Minnesota Sports Forum

Even though this shouldn't be a serious question, it is.

I'm actually voting Ant here.

In order for me to enjoy watching the playoffs, I'm just going to accept that the Lakers are going to get a fairly generous whistle and whoever plays them (starting with us) will just need to overcome it, which can be done.

One thing to note is that since AD was traded away, the Lakers are 22nd in how many FTAs their opponent takes (with #1 being the fewest opponent FTAs). The reason is that the bigs they use in AD's place, who averaged only 2.0 PFs per game, commit a lot more fouls than he did....even though they are wearing a Laker uniform.

So while they still take a lot of FTAs, they give up quite a few too.

Fun fact the most FT attempts per game Reeves has ever taken in the playoffs was last playoffs 3.8 attempts a game and he played plenty of minutes both playoff runs. Edwards lowest playoffs FT per game average is 5.7 per game his first playoffs during his 2nd year in the league at the age of 20. I'll put my money on Edwards.

I've posted previously about how the Timberwolves have won fewer games than the Expected W/L total. Let's compare the Timberwolves to the Lakers:

Timberwolves
- The Wolves have won more games than expected only once since the 2007 season (+1 in '23).
- Overall, they are -51. That's worst in the league and quite the statistical anomaly. Obviously.
- The Wolves are -4 this season.

Lakers
- The Lakers have not won fewer than the Expected W/L total since the 2018 season.
- Just counting the Lebron James era... the Lakers are +16.
- The Lakers are +6 this season and were +5 last season.

Like the free throw stuff... are these meaningless stats... coincidences... impact of smart players like LeBron... something else?

It's not necessarily the volume of free throws that will be the Wolves problem. It's more when the disparity occurs and how crucial the moment is. Pay attention to the last 4 minutes of each game. That's when the Lakers are going to get the 50/50 calls. It's really not hard to fix an NBA game, it only takes a couple key sequences at the most opportune moments. People think the refs have to be on one team from the opening tap to affect a game, that's not true. Tim Donaghy understood this and made a lot of money from it.

The real question, will Luka or Lebron average more than the entire Wolves squad.

DNatagal wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 7:07 pm The real question, will Luka or Lebron average more than the entire Wolves squad.

The Lakers have had some remarkable, unprecedented free throw disparity seasons, both recently and in the past. Like last year when they had more FTAs than their opponents in 51 of 55 games in one stretch.

But it's not always because of them getting to the line. Often, it's because they're fouling opponents less often.

AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 7:55 pm

DNatagal wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 7:07 pm The real question, will Luka or Lebron average more than the entire Wolves squad.

The Lakers have had some remarkable, unprecedented free throw disparity seasons, both recently and in the past. Like last year when they had more FTAs than their opponents in 51 of 55 games in one stretch.

But it's not always because of them getting to the line. Often, it's because they're fouling opponents less often.

Yeah, I think the right approach if you are Finch & Co. is to go in with the assumption that the Lakers will get a very favorable whistle and so the Wolves simply aren't going to win games based on FTAs. But there are still factors like turnover differential, rebounds, and taking good shots that are more in their direct control.

Or the Wolves need to play defense like OKC, foul on every play and force the refs to make every call! Throw every body at Luka, play some junk zones, let NAW and Jaden play single man, no help defense and gum things up. At least for a few minutes to keep things interesting. Play the same defense for 12 minutes straight and Luka will pick a team apart.

DNatagal wrote: ↑Tue Apr 15, 2025 8:32 am Or the Wolves need to play defense like OKC, foul on every play and force the refs to make every call! Throw every body at Luka, play some junk zones, let NAW and Jaden play single man, no help defense and gum things up. At least for a few minutes to keep things interesting. Play the same defense for 12 minutes straight and Luka will pick a team apart.

One of the reasons the Wolves lost to Dallas was they had problems scoring at times which was an issue in the Denver series as well. Dallas had something to do with that but it was a bit of an issue for the Wolves all year. Do they have a better collective group this year plus the Lakers I would assume defensively are nowhere near the Group Dallas had down the stretch and in the playoffs defensively. Some of the Wolves defenders needed to play smarter. Luka was really good but it also felt like they didn't have an answer for Kyrie.