The case for not having Kirilloff start out the year on the Twins roster.

[Jester1534]

As we know Kirilloff has service time has been what everyone has been talking about in spring training. I will give examples of why we should not give in and let him start the year as a Twin. This is not Fan view as I would love to see him. This entirely business move.

Example Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton has 2 years of service time left because the Twins decided not to call him up for September call up a couple years ago in a lost year. Reports are the Twins are trying to extend Buxton this spring. If they had not done what they did he would be a free agent after this year. Compare this to A DLO situation where we still do not know what full healthy year of Byron Buxton looks like. This was very criticized move at the time that going to pay off for the twins today. Especially with his most likely replacement Lewis going down with torn ACL. We could have been looking to replace a Centerfielder and Shortstop in free agency next year.


The Next Example is Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer was our number 1 prospect and was called up on Opening day and by that weekend he had tore his ACL and was lost for the year. Not only the year but the year of service time came off the books as well. You may ask yourself why does this matter? If the Twins held out Joe one Month, they would be saved at least 50 million on his big contract. Joe Mauer last Arbitration year was 2010. That year Joe hit .327 with 9 home runs with OPS of .871 and won another gold glove at catcher and had WAR of 5.9. He then Signed the infamous 8 year 184-million-dollar contract. Joe Mauer in 2011 hit .287 with 3 home runs and ops .729 with only 82 games played, which began his transition to first base. 3 years later we were paying premium catcher price for an average first basemen. This is all because we did not wait one month to call up Joe Mauer.

So, what should the Twins do about this conundrum? That worked out and also bit them in ass as well.

I would go with the Luis Robert approach. The more advance version of the Kepler deal but not insane like the Tatis deal. The White Sox gave an unproven guy they believed in 50 million. In return gives them 2 years of Free agency team options for 20 million with 1million dollar by outs. They basically bough Luis Robert two prime years at premium if he becomes the player he is supposed to be.

If you look at the Math yes in short term you do not benefit from the low arbitration cost but in long run you'll eventually save money. Let us look at Francisco Lindor since he is on the final year of arbitration. If we add 9 million due to covid last year in lost revenue has made exactly 50 million in his 7 years with the Indians. Yet he will eventually get paid 30 million plus these next two years by some team if not the Mets. If they Indians had signed him to the same type of deal, they would have 2 more years Lindor at 10 million less than he would go for today if not more cause the rates wouldn't been the same in 2015. Not only that but say Indians still wanted to shed payroll he would've fetched hell of a lot more than he did if he still had 2 years left on his contract.

Why does Kirilloff sign this deal? Its simple answer and its security. Even though he is giving up 20 million the back end he is guaranteeing himself of 50 million no mater what. Doesn't matter how he plays or fluke injuries his family is set up for next couple generations.

I am believer in Alex Kirilloff. I honestly believe he's going to be the twins 5 hitter for the next 8-10 years.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Great stuff, jester, and I agree with everything you said here except for one very minor detail and that's my belief that Alex Kirilloff is going to hit in the three-hole sooner rather than later. When it comes to the financial aspect you absolutely nailed it. Minnesota would be unwise to start Kirilloff on Opening Day without signing him to one of those Luis Robert or Evan Longoria deals. It's the right move for the long-term outlook of the franchise, 100-percent.

Here's a couple more thoughts and questions for you. What do the Twins do with Trevor Larnach, who I feel is almost as good and just as ready as Kirilloff? I believe in Larnach's potential as much as I do Kirilloff's, personally, but Minnesota has a glut of outfielders at the moment. How good can Max Kepler be? What could he bring back in a trade if the Twins looked to move him? These are the things I think about as I ponder Minnesota's future.

[Jester1534]

Great stuff, jester, and I agree with everything you said here except for one very minor detail and that's my belief that Alex Kirilloff is going to hit in the three-hole sooner rather than later. When it comes to the financial aspect you absolutely nailed it. Minnesota would be unwise to start Kirilloff on Opening Day without signing him to one of those Luis Robert or Evan Longoria deals. It's the right move for the long-term outlook of the franchise, 100-percent.

Here's a couple more thoughts and questions for you. What do the Twins do with Trevor Larnach, who I feel is almost as good and just as ready as Kirilloff? I believe in Larnach's potential as much as I do Kirilloff's, personally, but Minnesota has a glut of outfielders at the moment. How good can Max Kepler be? What could he bring back in a trade if the Twins looked to move him? These are the things I think about as I ponder Minnesota's future.

I've been told by people I trust that have seen Kirilloff play way more than me. That he is average corner outfielder but they believe he will be above average first basemen. So my guess what will happen is Cruz retires Sano goes to DH and Kiriloff to first and Larnach to Left field.

I still will not rule out Max Kepler for a bigger breakout this year. There is no data on this type of development cycle. His unusual circumstances of him from Germany theres never been a player like him. If doesnt click this year I would look for options to trade him.

[Monster]

Idk what he is doing in Spring training now but in my mind in terms of a pure baseball move I'm cool with him killing it in AAA and then moving up. Now if he is really tearing it up in Spring training and looks absolutely ready that's fine. I've seen some Twins players make the jump without really playing AAA and I've seen some guys that don't. For example Buxton struggled with the bat.

Financially...players and agents know if you played the service time thing. Do they calculate that into the way they work out a deal? If you don't screw them that way maybe they are more likely to get something done either earlier or later down the line.

To be the bottom line is if Kirilloff is really the stud many think he is I don't care that much about that year of service time either way.

It would be awesome if Larnach is the type of player Cam is suggesting. I do really like him.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

[youtube] https://youtu.be/HWp6a4atThU [/youtube]


Without hijacking the thread I'm sharing this here because I think Alex Kirilloff gets the bulk of the attention from most baseball fans that focus on prospects, but Trevor Larnach is on that same level with him, in my opinion as well as others. Tom Froemming does a good and quick job of comparing the two lefty outfielders.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Is that really a thing? I thought for sure it would be Rooker in Left. I am so busy trying to put together fake trades where the Wolves get rid of Blonde Ricky and the Mild get Jack Eichel, I have totally lost track of this.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Kirilloff hit a 420-foot bomb against a lefty hurler. We might be seeing a new franchise player bloom before our eyes.

https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1370079829354237956?s=21

[Jester1534]

Kirilloff hit a 420-foot bomb against a lefty hurler. We might be seeing a new franchise player bloom before our eyes.

https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1370079829354237956?s=21

Eddie who? As Michael Jordan would say the ceiling is the roof for this kid.

Side note at what age in your life are you allowed to call ball players in anysport kids? Always been a weird one for me.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Kirilloff hit a 420-foot bomb against a lefty hurler. We might be seeing a new franchise player bloom before our eyes.

https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1370079829354237956?s=21

Eddie who? As Michael Jordan would say the ceiling is the roof for this kid.

Side note at what age in your life are you allowed to call ball players in anysport kids? Always been a weird one for me.

I was an Eddie Rosario fan for many years and love what he grew into for Minnesota despite what the advanced metrics said about him. But yeah, there's no question that Alex Kirilloff, and even Trevor Larnach, are just more talented hitters with higher ceilings. I wish the Twins would have been able to find a trade for him last off-season versus simply non-tendering him, but oh well.

And for me I started calling professional athletes that were younger than me "kids" a long time ago so you're probably in the clear, jester!

[Monster]

Kirilloff hit a 420-foot bomb against a lefty hurler. We might be seeing a new franchise player bloom before our eyes.

https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1370079829354237956?s=21

Eddie who? As Michael Jordan would say the ceiling is the roof for this kid.

Side note at what age in your life are you allowed to call ball players in anysport kids? Always been a weird one for me.

I was an Eddie Rosario fan for many years and love what he grew into for Minnesota despite what the advanced metrics said about him. But yeah, there's no question that Alex Kirilloff, and even Trevor Larnach, are just more talented hitters with higher ceilings. I wish the Twins would have been able to find a trade for him last off-season versus simply non-tendering him, but oh well.

And for me I started calling professional athletes that were younger than me "kids" a long time ago so you're probably in the clear, jester!

I always like Larnach as I almost went and watched him play in the CWS that year. I went back and watched some video from the games. He looks more athletic than I remember. Wes Johnson was the pitching coach for Arkansas. OSU had 3 first round picks on the team and Nick Madrigil has already made a nice debut for the White Sox last year. Larnach was good including crushing the game winning HR in game 2 in the 9th inning for a whacky comeback that wouldn't have happened if Arkansas would have been able to catch a foul ball earlier in the inning. Larnach is a nice prospect and he doesn't get the same love that Kirilloff does but maybe that's ok. The Twins have some pretty good bats coming up through their system.