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Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 1:45 pm
by FNG
Now that we're more than a quarter the way through the season, lineup data starts to have more validity. We've talked in some of the GDTs about how the zone is helping in non-Rudy minutes, and I just noticed surprisingly favorable stats for the lineup that played so well at the end of the game last night.
Ju, Naz, Jaden, Ant and Donte have only played together 33 minutes, but they have an ORtg of137.8 and a DRtg of 107.1! Playing a lot of zone makes them quite effective even without Rudy (although sometimes Ant looks like he doesn't know what a zone defense is!), and they are also our most dynamic offensive players, so the gaudy ORtg makes sense. The Pels are not a great 3-point shooting team, so we don't know if a zone with these 5 guys will always be effective. But I'd like to see it more to see if this is the answer to the non-Rudy problem.
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 2:05 pm
by 60WinTim
It is an interesting development!
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 4:57 pm
by AussieWolf3
Thanks for pulling this data! I was curious about it myself, so you saved me some work lol
My question is if they can build on this and evolve it past just a zone look?
Can it be a hybrid coverage or more of a gap defense?
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:17 pm
by AussieWolf3
I've been thinking about this a lot today- what it means for Wolves and what it means for Rudy.
This lineup hasn't played enough minutes together to make any declarative statements or decisions... Yet
In my opinion, there are two problems facing the team right now and, quite honestly, their future with Ant and Jaden.
1) they are an incongruent team, that does not know who they are- this is a Jake Paynting take but I agree with it.
2) there are only 6 and half good players on this team, the lack of depth is a big problem.
Like most I've thought that the root cause of problem number 1 has been Randle, but what if it's Rudy?
This isn't a referendum on whether Rudy is a good or impactful player. His value to the team is enormous. However, watching that 5 man lineup of Jaden, Randle, Naz, Dante and Ant.... That's not an incongruent group of guys and is not without an identity, cause they know they can light you the hell up.
Problem is you still need a real center and I just wonder if constantly toggling between Rudy's style and this units style (more recently) and Randle's style throughout most of the season is a part of this teams inconsistency?
Can they transmute some combination of Rudy, Beringer, Dilly and Shannon into a more versatile center and more reliable depth?
I don't know if such players are gettable, but I know a lot of people are looking at the Hawks as a factor in the Gannis trade rumors. Their backup center is a kid named Onyeka Okongwu. 24 years old and a rising two way player who can shoot.
Atlanta no doubt wants to keep him but, they'll have to give up a lot to get Gannis. Kristaps is also the perfect center to pair with Gannis.
I won't do any trade simulations here, it's the wrong thread and I'm no good at it. I'm just wondering if maybe the path to opening things up for this team is to move Rudy. I'm not sure but I'm giving it a lot of thought at the moment.
Curious what others think
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:18 pm
by Q-is-here
FNG wrote: ↑Fri Dec 05, 2025 1:45 pm
Now that we're more than a quarter the way through the season, lineup data starts to have more validity. We've talked in some of the GDTs about how the zone is helping in non-Rudy minutes, and I just noticed surprisingly favorable stats for the lineup that played so well at the end of the game last night.
Ju, Naz, Jaden, Ant and Donte have only played together 33 minutes, but they have an ORtg of137.8 and a DRtg of 107.1! Playing a lot of zone makes them quite effective even without Rudy (although sometimes Ant looks like he doesn't know what a zone defense is!), and they are also our most dynamic offensive players, so the gaudy ORtg makes sense. The Pels are not a great 3-point shooting team, so we don't know if a zone with these 5 guys will always be effective. But I'd like to see it more to see if this is the answer to the non-Rudy problem.
Now replace Ant with Conley and in 23 minutes they have an Ortg of 150 and a Drtg of 100! A lot of that is puffed up by the big 4th quarter against San Antonio the other night where those five absolutely dominated using a zone defense.
And remember this from last season?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5QO8Em-KXQ
That 16-0 run against OKC had Jaden, Naz, Naw, Dilly, and Shannon playing a....you guessed it.....zone defense. And the lineup the Thunder had wasn't a bunch of scrubs! It was the core of their rotation minus the bigs.
While it's true the Wolves can't just automatically go to a zone everytime Rudy sits, it's also true that it shouldn't be treated as some sort of rare piece of artwork hardly ever put on display in public.
Kudos to the coaching staff for finding something that might work in the non-Rudy minutes defensively. Offensively it makes it really hard for the opposing team to provide a lot of help defense, as everyone can either shoot or get to the rim. We need a larger sample size but the early returns are promising!
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:31 pm
by 60WinTim
Because it's plain to see that integrating Rudy is a long and tedious process, I am not sure he has much of a positive value in the trade market. We have him for the duration of his contract. Which is not a bad thing.
And if the Wolves are able to make something of the non-Rudy minutes, that gives them a lot of flexibility based on matchups. A team without much size might have Rudy play less than 30 minutes, such as last night. But other times, Rudy will see well over 30 minutes. It's great to have the option to play either way.
I get down on our non-Rudy rim protection and rebounding. But both Randle and NAZ have their positives that would be difficult to replace. The best case scenario is we find/develop a 4th big that can compliment that trio. In some ways, Jaden is already assuming some of that role. This is once against a work in progress, as ANT develops his PG skills, and the coaching staff learns how to mix and match the trio of bigs.
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:10 pm
by Q-is-here
AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:17 pm
I've been thinking about this a lot today- what it means for Wolves and what it means for Rudy.
This lineup hasn't played enough minutes together to make any declarative statements or decisions... Yet
In my opinion, there are two problems facing the team right now and, quite honestly, their future with Ant and Jaden.
1) they are an incongruent team, that does not know who they are- this is a Jake Paynting take but I agree with it.
2) there are only 6 and half good players on this team, the lack of depth is a big problem.
Like most I've thought that the root cause of problem number 1 has been Randle, but what if it's Rudy?
This isn't a referendum on whether Rudy is a good or impactful player. His value to the team is enormous. However, watching that 5 man lineup of Jaden, Randle, Naz, Dante and Ant.... That's not an incongruent group of guys and is not without an identity, cause they know they can light you the hell up.
Problem is you still need a real center and I just wonder if constantly toggling between Rudy's style and this units style (more recently) and Randle's style throughout most of the season is a part of this teams inconsistency?
Can they transmute some combination of Rudy, Beringer, Dilly and Shannon into a more versatile center and more reliable depth?
I don't know if such players are gettable, but I know a lot of people are looking at the Hawks as a factor in the Gannis trade rumors. Their backup center is a kid named Onyeka Okongwu. 24 years old and a rising two way player who can shoot.
Atlanta no doubt wants to keep him but, they'll have to give up a lot to get Gannis. Kristaps is also the perfect center to pair with Gannis.
I won't do any trade simulations here, it's the wrong thread and I'm no good at it. I'm just wondering if maybe the path to opening things up for this team is to move Rudy. I'm not sure but I'm giving it a lot of thought at the moment.
Curious what others think
I think as long as we are competing for a top 6 seed no big trades are going to happen. Now if things start to fall apart and our inconsistency drags us into play-in territory where the 6th seed (or higher) is starting to look out of reach, I expect Connelly to be working the phones. Same thing this offseason if we flame out again in the WCF or earlier.
Re: Lineup data
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:36 pm
by AussieWolf3
Q-is-here wrote: ↑Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:10 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:17 pm
I've been thinking about this a lot today- what it means for Wolves and what it means for Rudy.
This lineup hasn't played enough minutes together to make any declarative statements or decisions... Yet
In my opinion, there are two problems facing the team right now and, quite honestly, their future with Ant and Jaden.
1) they are an incongruent team, that does not know who they are- this is a Jake Paynting take but I agree with it.
2) there are only 6 and half good players on this team, the lack of depth is a big problem.
Like most I've thought that the root cause of problem number 1 has been Randle, but what if it's Rudy?
This isn't a referendum on whether Rudy is a good or impactful player. His value to the team is enormous. However, watching that 5 man lineup of Jaden, Randle, Naz, Dante and Ant.... That's not an incongruent group of guys and is not without an identity, cause they know they can light you the hell up.
Problem is you still need a real center and I just wonder if constantly toggling between Rudy's style and this units style (more recently) and Randle's style throughout most of the season is a part of this teams inconsistency?
Can they transmute some combination of Rudy, Beringer, Dilly and Shannon into a more versatile center and more reliable depth?
I don't know if such players are gettable, but I know a lot of people are looking at the Hawks as a factor in the Gannis trade rumors. Their backup center is a kid named Onyeka Okongwu. 24 years old and a rising two way player who can shoot.
Atlanta no doubt wants to keep him but, they'll have to give up a lot to get Gannis. Kristaps is also the perfect center to pair with Gannis.
I won't do any trade simulations here, it's the wrong thread and I'm no good at it. I'm just wondering if maybe the path to opening things up for this team is to move Rudy. I'm not sure but I'm giving it a lot of thought at the moment.
Curious what others think
I think as long as we are competing for a top 6 seed no big trades are going to happen. Now if things start to fall apart and our inconsistency drags us into play-in territory where the 6th seed (or higher) is starting to look out of reach, I expect Connelly to be working the phones. Same thing this offseason if we flame out again in the WCF or earlier.
I think you're right, although I think there's a good chance that a trade of some sort happens unless Rob or Shannon turn into all stars over the next month. Probably a lower level trade tho.
But I'm not necessarily looking at this from a trade perspective, but rather what does this is team look like if it's maximized around Jaden and Ant, or at least attempts to maximize---- I don't think it includes Rudy, but it could include Randle I guess is my point