Minnesota Sports Forum

Okay, this is going to be a very positive take, so be gentle please! I'm feeling rather positive after beating Boston and Houston this week despite missing Ant. I'm also not ignoring the fact that the injury bug has hit us, but I want to address how we may have fixed 3 big issues:

Non Rudy defense: This has been a huge issue all season, with an immense difference in DRtg when Rudy is in and when he is out. BUT...enter Kyle Anderson. SloMo hasn't played that many minutes this season and looks well rested out there. And surprisingly, our DRtg with Kyle and without Rudy is better than our very good DRtg with Rudy! Kyle is long and smart, and is fitting in very well in the minutes Rudy sits.

Point guard: Or maybe better said, improved ball handling. Again Kyle to the rescue. He has moved seamlessly into the de facto PG role off the bench, and has looked very comfortable handling the point for several minutes every game...just like he did a decade ago at UCLA. Plus the Ant injury has thrust Ayo into a starting PG role, and he has also been quite good...4 assists and only 1.8 TOs per game in his last 10 games. Further, Mike showed us last night that he is another reliable ballhandler Finchy can turn to in a pinch if we're struggling to hold on to the ball. Are we suddenly okay at PG?

Ju/Ant defense: The defense from both of them has been mostly awful all season. Ant has been out the past several games, and not surprisingly, our defense looks really good. And many of us, including me, are clinging to the premise that Playoff Ant will be a plus defender. But then there is Ju. His defense also upticks somewhat in the playoffs, but not to the degree Ant's does. But he had looked terrific on defense since Ant has been out. It's a little frustrating, because it shows than Ju is a good defender...when he wants to be. He's strong, relatively smart, and has fairly quick feet for a big guy. If Ant and Ju both put in maximum effort on defense in the post season, another conference finals is far from preposterous...and maybe even more.

This is not to ignore there are other issues with this team...Ju/Ant ball dominance and lack of ball movement being one of them. But I like that 3 issues we have talked about all season suddenly look more favorable.

Thoughts?

- The non Rudy defense is certainly addressed with Anderson and I think Ayo has also contributed there. I am concerned if Anderson can continued to be relied on in the post season, given how his role diminished a couple years ago at that time. The circumstances and roster are different now and there is a more natural space for him to occupy in the rotation, so I think he'll continue to be a positive force come playoff time. I'm actually really optimistic about this.

- I'm not quite as sunny about the ball handling issues however. If Ayo continues his upward trend then that'll change but I'm somewhat dubious of over relying on Kyle in this capacity. He's no doubt a good playmaker but at the end of the day a 6'10" ball handler is always gonna come with some risk.

- this one is the single biggest hinge point for the results of this season. Julius has stepped up his defense in a big way, hopefully that continues, and obviously the hope is Ant does as well. Over the last two weeks the Wolves are 10th in net rating, 24rd in offense, and 2nd in Defense.

113.6/106.9/ +6.7 Net

That DRTG is .2 points behind OCK- they've been elite here and I think this has much more to do with Anderson than Ant being out.

I think it's reasonable to say that the defense can stay at relatively the same level and Ant returning to the lineup will provide quite the boost on offense.

I did a little mathing about it actually.

With Garbage time removed Ant has a Net rating of +4.2 (+3.6 ORTG, -.5 DRTG).

Ok Ant plays 35.5 MPG. That's 74% of the available minutes. So 74% of 4.2 is 3.1

Is it unreasonable to think that inserting Ant back into the starting lineup with provide an overall Net rating boost of +3.1 from 6.7?

Obviously it won't work out quite that smoothly but this is the best proxy my smooth ass brain could figure out.

For the record a +9.8 NRTG would be 2nd best for the season

I don't know, FNG, "fixed" is a strong word...

But I agree we have "fortified" several of our weaknesses.

Playmaking - the emergence of Bones, and the addition of Ayo and SloMo has really boosted our playmaking across the board. The biggest risk to our improved playmaking is ANT deciding he needs to always initiate the offense. We'll all be watching this closely when ANT returns.

Defense and Defensive Rebounding - Ayo adds a plus defender in the backcourt, and SloMo adds a plus defender in the frontcourt. This boosts a defense that was already a top-10 defense, and helps address the non-Rudy minutes.

Depth - Ayo and SloMo gives Finch a solid 9-man rotation which still has Mike on the bench, which paid off in their last game. This helps smooth over any missed games, whether it be in the backcourt or the frontcourt. It'll be interesting to see how Finch handles the Jaden absence!

So, I do think the Wolves have addressed their biggest issues. I think they are ready for a pretty decent playoff run!

Personally, i take nothing away from any game/s, that Ant doesn't play in. He completely changes the dynamics of the team.

Mnwild1128 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2026 11:14 pm Personally, i take nothing away from any game/s, that Ant doesn't play in. He completely changes the dynamics of the team.

I think there is a lot we can learn from particularly how good there defense has been. After last night's games they now have the highest DRTG over the last 2 weeks

The two biggest factors for this are how bad teams are shooting against them --- they have the #1 DTS with teams shooting almost 15% worse than league average against them ---

They have also been fouling much less over this stretch, as there FTR is at 23.5%--- way down from their season average of 27.8.

That DTS is obviously unsustainable, but can it normalize down to a still elite level? Can their rebounding bounce back up to their season average, as that is way down?

As I said above, I think the defensive improvement has more to do with Anderson and just a general level of commitment from the team. I think that can sustain when Ant returns

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2026 8:12 am

Mnwild1128 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2026 11:14 pm Personally, i take nothing away from any game/s, that Ant doesn't play in. He completely changes the dynamics of the team.

I think there is a lot we can learn from particularly how good there defense has been. After last night's games they now have the highest DRTG over the last 2 weeks

The two biggest factors for this are how bad teams are shooting against them --- they have the #1 DTS with teams shooting almost 15% worse than league average against them ---

They have also been fouling much less over this stretch, as there FTR is at 23.5%--- way down from their season average of 27.8.

That DTS is obviously unsustainable, but can it normalize down to a still elite level? Can their rebounding bounce back up to their season average, as that is way down?

As I said above, I think the defensive improvement has more to do with Anderson and just a general level of commitment from the team. I think that can sustain when Ant returns

I go with the commitment piece as much or more than SloMo, although obviously he's helped a ton. When you are missing your star player, you have to find other ways to win, as the half court offense has been mostly terrible since Ant went out. Kudos to the coaching staff and players for really leaning into defense, pressuring the ball, and running hard off turnovers.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2026 7:25 pm I don't know, FNG, "fixed" is a strong word...

But I agree we have "fortified" several of our weaknesses.

Playmaking - the emergence of Bones, and the addition of Ayo and SloMo has really boosted our playmaking across the board. The biggest risk to our improved playmaking is ANT deciding he needs to always initiate the offense. We'll all be watching this closely when ANT returns.

Defense and Defensive Rebounding - Ayo adds a plus defender in the backcourt, and SloMo adds a plus defender in the frontcourt. This boosts a defense that was already a top-10 defense, and helps address the non-Rudy minutes.

Depth - Ayo and SloMo gives Finch a solid 9-man rotation which still has Mike on the bench, which paid off in their last game. This helps smooth over any missed games, whether it be in the backcourt or the frontcourt. It'll be interesting to see how Finch handles the Jaden absence!

So, I do think the Wolves have addressed their biggest issues. I think they are ready for a pretty decent playoff run!

I share your optimism, but agree that fortified is more realistic than fixed. I can't believe I left Hyland out of my PG section...he has been a pleasant surprise. 3.2 assists per game with only 1.2 turnovers his last 10 games is quite good.

The Jaden situation is a little concerning. He said he was fine after the Houston game, so it's a little alarming he doesn't feel as good a couple days later. But maybe this is just the Wolves applying an abundance of caution with Jaden, as well as with Ayo and Ant. We'll have to see, I guess.

I agree with Tim that "fortified" is probably the more apt descriptor.

Basically Ayo+SloMo >>>>>>>> Dillingham, TJ, Conley, and Clark.

Still, I'm skeptical about how Bones and SloMo do under the crucible of playoff basketball. Not that they aren't gamers, it's just that their weaknesses will be more exposed (Bones will get targeted on defense and SloMo will be targeted on offense and made into a shooter/scorer).

And finally, Naz and DDV have been net liabilities in every season they've been in the playoffs, respectively. What's changed where that won't be the case again? There is just something about playoff basketball that bring out their weaknesses more than their strengths.

Then there is Julius, who while lately has been playing more inspired defense has struggled mightily to convert shots in the half court.

I guess you could call that the glass as half-empty take!

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2026 8:23 am

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2026 8:12 am

Mnwild1128 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2026 11:14 pm Personally, i take nothing away from any game/s, that Ant doesn't play in. He completely changes the dynamics of the team.

I think there is a lot we can learn from particularly how good there defense has been. After last night's games they now have the highest DRTG over the last 2 weeks

The two biggest factors for this are how bad teams are shooting against them --- they have the #1 DTS with teams shooting almost 15% worse than league average against them ---

They have also been fouling much less over this stretch, as there FTR is at 23.5%--- way down from their season average of 27.8.

That DTS is obviously unsustainable, but can it normalize down to a still elite level? Can their rebounding bounce back up to their season average, as that is way down?

As I said above, I think the defensive improvement has more to do with Anderson and just a general level of commitment from the team. I think that can sustain when Ant returns

I go with the commitment piece as much or more than SloMo, although obviously he's helped a ton. When you are missing your star player, you have to find other ways to win, as the half court offense has been mostly terrible since Ant went out. Kudos to the coaching staff and players for really leaning into defense, pressuring the ball, and running hard off turnovers.

I also think commitment is the biggest change in our defense. There have been far too many games in which two of our starters just haven't seemed interested in the defensive side of the ball, as demonstrated by their horrible defensive on/off numbers: +7.4 for Ju, and +7.7 for Ant. A team might be able to function on defense with one player not committed, but 2 is a big problem. But the absence of Ant and more defensive focus by Ju has totally revised our defense, and supplemented by the spark Kyle has provided when Rudy is out.

But yeah, there's another side of the coin...our half court offense really struggles with Ant out. We look potent when we can get out on the break (and while I don't have the stats, it seemed like we didn't get out on the break as much against the Rockets), but we clearly need Ant once we get into the half court. Despite the fast break points, we're only averaging 100 PPG since the Utah blowout (taking out the 15 OT points in the Rockets game)...we're lucky to be 2-1 scoring so few points, but again...credit the defense. It's amazing how the Wolves are a completely different team when Ant is missing...both good and bad! I'm a defense-first kind of guy, so I've really enjoyed watching this club the last 5 games, but there's no ignoring how impotent our half-court offense is without Ant. And today might really be tough to watch with both Ant and Jaden (and maybe Ayo) out!

There is a lot of conversation about "speeding up" the team. I believe there are 2 ways to speed things up.
1. Fast breaks, get the ball down the court for easy transition baskets before the defense is set.
2. Getting the ball into the front court quickly and into the offense as soon as possible to allow more time for ball movement. Longer offensive time allows players to rest for defense.
3. Making quicker decisions with the ball. Shoot, pass, drive in under 1.5 seconds. Ant/Randle usually are over 3 sec(or so it seems).

I think Ayo and Bones unleashed helps all 3 of my points above.