Jesters Annual offseason Plan 2021 Season edition

[Jester1534]

Thought I do my annual plan. Last year's payroll is hard because numbers are flubbed by COVID-19 but if I'm doing math right it was around 140-145 million pre COVID-19. Most people in the know think Payrolls will be cut anywhere between 20-30 percent depending on the team. For my scenario I will subtraction 20% of the Payroll from last year because were in a win now window. After arbitration for all our players were sitting at around 77 million which means the team has about so lets say we have about 40 million to spend on the season.

1st Very controversial but I would not resign Nelson Cruz. He is asking for a two-year deal. He will eventually fall apart because father time is undefeated. I think we saw the begging of it in September but people sugar coat it because he got the two hits in the playoffs. From September 2nd on Cruz batted .250 and Strike out Rate around the 30% mark with only 4 extra base hits.

2nd I would sign Michael Brantley for 3 years 45 million dollar deal. He can Immediately replace Cruz bat and all this man does hit .300 year after year. Plus he was 5.5 WAR last year. He also can still play Left field occasionally which the twins love to give guys days off. He would be perfect guy to bat in front or behind of Donaldson next year.

3rd I would sign Andrelton Simmons on a one year 8-10 million. This would move Polanco to the super utility role. This would sure up our middle infield and if you go back and look at Polanco's number, they're not great and he's coming off a 2nd ankle surgery. Simmons is also coming off surgery so he will most likely want a one year prove it deal. This also sures up the nonexistent hitting we got from Adrianza last year .191 avg with ops of .557 Yuck!

4th Very similar deal to Simmons but I would sign Kluber for one year 10-12 million. He has relationship with Falvey and I think there's still more in the tank for him. I think its worth a shot because 2-3 years ago this guy was the best pitcher in baseball. He will be looking to do what Donaldson did with the Braves and get a one year prove it deal. So he can get one last big pay day.

5th Platoon Left Field with Rooker and Kirilloff. Perfect platoon scenario right there. Make Jake Cave the 4th outfielder. What most likely is will see Kirilloff in May to avoid a year of service time with Cave getting his at bats.

6th Explore trading options for Mitch Garver for bullpen help. I believe Ryan Jeffers is ready to start. Jeffers ranked in the 90th percentile when it comes to stealing strikes. The problem is I have no idea what Garver value is. He went from batting like Piazza in his prime to not being able to hit a fastball.

7th Sign Tyler Clippard back on 1 year 3 million

*If they were to spend more than the 20 percent cut salary, I would sign Liam Hendricks to a 3 year 30 million dollar to sure up the bullpen. Then they could mix and match Rogers and Hendricks in the 9th inning.

This would put us with payroll around 117 million which is about what the twins projected payroll should be after COVID-19 this year.
Final roster
C Probably Garver if he cant be traded for something worth while
1b Sano
2nd base Arraez
SS Simmions
3rd Donaldson
Left Rooker and Kirilloff
Center Buxton
Right Kepler

Bench Jefferes, Cave, Astudillo, Polanco, Blankenhorn

SPs Maeda, Berrios, Kluber, Pineda, Dobnak

RPs Duffey, Alcala, Stashhak, Thielbar, Clippard, Colina, Smeltzer, One more Reliever spot
Closer Rogers

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Wow, good stuff here. My head isn't wrapped around baseball as much as basketball, but it's educational to read someone that is more of an expert.

[Monster]

I think it's a reasonable testament to this front office that we are basically just looking to eke the roster intact or doing sole supplements. It doesn't feel like we have giant holes to fill. Yes they need to get at least one pretty good starter but there are options. The pen doesn't need 3 or more guys to be signed or step up in the system for the team.

Basically what I'm saying is Jester laid out a Solid offseason and to some extent it isn't wildly sexy. Are the Twins contenders? Idk maybe not but they have a nice group to build from and they aren't paying a bunch of money to do it.

I really haven't been paying much attention to baseball offseason really It seems like there is a few things holding that back from really popping. I'll wait till the dust settles a bit and see what all happened.

[Jester1534]

Wow, good stuff here. My head isn't wrapped around baseball as much as basketball, but it's educational to read someone that is more of an expert.

Its how I feel when you guys talk usage rate and VORP etc lol. Basketball is just all eye test with me.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I don't hate this outcome, but I don't necessarily love it either -- no offense to you, jester. What I think we do agree on is that there should be some serious shuffling of parts this off-season. This team's core has been embarrassed two years in a row in the postseason, and that's not even taking into account the 18-game losing streak in the playoffs this franchise has in their pocket.

The Twins broke franchise records with a $142M payroll in 2020. It's not necessarily set in stone that this franchise will force their way into a huge payroll cut, especially with how they continued to pay all employees during the quarantine period, but I will predict they cut 10-percent off of their overall spending for a final payroll of about $127.8M, give or take. We've already seen some of those cuts come in the form of non-tendering Eddie Rosario and allowing Trevor May to walk in free agency.

As it sits now, the Twins have about $77.4M on their payroll. So, I'm assuming they're playing with roughly $50.4M this winter.

Additionally, I don't expect major deals to be made, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two members of this team's core dealt in a trade. I can envision a Twins team next year that does not include all of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco.

This is my off-season wishlist for the Twins using MLB Trade Rumors' projections for free agent contracts.

1. DH/OF Michael Brantley -- Two years, $28M

2. SP Jake Odorizzi -- Three years, $39M

3. SP James Paxton -- One year, $10M

4. RP Trevor Rosenthal -- Two years, $14M

5. RP Joakim Soria -- One year, $4M

Assuming those contracts are spread out equally at a flat rate, that would leave Minnesota at a $125.4M payroll for 2021.

Lineup:
1. Max Kepler - RF
2. Luis Arraez - 2B
3. Michael Brantley - DH
4. Josh Donaldson - 3B
5. Jorge Polanco - SS
6. Alex Kiriloff - LF
7. Miguel Sano - 1B
8. Ryan Jeffers - C
9. Byron Buxton - CF

Bench:
1. Jake Cave - OF
2. Mitch Garver - C/DH
3. Brent Rooker - OF/DH
4. Travis Blankenhorn - 2B/3B

Starting Rotation:
1. Kenta Maeda, RHP
2. Jose Berrios, RHP
3. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
4. James Paxton, LHP
5. Michael Pineda, RHP

Bullpen:
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal, RHP
Setup: Taylor Rogers, LHP
Setup: Joakim Soria, RHP
Middle Relief: Tyler Duffey, RHP
Middle Relief: Cody Stashak, RHP
Middle Relief: Caleb Thielbar, LHP
Middle Relief: Jorge Alcala, RHP
Long Relief: Randy Dobnak, RHP

[Jester1534]

I don't hate this outcome, but I don't necessarily love it either -- no offense to you, jester. What I think we do agree on is that there should be some serious shuffling of parts this off-season. This team's core has been embarrassed two years in a row in the postseason, and that's not even taking into account the 18-game losing streak in the playoffs this franchise has in their pocket.

The Twins broke franchise records with a $142M payroll in 2020. It's not necessarily set in stone that this franchise will force their way into a huge payroll cut, especially with how they continued to pay all employees during the quarantine period, but I will predict they cut 10-percent off of their overall spending for a final payroll of about $127.8M, give or take. We've already seen some of those cuts come in the form of non-tendering Eddie Rosario and allowing Trevor May to walk in free agency.

As it sits now, the Twins have about $77.4M on their payroll. So, I'm assuming they're playing with roughly $50.4M this winter.

Additionally, I don't expect major deals to be made, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two members of this team's core dealt in a trade. I can envision a Twins team next year that does not include all of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco.

This is my off-season wishlist for the Twins using MLB Trade Rumors' projections for free agent contracts.

1. DH/OF Michael Brantley -- Two years, $28M

2. SP Jake Odorizzi -- Three years, $39M

3. SP James Paxton -- One year, $10M

4. RP Trevor Rosenthal -- Two years, $14M

5. RP Joakim Soria -- One year, $4M


I like your plan but I'm curios on why you want to pay Odo 3 years 39 million? I dont see the appeal of a guy who had one great half a season with the club who has nothing but back problems and other injuries.
1. Max Kepler - RF
2. Luis Arraez - 2B
3. Michael Brantley - DH
4. Josh Donaldson - 3B
5. Jorge Polanco - SS
6. Alex Kiriloff - LF
7. Miguel Sano - 1B
8. Ryan Jeffers - C
9. Byron Buxton - CF

Bench:
1. Jake Cave - OF
2. Mitch Garver - C/DH
3. Brent Rooker - OF/DH
4. Travis Blankenhorn - 2B/3B

Starting Rotation:
1. Kenta Maeda, RHP
2. Jose Berrios, RHP
3. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
4. James Paxton, LHP
5. Michael Pineda, RHP

Bullpen:
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal, RHP
Setup: Taylor Rogers, LHP
Setup: Joakim Soria, RHP
Middle Relief: Tyler Duffey, RHP
Middle Relief: Cody Stashak, RHP
Middle Relief: Caleb Thielbar, LHP
Middle Relief: Jorge Alcala, RHP
Long Relief: Randy Dobnak, RHP

I like your plan but I'm curios on why you want to pay Odo 3 years 39 million? I dont see the appeal of a guy who had one great half a season with the club who has nothing but back problems and other injuries.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

This is my off-season wishlist for the Twins using MLB Trade Rumors' projections for free agent contracts.

I like your plan but I'm curios on why you want to pay Odo 3 years 39 million? I dont see the appeal of a guy who had one great half a season with the club who has nothing but back problems and other injuries.

The bolded is specifically why I said 3/39 for Odorizzi, but I also think he's worth close to that. He's a reliable mid-rotation starter that has a good track record of durability, keeping the ball in the park, and striking hitters out. He's very likely to have a handful of teams chasing him once Trevor Bauer is off the market.

[Monster]

This is my off-season wishlist for the Twins using MLB Trade Rumors' projections for free agent contracts.

I like your plan but I'm curios on why you want to pay Odo 3 years 39 million? I dont see the appeal of a guy who had one great half a season with the club who has nothing but back problems and other injuries.

The bolded is specifically why I said 3/39 for Odorizzi, but I also think he's worth close to that. He's a reliable mid-rotation starter that has a good track record of durability, keeping the ball in the park, and striking hitters out. He's very likely to have a handful of teams chasing him once Trevor Bauer is off the market.

I'd take Odo for that price unless there is some injury issue I don't know about. I think there are guys that get that kind of money all the time that I don't think are as good as he can be.

[bleedspeed]

Great discussion. I kind of have forgotten about baseball.

[Jester1534]

Stats 2017-2019
Player A
Era 4.44
Ks 460
HR given up 70
K/9 8.04
BB/9 3.41

Player B
ERA 4.12
Ks 479
HR given up 70
K/9 8.98
BB/9 3.50

Player A is Kyle Gibson and Player B is Odo

I think we tend to think Odo as a stable guy because the half year in 2019 when he was unbelievable and a allstar. I picked these stats because it shows a 3 year period that Odo is about as the same or a little bit of a notch better than Kyle Gibson. I think 13 mill a year can be used on something better than our 5th starting pitcher if they were to sign Paxton or Kluber.