Minnesota Sports Forum

It has been the most enjoyable season I can remember in my 25 years following this team. 1st seed in the West at the All Star break and with a new forged identity as a defensive juggernaut. But I feel like we need to address the elephant in the room - this offseason and the dreaded second apron.

With KAT's supermax and Ant & Jaydens new contracts kicking in we are sitting at 173.2mil of guaranteed contracts with only 8 players signed (assuming they don't take up Moore Jr's team option).

With an estimated 4% increase in salary cap the first Apron will increase to 179 mil. The second Apron will increase to 190 mil.

The penalties incurred if we hit the second apron aren't really realistic for a small market team with new majority owners. Nor is it sensible with the penalties becoming more severe.

With Mike Conley and Monte Morris the two key UFA's and both likely demanding 8 - 10 mil per season, we will struggle to resign one of them let alone two, while also having to fill out another 5 - 6 rosters spots.

Something has to give.

What would you do if you were in TC's shoes?

Here is one bullet dodged... I thought Mike Conley's 1.5 mil bonus for winning the NBA finals would guarantee the Wolves being a tax paying team THIS year. But the CBA specifically says "based on their team salary as of the team's last regular season game". So the NBA finals bonus does not count towards the team's salary!

Whew! Not being a repeat tax-payer is a big bonus for NEXT year...

Getting back to the original narrative of what TC is going to do...

We were all tied up in a knot about the future finances LAST off-season, coming up with ways we might fix it. Well, TC stayed the course. And while the financial mess still lurks next off-season, this current season has been wonderful!

And a great thing about this season is all our players have increased their value! Both KAT and Gobert have repaired whatever damage was done to their value last year. This means TC should have options if he is required by new ownership to avoid the steep luxury taxes.

But I suspect ownership will be all in on bringing it back next year (assuming a reasonable amount of success this year). And if that's the case, what's the penalty other than financial? All the penalties for crossing one or both aprons relate to roster building. But TC already has our roster built! With Bird Rights intact, he can re-sign Conley, Monte, and even SloMo and/or Jmac. He can add to the roster by signing Jaylen Clark, and he'll have our 1st round pick. The signing/trading restrictions imposed by crossing the apron thresholds just doesn't affect TC's ability to keep our own guys.

So, win a title, and go for a repeat next year!

if we make it to the WCF or better, it's a price worth paying.

If not, then TC will have to get what he can for Towns and bet the fate of the franchise on McDaniels essentially replacing KAT.

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 9:47 pm if we make it to the WCF or better, it's a price worth paying.

If not, then TC will have to get what he can for Towns and bet the fate of the franchise on McDaniels essentially replacing KAT.

Not sure about where that "need to do something about second apron/KAT" threshold is if we end up at or near the top of the West in regular season standings, especially since there appears not to be any on or off floor chemistry related issues that exist.

It might depend on how we get bounced from the playoffs. Did the two-big lineup get played off the floor by a team that went small with 5-out sets? Does a key guy get hurt? Did Ant's worst tendencies make an appearance during crunch time? Did KAT's worst tendencies make an appearance in half the games? Did the other team just get white-hot with shooting luck?

For example, if Ant, KAT or Rudy are hurt for the playoffs, that's an easy excuse to run it back given all the regular season success. On the other hand, if KAT has a bunch of stray voltage and foul/turnover problems and fails to show up for the big games on our way to a first round exit, that would probably result in a different outcome for the offseason.

I’m copying the following post I made to start another thread. My bottom line is that it make sense to bring this team back next season under almost any scenario even though it means going above the second apron:

I took another look at the Wolves salary situation after this season. The Wolves will obviously end up above the second apron next season if they keep KAT, Rudy, Ant and Jaden.

The second apron line is expected to be $190.8 million. The Wolves will have a payroll of $176,345,709 for 9 players under contract for next season, which does not include Conley, Anderson, Morris or JMac. Here are the salaries of those four players on expiring contracts: Conley ($24,360,000), Kyle ($9,219,512), Morris ($9,800,926), JMac ($2,320,000). Bargain contracts for all four next season would probably be something like $15,000,000 for Conley, $7,000,000 for Anderson, $5,000,000 for Morris and $2,000,000 for JMac. Signing all four at those prices would add another $29,000,000 to the payroll, putting the total payroll at $205,345,709 — already around $14.5 million over the 2nd apron with at least one more roster slot to fill. And that’s assuming we can re-sign all four at those bargain prices I’m assuming. If the Wolves end up at least in the Conference Finals or better, then hopefully Conley, Anderson and Morris will be motivated to return at a bargain price. But they’ll all have a lot of bargaining leverage knowing that the Wolves’ 2nd apron constraints will preclude using any of the cap exceptions to sign significant free agents.

The bottom line is this:

If the Wolves at least get to the NBA finals (or maybe even just the Western Conference Finals), then I think the Wolves will have to bring everyone back knowing the team will be well above the second apron. That’s one reason why I’m so pleased with the Morris signing. The Wolves wouldn’t be able to use a salary cap exception to sign him or a comparable player for next season but now they can use their Bird rights to keep him. I believe the Wolves can still sign players using the vet minimum to fill out the remaining one or two roster spots. Perhaps Minott, Miller and/or Clark will be ready to contribute next season. If the Wolves are good enough to make the NBA finals this season, then the transactional constraints associated with the 2nd apron shouldn’t be an issue and it will just be more money out of the owners’ pockets, which is their problem, not ours.

But what if the Wolves falter and end up getting bounced in the 1st or second round? That would create a challenging dilemma for the organization. Would it make sense to go over the second apron by bringing back the same crew after that sort of playoff collapse without the flexibility to significantly improve the roster? On the other hand, it’s unlikely we’d get fair value in return for Rudy, KAT or Jaden in what would obviously be a salary dump to one of the few teams with cap room to absorb much of the incoming salary. I think it would be especially difficult to get fair value for Rudy or KAT given how much they make and their age. Teams might give up more talent/assets for Jaden given his lower salary and his youth. In any event, the Wolves would be in a tough spot trying to unload one of those three contracts with other teams having the leverage of knowing the Wolves cap situation.

What all this tells me is that the Wolves will likely bring this same team back next season no matter what happens in this season’s playoffs. As a result, the team we have now is the team we’ll likely have next season as well and this organization will spend at least next season in second apron hell. The good news is that the team we have is very talented and, with the exception of Conley, it’s not comprised of very old players on the verge of suddenly losing their skills as many NBA players often do in their late 30s. And now we have the 28 year old Morris as insurance behind Conley. Further, Rudy’s player option after next season provides the organization with an opportunity to negotiate a new long-term contract at a lower annual salary that could potentially get the Wolves below the second apron the following season.

That’s a long way of saying we should enjoy the rest of this season and the playoffs knowing that the team we have now will likely be the team we have at least through next season no matter what happens. Meanwhile, Ant will likely continue to get better while he and KAT continue to get more comfortable playing with Rudy and vise versa. And hopefully Jaden will take the leap forward we’ve been waiting for. We’ll also have a late first round pick and a top 6 our 7 2nd round pick in June to add to our stock of young talent. So after giving this a lot of thought, I’m at peace with what we have and what it means going forward.