Buxton - These struggling rookies can still become stars
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:49 am
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/18303673/rookies-ready-rebound-poor-first-impression
The most highly acclaimed prospect in our group has now struggled in two separate MLB trials in 2015-16. At least he finished strong and put up more credible numbers the second time around.
He has numerous shining positives -- and some glaring negatives -- in his portfolio. On the positive side, you have to start with the tools that got him drafted second overall in 2012. He hit the ball pretty hard for a "struggler" in 2016, ranking in the league-average range across BIP types. Most current stars who struggled at first didn't hit the baseball very well. He can fly, enabling him to defend his position well and also far outperform his adjusted grounder contact score (95-59 in 2015, 135-101 in 2016) in both of his major league trials.
On the negative side, there's that obscenely high K-rate. On a scale where 100 equals league average, Buxton posted a 170 strikeout rate in 2015, and a rate of 175 in 2016. Among our strugglers, only Rizzo (177 in 2011) and Saunders (187 in 2009, 184 in 2011) made good living in that stratosphere. Buxton also posted a 157 popup rate in 2016, which means still more "free" outs. Only Saunders (172) lived in that area, in 2011. There is much work to be done before one can expect much batting average from Buxton.
Even with an average (101) adjusted contact score, Buxton's adjusted production was way below sea level at 64 last season. Thanks to that healthy speed premium, his actual wRC+ of 86 was more palatable. The Twins should not look at him as a strong OBP leadoff type. I see him as more of an Adam Jones type offensively at best, but whiffing and walking more than the O's center fielder.
Emphasis on "at best." There is plenty of risk and reward here. He's digging out of deeper depths than most of our strugglers-made-good. Carlos Gomez's journey, in particular, should give Buxton hope. Gomez struggled in five separate stints before finally asserting himself with the bat in Milwaukee. Gomez suffered from below-average BIP authority in each of those stints, with strikeout, walk and popup rate problems to boot. But he got his BIP authority in line, made subtle improvements around the edges, and arrived. If Gomez could do it, so can Buxton.
The most highly acclaimed prospect in our group has now struggled in two separate MLB trials in 2015-16. At least he finished strong and put up more credible numbers the second time around.
He has numerous shining positives -- and some glaring negatives -- in his portfolio. On the positive side, you have to start with the tools that got him drafted second overall in 2012. He hit the ball pretty hard for a "struggler" in 2016, ranking in the league-average range across BIP types. Most current stars who struggled at first didn't hit the baseball very well. He can fly, enabling him to defend his position well and also far outperform his adjusted grounder contact score (95-59 in 2015, 135-101 in 2016) in both of his major league trials.
On the negative side, there's that obscenely high K-rate. On a scale where 100 equals league average, Buxton posted a 170 strikeout rate in 2015, and a rate of 175 in 2016. Among our strugglers, only Rizzo (177 in 2011) and Saunders (187 in 2009, 184 in 2011) made good living in that stratosphere. Buxton also posted a 157 popup rate in 2016, which means still more "free" outs. Only Saunders (172) lived in that area, in 2011. There is much work to be done before one can expect much batting average from Buxton.
Even with an average (101) adjusted contact score, Buxton's adjusted production was way below sea level at 64 last season. Thanks to that healthy speed premium, his actual wRC+ of 86 was more palatable. The Twins should not look at him as a strong OBP leadoff type. I see him as more of an Adam Jones type offensively at best, but whiffing and walking more than the O's center fielder.
Emphasis on "at best." There is plenty of risk and reward here. He's digging out of deeper depths than most of our strugglers-made-good. Carlos Gomez's journey, in particular, should give Buxton hope. Gomez struggled in five separate stints before finally asserting himself with the bat in Milwaukee. Gomez suffered from below-average BIP authority in each of those stints, with strikeout, walk and popup rate problems to boot. But he got his BIP authority in line, made subtle improvements around the edges, and arrived. If Gomez could do it, so can Buxton.