Dual Timeframe Strategy
Posted: Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:05 pm
We discussed this a little in other threads, but I thought the topic deserves its own thread because. I’m not aware of another team now or in recent history that attempted to do what Tim Connelly is attempting - i.e., trying to win a championship now while keeping and continuing to build a young core for the future. Tim made building for the future much harder with his all-in move to acquire Rudy Gobert two years ago. I thought that move might signal additional moves to bring in older players to maximize the team’s chances of winning now. To his credit, TC chose another path - a dual timeline strategy. While TC was fortunate to inherit young talent in Ant, Jaden and Naz, this dual timeline strategy is still very challenging. I admire TC for taking the more challenging path in an effort to create sustainable success.
This dual timeline strategy is all about choices - difficult ones. We got a glimpse of those difficult choices in last month’s draft. Because of the cap and 2nd apron restrictions, the Wolves needed to rely on the draft to improve the team for next season, the current timeline. At the top of the list for the current timeline was getting a backup PG to play behind the 37 year old Mike Conley next season. Near the top of the list for the second timeline was getting a PG of the future to succeed Conley. In a draft that TC referred to as strong on PGs it was inevitable the Wolves would draft a PG for both timelines. TC said they liked several PGs. He also admitted second guessing himself about the Dilly pick relative to other choices. I’m nearly certain that Devin Carter was one of the others the Wolves were considering. If you’re giving equal weight to both time lines I think you go with Devin Carter - a Junior who is a two-way player with great size, athleticism and college stats as well as an NBA body. It looks like TC gave more weight to the second timeline in deciding to select the 165 pound freshman.
Dilly seems like a higher upside player than Carter but not nearly as NBA-ready. Drafting him over Carter seems like more of a second timeline move. TC had to know that he risked losing Morris by trading up to #8 for Dilly and then appropriately declaring that he expected Dilly to play. Taking that risk is another sign that TC was giving more weight to the second timeline. He was determined to make sure he came away who he thought was the highest upside PG to eventually succeed Mike Conley in the second timeline. TC and his front office staff clearly love Dilly. They obviously have information and insights into Dilly we don’t have and that leads me to trust that TC made the right choice. Then again, TC said he was second-guessing himself on the pick - perhaps thinking that Carter would have been the better choice to help next season.
The Wolves haven’t brought in any vets who we can count on for net improvement in the team. The Slo Mo/Joe Ingles swap seems like a wash to me. Otherwise, we’ll rely on rookies fresh out of college to provide that net improvement and history tells it won’t work. I thought it was telling that TC told Dan Barreiro most of the team’s improvement will come from within in the form of improvement from Ant, Jaden and Naz. No doubt TC is hoping, as we are, that Dilly or TSJ (maybe both) come through as rookies and improve the team overall. But TC is too smart to count on that happening. He knows what he’s doing. He traded the farm for Rudy and so far sees it working. He’s betting on development of our three best young guys - hoping they become the players they can be while Rudy and KAT are still here and at the top of their games.
Next summer will challenge TC’s dual window strategy even more. He’ll have to decide whether to pay what it will take to keep Naz. If he lets Naz go, that will mean more of a focus on the first window but still without transactional flexibility to improve the team via free agency or trades. If he keeps Naz, 2nd apron realities will likely force TC to move on from KAT or Rudy (maybe both) in a significant pivot towards the second window. Obviously, how the team and all these guys perform next season will factor prominently into the decisions TC makes next offseason. Depending on how things go next season, TC might have to pivot sooner by dealing a player, likely KAT or Rudy, at the February deadline.
This dual timeline strategy is all about choices - difficult ones. We got a glimpse of those difficult choices in last month’s draft. Because of the cap and 2nd apron restrictions, the Wolves needed to rely on the draft to improve the team for next season, the current timeline. At the top of the list for the current timeline was getting a backup PG to play behind the 37 year old Mike Conley next season. Near the top of the list for the second timeline was getting a PG of the future to succeed Conley. In a draft that TC referred to as strong on PGs it was inevitable the Wolves would draft a PG for both timelines. TC said they liked several PGs. He also admitted second guessing himself about the Dilly pick relative to other choices. I’m nearly certain that Devin Carter was one of the others the Wolves were considering. If you’re giving equal weight to both time lines I think you go with Devin Carter - a Junior who is a two-way player with great size, athleticism and college stats as well as an NBA body. It looks like TC gave more weight to the second timeline in deciding to select the 165 pound freshman.
Dilly seems like a higher upside player than Carter but not nearly as NBA-ready. Drafting him over Carter seems like more of a second timeline move. TC had to know that he risked losing Morris by trading up to #8 for Dilly and then appropriately declaring that he expected Dilly to play. Taking that risk is another sign that TC was giving more weight to the second timeline. He was determined to make sure he came away who he thought was the highest upside PG to eventually succeed Mike Conley in the second timeline. TC and his front office staff clearly love Dilly. They obviously have information and insights into Dilly we don’t have and that leads me to trust that TC made the right choice. Then again, TC said he was second-guessing himself on the pick - perhaps thinking that Carter would have been the better choice to help next season.
The Wolves haven’t brought in any vets who we can count on for net improvement in the team. The Slo Mo/Joe Ingles swap seems like a wash to me. Otherwise, we’ll rely on rookies fresh out of college to provide that net improvement and history tells it won’t work. I thought it was telling that TC told Dan Barreiro most of the team’s improvement will come from within in the form of improvement from Ant, Jaden and Naz. No doubt TC is hoping, as we are, that Dilly or TSJ (maybe both) come through as rookies and improve the team overall. But TC is too smart to count on that happening. He knows what he’s doing. He traded the farm for Rudy and so far sees it working. He’s betting on development of our three best young guys - hoping they become the players they can be while Rudy and KAT are still here and at the top of their games.
Next summer will challenge TC’s dual window strategy even more. He’ll have to decide whether to pay what it will take to keep Naz. If he lets Naz go, that will mean more of a focus on the first window but still without transactional flexibility to improve the team via free agency or trades. If he keeps Naz, 2nd apron realities will likely force TC to move on from KAT or Rudy (maybe both) in a significant pivot towards the second window. Obviously, how the team and all these guys perform next season will factor prominently into the decisions TC makes next offseason. Depending on how things go next season, TC might have to pivot sooner by dealing a player, likely KAT or Rudy, at the February deadline.