Minnesota Sports Forum

Kawhi and Wemby both had terrific All-Star games, but Ant's team won, and I thought he deserved to be the MVP...Ant's game is made for All-Star games. He's an elite scorer, and that's what All-Star games are all about. I don't think this will be his last All Star award.

But as I was listening to a discussion today on NBA Radio about Jaylen Brown being butthurt because he is unappreciated and not really being considered as an MVP candidate despite averaging 29.2 PPG this season, I realized that Anthony Edwards is our version of Jaylen Brown...a terrific scorer who just isn't doing enough (hopefully YET) to make his team a contender. Justin Termine pointed out that there has never been an NBA MVP with a negative on/off since Cleaning the Glass started documenting on/off in 2024, and only Rose and Harden had positive numbers that were not that impressive...and most MVP's have had sensational on/off numbers. Here is the list since 2004...all positives:

Garnett: 19.0
Nash 15.9
Nash 8.6
Dirk 10.5
Kobe 7.0
LeBron 17.8
LeBron 15.4
Rose 1.3
LeBron 13.5
LeBron 15.4
Durant 5.8
Curry 16.3
Curry 21.3
Westbrook 5.8
Harden 1.9
Giannis 8.7
Giannis 13.6
Jokic 6.7
Jokic 19.5
Embiid 10.9
Jokic 23.7
SGA 7.6

I know most here see on/off as a messy number, but I like it because players I think of as winners always rank high by this measure (okay, almost always). To have a positive on/off you have to contribute in ways beyond scoring...defense, assists, protecting the ball, etc. I love to watch Brown and Ant on offense...they are exceptional scorers. But for some reason(s), they generally don't shine in on/off numbers like MVPs do. Ant is a -1.8 this season after being slightly negative also last season. And yet in his first four seasons when many of us here were excited about his defense, he had a positive on/off. Brown is even more extreme. He is a terrible -9.8 this season, and hasn't been positive since 2021-22.

Ant is going to continue to be a marvelous scorer, and he is going to win some games for us with his improved clutch time shooting. But I don't know that we are ever going to seriously challenge for a championship until Ant decides to be more than just an elite shooter and scorer. We need a guy on this team who can lead his team to a win when 2 starters are out, like 2 nights ago. Ant has the potential to be a 2-way player who can have a double digit positive on/off, challenge for an MVP award, and lead his team to a championship. But with him taking a big step backward on defense this year, as I look at Lip's "how do we define success this season" thread, I suspect there are going to be a lot a guys here out on the ledge when we lose to the Nuggets in the first round. I hope I'm wrong on this one.

Yes right now he's not particularly close to SGA or Joker. Only 13 of 70 MVP's were under 25 years old with Derick Rose being the worst of that group. I've never seen a player go into the lab in the summer and say I'm going to be become the best three point shooter in the league and do it. Than the next summer, go into the lab and say I want shoot post up mid range shots like Jordan and accomplish it. Regarding Jaylen Brown, he won the only MVP that really matters Finals MVP.

I'm confused by the on/off number

https://3stepsbasket.com/player/anthony ... ason=nba26
Has him with a +4. Not an elite number, but still good he. That number has also risen sharply over the last few month as Ant has been one of the best on the team in that regard over that span.

Not saying you're wrong, just that a different source has different (very different) information

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 6:19 pm I'm confused by the on/off number

https://3stepsbasket.com/player/anthony ... ason=nba26
Has him with a +4. Not an elite number, but still good he. That number has also risen sharply over the last few month as Ant has been one of the best on the team in that regard over that span.

Not saying you're wrong, just that a different source has different (very different) information

Yep, stats can be confusing. But since Termine was referencing on/off numbers documented by Cleaning the Glass since 2004, I used that. It calculates how your team fares when you are on the court compared to when you are off. His hypothesis (and mine) is that a championship team needs a leader who makes his team better when he is out there, and that goes for MVP winners also.

Rap makes two good points...that when Ant puts his mind to it, he seems to be able to accomplish almost anything, and that very few MVPs are as young as Ant currently is. I guess that's why my hopes for this season are muted currently... we had a terrific offseason last year (with a lot of help from Steph Curry), but Ant is too young and undeveloped to lead a true deep dive in the playoffs. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I have real concerns about the regression he has shown this season on defense.

Now that he has seemingly mastered the midrange area and has a real control about him when it comes to getting to his spots, I would anticipate his playmaking to be the next piece. He has shown flashes and the ability to understand and adjust to what defenses try to do to him, so I believe it is a matter of time. Many similar archetypes of player have been able to put the whole package together after that midrange tool is mastered. At that point he moves into top 5.

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 6:42 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 6:19 pm I'm confused by the on/off number

https://3stepsbasket.com/player/anthony ... ason=nba26
Has him with a +4. Not an elite number, but still good he. That number has also risen sharply over the last few month as Ant has been one of the best on the team in that regard over that span.

Not saying you're wrong, just that a different source has different (very different) information

Yep, stats can be confusing. But since Termine was referencing on/off numbers documented by Cleaning the Glass since 2004, I used that. It calculates how your team fares when you are on the court compared to when you are off. His hypothesis (and mine) is that a championship team needs a leader who makes his team better when he is out there, and that goes for MVP winners also.

Rap makes two good points...that when Ant puts his mind to it, he seems to be able to accomplish almost anything, and that very few MVPs are as young as Ant currently is. I guess that's why my hopes for this season are muted currently... we had a terrific offseason last year (with a lot of help from Steph Curry), but Ant is too young and undeveloped to lead a true deep dive in the playoffs. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I have real concerns about the regression he has shown this season on defense.

But why do the two site have vastly different numbers? Seems odd

I have similar reservations about where this team is going this year, although that has more to do with Randle than Ant.
Untimely I believe Ant is and can be THAT guy for a championship team, but I am also disappointed by his depreciated defense this year. The step forward offensively this year has been big enough that he is overall a better player this year than last or any other year, but there is a big gap between how good he COULD be and how good he has been this year.

It's pretty frustrating because there are few players in the league who are as capable of effecting the game on both ends the way he does but we so rarely see it

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 6:19 pm I'm confused by the on/off number

https://3stepsbasket.com/player/anthony ... ason=nba26
Has him with a +4. Not an elite number, but still good he. That number has also risen sharply over the last few month as Ant has been one of the best on the team in that regard over that span.

Not saying you're wrong, just that a different source has different (very different) information

Net Rating = Team Points per 100 possessions minus Opponent Points per 100 possessions while player is ON the court.

Net On/Off Rating = Player Net Rating (using formula above) minus Team net rating while player is OFF the court.

Ant has a positive Net Rating, but a negative Net On/Off Rating. They are two different metrics.

It should be noted that both Jaylen Brown AND Jayson Tatum had negative net on/off ratings two seasons ago when Boston won the title.

While FNG's analysis certainly rings true in terms of winning the league MVP, you don't need a league MVP to win a championship.

Finally, Ant has never had a negative net on/off rating in the playoffs.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 7:22 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 6:19 pm I'm confused by the on/off number

https://3stepsbasket.com/player/anthony ... ason=nba26
Has him with a +4. Not an elite number, but still good he. That number has also risen sharply over the last few month as Ant has been one of the best on the team in that regard over that span.

Not saying you're wrong, just that a different source has different (very different) information

Net Rating = Team Points per 100 possessions minus Opponent Points per 100 possessions while player is ON the court.

Net On/Off Rating = Player Net Rating (using formula above) minus Team net rating while player is OFF the court.

Ant has a positive Net Rating, but a negative Net On/Off Rating. They are two different metrics.

Click the link I embedded, it has both metrics.
Ant net is 4.6 and per 100 on/off is +4

Phenom wrote: ↑Tue Feb 24, 2026 6:54 pm Now that he has seemingly mastered the midrange area and has a real control about him when it comes to getting to his spots, I would anticipate his playmaking to be the next piece. He has shown flashes and the ability to understand and adjust to what defenses try to do to him, so I believe it is a matter of time. Many similar archetypes of player have been able to put the whole package together after that midrange tool is mastered. At that point he moves into top 5.

I agree on all points.
The most exciting moment this year for me was seeing Ant break into the mid range, keep his dribble live, without his weight committed to either foot, and a defender on his back. It was Luka esk, I don't think he passed out of that possession, but he has this year and it's exactly the type of possession that will lead to him being a legit Shai level playmaker or close to it