Why I'm worried about Game 2 (not the GDT!)
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2025 2:59 pm
A win tonight would be huge...it would start to look a lot like the Suns series last year. But this one is going to be very tough I think for several reasons:
1) Teams heavily favored to win the series seldom lose the first two games at home. The Lakers are going to come into tonight's game feeling desperate, and are going to give it 100%
2) The Wolves are a weird team...they play very well when they're not expected to, and not well at all when they're feeling cocky. They said all the right things post-game, but I'm guessing they're coming into this game feeling maybe a little too confident.
3) There's a reason the Lakers had one of the best home records this season...it's a distracting place to play. I lived in LA for three years a decade ago and went to every Wolves game against the Lakers and Clippers, and I can tell you it's like no other arena. Not because the crowds are loud...they're not. But literally every time you turn your head, you see another celebrity. Oh look, there's the greatest music producer of all time, Lou Adler...why isn't his best friend Jack Nicholson here with him? I recognize her...she used to be married to Warren Beatty. What's her name again? Whoa...that's Jack Black in the 4th row. Why can't he get better seats? (That's what Ju was thinking in the first quarter right before he airmailed a pass to him). You try to notice, but you can't help yourself.
4) While the margin of victory was wide, there were sub very abhorrent numbers that are likely to revert to the mean tonight. We were proud of holding Luka to only 1 assist, and LeBron, Reaves and him to only 7 total. But I didn't even know "potential assists" was a stat, but it is...and usually teams convert over 50% of their potential assist. But the Lakers converted only 7 of 24 potential assists. Progressing to the mean gives them another 10 points.
5) The Wolves shot the lights out on 3's...that's good. But I heard on Dane Moore's broadcast today that they made something like 75% of their open 3's...25 percentage points than their season average. Maybe they can do it again, but we all know it's tough to fight stats. With his characteristic lack of humility, Reddick said there was nothing wrong with the game plan of keeping a tight shell to prevent Ant and others from getting to the basket (translation, it was the players' fault, not mine). He may be right. I don't know that we will see much different in the Laker's defensive scheme tonight. We just have to make those open shots again.
OK Wolves, now prove me wrong...
1) Teams heavily favored to win the series seldom lose the first two games at home. The Lakers are going to come into tonight's game feeling desperate, and are going to give it 100%
2) The Wolves are a weird team...they play very well when they're not expected to, and not well at all when they're feeling cocky. They said all the right things post-game, but I'm guessing they're coming into this game feeling maybe a little too confident.
3) There's a reason the Lakers had one of the best home records this season...it's a distracting place to play. I lived in LA for three years a decade ago and went to every Wolves game against the Lakers and Clippers, and I can tell you it's like no other arena. Not because the crowds are loud...they're not. But literally every time you turn your head, you see another celebrity. Oh look, there's the greatest music producer of all time, Lou Adler...why isn't his best friend Jack Nicholson here with him? I recognize her...she used to be married to Warren Beatty. What's her name again? Whoa...that's Jack Black in the 4th row. Why can't he get better seats? (That's what Ju was thinking in the first quarter right before he airmailed a pass to him). You try to notice, but you can't help yourself.
4) While the margin of victory was wide, there were sub very abhorrent numbers that are likely to revert to the mean tonight. We were proud of holding Luka to only 1 assist, and LeBron, Reaves and him to only 7 total. But I didn't even know "potential assists" was a stat, but it is...and usually teams convert over 50% of their potential assist. But the Lakers converted only 7 of 24 potential assists. Progressing to the mean gives them another 10 points.
5) The Wolves shot the lights out on 3's...that's good. But I heard on Dane Moore's broadcast today that they made something like 75% of their open 3's...25 percentage points than their season average. Maybe they can do it again, but we all know it's tough to fight stats. With his characteristic lack of humility, Reddick said there was nothing wrong with the game plan of keeping a tight shell to prevent Ant and others from getting to the basket (translation, it was the players' fault, not mine). He may be right. I don't know that we will see much different in the Laker's defensive scheme tonight. We just have to make those open shots again.
OK Wolves, now prove me wrong...