Anthony Edwards and State of the Wolves
Posted: Sat May 25, 2024 10:03 am
We just lost the first two games of the Conference Finals against the Mavs and Edwards has struggled offensively. The Mavs defense is obviously focused on him - sort of the way the Pistons targeted MJ. Remember the “Jordan Rules”? He’s still rebounded well and other that last night his passing has been good. He’s also defended well although you can’t really stop a well rested, healthy Kyrie Irving.
All that said, I think it’s really important to remember that Edwards is only 22 years with limited playoff experience playing in his first Conference Finals. The only player his age to advance beyond the Conference finals was Kobe Bryant but note that Kobe was playing with Shaq in his prime and Shaq, not Kobe, was the Lakers’ best player back then. Otherwise, consider the following playoff history of prior young stars - hall of farmers (or future hall of famers):
ISIAH THOMAS
Age 23: 1st round loss
Age 24: Conf semis loss
Age 25: 1st round loss
Age 26: Conf finals loss
Age 27: Finals Loss
Age 28: Championship
MICHAEL JORDAN
Age 22: 1st round loss
Age 23: 1st round loss
Age 24: 1st round loss
Age 25: Conf semis loss
Age 26: Conf finals loss
Age 27 Conf finals loss
Age 28: Championship
DWAYNE WADE
Age 22: Conf semis loss
Age 23: Conf finals loss
Age 24: Championship
STEPH CURRY
Age 25: Conf semis loss
Age 26: 1st round loss
Age 27: Championship
Teams whose best player is 22 years old don’t win championships; they don’t even get as far as the Conference finals. As you can see, it’s always a progression. A young star develops individually as the team around him develops and grows together. At age 22, Ant is probably at least two years, maybe 3 or 4, from being ready to lead his team to the Conference Finals and possibly a championship. And make no mistake about it, this team will NOT make the NBA finals, much less win a championship, with KAT, Rudy, Naz or Jaden as the Wolves best player. As we’ve known for some time, this is Ant’s team and KAT will never be the best player on a championship contender. Sadly KAT’s looking like he can’t be the 2nd best player on a championship contender.
One of my main arguments against the Rudy trade was that it did not align with the trajectory of Ant. What we’re seeing against Dallas (and got glimpses of against Denver) is that I was right in that respect. The Rudy trade failed to reflect Ant’s age relative to Rudy’s and overvalued KAT’s abilities. OKC performed just as well if not better than the Wolves against Dallas even though they are much younger than the Wolves overall. KAT and Rudy aren’t going to get better as their already huge salaries continue to rise and put this franchise over the 2nd apron cliff.
What we’re seeing is that the Conference Finals are another level of basketball in the NBA. It’s a level that leaves no weaknesses unexposed. We’re seeing those weaknesses. We see KAT’s low IQ and mental weakness exposed. We see Rudy’s bad hands, physical weakness and mental passivity exposed. And we see Ant’s youth exposed (Jaden’s too).
Looking ahead, I’d feel much better if we had Dereck Lively instead of Gobert as our center. I think Lively’s already better than Rudy. More importantly Dereck’s age aligns with Ant, Jaden and Naz and no doubt he’ll continue to get much better and develop with the other guys as a team without hitting a payroll threshold that forces management to take the team apart.
This has been a terrific season. The Gobert trade gave us short term pleasure and if the Wolves turn this series around it may pay off with a championship or at least a Finals appearance this season. But I see a Wolves team that has hit its ceiling and I don’t see this team going any further than Ant can take them. Ultimately, Ant needs to improve but he also needs a genuine two-way number 2 or 1B partner to grow and develop alongside him. Curry had Thompson. MJ had Pippen. Stockton had Malone. Isiah Thomas had Dumars. Bird had McHale. Magic Johnson had Worthy. Wade had Shaq. Shaq had Kobe. The list goes on. That list for the Wolves will never include KAT. It might ultimately include Jaden or Naz but the jury is out on that for now.
I’m still not sure in my own mind whether the Wolves should bring this team back as is next season in spite of the 2nd apron. As we know, cap rules won’t allow the Wolves to make any meaningful tweaks to the roster if they bring it back. Maybe Ant and Jaden can improve enough to break through the ceiling next season with KAT and Rudy. It might be worth a shot. On the other hand, perhaps it’s time to cash out on the Rudy experiment and do what we should have done to begin with: Focus entirely on building for the long term around Edwards, Jaden and Naz. It’s not an easy choice.
All that said, I think it’s really important to remember that Edwards is only 22 years with limited playoff experience playing in his first Conference Finals. The only player his age to advance beyond the Conference finals was Kobe Bryant but note that Kobe was playing with Shaq in his prime and Shaq, not Kobe, was the Lakers’ best player back then. Otherwise, consider the following playoff history of prior young stars - hall of farmers (or future hall of famers):
ISIAH THOMAS
Age 23: 1st round loss
Age 24: Conf semis loss
Age 25: 1st round loss
Age 26: Conf finals loss
Age 27: Finals Loss
Age 28: Championship
MICHAEL JORDAN
Age 22: 1st round loss
Age 23: 1st round loss
Age 24: 1st round loss
Age 25: Conf semis loss
Age 26: Conf finals loss
Age 27 Conf finals loss
Age 28: Championship
DWAYNE WADE
Age 22: Conf semis loss
Age 23: Conf finals loss
Age 24: Championship
STEPH CURRY
Age 25: Conf semis loss
Age 26: 1st round loss
Age 27: Championship
Teams whose best player is 22 years old don’t win championships; they don’t even get as far as the Conference finals. As you can see, it’s always a progression. A young star develops individually as the team around him develops and grows together. At age 22, Ant is probably at least two years, maybe 3 or 4, from being ready to lead his team to the Conference Finals and possibly a championship. And make no mistake about it, this team will NOT make the NBA finals, much less win a championship, with KAT, Rudy, Naz or Jaden as the Wolves best player. As we’ve known for some time, this is Ant’s team and KAT will never be the best player on a championship contender. Sadly KAT’s looking like he can’t be the 2nd best player on a championship contender.
One of my main arguments against the Rudy trade was that it did not align with the trajectory of Ant. What we’re seeing against Dallas (and got glimpses of against Denver) is that I was right in that respect. The Rudy trade failed to reflect Ant’s age relative to Rudy’s and overvalued KAT’s abilities. OKC performed just as well if not better than the Wolves against Dallas even though they are much younger than the Wolves overall. KAT and Rudy aren’t going to get better as their already huge salaries continue to rise and put this franchise over the 2nd apron cliff.
What we’re seeing is that the Conference Finals are another level of basketball in the NBA. It’s a level that leaves no weaknesses unexposed. We’re seeing those weaknesses. We see KAT’s low IQ and mental weakness exposed. We see Rudy’s bad hands, physical weakness and mental passivity exposed. And we see Ant’s youth exposed (Jaden’s too).
Looking ahead, I’d feel much better if we had Dereck Lively instead of Gobert as our center. I think Lively’s already better than Rudy. More importantly Dereck’s age aligns with Ant, Jaden and Naz and no doubt he’ll continue to get much better and develop with the other guys as a team without hitting a payroll threshold that forces management to take the team apart.
This has been a terrific season. The Gobert trade gave us short term pleasure and if the Wolves turn this series around it may pay off with a championship or at least a Finals appearance this season. But I see a Wolves team that has hit its ceiling and I don’t see this team going any further than Ant can take them. Ultimately, Ant needs to improve but he also needs a genuine two-way number 2 or 1B partner to grow and develop alongside him. Curry had Thompson. MJ had Pippen. Stockton had Malone. Isiah Thomas had Dumars. Bird had McHale. Magic Johnson had Worthy. Wade had Shaq. Shaq had Kobe. The list goes on. That list for the Wolves will never include KAT. It might ultimately include Jaden or Naz but the jury is out on that for now.
I’m still not sure in my own mind whether the Wolves should bring this team back as is next season in spite of the 2nd apron. As we know, cap rules won’t allow the Wolves to make any meaningful tweaks to the roster if they bring it back. Maybe Ant and Jaden can improve enough to break through the ceiling next season with KAT and Rudy. It might be worth a shot. On the other hand, perhaps it’s time to cash out on the Rudy experiment and do what we should have done to begin with: Focus entirely on building for the long term around Edwards, Jaden and Naz. It’s not an easy choice.