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Do We Have the Ant-LaMelo Fit Backwards?

Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2026 1:19 am
by SameOldNudityDrew
Have you guys watched the videos from the Hot Hand Theory guy, XJ?

He's a big fan of Melo and has watched him play a lot, and he's got a different take on Melo's fit than I've heard elsewhere.

Here's a short video on it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wivFWBK5xe4

And a longer one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZCFYM1gK90&t=1645s

I won't summarize his main point any more than the subject line indicates. Watch the video(s) yourself. But it seems like a fairly compelling argument to me.

What do you think?

Re: Do We Have the Ant-LaMelo Fit Backwards?

Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2026 8:17 am
by Q-is-here
I don't think there is really an argument or debate to be had here. I've never heard Ball compared to a heliocentric player like Doncic or prime Harden in Houston. Finch has always tried to pair Ant up with another guard that could space the floor, shoot the 3, and make a play against a shifted defense when Ant has the ball in his hands.

Re: Do We Have the Ant-LaMelo Fit Backwards?

Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2026 9:50 pm
by Monster
Q-is-here wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2026 8:17 am I don't think there is really an argument or debate to be had here. I've never heard Ball compared to a heliocentric player like Doncic or prime Harden in Houston. Finch has always tried to pair Ant up with another guard that could space the floor, shoot the 3, and make a play against a shifted defense when Ant has the ball in his hands.
I'll also add that Finch has never been completely tied to one guy bringing up the ball every time down the floor.

Re: Do We Have the Ant-LaMelo Fit Backwards?

Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2026 4:53 am
by SameOldNudityDrew
All of that is true, Q and monster.

At the same time, I think a lot of the messaging about this trade has basically been: now the Wolves have a real PG, so Ant can move off ball and let Melo initiate. Dane, Jon K, national podcasters/commentators, and even Finch have basically said or indicated as much.

And while that's a fair point, what I find potentially helpful about XJ's analysis is that, in part, he's arguing for a different order of operations than the "real PG, natural SG" labels usually suggest. In that traditional way that we kind of tend to think about those roles, the PG brings the ball up the court into the halfcourt, then an action starts with the PG dribbling the ball, looking to set up a pass out of a pick or something to ideally hit the SG for an open shot.

The implication of XJ's argument is that because of the nature of Melo's skills, while he should probably be the guy catching the first pass off the rebound or inbounds (especially because of the transition threat he poses), a lot of the time, the ball should still find Ant first by the time the ball crosses halfcourt, and Ant should still often be the one to initiate the halfcourt play, using his gravity to first force the defense to react and then pass it to Melo because it's at that point in the play when Melo is most dangerous in a way that makes everyone on the team dangerous (because he's better as a passer when the defense is already shifting and in chaos than at the start of a halfcourt possession).

So instead of looking for a "Melo pass to Ant to shoot" as the root of a play, we should just as often (if not more often) look for an "Ant pass to Melo to pass to the highest percentage shot" as the root. A lot of the time, that will get back to Ant, so that WILL function like a PG to SG kind of play. And XJ does point out that a kind of traditional Ant setting the pick for Melo or ghost screen for Melo will be deadly. But it might be more effective if Ant's getting the ball rolling first, look to hit Melo with the pass, and that should actually open up a lot more passing opportunities for Melo to hit one of the other guys on the floor.

Basically, it's kind of like he's saying that we shouldn't necessarily think of Melo as taking over Conley's role or the role that Ant had last year, but (at least in part) that we might want to think of Melo as almost taking over Julius' role as the facilitator who doesn't necessarily initiate the offense, but should probably be the first guy after Ant in the halfcourt to touch the ball. Clearly, Melo will be a million times better than Julius at that and it's THAT which will make Ant's life easier, not necessarily that Melo should take over Ant's role and Ant should take over Julius' role as the secondary creator, if that makes sense.

Obviously, Melo's the better passer and Ant's the better scorer. But what I like about XJ's point is that he's kind of warning us to remember to keep their roles highly fluid and interchangeable. I know Finch was open to this last year, making Ant the de-facto PG and running a lot of offense through Julius, but that was kind of out of necessity because of Conley's decline, and Finch has said it was a disservice to Ant to ask him to initiate the offense last year. That's partly true, but I think the bigger disservice was giving him such a methodical and myopic partner in that with Julius. I just hope Finch doesn't overcorrect and we see too many plays where Ant is expected to play like Rip Hamilton.

I'm getting more excited about Melo, especially because it seems like his skillset matches Ant's better than I initially thought, even if both their roles defy the classic way of thinking about backcourt players.

For those who haven't yet checked out the videos, I recommend them. It's impossible to watch them both and not get excited for this coming year.

Re: Do We Have the Ant-LaMelo Fit Backwards?

Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2026 8:10 am
by Q-is-here
SameOldNudityDrew wrote: Sun Aug 30, 2026 4:53 am All of that is true, Q and monster.

At the same time, I think a lot of the messaging about this trade has basically been: now the Wolves have a real PG, so Ant can move off ball and let Melo initiate. Dane, Jon K, national podcasters/commentators, and even Finch have basically said or indicated as much.

And while that's a fair point, what I find potentially helpful about XJ's analysis is that, in part, he's arguing for a different order of operations than the "real PG, natural SG" labels usually suggest. In that traditional way that we kind of tend to think about those roles, the PG brings the ball up the court into the halfcourt, then an action starts with the PG dribbling the ball, looking to set up a pass out of a pick or something to ideally hit the SG for an open shot.

The implication of XJ's argument is that because of the nature of Melo's skills, while he should probably be the guy catching the first pass off the rebound or inbounds (especially because of the transition threat he poses), a lot of the time, the ball should still find Ant first by the time the ball crosses halfcourt, and Ant should still often be the one to initiate the halfcourt play, using his gravity to first force the defense to react and then pass it to Melo because it's at that point in the play when Melo is most dangerous in a way that makes everyone on the team dangerous (because he's better as a passer when the defense is already shifting and in chaos than at the start of a halfcourt possession).

So instead of looking for a "Melo pass to Ant to shoot" as the root of a play, we should just as often (if not more often) look for an "Ant pass to Melo to pass to the highest percentage shot" as the root. A lot of the time, that will get back to Ant, so that WILL function like a PG to SG kind of play. And XJ does point out that a kind of traditional Ant setting the pick for Melo or ghost screen for Melo will be deadly. But it might be more effective if Ant's getting the ball rolling first, look to hit Melo with the pass, and that should actually open up a lot more passing opportunities for Melo to hit one of the other guys on the floor.

Basically, it's kind of like he's saying that we shouldn't necessarily think of Melo as taking over Conley's role or the role that Ant had last year, but (at least in part) that we might want to think of Melo as almost taking over Julius' role as the facilitator who doesn't necessarily initiate the offense, but should probably be the first guy after Ant in the halfcourt to touch the ball. Clearly, Melo will be a million times better than Julius at that and it's THAT which will make Ant's life easier, not necessarily that Melo should take over Ant's role and Ant should take over Julius' role as the secondary creator, if that makes sense.

Obviously, Melo's the better passer and Ant's the better scorer. But what I like about XJ's point is that he's kind of warning us to remember to keep their roles highly fluid and interchangeable. I know Finch was open to this last year, making Ant the de-facto PG and running a lot of offense through Julius, but that was kind of out of necessity because of Conley's decline, and Finch has said it was a disservice to Ant to ask him to initiate the offense last year. That's partly true, but I think the bigger disservice was giving him such a methodical and myopic partner in that with Julius. I just hope Finch doesn't overcorrect and we see too many plays where Ant is expected to play like Rip Hamilton.

I'm getting more excited about Melo, especially because it seems like his skillset matches Ant's better than I initially thought, even if both their roles defy the classic way of thinking about backcourt players.

For those who haven't yet checked out the videos, I recommend them. It's impossible to watch them both and not get excited for this coming year.
It still takes energy and skill to bring the ball up and set-up the offense. There is an advantage if done by LaMelo more than Ant since he will likely get the ball up quicker and get us into whatever stuff Finch is running with less time coming off the shot clock. It's an underrated aspect of Conley - that ability to set up the halfcourt offense to get us into actions after opponent makes.

But yeah, I agree that LaMelo shouldn't ALWAYS be the guy bringing the ball up. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jaden do it more often this year.