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We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 12:15 pm
by AussieWolf3
Before I get started, I want to make clear that this isn't a hit piece, and I'm not spilling the haterade. I like Julius, while it's ugly at time, I appreciate the bully ball. He seems to be a legit family man and I love that he really wants to share the game of basketball with his kids and I love seeing him in the crowd after a great play by his dad.

That said, we gotta talk about something: Randle started the season playing All NBA ball for the first month of the season, and that earned him enough good will that we haven't noticed that he has been pedestrian for most of the season since.

https://espnanalytics.com/nba-award-leaders

ESPN's Net Points illustrates this in an easy interface that's easy to read as you can look at an individuals game log and basically since 11/17 Randle has been average after being incredible to start. He is 4nd on the team in total net points with 55. He accumulated 48 of those points from the start of the season to the November 17th

Said another way, he averaged 3.4 net points a game, and has since averaged 0.1- 7th on the team (Naz is 2nd in that time).

Ok let's look at net rating, in the early part of the season Randle had a net rating of 10.5 -2nd behind Rudy. Since it is 3.3- the biggest drop on the team among the top 6

Since 11/17 the starting 5 has a net rating of 9.1. The lineup with the 2nd most minutes is the starters minus Randle for Naz with a Net rating of 15.5. there's a difference of 478 minutes, so take this one for what it's worth.

There are other statical measures of this, as well as what we're seeing with our eyes since the break, but Randle just hasn't been good for most of the year. The biggest factor for his huge dip is his 3 point shooting cratering, but the reason that he is basically a net neutral is because his defense is awful.

Naz isn't a good defender, but every metric suggests that he defends well in a team context, particularly with Rudy, and very importantly he is a legit shooting threat and spaces the floor significantly better than Julius. Whatever Randle brings as a playmaker just isn't doing enough to offset these realities.

They won't do it, but the coaching staff should spend the next 20 games experimenting with Randle playing more in the 2nd quarter with the 2nd unit while Naz gets more run with the starters. Politically you can't outright bench Randle but having him operate as the primary scorer with Ant on the bench would be a positive for the team.

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:09 pm
by Wolvesfan21
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 12:15 pm Before I get started, I want to make clear that this isn't a hit piece, and I'm not spilling the haterade. I like Julius, while it's ugly at time, I appreciate the bully ball. He seems to be a legit family man and I love that he really wants to share the game of basketball with his kids and I love seeing him in the crowd after a great play by his dad.

That said, we gotta talk about something: Randle started the season playing All NBA ball for the first month of the season, and that earned him enough good will that we haven't noticed that he has been pedestrian for most of the season since.

https://espnanalytics.com/nba-award-leaders

ESPN's Net Points illustrates this in an easy interface that's easy to read as you can look at an individuals game log and basically since 11/17 Randle has been average after being incredible to start. He is 4nd on the team in total net points with 55. He accumulated 48 of those points from the start of the season to the November 17th

Said another way, he averaged 3.4 net points a game, and has since averaged 0.1- 7th on the team (Naz is 2nd in that time).

Ok let's look at net rating, in the early part of the season Randle had a net rating of 10.5 -2nd behind Rudy. Since it is 3.3- the biggest drop on the team among the top 6

Since 11/17 the starting 5 has a net rating of 9.1. The lineup with the 2nd most minutes is the starters minus Randle for Naz with a Net rating of 15.5. there's a difference of 478 minutes, so take this one for what it's worth.

There are other statical measures of this, as well as what we're seeing with our eyes since the break, but Randle just hasn't been good for most of the year. The biggest factor for his huge dip is his 3 point shooting cratering, but the reason that he is basically a net neutral is because his defense is awful.

Naz isn't a good defender, but every metric suggests that he defends well in a team context, particularly with Rudy, and very importantly he is a legit shooting threat and spaces the floor significantly better than Julius. Whatever Randle brings as a playmaker just isn't doing enough to offset these realities.

They won't do it, but the coaching staff should spend the next 20 games experimenting with Randle playing more in the 2nd quarter with the 2nd unit while Naz gets more run with the starters. Politically you can't outright bench Randle but having him operate as the primary scorer with Ant on the bench would be a positive for the team.
I think you kind of keep it as status quo for the most part because I think to win it all we will need a good version of him to do so. Finch has already had Naz finish games at times and with Kyle coming in I can see him eating into some of Ju's minutes more and more, all depending on what kind of play we see from Ju game to game.

So I think we want to get Ju back on track as the main priority, second priority is winning games now. In the playoffs though anything game to game is for sure on the table. It's win at all costs at that point. Hopefully we get a good or great version of his game by then because I think we'll need it!

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:23 pm
by AussieWolf3
I think it is concerning that there hasn't been a sustained good version of Julius since that opening month tho, and most of his good games in that time have likely come- have to double check- when Ant has missed a game.

I'm simply saying that I'm just really concerned about this team's prospects as we head into the playoffs due to Randle's contributions or lack thereof.

I don't think they need to play through it to, "get him on track" I think the evidence suggests - although not overwhelmingly- that he is not a net positive, especially when he and Ant share the floor. Hopefully they figure it out, because I think there is something there actually but it's been extremely difficult for them to access

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:55 pm
by Wolvesfan21
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:23 pm I think it is concerning that there hasn't been a sustained good version of Julius since that opening month tho, and most of his good games in that time have likely come- have to double check- when Ant has missed a game.

I'm simply saying that I'm just really concerned about this team's prospects as we head into the playoffs due to Randle's contributions or lack thereof.

I don't think they need to play through it to, "get him on track" I think the evidence suggests - although not overwhelmingly- that he is not a net positive, especially when he and Ant share the floor. Hopefully they figure it out, because I think there is something there actually but it's been extremely difficult for them to access
I still think though the bottom line is, we need him to be good if we have any chance to go all the way. So to me, getting him on track is the number one goal now. If changing his minutes to be less Ant centric does it cool. IDK if that will work ultimately though. I think we need those guys to figure it out.

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:12 pm
by WildWolf2813
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:23 pm I think it is concerning that there hasn't been a sustained good version of Julius since that opening month tho, and most of his good games in that time have likely come- have to double check- when Ant has missed a game.

I'm simply saying that I'm just really concerned about this team's prospects as we head into the playoffs due to Randle's contributions or lack thereof.

I don't think they need to play through it to, "get him on track" I think the evidence suggests - although not overwhelmingly- that he is not a net positive, especially when he and Ant share the floor. Hopefully they figure it out, because I think there is something there actually but it's been extremely difficult for them to access
We signed up for this and more importantly, FInch is willing to bet everything on Randle

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:48 pm
by AussieWolf3
WildWolf2813 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:12 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:23 pm I think it is concerning that there hasn't been a sustained good version of Julius since that opening month tho, and most of his good games in that time have likely come- have to double check- when Ant has missed a game.

I'm simply saying that I'm just really concerned about this team's prospects as we head into the playoffs due to Randle's contributions or lack thereof.

I don't think they need to play through it to, "get him on track" I think the evidence suggests - although not overwhelmingly- that he is not a net positive, especially when he and Ant share the floor. Hopefully they figure it out, because I think there is something there actually but it's been extremely difficult for them to access
We signed up for this and more importantly, FInch is willing to bet everything on Randle
I didn't sign up for it lol

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:08 pm
by Coolbreeze44
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:48 pm
WildWolf2813 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:12 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 1:23 pm I think it is concerning that there hasn't been a sustained good version of Julius since that opening month tho, and most of his good games in that time have likely come- have to double check- when Ant has missed a game.

I'm simply saying that I'm just really concerned about this team's prospects as we head into the playoffs due to Randle's contributions or lack thereof.

I don't think they need to play through it to, "get him on track" I think the evidence suggests - although not overwhelmingly- that he is not a net positive, especially when he and Ant share the floor. Hopefully they figure it out, because I think there is something there actually but it's been extremely difficult for them to access
We signed up for this and more importantly, FInch is willing to bet everything on Randle
I didn't sign up for it lol
I didn't sign up for it either, but the Wolves did. And that was a major mistake last offseason, and again at the trade deadline. What can we do?

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:14 pm
by AussieWolf3
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:08 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:48 pm
WildWolf2813 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:12 pm
We signed up for this and more importantly, FInch is willing to bet everything on Randle
I didn't sign up for it lol
I didn't sign up for it either, but the Wolves did. And that was a major mistake last offseason, and again at the trade deadline. What can we do?
Chat about it and analyize

I'm not suggesting there is anything WE should do, just making observations

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 5:09 pm
by Coolbreeze44
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:14 pm
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:08 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 2:48 pm

I didn't sign up for it lol
I didn't sign up for it either, but the Wolves did. And that was a major mistake last offseason, and again at the trade deadline. What can we do?
Chat about it and analyize

I'm not suggesting there is anything WE should do, just making observations
No, I'm with you on this. I'm just saying this shouldn't be a problem now.

Re: We gotta talk about Julius

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2026 6:13 pm
by AussieWolf3
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 5:09 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:14 pm
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2026 3:08 pm

I didn't sign up for it either, but the Wolves did. And that was a major mistake last offseason, and again at the trade deadline. What can we do?
Chat about it and analyize

I'm not suggesting there is anything WE should do, just making observations
No, I'm with you on this. I'm just saying this shouldn't be a problem now.
Gotchu

Yeah it's interesting because the net gain from the KAT trade I think will outweigh the loss of KAT and his salary, but that very much depends on the results of this season and any assets acquired in a possible Randle trade.
Ultimately, I understand the theoretical fit with Ant and Ju, but everything with this team just feels too hard too often and I'm suspecting more and more that Julius is more the root problem, and I haven't always felt that way.
It's honestly too bad if it true, cause I want him to succeed here. He seems like a good guy and I'm rooting for him to overcome some of the mental health challenges he's spoken about