Thoughts about next year's starting lineup

[FNG]

I'm starting a discussion thread where we can discuss options for next year's lineup. With the pitching failure this year combined with the prospect of losing Maeda for a year if he has TJ surgery, our starting rotation next year will garner much discussion here I'm sure.

But I want to kick off the discussion with a conversation about Miguel Sano and Max Kepler with help from the deep dive Gleeman takes in this article in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2771363/2021/08/26/nothing-unlucky-about-it-six-years-into-his-twins-career-why-are-max-keplers-batting-averages-so-low/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

I don't know if non-subscribers can read it, but it is not flattering to our Max. It turns out that he has the worst BABIP of any player since 1990, and even worse, those in the same category as him are all right hander hitters and mostly plodding players like catchers. The culprit for Max's poor batting average is not strike outs...he strikes out less than the league average. But his propensity to pop up or regularly hit into the shift leads to his tragic BABIP. Gleeman argues that his poor average is not based on bad luck, because his poor BABIP is consistent through his career. Max is a plus defender with some power, and a good baserunner. But I believe there are many better options to man right field next season. I don't expect our pitching to be very good next year, so like the Wolves, this team is going to have to outscore opponents to win, and we can't afford a corner outfielder who is not likely to hit over .230. He's signed through 2023, so I'm hoping some team thinks they can improve him and will give us a prospect or two for him...even if we have to absorb some salary.

On the other hand, Sano is my first baseman next year. I was on his case more than anyone here the first half of the season, but he looks like a different hitter recently. Yes he will strike out a lot, although he has lowered his K rate a lot as of late, and he is not likely to ever hit close to .300. But whatever happened to his ability to recognize a pitch seems to have gone away, and his plate discipline actually looks pretty good. He is a capable first baseman, and I think has shown in recent weeks has the ability to be a 40 HR guy for several years.

We need to unload Kepler if we can in favor of young talent, and pencil Sano in as our 2022 first baseman.

[Monster]

I'm starting a discussion thread where we can discuss options for next year's lineup. With the pitching failure this year combined with the prospect of losing Maeda for a year if he has TJ surgery, our starting rotation next year will garner much discussion here I'm sure.

But I want to kick off the discussion with a conversation about Miguel Sano and Max Kepler with help from the deep dive Gleeman takes in this article in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2771363/2021/08/26/nothing-unlucky-about-it-six-years-into-his-twins-career-why-are-max-keplers-batting-averages-so-low/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

I don't know if non-subscribers can read it, but it is not flattering to our Max. It turns out that he has the worst BABIP of any player since 1990, and even worse, those in the same category as him are all right hander hitters and mostly plodding players like catchers. The culprit for Max's poor batting average is not strike outs...he strikes out less than the league average. But his propensity to pop up or regularly hit into the shift leads to his tragic BABIP. Gleeman argues that his poor average is not based on bad luck, because his poor BABIP is consistent through his career. Max is a plus defender with some power, and a good baserunner. But I believe there are many better options to man right field next season. I don't expect our pitching to be very good next year, so like the Wolves, this team is going to have to outscore opponents to win, and we can't afford a corner outfielder who is not likely to hit over .230. He's signed through 2023, so I'm hoping some team thinks they can improve him and will give us a prospect or two for him...even if we have to absorb some salary.

On the other hand, Sano is my first baseman next year. I was on his case more than anyone here the first half of the season, but he looks like a different hitter recently. Yes he will strike out a lot, although he has lowered his K rate a lot as of late, and he is not likely to ever hit close to .300. But whatever happened to his ability to recognize a pitch seems to have gone away, and his plate discipline actually looks pretty good. He is a capable first baseman, and I think has shown in recent weeks has the ability to be a 40 HR guy for several years.

We need to unload Kepler if we can in favor of young talent, and pencil Sano in as our 2022 first baseman.

A few months you might be switching your opinion on which of these guys you would want playing. Both are flawed players and I think both of them are going to be on the roster next season.

If Meada does have TJ surgery that's a huge blow as he would be out for all of next season. One positive is that he will only cost the Twins about 3 million in salary which is why that contract with him as a player was valuable to acquire. So that would give them some more money to spend than they would expect if Meada was healthy. His salary will be lower this year as well since he will only reach about 2.5 million in incentives. It would be better if he was pitching but again at least not having to pay him as much when he isn't healthy is helpful.

[FNG]

I'm starting a discussion thread where we can discuss options for next year's lineup. With the pitching failure this year combined with the prospect of losing Maeda for a year if he has TJ surgery, our starting rotation next year will garner much discussion here I'm sure.

But I want to kick off the discussion with a conversation about Miguel Sano and Max Kepler with help from the deep dive Gleeman takes in this article in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2771363/2021/08/26/nothing-unlucky-about-it-six-years-into-his-twins-career-why-are-max-keplers-batting-averages-so-low/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

I don't know if non-subscribers can read it, but it is not flattering to our Max. It turns out that he has the worst BABIP of any player since 1990, and even worse, those in the same category as him are all right hander hitters and mostly plodding players like catchers. The culprit for Max's poor batting average is not strike outs...he strikes out less than the league average. But his propensity to pop up or regularly hit into the shift leads to his tragic BABIP. Gleeman argues that his poor average is not based on bad luck, because his poor BABIP is consistent through his career. Max is a plus defender with some power, and a good baserunner. But I believe there are many better options to man right field next season. I don't expect our pitching to be very good next year, so like the Wolves, this team is going to have to outscore opponents to win, and we can't afford a corner outfielder who is not likely to hit over .230. He's signed through 2023, so I'm hoping some team thinks they can improve him and will give us a prospect or two for him...even if we have to absorb some salary.

On the other hand, Sano is my first baseman next year. I was on his case more than anyone here the first half of the season, but he looks like a different hitter recently. Yes he will strike out a lot, although he has lowered his K rate a lot as of late, and he is not likely to ever hit close to .300. But whatever happened to his ability to recognize a pitch seems to have gone away, and his plate discipline actually looks pretty good. He is a capable first baseman, and I think has shown in recent weeks has the ability to be a 40 HR guy for several years.

We need to unload Kepler if we can in favor of young talent, and pencil Sano in as our 2022 first baseman.

A few months you might be switching your opinion on which of these guys you would want playing. Both are flawed players and I think both of them are going to be on the roster next season.

If Meada does have TJ surgery that's a huge blow as he would be out for all of next season. One positive is that he will only cost the Twins about 3 million in salary which is why that contract with him as a player was valuable to acquire. So that would give them some more money to spend than they would expect if Meada was healthy. His salary will be lower this year as well since he will only reach about 2.5 million in incentives. It would be better if he was pitching but again at least not having to pay him as much when he isn't healthy is helpful.

I'm quite certain I won't be switching my opinion on the 2 even if Max goes on a tear the last month of the season...the stats Gleeman cites are way too consistently compelling to ever think he will be a plus player at the plate. He may be on the roster next season, but I hope he is in the Jake Cave role as a backup outfielder. You're right though that I still may flip on Sano if he reverts to his early season self. But I like what I'm seeing right now.

Let's hope that the exploratory surgery indicates no need for TJ for Kenta. But even if it does, you're right about the wise contract the Twins negotiated with him...poor Kenta will lose millions next season if he can't pitch.

[Monster]

I'm starting a discussion thread where we can discuss options for next year's lineup. With the pitching failure this year combined with the prospect of losing Maeda for a year if he has TJ surgery, our starting rotation next year will garner much discussion here I'm sure.

But I want to kick off the discussion with a conversation about Miguel Sano and Max Kepler with help from the deep dive Gleeman takes in this article in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2771363/2021/08/26/nothing-unlucky-about-it-six-years-into-his-twins-career-why-are-max-keplers-batting-averages-so-low/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

I don't know if non-subscribers can read it, but it is not flattering to our Max. It turns out that he has the worst BABIP of any player since 1990, and even worse, those in the same category as him are all right hander hitters and mostly plodding players like catchers. The culprit for Max's poor batting average is not strike outs...he strikes out less than the league average. But his propensity to pop up or regularly hit into the shift leads to his tragic BABIP. Gleeman argues that his poor average is not based on bad luck, because his poor BABIP is consistent through his career. Max is a plus defender with some power, and a good baserunner. But I believe there are many better options to man right field next season. I don't expect our pitching to be very good next year, so like the Wolves, this team is going to have to outscore opponents to win, and we can't afford a corner outfielder who is not likely to hit over .230. He's signed through 2023, so I'm hoping some team thinks they can improve him and will give us a prospect or two for him...even if we have to absorb some salary.

On the other hand, Sano is my first baseman next year. I was on his case more than anyone here the first half of the season, but he looks like a different hitter recently. Yes he will strike out a lot, although he has lowered his K rate a lot as of late, and he is not likely to ever hit close to .300. But whatever happened to his ability to recognize a pitch seems to have gone away, and his plate discipline actually looks pretty good. He is a capable first baseman, and I think has shown in recent weeks has the ability to be a 40 HR guy for several years.

We need to unload Kepler if we can in favor of young talent, and pencil Sano in as our 2022 first baseman.

A few months you might be switching your opinion on which of these guys you would want playing. Both are flawed players and I think both of them are going to be on the roster next season.

If Meada does have TJ surgery that's a huge blow as he would be out for all of next season. One positive is that he will only cost the Twins about 3 million in salary which is why that contract with him as a player was valuable to acquire. So that would give them some more money to spend than they would expect if Meada was healthy. His salary will be lower this year as well since he will only reach about 2.5 million in incentives. It would be better if he was pitching but again at least not having to pay him as much when he isn't healthy is helpful.

I'm quite certain I won't be switching my opinion on the 2 even if Max goes on a tear the last month of the season...the stats Gleeman cites are way too consistently compelling to ever think he will be a plus player at the plate. He may be on the roster next season, but I hope he is in the Jake Cave role as a backup outfielder. You're right though that I still may flip on Sano if he reverts to his early season self. But I like what I'm seeing right now.

Let's hope that the exploratory surgery indicates no need for TJ for Kenta. But even if it does, you're right about the wise contract the Twins negotiated with him...poor Kenta will lose millions next season if he can't pitch.

I'm not talking this season for Sano Kepler I'm looking toward next season.

The Dodgers signed Maeda to that contract not the Twins. It was/is a somewhat unusual contract. This article is an interesting read.

https://www.mlb.com/news/kenta-maeda-signs-8-year-deal-with-dodgers-c161186204

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm on record saying that the Twins should look to trade Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler. Get what you can for them and replace them with less expensive free agents or prospects. You might be able to get something worthwhile for Donaldson and Sano. Kepler had interested suitors near the deadline.

I'd also explore trading Jorge Polanco, but for different reasons. I'm a big Polanco fan, and he's signed on a very team-friendly contract. He's going to bring back a legitimate building block or two if you move him this winter. There's no way he can replicate this type of year and you need to sell high on it if you're the Twins.

As for what the lineup looks like next year... I'm not entirely sure it matters. This club will be even worse next year so prepare for a developmental season and look to make moves for 2023.