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Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:36 am
by Q-is-here
Here are the First 10 Games, with definitions below.
PER - Very much individual box-score driven and rewards volume more than efficiency. Doesn't really account for defense. This tends to reward higher usage offensive players and guys that get lots of counting stats.
WS/48 - Combines individual box-score stats with team performance; tends to reward efficiency as much as volume; tries to apportion team performance to individual players, so a great team defense for example tends to lift all boats (or weight them down if the defense is poor).
VORP - Value over Replacement Player. This extrapolates from box score stats and takes into account actual minutes played, so it helps recognize that starters have to carry a bigger load.
Net Rating - Team points per 100 possessions minus opponent points per 100 possessions while player is on the floor, per NBA.com.
Player - PER/WS48/VORP/Net Rating
Ant - 19.5/.117/.5/+5.9
Randle - 19.8/.179/.3/+3.1
Rudy - 16.7/.188/.2/+8.2
Jaden - 9.3/.073/-.1/-2.0
DDV - 11.7/.077/.1/+10.9
Naz - 19.3/.199/0.3/+11.5
Conley - 11.6/.098/.1/+1.4
NAW - 14.0/.148/.2//+17.6
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:47 am
by Q-is-here
A few notes...
- I highlighted in green and red the stats that stand out the most.
- We simply have to get more from Jaden besides good point of attack defense. I personally think Finch should take him off the ball handler at times and allow him to roam a bit more defensively. May be he's just getting burned out chasing these elite guards and wings all the time (?). We have other guys that can do the chasing, including Ant for spurts and NAW of course.
- For all of our complaining of Naz's defensive deficiencies, we are kicking ass when he's on the floor and he is producing big-time.
- NAW has been spectacular. I like VORP though because it recognizes that he is in a more limited role. One might say he needs more minutes based on his other advanced stats, but may be the fact he plays limited minutes helps give him the energy to produce so effectively. Either way, he has been an absolute star in his role so far.
- Ant's box score production is not even close to the other stars of the NBA. He's not even in the top 20 right now. It's mostly due to the fact that his assists, steals, and blocks are down from last season while his turnovers are up. Not a good combination to have assists go down and turnovers go up! The good news is that his shooting efficiency is easily a career best so far.
- The order of guys above are based on minutes played. You can see that even though Conley has played in every game so far, he has only played more minutes than NAW. He is a starter in name only right now and I wonder how long that lasts.
- Rudy just keeps chugging along. He is emphatically the most consistently good player on the team IMO, just like last year.
- Randle has been solid.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:20 pm
by Lipoli390
Great stuff, Q. Thanks for posting. Regarding Rudy, I think he’s having his best season as a Timberwolf so far and perhaps his best or one of the best seasons of his career. He seems better this season than last on the offensive end and some of that might be KAT’s departure. Whatever it is, as a guy who hated the Gobert trade, I’m thrilled with how Rudy is performing.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:57 pm
by FNG
I thought you'd be coming through with your 10 game stats today, Q, so I held off on my comments. But your stats support one of my biggest concerns about this team...we say that this is Ant's team, but his stats don't support it. I would venture to say that if you did this exercise with the West teams we are competing with, their superstar or superstars would not rank 4th or 5th in key measures like ws/48 and net rating. But Ant does. I mentioned this after the first game of the year against LA...they have true superstars, and we only have a guy with potential to be a true superstar.
So I looked at offensive and defensive ratings on Basketball Reference.com, and compared Ant to the most important player on each of the teams we are competing with. Ant has both an offensive rating and defensive rating of 111...not bad for a journeyman or role player, but far short of what we need our most important player to have. Now, here are the numbers for the most important player on each of our competitors.
SGA: 117, 101
Joker: 134,111
Curry: 120, 106
Davis: 128, 111
Kawhi: 124-114
Booker: 121, 116
The two competitors that look more like Ant are:
Ja Morant: 111-110 I'm not surprised because I lump Ant together with Ja...2 remarkably talented players who haven't shown the consistency at both ends of the court to be true winner. And,
Luka on Dallas: 111-110. But I would argue that he and Kyrie are really 1a and 1b, and Kyrie is 132,111.
Fortunately, we have a deeper team than our competitors with 8 real starters, so not having a superstar leading the team in stats isn't as devastating for us as it might be for a less deep team. But I still think it's a concern...I would feel more comfortable calling us a true contender if our face of the franchise didn't rank in the middle of the team pack in some important measures.
We saw it last night...it's his head. He wasn't supposed to take the ball out in that last fateful possession, but he did. Could you see any of the players listed above making such a bonehead move?
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:25 pm
by Q-is-here
FNG, Ant is definitely not playing like a superstar. He is often perceived as one because he can be a homerun hitter at times with his highlight plays and scoring runs he goes on. But when you add it all up, he just doesn't consistently produce the all-around numbers other top players do.
One exception would be the first half of last year's playoffs. He was the second best player in the Playoffs (after Jokic) until he started to tail off late in the Denver series and then had a mediocre Dallas series. So he has the potential to elevate further.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:59 pm
by rapsuperstar31
FNG wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:57 pm
I thought you'd be coming through with your 10 game stats today, Q, so I held off on my comments. But your stats support one of my biggest concerns about this team...we say that this is Ant's team, but his stats don't support it. I would venture to say that if you did this exercise with the West teams we are competing with, their superstar or superstars would not rank 4th or 5th in key measures like ws/48 and net rating. But Ant does. I mentioned this after the first game of the year against LA...they have true superstars, and we only have a guy with potential to be a true superstar.
So I looked at offensive and defensive ratings on Basketball Reference.com, and compared Ant to the most important player on each of the teams we are competing with. Ant has both an offensive rating and defensive rating of 111...not bad for a journeyman or role player, but far short of what we need our most important player to have. Now, here are the numbers for the most important player on each of our competitors.
SGA: 117, 101
Joker: 134,111
Curry: 120, 106
Davis: 128, 111
Kawhi: 124-114
Booker: 121, 116
The two competitors that look more like Ant are:
Ja Morant: 111-110 I'm not surprised because I lump Ant together with Ja...2 remarkably talented players who haven't shown the consistency at both ends of the court to be true winner. And,
Luka on Dallas: 111-110. But I would argue that he and Kyrie are really 1a and 1b, and Kyrie is 132,111.
Fortunately, we have a deeper team than our competitors with 8 real starters, so not having a superstar leading the team in stats isn't as devastating for us as it might be for a less deep team. But I still think it's a concern...I would feel more comfortable calling us a true contender if our face of the franchise didn't rank in the middle of the team pack in some important measures.
We saw it last night...it's his head. He wasn't supposed to take the ball out in that last fateful possession, but he did. Could you see any of the players listed above making such a bonehead move?
SGA is 3 years older than Ant and Ant has gone further in the playoffs than SGA has. Joker is 6.5 years older than Ant and won his first title at 28 years old and didn't make the playoffs until his 4th season in the league. Davis is 8.5 years older than Ant, had to team up with Lebron James (one of the two best players in NBA history) to win a title at 27 years old and only played in 13 playoff games in his first 7 seasons. Kawhi is a superstar robbed by injuries I won't argue him. Booker is 5 years older than Ant, has made it one round further than Ant to the finals and he didn't even make the playoffs until his 6th season and it's been downhill ever since their Finals run playoff wise. Bonus Kevin Garnett was listed as the 17th best player in NBA history a few years ago. Kevin Garnett lead us out of the first round of the playoffs once in his first 12 season stint here. He made the WCF here when he was 28 years old. Bonus Bonus Michael Jordan won his first title at 27 years old.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 9:33 am
by FNG
rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:59 pm
FNG wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:57 pm
I thought you'd be coming through with your 10 game stats today, Q, so I held off on my comments. But your stats support one of my biggest concerns about this team...we say that this is Ant's team, but his stats don't support it. I would venture to say that if you did this exercise with the West teams we are competing with, their superstar or superstars would not rank 4th or 5th in key measures like ws/48 and net rating. But Ant does. I mentioned this after the first game of the year against LA...they have true superstars, and we only have a guy with potential to be a true superstar.
So I looked at offensive and defensive ratings on Basketball Reference.com, and compared Ant to the most important player on each of the teams we are competing with. Ant has both an offensive rating and defensive rating of 111...not bad for a journeyman or role player, but far short of what we need our most important player to have. Now, here are the numbers for the most important player on each of our competitors.
SGA: 117, 101
Joker: 134,111
Curry: 120, 106
Davis: 128, 111
Kawhi: 124-114
Booker: 121, 116
The two competitors that look more like Ant are:
Ja Morant: 111-110 I'm not surprised because I lump Ant together with Ja...2 remarkably talented players who haven't shown the consistency at both ends of the court to be true winner. And,
Luka on Dallas: 111-110. But I would argue that he and Kyrie are really 1a and 1b, and Kyrie is 132,111.
Fortunately, we have a deeper team than our competitors with 8 real starters, so not having a superstar leading the team in stats isn't as devastating for us as it might be for a less deep team. But I still think it's a concern...I would feel more comfortable calling us a true contender if our face of the franchise didn't rank in the middle of the team pack in some important measures.
We saw it last night...it's his head. He wasn't supposed to take the ball out in that last fateful possession, but he did. Could you see any of the players listed above making such a bonehead move?
SGA is 3 years older than Ant and Ant has gone further in the playoffs than SGA has. Joker is 6.5 years older than Ant and won his first title at 28 years old and didn't make the playoffs until his 4th season in the league. Davis is 8.5 years older than Ant, had to team up with Lebron James (one of the two best players in NBA history) to win a title at 27 years old and only played in 13 playoff games in his first 7 seasons. Kawhi is a superstar robbed by injuries I won't argue him. Booker is 5 years older than Ant, has made it one round further than Ant to the finals and he didn't even make the playoffs until his 6th season and it's been downhill ever since their Finals run playoff wise. Bonus Kevin Garnett was listed as the 17th best player in NBA history a few years ago. Kevin Garnett lead us out of the first round of the playoffs once in his first 12 season stint here. He made the WCF here when he was 28 years old. Bonus Bonus Michael Jordan won his first title at 27 years old.
That is a great point, Rap. SGA, for instance, did not have very impressive stats the year he was 23, but then made a giant leap when he turned 24...and he has been great ever since. It would be great if Ant could make the same leap, because I would argue he is every bit as talented as SGA...maybe even more so. I guess I'm not that optimistic though. I see a big difference in demeanor between 23 year old Ant and the 23 year old version of the other guys in this thread. I think Ant will continue to be a high-scoring, entertaining popular player, whose inconsistency in attitude and behavior prevents him from reaching the heights of those other guys. I hope I am wrong though.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:22 am
by Wolvesfan21
Looking as to why Ants stats are not elite of elite right now. We got two new rotation players making Ants job along with others more difficult to adjust to. Turnovers for instance should go down as the season goes on and his career goes on obviously. Just last year did Ant really start to become a better playmaker. It's still a work in progress and I've seen very good progress at times.
Ant does seem to not take regular season games and especially against many lesser opponents that seriously. Just look to how we went from getting swept by the Suns to sweeping them when it really mattered. It is what it is.
We're 10 games in to a new team and new season. I'm not concerned. Guys will start to step up around Ant (Ant missing assists and forcing turnovers) and Ant will keep adjusting to his new teammates.
Oh and Ant is only 23 and still has a ton of room to grow this year and for many years to come. It's a great thing where he is at right now. Sure we wish he could be a better team defender with LeBrons passing at 23. But he's actually in a great spot overall in his trajectory.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:53 am
by FNG
Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:22 am
Looking as to why Ants stats are not elite of elite right now. We got two new rotation players making Ants job along with others more difficult to adjust to. Turnovers for instance should go down as the season goes on and his career goes on obviously. Just last year did Ant really start to become a better playmaker. It's still a work in progress and I've seen very good progress at times.
Ant does seem to not take regular season games and especially against many lesser opponents that seriously. Just look to how we went from getting swept by the Suns to sweeping them when it really mattered. It is what it is.
We're 10 games in to a new team and new season. I'm not concerned. Guys will start to step up around Ant (Ant missing assists and forcing turnovers) and Ant will keep adjusting to his new teammates.
Oh and Ant is only 23 and still has a ton of room to grow this year and for many years to come. It's a great thing where he is at right now. Sure we wish he could be a better team defender with LeBrons passing at 23. But he's actually in a great spot overall in his trajectory.
I'm also optimistic about this Wolves team, WF, even while being discouraged about Ant's overall game. I see us as a team that looks more like Cleveland (well, Cleveland light perhaps...they look really good)...a team with great depth that doesn't rely on one superstar for its success like most of the other teams in the league. If Cleveland lost any one of its starters for a period of time, I think they would still be a pretty good team. Contrast that with a Denver team without Jokic or an OkC team without SGA...I think they would both struggle. Despite Ant's terrific scoring, I don't know that we would be that much worse if DiVo replaced him in the starting lineup for a few games. I do think we would struggle though if we lost Rudy. Perhaps I'm mislabeling Ant as our most important player...my sense is that we are only a .500 team if we lost Rudy.
Re: Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 4:27 pm
by Wolvesfan21
FNG wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:53 am
Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:22 am
Looking as to why Ants stats are not elite of elite right now. We got two new rotation players making Ants job along with others more difficult to adjust to. Turnovers for instance should go down as the season goes on and his career goes on obviously. Just last year did Ant really start to become a better playmaker. It's still a work in progress and I've seen very good progress at times.
Ant does seem to not take regular season games and especially against many lesser opponents that seriously. Just look to how we went from getting swept by the Suns to sweeping them when it really mattered. It is what it is.
We're 10 games in to a new team and new season. I'm not concerned. Guys will start to step up around Ant (Ant missing assists and forcing turnovers) and Ant will keep adjusting to his new teammates.
Oh and Ant is only 23 and still has a ton of room to grow this year and for many years to come. It's a great thing where he is at right now. Sure we wish he could be a better team defender with LeBrons passing at 23. But he's actually in a great spot overall in his trajectory.
I'm also optimistic about this Wolves team, WF, even while being discouraged about Ant's overall game. I see us as a team that looks more like Cleveland (well, Cleveland light perhaps...they look really good)...a team with great depth that doesn't rely on one superstar for its success like most of the other teams in the league. If Cleveland lost any one of its starters for a period of time, I think they would still be a pretty good team. Contrast that with a Denver team without Jokic or an OkC team without SGA...I think they would both struggle. Despite Ant's terrific scoring, I don't know that we would be that much worse if DiVo replaced him in the starting lineup for a few games. I do think we would struggle though if we lost Rudy. Perhaps I'm mislabeling Ant as our most important player...my sense is that we are only a .500 team if we lost Rudy.
I don't think we could survive on defense at all with Garza playing the 5 for multiple games, or Randle starting at the 5 and playing really small (Naz playing the backup 5 minutes). Once we traded KAT our center depth became a weakness, so I agree with you also. If we had a decent replacement 5 (defender) then I think we could survive a Rudy injury OK.
We could be a gunning team on offense, but man. I think a Rudy injury could hurt bad (knock on wood). I really think both Garza and Naz are better long term as 4's anyways. They simply don't have the skillset or size to defend the rim. We ideally try and add a backup defending 5 at some point I think this year, just in case of injury and for more flexibility for certain teams.