Minnesota Sports Forum

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:29 pm**

This summer’s draft has left no doubt that TC is pursuing a dual timetable strategy, attempting to win a championship now with Rudy and KAT at the core, while simultaneously building a Wolves version 2.0 for the future with no rebuild in between. It’s a challenging strategy to say the least in a highly competitive league with all sorts of severe transactional constraints along with financial penalties under the new CBA. But if we’ve learned anything about Tim Connelly, we’ve learned his not afraid of big challenges and he has the savvy to take on those challenges.

I thought it would be fun to start a thread devoted entirely to Wolves version 2.0 and the transition to that version over the next couple years. I’ll begin by identifying what I believe to be the core members of Wolves 2.0 in TC’s mind: (1) Edwards, (2) Jaden McDaniels, (3) Naz Reid, and (4) Dilly. No doubt NAW, TJS, Minott, Miller and Clark are all in the running to potentially be part of the next iteration of a competitive Wolves team. And of course, Dilly could falter and eventually not be part the Wolves future, which would be a big blow to TC’s plans given the lack of draft assets and limits on the trade value of KAT and Rudy. In other words, the success of TC’s dual timetable strategy will depend heavily on whether his picks this summer pan out.

Perhaps the most vexing and important questions associated with TC’s dual timetable strategy relate to the transition from the current version to the next. How and when will the transition happen? Who will remain and who will go? First of all, make no mistake about it, Ant and Jaden aren’t going anywhere and TC will pay what’s necessary to keep Naz. Given the realities of the second apron and the Wolves payroll, we know the transition will involve significant moves related to Rudy or KAT, possibly both, after next season or at least before the 2026-27 season. Keeping Rudy at anything close to his current salary and KAT beyond next season or certainly beyond the following season is untenable given the constraints of the second apron.

TC has made it clear he wants to keep Rudy. He mentioned a couple days ago that he wants the Wolves to be Rudy’s last stop in his career and that they’re discussing a possible extension beyond next season, which would obviously be at a lower annual salary. The question is whether Rudy would agree to a deal with an annual salary low enough to get and keep the Wolves below the second apron while keeping Edwards and Jaden as well as re-signing Naz. If Rudy opts in for the last year of his contract in 2025-26, the Wolves will have a payroll of $196.96 million for 10 players not counting Naz Reid who will have a player option at $15 million. So even if we let Naz go after next season, it’s a near certainty that we’ll be over the second apron, which is $188.9 million this season, unless Rudy or KAT gets dealt or Rudy extends at a huge discount.

The following season, assuming we pick up the team options on Dilly, TSJ and Miller, we’ll have a payroll of $144 million for just 6 players (KAT, Ant, Jaden, Dilly, TJS, and Miller). No Rudy, Naz, NAW, Garza, Minott, Clark, etc. That would give the Wolves about $56 million to fill out the remaining 8 roster spots and stay under what I’m assuming will be a higher $200 million second apron threshold. If you add Naz to the payroll at a bargain $26 million, we’d have around $30 million to fill out the remaining 7 roster spots. The Wolves might barely be able to squeeze in under a $200 million second apron threshold if they extend Rudy on a Mike Conley level discount that pays Rudy no more than $10 million per year and rely entirely on vet minimum players to fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

That’s a long way of saying, the transition to Wolves 2.0 after next season necessarily means one of two things: (1) trading KAT or Rudy to a team that can absorb significant salary; or (2) extending Rudy on a hugely discounted contract similar to the two year deal Mike Conley signed but probably for 5 years and a higher average annual salary. If the Wolves are content to spend two seasons over the 2nd apron, they could get below the second apron by simply letting Rudy walk. Those are the choices. The discount Rudy would have to accept to keep both him and KAT as part of Wolves 2.0 seems highly unlikely.

As we’ve discussed many times, the next version of the Wolves that TC is currently constructing probably won’t include both KAT and Rudy on the roster. It will be one, the other or neither at least by the start of the 2026-27 season. I’m guessing the Wolves will trade KAT, but I’m not certain by any stretch. Ultimately the success of Wolves 2.0 will depend on the continued development of Ant, Jaden and Naz along with Dilly and/or TSJ living up to their potential.

I have no doubt that Edwards and Naz will continue improving based on their improvement trajectory thus far. Jaden has improved, but not to the same extent as the other two. I happen to believe he’s going to take a pretty big leap forward offensively and as a rebounder over the next two years so I remain bullish on him. If you’re worried about Naz Reid’s defense, consider how far KAT has come defensively. Then think about how quick and athletic Naz is. Finally, check out this video from that great defensive quarter we had against the Nuggets in the playoffs. A big part of understanding Naz Reid’s defensive potential is accepting that he’s not a center and that playing him at that position set him up to fail defensively. In truth, Naz is more of a wing who can play PF than a PF who can play center. That’s true on both sides of the ball, but especially the defensive. So I’m bullish on all three of our young core guys. The biggest question marks for Wolves 2.0 are Dilly, TSJ, Minott, Miller and Clark. But I have to belief at least two of those five will rise to their potential.

Here’s the video: https://youtu.be/_TL6l3ai0H8

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:20 pm**

First off, I really like NAW, view him as necessary to our core 2.0, and hope we sign him to a 3-4 year extension now. I think he is that important to our team. The question is what is the right price?

The biggest question in all of this is Naz.

What do you do with him? What could he command out on the market? Would he take a discount to stay here? What is his actual potential offensively and most importantly defensively? Then there is the rebounding issue.

Will he be worth the money if he is just a 6th man big moving forward? Because currently I don't see him as a true starter at the 4 moving forward because of his consistency on defense and rebounding. Possibly at the 4 next to Rudy defensively, but Rudy won't be there forever, and definitely not next to KAT long-term. Though the ability to play 5 out with KAT on offense is tantalizing.

I thought he was rather underwhelming in the playoffs and I questioned if it was better to move him this year while his stock is so high before having to pay him the $25-30 mil you're mentioning.

It's confusing if you move Rudy, because KAT can play the 4 or 5 and you then need to look for a 4 or 5 to fit next to him which means Naz is on the bench.

If you move KAT and keep Rudy, then with Naz you're hoping he can be a starter long-term at the 4, and need to find a 5 that can replace Rudy eventually. Or Naz does not progress, you're paying him $20-30mil a year to be a 6th man, and now are looking for starters at both the 4 and 5 long-term.

I assume Rudy is getting extended at a decrease here.

So in your hypothetical, I guess to me it's bite the bullet and move Naz this year or hope that you can get a good offer for KAT this off-season and pray Naz is worth the long-term money.

I love Naz, but this off-season scares me with him. Damn player options.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:19 pm**

TheFuture wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:20 pm First off, I really like NAW, view him as necessary to our core 2.0, and hope we sign him to a 3-4 year extension now. I think he is that important to our team. The question is what is the right price?

The biggest question in all of this is Naz.

What do you do with him? What could he command out on the market? Would he take a discount to stay here? What is his actual potential offensively and most importantly defensively? Then there is the rebounding issue.

Will he be worth the money if he is just a 6th man big moving forward? Because currently I don't see him as a true starter at the 4 moving forward because of his consistency on defense and rebounding. Possibly at the 4 next to Rudy defensively, but Rudy won't be there forever, and definitely not next to KAT long-term. Though the ability to play 5 out with KAT on offense is tantalizing.

I thought he was rather underwhelming in the playoffs and I questioned if it was better to move him this year while his stock is so high before having to pay him the $25-30 mil you're mentioning.

It's confusing if you move Rudy, because KAT can play the 4 or 5 and you then need to look for a 4 or 5 to fit next to him which means Naz is on the bench.

If you move KAT and keep Rudy, then with Naz you're hoping he can be a starter long-term at the 4, and need to find a 5 that can replace Rudy eventually. Or Naz does not progress, you're paying him $20-30mil a year to be a 6th man, and now are looking for starters at both the 4 and 5 long-term.

I assume Rudy is getting extended at a decrease here.

So in your hypothetical, I guess to me it's bite the bullet and move Naz this year or hope that you can get a good offer for KAT this off-season and pray Naz is worth the long-term money.

I love Naz, but this off-season scares me with him. Damn player options.

Naz had his moments in the playoffs. I’d say that NAW was most underwhelming guy on our team throughout the playoffs. KAT and Edwards were great until the Dallas series. All our guys were underwhelming in the Dallas series. Naz is only 24 years old and has improved significantly each year. He’s oozing offensive talent. He has the quickness and athleticism of a SF and the size of a PF. His quick feet and athleticism tell me he can and likely will become a good defender. The video I posted bears that out. Heck, even KAT has become a good defender.

It will be pricy to hold onto Naz after next season but a lot cheaper than keeping KAT and a lot less than Gobert’s player option salary. If it were up to me, I’d definitely re-sign Naz to a long term deal and I think that’s exactly what TC will do. Listening to his recent interviews he consistently refers to Ant, Jaden and Naz as the team’s furniture core in so many words. If it were me, I’d try to extend Rudy at a discount low enough to get the team below the second apron even with a Naz extension. Rudy doesn’t rely on quickness or athleticism. He relies on his length, technique and IQ. So I think he’ll play at a pretty high level as a defender, rebounder and pick setter well into his 30s. KAT would be the odd man out and I’d trade him for salary savings, a role player and a couple future 1st-round picks.

Posted: **Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:44 am**

So there is so many questions going forward with this Wolves team. The big question is what is our ownership situation as soon as next year. With that said what are both ownership groups willing to spend when it comes to the Lux tax. We are seeing at this moment that Taylor at least one year is willing to pay the Lux tax. I think it is pretty easy to see that Taylor also has a "cap" on how much Lux tax he is willing to pay, the reason I say that is because we used the 37th pick to get off a salary in Moore what ended up saving approximately 2.5 million in a lux tax bill (the difference between Moore and Dozier in salary for Lux tax purposes), trading back twice in the 2nd round the Wolves acquired "cash" in the second trade what goes straight to Taylor pocket, we also acquired "cash" in the Kyle Anderson sign and trade what also goes straight to Taylor pockets. So even though Taylor is willing to go into the lux tax I am assuming he gave TC a cap on what he is allowed to spend. If that was not the case I think we would have selected with the 37th pick, I think Kyle Anderson would be back and possibly Morris. I also don't want to rip Taylor for this because the Lux tax bill is going to be around 85 million and would of been over 100 million if we would have brought Kyle back. So its hard for me to rip Taylor even though I think it is pretty obvious that TC is working with a Taylor "cap". With that said we don't know what the Lore group will look like on lux tax if they acquire the team and we don't even know if TC will be here next year if Taylor is the owner still. We also don't know if either ownership group is ok with become a repeater tax team and we don't know if the Wolves are willing to be a 2nd apron team for 3 of 5 years (if that is the case our 1st round pick in that last year 7 years out goes to the end of the draft).

Now with all that said this is where things get interesting. I disagree with you a little bit Lip that I think Ant is the only lock going forward and I think Dilly is the 2nd biggest lock just because of his cheap contract. I think for the most part Mcdaniels is safe but I am not sure just because he needs to expand his offense of game or he becomes overpaid, now if he does what he did in the playoffs consistently I think he will be around for awhile also but he is probably our best trade chip currently (Not named Ant).

I think at least one of our big 3 bigs will be gone after this year. I just don't think any of our owners want to be paying the repeater tax for multiple year. So that means one of the bigs will probably need to be gone. Now let look at our bigs. We have Kat who I believe is our second best player however I think he might be the least valuable in the trade market. This second apron really fucked Kats value, if a team is acquiring Kat he has to be their second best player on a championship team just because he makes so much and we don't know if that is the case with Kat. He becomes so expense and even though he is damn good I don't know his value around the league because where are teams going with Kat as the number 2 guy, the Wolves make the conference finals after years of drafting correctly and players had not gotten their raise yet, adding another all star around him before Kat super max kicked and was able to add another vet PG. There is a such a small window where other teams trading for Kat make sense. Rudy, I think is super valuable to the Wolves but what does Rudy look like in 3 years, I do not know, he obviously has his faults and we can say that Rudy game will translate once he gets older but Rudy was dealing with an injury in his first year and you could tell the difference in Rudys game when his athleticism was not there. Now he has a player option at the end of the year, I would love to do a short extension but I do not know where Rudy mindset is to taking less money, I will be shocked if he takes a massive paycut but we will see. We can also let Rudy walk in a year and do a reset and let Naz, Rudy and Mike all walk in 2 years (Technically Naz and Rudy can walk a year earlier) and try to reform the roster with cap space in 2 years. Now Naz this is where we really disagree, I am not paying Naz anywhere over 20 million a year to come back, way to many weakness to his game, you below average in 16 of your career 21 playoff games and the Wolves need to pay you. I hope Naz proves me wrong this year but this is his second playoffs he struggled in and outside of game 2 against Denver and game 2 against Dallas, I think those are the only 2 games he was above average and if you are paying him 25+ million a year you better be showing up in more games, he also is a below average defender, poor rebounder against size and a terrible passer. Naz is very good at putting the ball in the bucket but he struggled with that in the playoffs again what scares me putting a big financial commitment to him. We also have to remember Naz took less money to come back to the Wovles, with it being reported the Cavs offered more money, so we know TC has a price on him and didn't want to overpay him one off-season ago. Naz is such an interesting case this next season. We can't lose him because we have no way to replace him but overapaying him would be a killer, right now he is valuable because he can put the ball in the hoop but at 25 million he is a negative asset in my mind and that would kill the wolves going forward even though I like him.

Wolves need Dilly to be good and then we need at least one of TSJ, Minott, Miller to be solid, I am agree with you Lip I do not like what they did with the 2nd round this year. I am cool trading back but not taking any guy at all in the second round when the wolves will need cheap talent going forward I think is so dumb and obviously the downside is pretty low but man I would like another lotto ticket. Especially trading down so much was to save Glen money it stings a bit even though the odds of hitting on a guy are low not getting a guy in the 2nd round to a 2-way because of Glen hurts a little.

At the end of the day this team future is goes on how good Ant gets, how much does Jaden improve, is Dilly good, and if one of our inexperience players steps up. Naw will be gone in a year we need players to step up. We have to remember also that the wolves do have 1st round picks in 26,28,30 so can still add young talent then. Im cool with what they did with trading for Dilly because that 31 1st would of been frozen because of being a second apron team so its a way to get player who could help us now but also help in the future.

At the end of the day our best player is 22 years old. Should have a chance at the title this upcoming year and as long as Ant is a wolf we have a chance at winning the title. Don't screw it up whoever the owner is.

Posted: **Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:57 am**

kekgeek wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:44 am So there is so many questions going forward with this Wolves team. The big question is what is our ownership situation as soon as next year. With that said what are both ownership groups willing to spend when it comes to the Lux tax. We are seeing at this moment that Taylor at least one year is willing to pay the Lux tax. I think it is pretty easy to see that Taylor also has a "cap" on how much Lux tax he is willing to pay, the reason I say that is because we used the 37th pick to get off a salary in Moore what ended up saving approximately 2.5 million in a lux tax bill (the difference between Moore and Dozier in salary for Lux tax purposes), trading back twice in the 2nd round the Wolves acquired "cash" in the second trade what goes straight to Taylor pocket, we also acquired "cash" in the Kyle Anderson sign and trade what also goes straight to Taylor pockets. So even though Taylor is willing to go into the lux tax I am assuming he gave TC a cap on what he is allowed to spend. If that was not the case I think we would have selected with the 37th pick, I think Kyle Anderson would be back and possibly Morris. I also don't want to rip Taylor for this because the Lux tax bill is going to be around 85 million and would of been over 100 million if we would have brought Kyle back. So its hard for me to rip Taylor even though I think it is pretty obvious that TC is working with a Taylor "cap". With that said we don't know what the Lore group will look like on lux tax if they acquire the team and we don't even know if TC will be here next year if Taylor is the owner still. We also don't know if either ownership group is ok with become a repeater tax team and we don't know if the Wolves are willing to be a 2nd apron team for 3 of 5 years (if that is the case our 1st round pick in that last year 7 years out goes to the end of the draft).

Now with all that said this is where things get interesting. I disagree with you a little bit Lip that I think Ant is the only lock going forward and I think Dilly is the 2nd biggest lock just because of his cheap contract. I think for the most part Mcdaniels is safe but I am not sure just because he needs to expand his offense of game or he becomes overpaid, now if he does what he did in the playoffs consistently I think he will be around for awhile also but he is probably our best trade chip currently (Not named Ant).

I think at least one of our big 3 bigs will be gone after this year. I just don't think any of our owners want to be paying the repeater tax for multiple year. So that means one of the bigs will probably need to be gone. Now let look at our bigs. We have Kat who I believe is our second best player however I think he might be the least valuable in the trade market. This second apron really fucked Kats value, if a team is acquiring Kat he has to be their second best player on a championship team just because he makes so much and we don't know if that is the case with Kat. He becomes so expense and even though he is damn good I don't know his value around the league because where are teams going with Kat as the number 2 guy, the Wolves make the conference finals after years of drafting correctly and players had not gotten their raise yet, adding another all star around him before Kat super max kicked and was able to add another vet PG. There is a such a small window where other teams trading for Kat make sense. Rudy, I think is super valuable to the Wolves but what does Rudy look like in 3 years, I do not know, he obviously has his faults and we can say that Rudy game will translate once he gets older but Rudy was dealing with an injury in his first year and you could tell the difference in Rudys game when his athleticism was not there. Now he has a player option at the end of the year, I would love to do a short extension but I do not know where Rudy mindset is to taking less money, I will be shocked if he takes a massive paycut but we will see. We can also let Rudy walk in a year and do a reset and let Naz, Rudy and Mike all walk in 2 years (Technically Naz and Rudy can walk a year earlier) and try to reform the roster with cap space in 2 years. Now Naz this is where we really disagree, I am not paying Naz anywhere over 20 million a year to come back, way to many weakness to his game, you below average in 16 of your career 21 playoff games and the Wolves need to pay you. I hope Naz proves me wrong this year but this is his second playoffs he struggled in and outside of game 2 against Denver and game 2 against Dallas, I think those are the only 2 games he was above average and if you are paying him 25+ million a year you better be showing up in more games, he also is a below average defender, poor rebounder against size and a terrible passer. Naz is very good at putting the ball in the bucket but he struggled with that in the playoffs again what scares me putting a big financial commitment to him. We also have to remember Naz took less money to come back to the Wovles, with it being reported the Cavs offered more money, so we know TC has a price on him and didn't want to overpay him one off-season ago. Naz is such an interesting case this next season. We can't lose him because we have no way to replace him but overapaying him would be a killer, right now he is valuable because he can put the ball in the hoop but at 25 million he is a negative asset in my mind and that would kill the wolves going forward even though I like him.

Wolves need Dilly to be good and then we need at least one of TSJ, Minott, Miller to be solid, I am agree with you Lip I do not like what they did with the 2nd round this year. I am cool trading back but not taking any guy at all in the second round when the wolves will need cheap talent going forward I think is so dumb and obviously the downside is pretty low but man I would like another lotto ticket. Especially trading down so much was to save Glen money it stings a bit even though the odds of hitting on a guy are low not getting a guy in the 2nd round to a 2-way because of Glen hurts a little.

At the end of the day this team future is goes on how good Ant gets, how much does Jaden improve, is Dilly good, and if one of our inexperience players steps up. Naw will be gone in a year we need players to step up. We have to remember also that the wolves do have 1st round picks in 26,28,30 so can still add young talent then. Im cool with what they did with trading for Dilly because that 31 1st would of been frozen because of being a second apron team so its a way to get player who could help us now but also help in the future.

At the end of the day our best player is 22 years old. Should have a chance at the title this upcoming year and as long as Ant is a wolf we have a chance at winning the title. Don't screw it up whoever the owner is.

Agreed with all of this. I don't want to go over 20 for Naz either because of the same concerns. It is KAT or Naz that will be moved, and you're right that this CBA handcuffs the value on KAT. If we can extend Rudy for 3ish years at a discount, then keep KAT and net likely better value in a trade of Naz.

Jon K reported that we did receive a future 2nd from Memphis when we moved back from 53 to 57. I just can't find out what 2nd it is. Then the cash from selling 57. Like you both, I much would've taken a flyer on Cam Spencer or Kevin McCullar there at 53. Both high competitors and high floor types. Moving down from 37 to dump Moore should've been enough for Taylor's pockets.

Minnesota Sports Forum

Wolves 2.0

Wolves 2.0

Re: Wolves 2.0

Re: Wolves 2.0

Re: Wolves 2.0

Re: Wolves 2.0