly has to make smart solid moves to build the roster. At this point it’s looking like he made a really nice move in acquiring NAW in the Russell trade and then signing him to a fairly inexpensive 2 year deal. How many other moves like this will Connelly have made this offseason? Remember he signed Kyle Anderson as the top FA last offseason and that was a heck of a move especially for the price. I think Connelly deserves a little bit of trust or at least some legit intrusive in seeing how some of his moves work out. Not everything will work out but if we can keep adding a player here and there that is legitimately worthwhile that matters quite a bit.

Of course another thing that matters a lot is whether the coaching staff ends up getting the most out of this group. I’m feeling mostly positive about that but I do want to see it.

The Boston Celtics have been in the ECF in 5 of the past 7 seasons.

And they're trying to get over the proverbial hump to win a championship.

_________

The Timberwolves, in a smaller market, are just hoping to get out of the 1st round for the 2nd time in 35 years. They do not have realistic title aspirations at this time. Nor do they need to make the conference finals or finals to have a successful season(s).

This is all why I'm very confident that big pieces will be moved sooner than later, e.g., Towns.

AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:42 pm The Boston Celtics have been in the ECF in 5 of the past 7 seasons.

And they're trying to get over the proverbial hump to win a championship.

_________

The Timberwolves, in a smaller market, are just hoping to get out of the 1st round for the 2nd time in 35 years. They do not have realistic title aspirations at this time. Nor do they need to make the conference finals or finals to have a successful season(s).

This is all why I'm very confident that big pieces will be moved sooner than later, e.g., Towns.

With Naz and Garza on the bench, it seems to me that the things Rudy does well is MUCH harder to replace than the things KAT does well.

We'll have to see what happens though....it will be a good problem to have if we actually get on a roll this season and win a playoff series. Would they still pull the trigger on something? What if we won two playoff series? May be at that point ownership is willing to pony up.

But if it's no playoffs or another first round exit, someone is getting moved and the most likely candidate is KAT.

Monster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 8:02 pm If the Wolves this all plays out and the Wolves are good then signing guys like Shake, Brown etc…well they may just keep those guys another year because they can’t replace them and may not want to. Plus at the end of a 2 year deal then you have early bird rights so you can give them a decent pay raise if they want to keep them beyond 1 year.

All of this is why Connelly has to make smart solid moves to build the roster. At this point it’s looking like he made a really nice move in acquiring NAW in the Russell trade and then signing him to a fairly inexpensive 2 year deal. How many other moves like this will Connelly have made this offseason? Remember he signed Kyle Anderson as the top FA last offseason and that was a heck of a move especially for the price. I think Connelly deserves a little bit of trust or at least some legit intrusive in seeing how some of his moves work out. Not everything will work out but if we can keep adding a player here and there that is legitimately worthwhile that matters quite a bit.

Of course another thing that matters a lot is whether the coaching staff ends up getting the most out of this group. I’m feeling mostly positive about that but I do want to see it.

I'm in the same camp as you, monster...let's see how this plays out, and put a little trust in TC. We're all reluctant to jump to any conclusions based on 3 preseason games, but there's no question that this roster has some promise if they can stay healthy (always a big if). The Naz signing and Ant extension combined with whatever deal Jaden is going to get has made it a certainty that we will be in the second apron if management/ownership wants to keep the band together. But the ramifications of that are a matter for discussion. If this team is very successful this year, not being able to sign free agents and drafting at the end of the first round will not seem too punitive (the money that ownership will have to shell out is a different matter, but the combined net worth of Lore and ARod can certainly absorb it). And if we are not successful this year (and by successful, I mean a deep run in the playoffs), it's a slam dunk that at least one of our key players will be moved. I going to stay in the optimistic camp until this roster proves to me they just don't have it.

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 1:46 pm

Monster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 8:02 pm If the Wolves this all plays out and the Wolves are good then signing guys like Shake, Brown etc…well they may just keep those guys another year because they can’t replace them and may not want to. Plus at the end of a 2 year deal then you have early bird rights so you can give them a decent pay raise if they want to keep them beyond 1 year.

All of this is why Connelly has to make smart solid moves to build the roster. At this point it’s looking like he made a really nice move in acquiring NAW in the Russell trade and then signing him to a fairly inexpensive 2 year deal. How many other moves like this will Connelly have made this offseason? Remember he signed Kyle Anderson as the top FA last offseason and that was a heck of a move especially for the price. I think Connelly deserves a little bit of trust or at least some legit intrusive in seeing how some of his moves work out. Not everything will work out but if we can keep adding a player here and there that is legitimately worthwhile that matters quite a bit.

Of course another thing that matters a lot is whether the coaching staff ends up getting the most out of this group. I’m feeling mostly positive about that but I do want to see it.

I'm in the same camp as you, monster...let's see how this plays out, and put a little trust in TC. We're all reluctant to jump to any conclusions based on 3 preseason games, but there's no question that this roster has some promise if they can stay healthy (always a big if). The Naz signing and Ant extension combined with whatever deal Jaden is going to get has made it a certainty that we will be in the second apron if management/ownership wants to keep the band together. But the ramifications of that are a matter for discussion. If this team is very successful this year, not being able to sign free agents and drafting at the end of the first round will not seem too punitive (the money that ownership will have to shell out is a different matter, but the combined net worth of Lore and ARod can certainly absorb it). And if we are not successful this year (and by successful, I mean a deep run in the playoffs), it's a slam dunk that at least one of our key players will be moved. I going to stay in the optimistic camp until this roster proves to me they just don't have it.

Yes let’s see how things play out.

One of the ways I look at every season is that it’s a way to evaluate players. Sometimes it’s a hope guys have that upside you hope for and sometimes it’s to find out a guy just isn’t actually good or isn’t the player you hoped for. Maybe that player is still useful but not a starter or a top rotation player. Last year McLaughlin was a guy I decided I just couldn’t trust as a top backup because of injuries and he also didn’t play well for a chunk of the season which may have been injury related but he has had some injuries over his career. I didn’t want him off the roster (I’m a big fan and believe he can still play especially for basically the vet min) I just thought he needed to be upgraded. That was just a couple months from when I had declared him to be a guy I wanted to extend him on a cheap contract.

On the other hand Naz Reid took another step forward. I still don’t know what he can be in the future but he went from at least a role player to at least a top rotation player on a good team and a legit fill in starter even if he has flaws.

Nowell might have played himself out of the league. Nobody was expecting him to struggle that bad and I know we are homers but…yikes.

So with that in mind at the end of this season the Wolves and us as fans will have more data points and likely a somewhat different take on various players good or bad. Maybe someone will step up on the perimeter and there will be less need to fill that guard spot next to Edwards. Maybe there will be a gaping hole and the Wolves will absolutely need to move someone to help on the perimeter. It’s time to get ready to dive into the season and see what happens over a chunk of games. Will NAW be a big upgrade over Rivers? Will Shake be an upgrade over Nowell? Will we REALLY miss Prince? It’s likely there will be at least one player on the roster that disappoints when the season ends.

Let’s also remember that just because a season starts poorly for a player doesn’t mean they suck. Remember when Russell was terrible initially? He really came on offensively and the Wolves probably sold a little bit high when they did. There are gonna be ups and downs. Hopefully this season more ups.

AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:42 pm The Boston Celtics have been in the ECF in 5 of the past 7 seasons.

And they're trying to get over the proverbial hump to win a championship.

_________

The Timberwolves, in a smaller market, are just hoping to get out of the 1st round for the 2nd time in 35 years. They do not have realistic title aspirations at this time. Nor do they need to make the conference finals or finals to have a successful season(s).

This is all why I'm very confident that big pieces will be moved sooner than later, e.g., Towns.

I agree, Abe. My only caveat is that I don’t see the Wolves moving Rudy, KAT or Naz if the Wolves end up a top 4 team that makes it at least to the Western Conference Finals. If that happens, I strongly suspect the Wolves will keep the team’s core in tact even thought it will push the team over the 2nd apron.