Mavs-OKC, Game 6, Quarter 1
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 4:50 pm
To get a better sense of what to expect from Dallas, I started watching their last game against OKC. I planned to watch the whole game, taking notes, before writing up some basic thoughts for the Dallas-Minnesota analysis thread. But I found myself getting into so much detail, I only had time for Q1, and I didn't want to drop so much detail in that other thread, so I'm putting it here. I'm listing a few basic takeaways, and the rest is basically a play-by-play with my ideas about how it might relate to us in bold.
A couple basic takeaways (again, remembering it was just 1 quarter, but a key one):
1) A huge percentage of their offense was Luka-big pick and rolls, so to the extent that the quarter was representative, preparing to guard that will be the key to the series defensively.
2) Gafford's thing was, he'd set a ton of picks for Luka or Kyrie, then he'd start slipping them and looking for an easy lob by keeping the defense guessing.
3) Kyrie and Luka didn't really play off each other, a missed opportunity for them (but great for us!). Kyrie and Green seemed to play off each other a decent amount.
4) They used a good deal of zone D when Lively came in. That will be new for us. Better get ready!
5) Unlike Gafford, they sometimes had Lively come up to the key, give him the ball, and have him hand the ball off to Luka or Kyrie and then set a screen, a smart way to get them the ball moving with momentum.
6) Hardy was aggressive, and arguably worked the lob to Lively better than Luka.
7) They could be undisciplined offensively and make poor decisions.
8) Other than Gafford and Lively, they really aren't that big.
9) Their D was pretty good all around. They seemed to really want to close the paint.
• OKC with a crazy bucket just a second or two after the tip.
• On their first play, Gafford sets a great pick for Luka, knocking Dort back and also rolling to the paint. Doncic drives with Dort on his back. Chet has to choose whether to guard Luka or Gafford, and he chooses Gafford although Joe has already collapsed off DJJ in the right corner to help in the paint. Luka sees Chet pick up Gafford (their spacing is bad) and decides to sort of step back to his left kind of creating contact with Dort who is basically chasing him, and in doing so he sticks his leg out on the first shot to draw FTs (If you’re sick of Jokic getting away with shit, get ready for more. Jaden or whoever guards Luka needs to be careful to avoid getting baited into fouls.)
• First halfcourt possession Dallas forces a 24 second violation. This team can defend. DJJ’s on SGA. Luka’s on Dort, Gafford on Chet, PJ on Williams, and Kyrie on Joe. Pretty predictable defensive matchups for Dallas.
• Double drag screen with Kyrie and Gafford setting picks for Luka, seemingly trying to get Gafford rolling to the basket and the defense switching onto Luka, but the initial action doesn’t seem to work. So Luka dribbles it back and Gafford comes way out near midcourt to set the pick on Luka, Chet shows, Luka easily finds Gafford who takes it into the lane and Shai’s help D isn’t big enough to stop his offensive putback of his own miss. (There’s the Gafford-Luka pick and roll again. 2 for 2. I bet we’ll see a lot of that. Probably with Jaden and Rudy on defense. Those two should be strategizing in particular how to defend that, along with the rest of the team for help D.)
• OKC pretty quickly put Jalen Williams on Doncic and Dort on Kyrie. (Should we consider switching defenders on Luka to give him different looks too? I’ll try to see how this works)
• Another Gafford pick for Luka 10 feet outside the 3 point line, Chet shows, this time leading to a Jalen Williams steal and fast break. They’re really looking to work that Gafford pick for Luka, then when Chet shows hard, Luka’s trying to find Gafford with the pass, to mixed results so far.
• Kyrie brings it up on the next possession, gets past his defender on the baseline, but Chet deters him and Kyrie is forced to pass out to DJJ, who has to make a tough catch. Luka tries to drive on two defenders and turns it over. Leads to another OKC break and a foul (PJ with two quick fouls and Green comes in). (After 3 straight Luka-Gafford pick and rolls, they go to Kyrie to try to break down his defender one-on-one. I think Q or someone else pointed out that they do seem to have a Luka’s turn, Kyrie’s turn kind of offensive approach, and that does seem to be the case. There’s no sense that they were looking for each other when they initiated the offense. Luka’s looking for Gafford on the lob or his own jumper, and Kyrie definitely seems to be looking for his own shot.)
• OKC with 8 points off turnovers early.
• Next possession, Luka with the ball, there’s no pick coming this time (a change!), but OKC doubles Luka with Joe off DJJ, right after he brings it across the halfcourt line, and Luka easily finds DJJ at the FT line, though Chet is defending the paint. It’s like OKC ran a double team and the other 3 defenders switched to a zone to protect the paint. DJJ is easily able to take a dribble into a floater from 8 feet, which he misses but draws the foul. (DJJ was super efficient in games 4 and 5). The aggressive defense for OKC seemed to backfire a little there.
• Chet tries to post up Green who has subbed in, but Green holds his ground (KAT would probably have an easier time posting him up, but Green looked solid there), and OKC swings it and gets a Dort 3.
• Next possession, Dallas gives it to Kyrie to bring up the court, again on the left side, he tries to break down Williams, gets a pick from Gafford, but Jalen fights over it and cuts Kyrie off, Gafford sets a pick on the other side, this one stops Jalen a bit better, but he gets through and now Kyrie is on the baseline again, doubled by Chet and Jalen. He’s able to get a tough pass over to DJJ who has cut to the free throw line again, but Shai blocks his floater attempt from behind about 6 feet from the basket, leading to another OKC break, but Dallas recovers quickly. (First, oh my god, we’re just a few minutes in and Gafford has set like 10 picks already! Most around or outside the 3 point line. Second, Dallas’ D is playing with energy and getting back in transition. We should still look to run when possible, but we shouldn’t be surprised if they get back.)
• OKC’s offense looks shaky, Gafford is guarding Chet at the 3 point line, and OKC seems to be trying to drive to take advantage but can’t (good D by DJJ on Shai). OKC swings it to Chet who misses a 3. Good D by Dallas. OKC is leading because of their transition buckets, not what they’re getting in the halfcourt.
• Luka brings it up this time (so that’s Luka, Luka, Luka, Kyrie, Luka, Kyrie, Luka) just to the right of the top of the key, Kyrie to the left, Green in the left corner, Gafford in the left dunker spot, and DJJ in the right corner. No pick this time. Luka’s going one on one. With Dort on him, Luka hits a tough stepback 3 with Dort contesting. Dort may have gotten his hand after the shot, Luka falls down, throws up his hands, he’s clearly upset he doesn’t get the call, but to his credit he gets up quick and gets back on D. It’s 16-9 OKC. (The last couple of games, Luka has been pretty diligent about not complaining to the refs, which makes him more focused and effective for them. It would be nice to see our D really rattle him, but we shouldn’t count on it right now. He seems focused.)
• Joe sets a pick on DJJ, who was guarding Shai, which forces the switch so Luka’s guarding SGA on the left side with everybody else on the right. Luka’s defending well for him, and cuts off an SGA attempt to drive, but SGA gets a sidestep into an open shot from the elbow which he misses. (Ant would be able to get that shot all day with Luka on him one on one and hopefully knock it down, though it wouldn’t be the highest percentage shot, and I bet Dallas would be ok giving up that shot.)
• Luka brings it up again and SGA is guarding him this time, Gafford shows pick, but slips it and SGA overcompensates to get around a pick that isn’t there so Luka has him on his back dribbling to the free throw line with Gafford rolling on his right and Chet has to choose whether to stop Luka with the ball or Gafford on the roll. He picks Luka. Meanwhile, Dort collapses to the paint to help, pulling off DJJ in the left corner. Meanwhile Jalen floats between Green at the break and DJJ in the corner while Kyrie has floated deep behind the top of the key. Seeing Chet step up to him. Luka lobs it to Gafford and Dort knocks it away. (That play happens around the 7:45 minute mark of the first quarter. If you have League Pass, watch that play. I bet the Mavs will run that a ton against us and we will need to be able to figure out how to defend it. Chet closing early enough may have forced Luka to pass the ball a little before Gafford was ready for it, and Dort was really paying attention and collapsed to help in time. After Luka had SGA beat, I think that’s about as well as you can play that. Alternately, Dort could have collapsed to stop Luka’s drive and Chet could have stayed with Gafford, but then Dort would have needed to make a play on Luka and Luka would almost certainly have swung it to DJJ in the corner and it would have tested OKC’s defensive rotations. One other way to prevent that scenario is for Luka’s on-the-ball defender to just be more aware if Gafford is slipping the screen and make sure to just stay in front of Luka. SGA is good, but I gotta think Jaden, NAW, and Ant would be better than he did on that posession, so hopefully we could prevent that situation from unfolding in the first place. It would be key for Rudy or whoever is defending Gafford to call out when the pick is coming, from where, and when there’s a slip. That communication will be key.)
• OKC gets a 3 on 2 break out of breaking up that Luka lob that leads to a Williams 3 from the left corner, but he misses it.
• Luka gives it to Kyrie as he crosses halfcourt early in the shot clock. Gafford moves like he’s going to set a pick, but doesn’t, kind of slipping it even before showing it. It looks like Kyrie might have waved him off. (So after setting several picks, he’s slipped the last two. It seems like he’s trying to basically bait Chet into showing at the level so he can roll for an open dunk, but he slips it so early Chet only hesitates. Rudy will need to be ready to read and react to Gafford’s intentions quickly. Is he setting picks or slipping?) Anyway, just after Gafford slips the fake pick, Kyrie breaks down Joe off the dribble and gets to a little jumper from 7 feet on the left side of the paint. He made that look so easy, but I gotta think our man defenders on Kyrie are going to be better than that.
• OKC runs a Jalen-Chet pick and roll going left just left of the top of the key. Chet stops Green, Jalen drives, but Gafford is right there so he takes it baseline and finds Joe in the right corner. Joe looks to shoot but Kyrie’s defense is good, so he swings it back to Williams on the right break who now has Gafford on him with 6 seconds left. Williams takes Gafford off the dribble to the left elbow and misses a tough fadeaway. Good D by Dallas.
• Luka gets another Gafford screen at the top of the key, he dribbles to the right corner, Chet stops him and Dort recovers well enough to cover Gafford as he rolls to the left side of the rim. SGA is also there. Seeing Chet on him, Luka steps back for a 3 pointer and hits it.
• DJJ guarding SGA and doing a decent job. SGA dribbles into a tough spinning turnaround on the baseline and hits it despite the solid D by DJJ. (With SGA operating more or less about 6 feet off the right baseline during that possession, all the Dallas defenders were sagging off their guys who were spread around the 3 point line. Maybe they recognized that it was a tough part of the floor for SGA to pass out of. I know I haven’t liked it as much when Ant has gone down there with the ball. But there were open passes there for SGA to hit an open guy with a quick pass that could have been an open catch and shoot 3. The closeout might have been there, but it probably would have been a better choice than a tough turnaround. Still, Dallas wasn’t giving their shooters a lot of respect. All 5 of their defenders more or less had a foot on the edge of the paint. If they do that to Ant, the shooters need to be ready to let it fly, and Ant needs to be ready to kick it quickly to the open shooters, ideally KAT or Conley.)
• Kyrie brings it up with Williams on him, Green sets a pick for him on the right side even before Luka has crossed midcourt so they are basically playing 4 on 5 here. It looks like they’re trying to get the switch to put Joe onto Kyrie, but it doesn’t work. Joe shows hard, and Williams recovers. No matter. Kyrie drives and draws the handcheck foul.
• Giddey and Jaylin Williams check in for SGA and Chet. Lively in for Gafford.
• Green sets another pick for Kyrie, but Kyrie goes away from it. Giddey is guarding Green, probably because they don’t view him as much of a threat. So it seems clear they are trying to get the switch and the mismatch so Kyrie can roast Giddey, but Kyrie doesn’t seem to be playing along! Kyrie drives, puts a hand on Williams and seems to be trying to prompt the ref to call another foul, kicks it to Green in the corner who drives baseline on Giddey, and hits a tough turnaround shot.
• Lively on Giddey.
• OKC misses a 3 but gets an offensive rebound. Joe misses a 3.
• Lively sets a pick for Luka at the logo. (Man, get ready to see a boatload of fucking picks for Luka!) Doesn’t get called for the illegal screen but should have given how wide his base was. This forces the switch. Luka hits Lively with the pass in the pant. Dort is now behind him and Giddey collapses to the paint to help. One thing OKC is doing well is collapsing the corner defenders to the paint to help in this situation. Lively immediately kicks it out to Green who Giddey just left open in the corner (which is the danger of bringing that help, and why it’s so much better if we can fight over the screen and NOT have to switch or let the big roll unguarded to the paint). Green misses the open 3.
• Joe hits a jumper over Kyrie off the rebounded missed 3 from Green. Surprisingly tricky shot.
• Kyrie with the ball, Jalen Williams still guarding him, and guess what? A pick from Lively. Jaylin (who is guarding Lively) shows hard, Kyrie hits Lively on the roll with a somewhat awkward lob entry pass. Giddey is there in the paint for the help defense. Lively has a huge length advantage, but awkwardly throws up a shot that misses almost everything. (The more I watch the more it seems like so much of our defense is going to need to figure out how to stop this pick and roll game with Luka and Gafford/Lively and the different possible open shots it could get them depending on how the play unfolds. Obviously, if whoever is guarding Luka can fight over picks and stay in front of him to prevent the drive, that is ideal. Rudy can stick with the big, and they get basically no advantage. And even if Luka gets his defender on his back and the big starts rolling to the basket, there aren’t a lot of guys I would rather have defending that situation than Rudy. But it still leaves the question of how to respond. Should we go with a drop coverage to keep Rudy as close to the rim as possible to take away the lob threat to the rolling big or stop the Luka layup? Probably, but if we do, we need to be ready to have the help defense collapse onto Luka if need be, and then to start a rotation if he’s able to kick it out to the open shooters. I know our defense is really good, but defending that play is tough, and it’s different from what we saw against either Phoenix or Denver. Alternately, should Rudy be more aggressive and try to shut down Luka and try to prevent the lob to the big, maybe even showing at the level? If we do that, then we’ll need to make sure that whoever is guarding the corner shooter collapses into the paint to break up the lob. KAT is not great at this, but he is tall. Jaden is good at it, but theoretically, he’s on Luka or Kyrie. Ant? Given how often we may need to send that help, we should think about who we put on guys like PJ, DJJ, and Green, since those guys spend most of their time in the corners or at the break, so whoever guards them is likeliest to need to bring the help D. I can see KAT on PJ and maybe Green off the bench, and Mike on DJJ. We really might want to be ready to make some adjustments to defend this. I can see SloMo potentially playing a pretty important role here actually, maybe even guarding Luka so we can have Jaden be the help defender.)
• Jaylin Williams misses a 3.
• Kyrie brings it up and again plays the two-man game with Green, seemingly trying to get Giddey switched onto him, though it doesn’t work, so he passes out of it to Luka, who whips a crazy cross-court pass to Green in the corner. Green attacks but a foul is called.
• Mavs go to a zone defense?! OKC misses a floater.
• Jaden Hardy in now brings the ball up. Guess what? Lively sets a good screen on Wallace who is guarding Hardy. Jalen Williams was guarding Lively (man, OKC is small). Williams points to Lively calling for teammate to pick him up on the roll and meantime, he steps in to stop Hardy from driving. The help comes too late. Lively catches it cleanly right under the basket and it’s an easy dunk. It’s crazy that for all the times the Mavs ran the pick and roll so far (seriously, like 75% of their possessions), that Hardy to Lively play is the first one that led to an easy dunk. Gets the crowd in it.
• Dallas back to man D? Sort of? Giddey misses a 3 badly.
• Hardy somehow drives the length off the inbounds, tries to lob it to Lively, but Lively is guarded in the dunker’s spot and doesn’t expect it. Kyrie with the ball, OKC doubles to get it out of his hands. (only the second double of the quarter). DJJ catches it wide open at the key and drives but loses the ball.
• Dallas back to what looks like a zone, but SGA hits a 3.
• A handoff from Lively to Kyrie at the 3 point line, Lively sets a ridiculously wide screen on Kyrie’s man, gets away with it, Kyrie pulls up for a tough off the dribble 3 but misses.
• Again more zone from Dallas. Lively is camping in the paint. OKC misses a shot.
• Kyrie with the ball, defended by Giddey, no pick coming (surprising), and inexplicably just passes out of it to Hardy who hoists a 3 with the closeout coming at 15 seconds on the shot clock (really terrible possession so far by Dallas), but Dallas gets the offensive board and Kyrie sets up again at the top of the key. Kyrie is guarded by ?, Giddey is on Hardy on the left, and Giddey seems to bring a soft double from the left (really dumb) leaving Hardy wide open, Kyrie passes to Hardy again in the exact same spot as last time, this time Hardy drives the open lane, Jaylin Williams has to step in to stop the ball, leaving Lively wide open under the basket, the help defense doesn’t come from the other corner shooter, and Hardy hits Lively with a perfect lob for another dunk. (Bad D by OKC, but it makes me wish we were better about using Rudy as a lob threat this way. We shouldn’t throw it to Rudy when he’s moving, but if we just toss the ball to him gently around the rim when he’s waiting for it, he should get more easy dunks.)
• Luka’s on the bench getting a knee massage.
• Dallas’ D looks to be back towards man coverage, but they seem to be ready to hand off their guy and switch often. SGA hits a shot anyway.
• Green brings the ball up, passes it to Lively, then Green immediately sets a pick for Kyrie, Kyrie takes the handoff, Green pops, Lively rolls. Kyrie finds himself with two defenders on him now—his own coming behind him and Lively’s defender (Jaylin Williams)—the defense collapses and seems to want to take away the Lively roll, so Kyrie quickly tosses it back to Green on the right 3 point line above the break, Green kicks it to Hardaway in the right corner, Hardaway launches a closely-contested three that misses badly. Terrible shot.
• Dallas back in this zone thingy. They’ve basically got Lively in the middle at the free throw line with one defender on either side of him, and then two defenders on the block, weirdly, Kyrie is one of them. They are really not a huge team. Lively is really long and tall, but after him right now, Green is their biggest guy on the floor. PJ Washington still out with those 2 fouls, and he’s got a bit more size. Green is tough, but not long. They’re just not nearly as big as Denver with MPJ and Gordon. SGA draws a foul by driving and the zone defense fouls him on the drive.
• Dallas back to man now, Chet and Luka back in the game.
• Another foul on Dallas. Hardaway over the back on a rebound. With our size, I’d like to see them foul us like that.
• Luka brings it up, passes to Lively at the top of the key, Lively looks for Kyrie to come for the handoff, he doesn’t. He pivots and looks for Luka to come for the handoff, he doesn’t! So Lively figures, what the hell, and drives it right into the lane where Chet is waiting and Chet just strips him. Wow. That’s a few just boneheaded plays Dallas has made on offense now.
• Chet takes it coast to coast, but Lively keeps up with him fairly well (dude is pretty fast for his size), and Chet kicks it to Dort for the 3 before the defense sets, but Dort misses the open shot.
• Total chaos on the next Dallas possession. Luka finds Hardaway on the left side, Hardaway drives, the defense collapses, and he kicks it out to Hardy at the 3 point line, Hardy’s driving before he catches it (he might have had an open 3 if he’d have waited), Hardy spins, finds himself in a crowd, throws it wildly to the sideline, Lively saves it, meanwhile Luka gets hit by Dort and goes down, juts absolute chaos, Hardy to Green, back to Hardy, there’s no offense here at all, Hardy almost gets picked and then inexplicably seems to throw a pass to the OKC defense waiting in the paint with 1 second on the shot clock. (Dallas, if you’d like to play like that against us, please go for it!)
• Giddey, pressured by Green, just falls over, Green gets the jump ball.
• Mavs with a chance at the last shot of the quarter, Hardy shows to set a pick for Luka but slips it and cuts towards the left break, leaving OKC doubling Luka who hits Hardy with a beautiful behind the back bounce pass, Hardy drives and gets the and 1 against Chet. Pretty nice play.
• Jalen Williams hits that halfcourt shot.
A couple basic takeaways (again, remembering it was just 1 quarter, but a key one):
1) A huge percentage of their offense was Luka-big pick and rolls, so to the extent that the quarter was representative, preparing to guard that will be the key to the series defensively.
2) Gafford's thing was, he'd set a ton of picks for Luka or Kyrie, then he'd start slipping them and looking for an easy lob by keeping the defense guessing.
3) Kyrie and Luka didn't really play off each other, a missed opportunity for them (but great for us!). Kyrie and Green seemed to play off each other a decent amount.
4) They used a good deal of zone D when Lively came in. That will be new for us. Better get ready!
5) Unlike Gafford, they sometimes had Lively come up to the key, give him the ball, and have him hand the ball off to Luka or Kyrie and then set a screen, a smart way to get them the ball moving with momentum.
6) Hardy was aggressive, and arguably worked the lob to Lively better than Luka.
7) They could be undisciplined offensively and make poor decisions.
8) Other than Gafford and Lively, they really aren't that big.
9) Their D was pretty good all around. They seemed to really want to close the paint.
• OKC with a crazy bucket just a second or two after the tip.
• On their first play, Gafford sets a great pick for Luka, knocking Dort back and also rolling to the paint. Doncic drives with Dort on his back. Chet has to choose whether to guard Luka or Gafford, and he chooses Gafford although Joe has already collapsed off DJJ in the right corner to help in the paint. Luka sees Chet pick up Gafford (their spacing is bad) and decides to sort of step back to his left kind of creating contact with Dort who is basically chasing him, and in doing so he sticks his leg out on the first shot to draw FTs (If you’re sick of Jokic getting away with shit, get ready for more. Jaden or whoever guards Luka needs to be careful to avoid getting baited into fouls.)
• First halfcourt possession Dallas forces a 24 second violation. This team can defend. DJJ’s on SGA. Luka’s on Dort, Gafford on Chet, PJ on Williams, and Kyrie on Joe. Pretty predictable defensive matchups for Dallas.
• Double drag screen with Kyrie and Gafford setting picks for Luka, seemingly trying to get Gafford rolling to the basket and the defense switching onto Luka, but the initial action doesn’t seem to work. So Luka dribbles it back and Gafford comes way out near midcourt to set the pick on Luka, Chet shows, Luka easily finds Gafford who takes it into the lane and Shai’s help D isn’t big enough to stop his offensive putback of his own miss. (There’s the Gafford-Luka pick and roll again. 2 for 2. I bet we’ll see a lot of that. Probably with Jaden and Rudy on defense. Those two should be strategizing in particular how to defend that, along with the rest of the team for help D.)
• OKC pretty quickly put Jalen Williams on Doncic and Dort on Kyrie. (Should we consider switching defenders on Luka to give him different looks too? I’ll try to see how this works)
• Another Gafford pick for Luka 10 feet outside the 3 point line, Chet shows, this time leading to a Jalen Williams steal and fast break. They’re really looking to work that Gafford pick for Luka, then when Chet shows hard, Luka’s trying to find Gafford with the pass, to mixed results so far.
• Kyrie brings it up on the next possession, gets past his defender on the baseline, but Chet deters him and Kyrie is forced to pass out to DJJ, who has to make a tough catch. Luka tries to drive on two defenders and turns it over. Leads to another OKC break and a foul (PJ with two quick fouls and Green comes in). (After 3 straight Luka-Gafford pick and rolls, they go to Kyrie to try to break down his defender one-on-one. I think Q or someone else pointed out that they do seem to have a Luka’s turn, Kyrie’s turn kind of offensive approach, and that does seem to be the case. There’s no sense that they were looking for each other when they initiated the offense. Luka’s looking for Gafford on the lob or his own jumper, and Kyrie definitely seems to be looking for his own shot.)
• OKC with 8 points off turnovers early.
• Next possession, Luka with the ball, there’s no pick coming this time (a change!), but OKC doubles Luka with Joe off DJJ, right after he brings it across the halfcourt line, and Luka easily finds DJJ at the FT line, though Chet is defending the paint. It’s like OKC ran a double team and the other 3 defenders switched to a zone to protect the paint. DJJ is easily able to take a dribble into a floater from 8 feet, which he misses but draws the foul. (DJJ was super efficient in games 4 and 5). The aggressive defense for OKC seemed to backfire a little there.
• Chet tries to post up Green who has subbed in, but Green holds his ground (KAT would probably have an easier time posting him up, but Green looked solid there), and OKC swings it and gets a Dort 3.
• Next possession, Dallas gives it to Kyrie to bring up the court, again on the left side, he tries to break down Williams, gets a pick from Gafford, but Jalen fights over it and cuts Kyrie off, Gafford sets a pick on the other side, this one stops Jalen a bit better, but he gets through and now Kyrie is on the baseline again, doubled by Chet and Jalen. He’s able to get a tough pass over to DJJ who has cut to the free throw line again, but Shai blocks his floater attempt from behind about 6 feet from the basket, leading to another OKC break, but Dallas recovers quickly. (First, oh my god, we’re just a few minutes in and Gafford has set like 10 picks already! Most around or outside the 3 point line. Second, Dallas’ D is playing with energy and getting back in transition. We should still look to run when possible, but we shouldn’t be surprised if they get back.)
• OKC’s offense looks shaky, Gafford is guarding Chet at the 3 point line, and OKC seems to be trying to drive to take advantage but can’t (good D by DJJ on Shai). OKC swings it to Chet who misses a 3. Good D by Dallas. OKC is leading because of their transition buckets, not what they’re getting in the halfcourt.
• Luka brings it up this time (so that’s Luka, Luka, Luka, Kyrie, Luka, Kyrie, Luka) just to the right of the top of the key, Kyrie to the left, Green in the left corner, Gafford in the left dunker spot, and DJJ in the right corner. No pick this time. Luka’s going one on one. With Dort on him, Luka hits a tough stepback 3 with Dort contesting. Dort may have gotten his hand after the shot, Luka falls down, throws up his hands, he’s clearly upset he doesn’t get the call, but to his credit he gets up quick and gets back on D. It’s 16-9 OKC. (The last couple of games, Luka has been pretty diligent about not complaining to the refs, which makes him more focused and effective for them. It would be nice to see our D really rattle him, but we shouldn’t count on it right now. He seems focused.)
• Joe sets a pick on DJJ, who was guarding Shai, which forces the switch so Luka’s guarding SGA on the left side with everybody else on the right. Luka’s defending well for him, and cuts off an SGA attempt to drive, but SGA gets a sidestep into an open shot from the elbow which he misses. (Ant would be able to get that shot all day with Luka on him one on one and hopefully knock it down, though it wouldn’t be the highest percentage shot, and I bet Dallas would be ok giving up that shot.)
• Luka brings it up again and SGA is guarding him this time, Gafford shows pick, but slips it and SGA overcompensates to get around a pick that isn’t there so Luka has him on his back dribbling to the free throw line with Gafford rolling on his right and Chet has to choose whether to stop Luka with the ball or Gafford on the roll. He picks Luka. Meanwhile, Dort collapses to the paint to help, pulling off DJJ in the left corner. Meanwhile Jalen floats between Green at the break and DJJ in the corner while Kyrie has floated deep behind the top of the key. Seeing Chet step up to him. Luka lobs it to Gafford and Dort knocks it away. (That play happens around the 7:45 minute mark of the first quarter. If you have League Pass, watch that play. I bet the Mavs will run that a ton against us and we will need to be able to figure out how to defend it. Chet closing early enough may have forced Luka to pass the ball a little before Gafford was ready for it, and Dort was really paying attention and collapsed to help in time. After Luka had SGA beat, I think that’s about as well as you can play that. Alternately, Dort could have collapsed to stop Luka’s drive and Chet could have stayed with Gafford, but then Dort would have needed to make a play on Luka and Luka would almost certainly have swung it to DJJ in the corner and it would have tested OKC’s defensive rotations. One other way to prevent that scenario is for Luka’s on-the-ball defender to just be more aware if Gafford is slipping the screen and make sure to just stay in front of Luka. SGA is good, but I gotta think Jaden, NAW, and Ant would be better than he did on that posession, so hopefully we could prevent that situation from unfolding in the first place. It would be key for Rudy or whoever is defending Gafford to call out when the pick is coming, from where, and when there’s a slip. That communication will be key.)
• OKC gets a 3 on 2 break out of breaking up that Luka lob that leads to a Williams 3 from the left corner, but he misses it.
• Luka gives it to Kyrie as he crosses halfcourt early in the shot clock. Gafford moves like he’s going to set a pick, but doesn’t, kind of slipping it even before showing it. It looks like Kyrie might have waved him off. (So after setting several picks, he’s slipped the last two. It seems like he’s trying to basically bait Chet into showing at the level so he can roll for an open dunk, but he slips it so early Chet only hesitates. Rudy will need to be ready to read and react to Gafford’s intentions quickly. Is he setting picks or slipping?) Anyway, just after Gafford slips the fake pick, Kyrie breaks down Joe off the dribble and gets to a little jumper from 7 feet on the left side of the paint. He made that look so easy, but I gotta think our man defenders on Kyrie are going to be better than that.
• OKC runs a Jalen-Chet pick and roll going left just left of the top of the key. Chet stops Green, Jalen drives, but Gafford is right there so he takes it baseline and finds Joe in the right corner. Joe looks to shoot but Kyrie’s defense is good, so he swings it back to Williams on the right break who now has Gafford on him with 6 seconds left. Williams takes Gafford off the dribble to the left elbow and misses a tough fadeaway. Good D by Dallas.
• Luka gets another Gafford screen at the top of the key, he dribbles to the right corner, Chet stops him and Dort recovers well enough to cover Gafford as he rolls to the left side of the rim. SGA is also there. Seeing Chet on him, Luka steps back for a 3 pointer and hits it.
• DJJ guarding SGA and doing a decent job. SGA dribbles into a tough spinning turnaround on the baseline and hits it despite the solid D by DJJ. (With SGA operating more or less about 6 feet off the right baseline during that possession, all the Dallas defenders were sagging off their guys who were spread around the 3 point line. Maybe they recognized that it was a tough part of the floor for SGA to pass out of. I know I haven’t liked it as much when Ant has gone down there with the ball. But there were open passes there for SGA to hit an open guy with a quick pass that could have been an open catch and shoot 3. The closeout might have been there, but it probably would have been a better choice than a tough turnaround. Still, Dallas wasn’t giving their shooters a lot of respect. All 5 of their defenders more or less had a foot on the edge of the paint. If they do that to Ant, the shooters need to be ready to let it fly, and Ant needs to be ready to kick it quickly to the open shooters, ideally KAT or Conley.)
• Kyrie brings it up with Williams on him, Green sets a pick for him on the right side even before Luka has crossed midcourt so they are basically playing 4 on 5 here. It looks like they’re trying to get the switch to put Joe onto Kyrie, but it doesn’t work. Joe shows hard, and Williams recovers. No matter. Kyrie drives and draws the handcheck foul.
• Giddey and Jaylin Williams check in for SGA and Chet. Lively in for Gafford.
• Green sets another pick for Kyrie, but Kyrie goes away from it. Giddey is guarding Green, probably because they don’t view him as much of a threat. So it seems clear they are trying to get the switch and the mismatch so Kyrie can roast Giddey, but Kyrie doesn’t seem to be playing along! Kyrie drives, puts a hand on Williams and seems to be trying to prompt the ref to call another foul, kicks it to Green in the corner who drives baseline on Giddey, and hits a tough turnaround shot.
• Lively on Giddey.
• OKC misses a 3 but gets an offensive rebound. Joe misses a 3.
• Lively sets a pick for Luka at the logo. (Man, get ready to see a boatload of fucking picks for Luka!) Doesn’t get called for the illegal screen but should have given how wide his base was. This forces the switch. Luka hits Lively with the pass in the pant. Dort is now behind him and Giddey collapses to the paint to help. One thing OKC is doing well is collapsing the corner defenders to the paint to help in this situation. Lively immediately kicks it out to Green who Giddey just left open in the corner (which is the danger of bringing that help, and why it’s so much better if we can fight over the screen and NOT have to switch or let the big roll unguarded to the paint). Green misses the open 3.
• Joe hits a jumper over Kyrie off the rebounded missed 3 from Green. Surprisingly tricky shot.
• Kyrie with the ball, Jalen Williams still guarding him, and guess what? A pick from Lively. Jaylin (who is guarding Lively) shows hard, Kyrie hits Lively on the roll with a somewhat awkward lob entry pass. Giddey is there in the paint for the help defense. Lively has a huge length advantage, but awkwardly throws up a shot that misses almost everything. (The more I watch the more it seems like so much of our defense is going to need to figure out how to stop this pick and roll game with Luka and Gafford/Lively and the different possible open shots it could get them depending on how the play unfolds. Obviously, if whoever is guarding Luka can fight over picks and stay in front of him to prevent the drive, that is ideal. Rudy can stick with the big, and they get basically no advantage. And even if Luka gets his defender on his back and the big starts rolling to the basket, there aren’t a lot of guys I would rather have defending that situation than Rudy. But it still leaves the question of how to respond. Should we go with a drop coverage to keep Rudy as close to the rim as possible to take away the lob threat to the rolling big or stop the Luka layup? Probably, but if we do, we need to be ready to have the help defense collapse onto Luka if need be, and then to start a rotation if he’s able to kick it out to the open shooters. I know our defense is really good, but defending that play is tough, and it’s different from what we saw against either Phoenix or Denver. Alternately, should Rudy be more aggressive and try to shut down Luka and try to prevent the lob to the big, maybe even showing at the level? If we do that, then we’ll need to make sure that whoever is guarding the corner shooter collapses into the paint to break up the lob. KAT is not great at this, but he is tall. Jaden is good at it, but theoretically, he’s on Luka or Kyrie. Ant? Given how often we may need to send that help, we should think about who we put on guys like PJ, DJJ, and Green, since those guys spend most of their time in the corners or at the break, so whoever guards them is likeliest to need to bring the help D. I can see KAT on PJ and maybe Green off the bench, and Mike on DJJ. We really might want to be ready to make some adjustments to defend this. I can see SloMo potentially playing a pretty important role here actually, maybe even guarding Luka so we can have Jaden be the help defender.)
• Jaylin Williams misses a 3.
• Kyrie brings it up and again plays the two-man game with Green, seemingly trying to get Giddey switched onto him, though it doesn’t work, so he passes out of it to Luka, who whips a crazy cross-court pass to Green in the corner. Green attacks but a foul is called.
• Mavs go to a zone defense?! OKC misses a floater.
• Jaden Hardy in now brings the ball up. Guess what? Lively sets a good screen on Wallace who is guarding Hardy. Jalen Williams was guarding Lively (man, OKC is small). Williams points to Lively calling for teammate to pick him up on the roll and meantime, he steps in to stop Hardy from driving. The help comes too late. Lively catches it cleanly right under the basket and it’s an easy dunk. It’s crazy that for all the times the Mavs ran the pick and roll so far (seriously, like 75% of their possessions), that Hardy to Lively play is the first one that led to an easy dunk. Gets the crowd in it.
• Dallas back to man D? Sort of? Giddey misses a 3 badly.
• Hardy somehow drives the length off the inbounds, tries to lob it to Lively, but Lively is guarded in the dunker’s spot and doesn’t expect it. Kyrie with the ball, OKC doubles to get it out of his hands. (only the second double of the quarter). DJJ catches it wide open at the key and drives but loses the ball.
• Dallas back to what looks like a zone, but SGA hits a 3.
• A handoff from Lively to Kyrie at the 3 point line, Lively sets a ridiculously wide screen on Kyrie’s man, gets away with it, Kyrie pulls up for a tough off the dribble 3 but misses.
• Again more zone from Dallas. Lively is camping in the paint. OKC misses a shot.
• Kyrie with the ball, defended by Giddey, no pick coming (surprising), and inexplicably just passes out of it to Hardy who hoists a 3 with the closeout coming at 15 seconds on the shot clock (really terrible possession so far by Dallas), but Dallas gets the offensive board and Kyrie sets up again at the top of the key. Kyrie is guarded by ?, Giddey is on Hardy on the left, and Giddey seems to bring a soft double from the left (really dumb) leaving Hardy wide open, Kyrie passes to Hardy again in the exact same spot as last time, this time Hardy drives the open lane, Jaylin Williams has to step in to stop the ball, leaving Lively wide open under the basket, the help defense doesn’t come from the other corner shooter, and Hardy hits Lively with a perfect lob for another dunk. (Bad D by OKC, but it makes me wish we were better about using Rudy as a lob threat this way. We shouldn’t throw it to Rudy when he’s moving, but if we just toss the ball to him gently around the rim when he’s waiting for it, he should get more easy dunks.)
• Luka’s on the bench getting a knee massage.
• Dallas’ D looks to be back towards man coverage, but they seem to be ready to hand off their guy and switch often. SGA hits a shot anyway.
• Green brings the ball up, passes it to Lively, then Green immediately sets a pick for Kyrie, Kyrie takes the handoff, Green pops, Lively rolls. Kyrie finds himself with two defenders on him now—his own coming behind him and Lively’s defender (Jaylin Williams)—the defense collapses and seems to want to take away the Lively roll, so Kyrie quickly tosses it back to Green on the right 3 point line above the break, Green kicks it to Hardaway in the right corner, Hardaway launches a closely-contested three that misses badly. Terrible shot.
• Dallas back in this zone thingy. They’ve basically got Lively in the middle at the free throw line with one defender on either side of him, and then two defenders on the block, weirdly, Kyrie is one of them. They are really not a huge team. Lively is really long and tall, but after him right now, Green is their biggest guy on the floor. PJ Washington still out with those 2 fouls, and he’s got a bit more size. Green is tough, but not long. They’re just not nearly as big as Denver with MPJ and Gordon. SGA draws a foul by driving and the zone defense fouls him on the drive.
• Dallas back to man now, Chet and Luka back in the game.
• Another foul on Dallas. Hardaway over the back on a rebound. With our size, I’d like to see them foul us like that.
• Luka brings it up, passes to Lively at the top of the key, Lively looks for Kyrie to come for the handoff, he doesn’t. He pivots and looks for Luka to come for the handoff, he doesn’t! So Lively figures, what the hell, and drives it right into the lane where Chet is waiting and Chet just strips him. Wow. That’s a few just boneheaded plays Dallas has made on offense now.
• Chet takes it coast to coast, but Lively keeps up with him fairly well (dude is pretty fast for his size), and Chet kicks it to Dort for the 3 before the defense sets, but Dort misses the open shot.
• Total chaos on the next Dallas possession. Luka finds Hardaway on the left side, Hardaway drives, the defense collapses, and he kicks it out to Hardy at the 3 point line, Hardy’s driving before he catches it (he might have had an open 3 if he’d have waited), Hardy spins, finds himself in a crowd, throws it wildly to the sideline, Lively saves it, meanwhile Luka gets hit by Dort and goes down, juts absolute chaos, Hardy to Green, back to Hardy, there’s no offense here at all, Hardy almost gets picked and then inexplicably seems to throw a pass to the OKC defense waiting in the paint with 1 second on the shot clock. (Dallas, if you’d like to play like that against us, please go for it!)
• Giddey, pressured by Green, just falls over, Green gets the jump ball.
• Mavs with a chance at the last shot of the quarter, Hardy shows to set a pick for Luka but slips it and cuts towards the left break, leaving OKC doubling Luka who hits Hardy with a beautiful behind the back bounce pass, Hardy drives and gets the and 1 against Chet. Pretty nice play.
• Jalen Williams hits that halfcourt shot.