Minnesota Sports Forum

All Star weekend is usually when I begin to think about playoff positioning with respect to the Wolves. Well at least the past few years...before that we weren't really relevant for a couple decades. So laid up at home with a cold, I put together a spreadsheet forecasting where I think teams currently 2-7 in the standings will finish. Why 2-7? Because a quick look at OkC told me they are going to finish far ahead of the pack and not worth tracking...if things change, I'll add them to the spreadsheet, but I don't see the Spurs making up 6 games, even though they are only 3 out currently. And I'm excluding 8th place Golden State because I don't see them challenging the top 7. I expect Tim to add his Klunk-o-Meter to this thread in between trips to places like Tuvalu and Nauru...the boy really needs to get out more...so we have another forecast to compare.

So what did I find? First, I don't expect to have the logjam in the standings top to bottom we have had the past few years...there is more spacing at the top based on my first pass. Second, the Wolves have some work to do...I have them in 6th (losing a tiebreaker to Houston) just a game ahead of 7th and the dreaded play in...surprising to me, and a little scary.

So, here is my first pass. I'll update this every few days, and especially if there are key injuries.

OkC 64
Spurs 58
Nuggets 54
Lakers 51
Houston 50
Wolves 50
Suns 49

So a lot of spacing 1 through 4, but then very tight 4 through 7. The Wolves are just one game out of getting home court in the first round, and one game out of falling into the play in! Let's see how this plays out.

From everything I can tell the Wolves would have to pull off something rather spectacular to finish with enough wins for the 3rd seed, something like 21 and 5- an .800 record.
Mathematically their most likely win total is no higher than 52 which might be good enough for home court, which would be good imo, and probably sets them up for a first round rematch with the Lakers

San Antonio
OKC
Denver
Minnesota
Houston
Suns
Lakers

Minnesota and Houston might swap but both in the 4/5. Minnesota gets San Antonio in the 2nd round.

For whatever it's worth the team had a 138 win percentage jump pre all star vs post all star.

The same jump would give them 19.4 wins over the final section of the season and a 53.4 finish.

The poor effort games this year have really cost them

I think you need to re-calibrate your spreadsheet, FNG! Not only does it need to factor in ANT's All-Star MVP, but what about the Wolves being the only team to make a significant upgrade (although the Lakers and Suns made a couple additions/swaps). Plus what about the significant injuries hitting the Thunder and Nuggets right now?

I did make a first pass at the KOM. The Spurs and OKC were tied at 63 (a far cry from OKC's 68 wins last season). Like you, the Wolves were in 6th place, a game ahead of the Suns. But when I take into account some of these new factors, the Wolves vault into 3rd place by a decent margin. OKC and the Spurs are still comfortably at the top.

Anyway, we clearly need the Wolves to stack wins coming out of the All-Star break...

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sun Feb 15, 2026 10:05 pm I think you need to re-calibrate your spreadsheet, FNG! Not only does it need to factor in ANT's All-Star MVP, but what about the Wolves being the only team to make a significant upgrade (although the Lakers and Suns made a couple additions/swaps). Plus what about the significant injuries hitting the Thunder and Nuggets right now?

I did make a first pass at the KOM. The Spurs and OKC were tied at 63 (a far cry from OKC's 68 wins last season). Like you, the Wolves were in 6th place, a game ahead of the Suns. But when I take into account some of these new factors, the Wolves vault into 3rd place by a decent margin. OKC and the Spurs are still comfortably at the top.

Anyway, we clearly need the Wolves to stack wins coming out of the All-Star break...

You have the Spurs going 25-3 the rest of the season??? Unlikely with 8 road games against good teams. I like the Spurs, but I have the finishing 5 games behind the Thunder.

I'm more concerned that my 50 win prediction for the Wolves is too optimistic than not optimistic enough...it assumes perfect health, so I really hope that comes true.

Good news:

Wolves have the 3rd hardest schedule behind Denver and OKC. They should be able to get up for those games. Lol

Bad news:

In theory they are playing a tougher schedule than some other teams.

I think this type of stuff is worth looking at especially in the context of this thread but of course you never know what injuries there will be or what teams that were better earlier in the season will be less good now after the break or maybe better. There have been some bad teams that ended up finishing strong like I think it was Portland a year or 2 ago.

The Spurs aren't that far behind OKC. It's not out of the realm of possibility they could catch them and it seems like they have been playing better basketball than OKC recently. It could all swing around though so we will see what happens.

So, was the Nuggets loss to the Clippers tonight affect your spreadsheet?!?

60WinTim wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 12:16 am So, was the Nuggets loss to the Clippers tonight affect your spreadsheet?!?

Nope, I had the Clippers winning this game...they have been playing really well the past month as they worked themselves into the play in, and the Nuggets are not quite at their best without Gordon. Denver made it close though and would have taken it to OT except for a missed free throw by Murray as time expired.

Houston beating the Hornets though added a win though to their total and moved them ahead of the Wolves with 51 wins. Charlotte has been red hot the past month, and I thought they would win at home.

Our Wolves and a few other teams lost games I had them winning (I would have predicted a loss to Philly last night had I known Rudy was out), so I've adjusted my wins predictions. The top 3 remain far ahead of the pack but quite separated from each other. Teams 4-7 remain close to each other, but far from challenging for the top 3. Obviously things can change a lot before the end of the season, but last year I was predicting a real logjam 2-8 at this stage of the season, and that never changed...those 7 teams finished the season only 4 games apart. This year is different, and the top three teams look look destined to finish right where they are barring significant injuries.

OkC 64
Spurs 58
Nugs 54
Hous 51
Lakers 50
Wolves 49
Suns 48