You guys know I was very happy with the selection. The question is how fast will he rise through our system?
Right now he's batting .373 only 1 home run but more power should come as he develops. He's also 10-11 stealing bases so far this year.
Royce Lewis Watch
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bleedspeed
- Posts: 8161
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
I am excited to see him doing well. Sounds like we made the right pick.
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/royce-lewis-the-no-1-pick-from-2017-is-dominating-for-the-twins-in-the-minors
The Twins selected Lewis over a couple of other high profile picks, including right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who went second overall to the Reds. Greene is scheduled to pitch against Lewis and the Kernels on Tuesday.
Greene, also just 18 years old, has a 13.97 ERA in five starts this season.
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/royce-lewis-the-no-1-pick-from-2017-is-dominating-for-the-twins-in-the-minors
The Twins selected Lewis over a couple of other high profile picks, including right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who went second overall to the Reds. Greene is scheduled to pitch against Lewis and the Kernels on Tuesday.
Greene, also just 18 years old, has a 13.97 ERA in five starts this season.
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bleedspeed
- Posts: 8161
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/23634255/how-well-top-2017-draft-picks-turning-out
No. 1: SS/CF Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
Minor league translation to-date: .241/.292/.314, 9 steals in 353 at-bats
Lewis has done little so far to suggest he's not a top prospect, and while his K/BB rate has dropped a bit from his debut, he's still hitting .299/.351/.365 in a full-season league (Midwest) and doesn't turn 19 until next week. He's younger than every person ahead of him in the Midwest League in batting average.
Perhaps even more importantly, the questions about whether he could stay at shortstop long term have not been answered in the negative. The Twins certainly aren't burning with desire to move him to center field yet, and most reports have him generally progressing. ZiPS does give rough estimations of minor league defensive performance, and while you should take small samples of defensive data far less advanced than what we have in the majors with giant truckloads of salt, ZiPS estimates Lewis as only two runs worse than average at the position to date. ZiPS sees Lewis developing power, peaking as a 100 OPS+ shortstop with 15 home runs a year.
No. 2: RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Minor league translation to date: 6.18 ERA, 27 2/3 IP, 33 H, 5 HR, 18 BB, 29 K
Greene's actual ERA in 11 starts is 9.12, but ZiPS sees him as being rather unlucky there, with a BABIP above .500. Yes, as you go farther and farther from the majors, the ability to control BABIP starts to become more significant, but there are limits. It's worth noting that he hasn't been completely helpless at the plate in limited work there, with three extra-base hits among his 7-for-30 so far. The Reds have chosen to use him on the mound, but it doesn't take a lot of offense to add real offensive value as a pitcher. For example, Carlos Zambrano's .238/.248/.388 line is enough to add 5.6 WAR to his career line in 744 plate appearances.
No. 3: LHP MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres
Minor league translation to date: 4.01 ERA, 51 2/3 IP, 52H, 4 HR, 13 K, 30 K
Gore's debut last year was enough to rank him 12th in the ZiPS top 100 prospect ranking heading into the 2018 season. That was unusually high for ZiPS to rank a recent draftee without college experience. Unfortunately, plagued by blisters, Gore has made only three starts this year.
No. 4: LHP/1B Brendan McKay, Tampa Bay Rays
Minor league translation to date (batting): .197/.297/.297, 5 HR in 229 AB
Minor league translation to date (pitching): 4.89 ERA, 46 IP, 47 H, 8 HR, 12 BB, 48 K
So far, McKay's bat has been underwhelming for an advanced college bat, with a .236/.383/.349 untranslated line. Yes, walking a lot is nice, but walk-only offensive prospects tend to crash and burn at some point on their way up the ladder. On the other hand, his pitching has been dominant, with 71 strikeouts against seven walks and a 1.13 ERA across three levels, earning him his promotions.
No. 5: RHP Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves
Minor league translation to date: 4.97 ERA, 58 IP, 61 H, 4 HR, 34 BB, 47 K
Wright was supposed to be one of the more advanced pitchers coming out of the draft, and he was aggressively promoted as such after a solid 2017 debut. ZiPS is less than enthralled with his performance for Double-A Mississippi, with too many walks allowed for a player who is supposed to be relatively polished.
No. 6: OF Austin Beck, Oakland Athletics
Minor league translation to date: .189/.231/.254, 127 K in 338 AB
A tools-oriented prep pick out of North Carolina, Beck's performance reflects a player who is still extremely raw. ZiPS doesn't even like his defensive range so far (note the amount of salt required from my note above), seeing only his arm as a plus. There's still plenty of time, but ZiPS projects his peak season in the majors so far as a .204/.258/.329 line.
No. 7: 1B Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor league translation to date: .237/.312/.321, 2 HR in 335 AB
Smith was not expected to be a big power hitter, and he hasn't been, with only three professional home runs so far. He does make good contact and has struck out less than he has walked, but a .216/.326/.338 line is absolutely bleak for a first-base prospect in the California League. He can't even claim to be young for his level; a 22-year-old hitting prospect has to actually hit in environments like this.
No. 8: OF Adam Haseley, Philadelphia Phillies
Minor league translation to date: .232/.278/.335, 6 HR in 406 AB
The good news is that Haseley has been hot, getting hits in 12 of his past 14 games and hitting .352/.417/.519 over that period. But as a 22-year-old, he ought to be hitting in high-A ball. ZiPS sees him as a fourth-outfielder type, peaking with OPS+ numbers in the high 80s/low 90s with some triples sprinkled in. That has value as long as a team can trust him in center field; if it can't, he can still get a $28.5 million deal with the Rockies someday.
No. 9: 2B Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers
Minor league translation to date: .275/.321/.415, 34 extra-base hits in 364 AB
Hiura was one of the bigger disagreements between ZiPS and Keith Law this winter, with ZiPS ranking him 97th and Keith at 35th. So far, Keith appears to be closer, with ZiPS moving toward his thinking offensively. ZiPS sees Hiura as an .800 OPS hitter in the majors at some point, the remaining question being his defensive position.
No. 10: OF Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
Minor league translation to date: .242/.283/.391, 9 HR and 4 triples in 330 AB
Turning only 19 in April, Adell destroyed the Midwest League early this year, slugging .611 and getting a quick promotion to high-A. Adell still a relatively free-swinger, but ZiPS is growing increasingly confident in his chances at hitting a lot of homers in the majors -- his comp list now includes many interesting names, including Adam Jones, Matt Kemp and Sammy Sosa. Not all the names on the list worked out well (Rob Ducey, Braulio Castillo), but he's also a guy with just two weeks in the California League.
No. 14: 1B Nick Pratto, Kansas City Royals
Minor league translation to date: .197/.243/.301 with 149 K's in 385 AB
Pratto has shown power, but he has also been playing at Whitaker Bank Ballpark in Lexington, one of the top 10 minor league parks in terms of homer-friendliness (Greensboro is No. 1, for those who are curious). Contact is a problem, and while ZiPS has Pratto above replacement level at his peak, it's just barely, with a .223/.283/.422 peak projection with 200 strikeouts.
No. 17: 1B Evan White, Seattle Mariners
Minor league translation to date: .239/.298/.345 with 5 HR in 226 AB
You want to see a first-base prospect slug better than .409 in the California League, but White makes decent contact and doesn't have major flaws in his offensive game. And his strong defensive reputation has shown up already in the stats so far, with ZiPS placing him as a plus-3 defender so far, enough to project him as a plus-5 defender long term. (For the last time when referring to minor league defensive numbers, I'm going to reference the massive amount of salt to take it with.) ZiPS has White peaking as a .260-.270 hitter with 10 to 15 home runs a year, but he will need a bit more to be an above-average starter.
No. 18: RHP Alex Faedo, Detroit Tigers
Minor league translation to-date: 4.95 ERA, 43.2 IP, 49 H, 5 HR, 15 BB, 29 K
Drafted out of the University of Florida, the Tigers held Faedo out of the minors for the rest of 2017 after he threw 123 2/3 innings for the College World Series-winning Gators, reasoning that he had already pitched a full year. His line so far with Lakeland isn't stunning, but it's enough that you can say he's over that professional hump, even if the velocity isn't there yet. Remember, he's getting a fairly normal starting-pitcher's workload, not the three- or four-inning "break-in" you see a lot with pitching prospects.
No. 19: OF Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
Minor league translation to date: .216/.269/.359, 7 HR and 128 K in 301 AB
Law felt that Ramos would hit 25 to 30 homers a year, enough to justify his being a major leaguer if he doesn't stick at center field long term. ZiPS agrees, giving him a long prime of 25 to 30 homers a year. Among Ramos' comps in ZiPS, on the good side, are Franklin Gutierrez, Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin at similar points in their careers (they didn't all develop power). So far, ZiPS is not optimistic about his developing patience at the plate.
No. 20: LHP David Peterson, New York Mets
Minor league translation to date: 4.25 ERA, 36.0 IP, 37 H, 3 HR, 15 BB, 27 K
He's probably not quite this good yet, but at 23 years old in September and drafted out of college, you would expect him to look fairly polished in the Sally League. Peterson doesn't have a big fastball -- he looks like he should, though -- so the larger test is when he's promoted, as the Mets haven't been very ambitious with him as of yet.
No. 21: LHP D.L. Hall, Baltimore Orioles
Minor league translation to date: 8.33 ERA, 27 IP, 30 H, 4 HR, 36 BB, 24 K
Hall's control is a work in progress. Given that he's 19, he still can add velocity. Baltimore can afford to be patient with Hall -- the O's aren't likely to be contenders for a while.
No. 22: SS Logan Warmoth, Toronto Blue Jays
Minor league translation to date: .224/.268/.300, 7 SB, 13 2B in 343 AB
I was hoping for a bit more power from Warmoth, who hit 10 homers in 63 games in his final season at UNC. He isn't making up for it with contact, hitting only .243 for Dunedin. Warmoth wasn't drafted as a top defensive shortstop, either, and ZiPS has him at minus-3 over 73 games at the position. Right now, ZiPS sees Warmoth peaking at a .240/.290/.350 with eight to 10 homers a year, enough to get him a utility job for a few years if he shows he can be versatile, but not more than that. Which would be a shame, because "War Moth" has great nickname potential.
No. 23: CF Jeren Kendall, Los Angeles Dodgers
Minor league translation to date: .194/.256/.326, 7 triples, 16 steals in 319 AB
Kendall struck out a lot in college (196 strikeouts in 184 games), and that has continued, with a 30 percent strikeout rate in the minors. His speed has also come as advertised, his speed score from his minor league performance putting him at a level that would be in the top 5 percent of major leaguers. ZiPS puts him as a plus-6 defender so far in center field. While there are a few encouraging names in his ZiPS comps list (Grady Sizemore, notably), there are also a lot of Jordan Schafer and Todd Dunwoody types in there. The projections never put him as better than a .220 hitter.
No. 24: RHP Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
Minor league translation to date: 7.49 ERA, 57 2/3 IP, 73 H, 11 HR, 47 BB, 39 K
When you see articles about how the parent franchise is willing to be patient, you know a first-round prospect's first year in the minors hasn't gone smoothly. Walking 31 batters in 41 innings is a concern for a 19-year-old with a ton of strikeouts, but it's much more so for a soon-to-be 22-year-old with just a 6.6 K/9. For those thinking he has a future in relief, it's at least worth noting he has held the opposing team scoreless in seven of his nine first innings.
No. 27 LHP Brendon Little, Chicago Cubs
Minor league translation to date: 6.49 ERA, 51 1/3 IP, 64 H, 9 HR, 21 BB, 32 K
The consensus among prospect-watchers going into the draft was that Little wasn't as polished as some of the other college starting pitchers in the early rounds. He hasn't been terrible but just a little worse that you'd like to see across the board. Law speculated last year that Little's fastball didn't have enough life, and you're seeing that in the stats to a degree; he isn't dominating hitters, and he's allowing a lot of fly balls. Seven homers is too many for 50 innings in the low minors.
No. 30: RHP Alex Lange, Chicago Cubs
Minor league translation to date: 3.97 ERA, 47 2/3 IP, 50 H, 3 HR, 16 BB, 36 K
On the flip side, ZiPS couldn't be happier about Lange's first professional season, now projecting him significantly above Little -- enough that his future WAR projection right now would have put him in the ZiPS top 100 this winter. ZiPS sees Lange peaking as a 105-110 ERA+ midrotation starter for a while, though without a high upside.
No. 32: SS Jeter Downs, Cincinnati Reds
Minor league translation to date: .218/.284/.327, 8 HR, 14 steals in 376 AB
Downs is the prospect who makes me feel the oldest (maybe after Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), as he was named for Derek Jeter, who debuted when I was almost an adult. I was a bit disappointed Jeter didn't show up highly in his comp list, but a player who came up with the original Jeter, D'Angelo Jimenez, places No. 1. Which isn't something to be sad about; Jimenez was a legitimate top prospect who had an unfortunate detour due to a back injury stemming from a car accident. ZiPS sees Downs as maxing out as a .260/.330/.420 hitter with 15 to 20 stolen bases and homers a year, which is perfectly fine, especially if he can stay on the challenging side of the defensive spectrum.
No. 33: SS Kevin Merrell, Oakland Athletics
Minor league translation to date: .238/.270/.276, 1 HR, 89 K in 320 AB
Merrell was supposed to at least be a contact hitter, but 51 strikeouts against 12 walks in just 204 California League plate appearances doesn't reflect that. ZiPS doesn't see enough upside for Merrell to make the majors; he's fast enough to steal 15 to 20 stolen bases a year, but ZiPS sees his OBP peaking at around .280 and him never hitting more than three homers in a major league season. He won't make up for that with Gold Glove defense.
No. 34: OF Tristen Lutz, Milwaukee Brewers
Minor league translation to date: .202/.261/.349, 11 HR in 327 AB
He was supposed to have impressive raw power, and that has worked out well enough that he could probably hit 20 homers a year in the majors right now. Of course, at this point, he'd also probably hit .200 and strike out 200 times to do it. The Timber Rattlers have been mostly playing Zach Clark in center these days, so the verdict on whether Lutz can at least fake center well enough to be a fourth outfielder is still out. Lutz's top offensive comp was the imposing Fernando Seguignol, who had a short minor league career but went on to hit 177 homers in Japan. For those who remember the Panamanian Pulverizer, the thought of Seguignol trying to play center field is quite amusing.
No. 35: OF/1B Brent Rooker, Minnesota Twins
Minor league translation to date: .225/.276/.427, 22 HR in 417 AB
Rooker is arguably the most projectable of last year's first-rounders as a 23-year-old, bat-only prospect who already has significant playing time in Double-A ball. ZiPS is confident Rooker can be a 30-homer hitter in the majors, but a 30-homer hitter hitting .230 with an OBP in the .280s. That makes him a poor man's Chris Carter, which isn't quite enough to be a starter.
No. 36: OF Brian Miller, Miami Marlins
Minor league translation to date: .278/.325/.328, no homers but 27 steals in 421 AB
ZiPS doesn't see a lot of upside from Miller due to the lack of power, but if he can continue to make progress in center enough that he can play it in the majors, there are all sorts of players in his ZiPS comp list who had careers -- most notably Juan Pierre and Rick Manning. ZiPS actually has him as a plus-7 defender per 150 games in center right now with a below-average arm; if he's within five runs of that, he'll have an MLB career.
No. 1: SS/CF Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
Minor league translation to-date: .241/.292/.314, 9 steals in 353 at-bats
Lewis has done little so far to suggest he's not a top prospect, and while his K/BB rate has dropped a bit from his debut, he's still hitting .299/.351/.365 in a full-season league (Midwest) and doesn't turn 19 until next week. He's younger than every person ahead of him in the Midwest League in batting average.
Perhaps even more importantly, the questions about whether he could stay at shortstop long term have not been answered in the negative. The Twins certainly aren't burning with desire to move him to center field yet, and most reports have him generally progressing. ZiPS does give rough estimations of minor league defensive performance, and while you should take small samples of defensive data far less advanced than what we have in the majors with giant truckloads of salt, ZiPS estimates Lewis as only two runs worse than average at the position to date. ZiPS sees Lewis developing power, peaking as a 100 OPS+ shortstop with 15 home runs a year.
No. 2: RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Minor league translation to date: 6.18 ERA, 27 2/3 IP, 33 H, 5 HR, 18 BB, 29 K
Greene's actual ERA in 11 starts is 9.12, but ZiPS sees him as being rather unlucky there, with a BABIP above .500. Yes, as you go farther and farther from the majors, the ability to control BABIP starts to become more significant, but there are limits. It's worth noting that he hasn't been completely helpless at the plate in limited work there, with three extra-base hits among his 7-for-30 so far. The Reds have chosen to use him on the mound, but it doesn't take a lot of offense to add real offensive value as a pitcher. For example, Carlos Zambrano's .238/.248/.388 line is enough to add 5.6 WAR to his career line in 744 plate appearances.
No. 3: LHP MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres
Minor league translation to date: 4.01 ERA, 51 2/3 IP, 52H, 4 HR, 13 K, 30 K
Gore's debut last year was enough to rank him 12th in the ZiPS top 100 prospect ranking heading into the 2018 season. That was unusually high for ZiPS to rank a recent draftee without college experience. Unfortunately, plagued by blisters, Gore has made only three starts this year.
No. 4: LHP/1B Brendan McKay, Tampa Bay Rays
Minor league translation to date (batting): .197/.297/.297, 5 HR in 229 AB
Minor league translation to date (pitching): 4.89 ERA, 46 IP, 47 H, 8 HR, 12 BB, 48 K
So far, McKay's bat has been underwhelming for an advanced college bat, with a .236/.383/.349 untranslated line. Yes, walking a lot is nice, but walk-only offensive prospects tend to crash and burn at some point on their way up the ladder. On the other hand, his pitching has been dominant, with 71 strikeouts against seven walks and a 1.13 ERA across three levels, earning him his promotions.
No. 5: RHP Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves
Minor league translation to date: 4.97 ERA, 58 IP, 61 H, 4 HR, 34 BB, 47 K
Wright was supposed to be one of the more advanced pitchers coming out of the draft, and he was aggressively promoted as such after a solid 2017 debut. ZiPS is less than enthralled with his performance for Double-A Mississippi, with too many walks allowed for a player who is supposed to be relatively polished.
No. 6: OF Austin Beck, Oakland Athletics
Minor league translation to date: .189/.231/.254, 127 K in 338 AB
A tools-oriented prep pick out of North Carolina, Beck's performance reflects a player who is still extremely raw. ZiPS doesn't even like his defensive range so far (note the amount of salt required from my note above), seeing only his arm as a plus. There's still plenty of time, but ZiPS projects his peak season in the majors so far as a .204/.258/.329 line.
No. 7: 1B Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor league translation to date: .237/.312/.321, 2 HR in 335 AB
Smith was not expected to be a big power hitter, and he hasn't been, with only three professional home runs so far. He does make good contact and has struck out less than he has walked, but a .216/.326/.338 line is absolutely bleak for a first-base prospect in the California League. He can't even claim to be young for his level; a 22-year-old hitting prospect has to actually hit in environments like this.
No. 8: OF Adam Haseley, Philadelphia Phillies
Minor league translation to date: .232/.278/.335, 6 HR in 406 AB
The good news is that Haseley has been hot, getting hits in 12 of his past 14 games and hitting .352/.417/.519 over that period. But as a 22-year-old, he ought to be hitting in high-A ball. ZiPS sees him as a fourth-outfielder type, peaking with OPS+ numbers in the high 80s/low 90s with some triples sprinkled in. That has value as long as a team can trust him in center field; if it can't, he can still get a $28.5 million deal with the Rockies someday.
No. 9: 2B Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers
Minor league translation to date: .275/.321/.415, 34 extra-base hits in 364 AB
Hiura was one of the bigger disagreements between ZiPS and Keith Law this winter, with ZiPS ranking him 97th and Keith at 35th. So far, Keith appears to be closer, with ZiPS moving toward his thinking offensively. ZiPS sees Hiura as an .800 OPS hitter in the majors at some point, the remaining question being his defensive position.
No. 10: OF Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
Minor league translation to date: .242/.283/.391, 9 HR and 4 triples in 330 AB
Turning only 19 in April, Adell destroyed the Midwest League early this year, slugging .611 and getting a quick promotion to high-A. Adell still a relatively free-swinger, but ZiPS is growing increasingly confident in his chances at hitting a lot of homers in the majors -- his comp list now includes many interesting names, including Adam Jones, Matt Kemp and Sammy Sosa. Not all the names on the list worked out well (Rob Ducey, Braulio Castillo), but he's also a guy with just two weeks in the California League.
No. 14: 1B Nick Pratto, Kansas City Royals
Minor league translation to date: .197/.243/.301 with 149 K's in 385 AB
Pratto has shown power, but he has also been playing at Whitaker Bank Ballpark in Lexington, one of the top 10 minor league parks in terms of homer-friendliness (Greensboro is No. 1, for those who are curious). Contact is a problem, and while ZiPS has Pratto above replacement level at his peak, it's just barely, with a .223/.283/.422 peak projection with 200 strikeouts.
No. 17: 1B Evan White, Seattle Mariners
Minor league translation to date: .239/.298/.345 with 5 HR in 226 AB
You want to see a first-base prospect slug better than .409 in the California League, but White makes decent contact and doesn't have major flaws in his offensive game. And his strong defensive reputation has shown up already in the stats so far, with ZiPS placing him as a plus-3 defender so far, enough to project him as a plus-5 defender long term. (For the last time when referring to minor league defensive numbers, I'm going to reference the massive amount of salt to take it with.) ZiPS has White peaking as a .260-.270 hitter with 10 to 15 home runs a year, but he will need a bit more to be an above-average starter.
No. 18: RHP Alex Faedo, Detroit Tigers
Minor league translation to-date: 4.95 ERA, 43.2 IP, 49 H, 5 HR, 15 BB, 29 K
Drafted out of the University of Florida, the Tigers held Faedo out of the minors for the rest of 2017 after he threw 123 2/3 innings for the College World Series-winning Gators, reasoning that he had already pitched a full year. His line so far with Lakeland isn't stunning, but it's enough that you can say he's over that professional hump, even if the velocity isn't there yet. Remember, he's getting a fairly normal starting-pitcher's workload, not the three- or four-inning "break-in" you see a lot with pitching prospects.
No. 19: OF Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
Minor league translation to date: .216/.269/.359, 7 HR and 128 K in 301 AB
Law felt that Ramos would hit 25 to 30 homers a year, enough to justify his being a major leaguer if he doesn't stick at center field long term. ZiPS agrees, giving him a long prime of 25 to 30 homers a year. Among Ramos' comps in ZiPS, on the good side, are Franklin Gutierrez, Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin at similar points in their careers (they didn't all develop power). So far, ZiPS is not optimistic about his developing patience at the plate.
No. 20: LHP David Peterson, New York Mets
Minor league translation to date: 4.25 ERA, 36.0 IP, 37 H, 3 HR, 15 BB, 27 K
He's probably not quite this good yet, but at 23 years old in September and drafted out of college, you would expect him to look fairly polished in the Sally League. Peterson doesn't have a big fastball -- he looks like he should, though -- so the larger test is when he's promoted, as the Mets haven't been very ambitious with him as of yet.
No. 21: LHP D.L. Hall, Baltimore Orioles
Minor league translation to date: 8.33 ERA, 27 IP, 30 H, 4 HR, 36 BB, 24 K
Hall's control is a work in progress. Given that he's 19, he still can add velocity. Baltimore can afford to be patient with Hall -- the O's aren't likely to be contenders for a while.
No. 22: SS Logan Warmoth, Toronto Blue Jays
Minor league translation to date: .224/.268/.300, 7 SB, 13 2B in 343 AB
I was hoping for a bit more power from Warmoth, who hit 10 homers in 63 games in his final season at UNC. He isn't making up for it with contact, hitting only .243 for Dunedin. Warmoth wasn't drafted as a top defensive shortstop, either, and ZiPS has him at minus-3 over 73 games at the position. Right now, ZiPS sees Warmoth peaking at a .240/.290/.350 with eight to 10 homers a year, enough to get him a utility job for a few years if he shows he can be versatile, but not more than that. Which would be a shame, because "War Moth" has great nickname potential.
No. 23: CF Jeren Kendall, Los Angeles Dodgers
Minor league translation to date: .194/.256/.326, 7 triples, 16 steals in 319 AB
Kendall struck out a lot in college (196 strikeouts in 184 games), and that has continued, with a 30 percent strikeout rate in the minors. His speed has also come as advertised, his speed score from his minor league performance putting him at a level that would be in the top 5 percent of major leaguers. ZiPS puts him as a plus-6 defender so far in center field. While there are a few encouraging names in his ZiPS comps list (Grady Sizemore, notably), there are also a lot of Jordan Schafer and Todd Dunwoody types in there. The projections never put him as better than a .220 hitter.
No. 24: RHP Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
Minor league translation to date: 7.49 ERA, 57 2/3 IP, 73 H, 11 HR, 47 BB, 39 K
When you see articles about how the parent franchise is willing to be patient, you know a first-round prospect's first year in the minors hasn't gone smoothly. Walking 31 batters in 41 innings is a concern for a 19-year-old with a ton of strikeouts, but it's much more so for a soon-to-be 22-year-old with just a 6.6 K/9. For those thinking he has a future in relief, it's at least worth noting he has held the opposing team scoreless in seven of his nine first innings.
No. 27 LHP Brendon Little, Chicago Cubs
Minor league translation to date: 6.49 ERA, 51 1/3 IP, 64 H, 9 HR, 21 BB, 32 K
The consensus among prospect-watchers going into the draft was that Little wasn't as polished as some of the other college starting pitchers in the early rounds. He hasn't been terrible but just a little worse that you'd like to see across the board. Law speculated last year that Little's fastball didn't have enough life, and you're seeing that in the stats to a degree; he isn't dominating hitters, and he's allowing a lot of fly balls. Seven homers is too many for 50 innings in the low minors.
No. 30: RHP Alex Lange, Chicago Cubs
Minor league translation to date: 3.97 ERA, 47 2/3 IP, 50 H, 3 HR, 16 BB, 36 K
On the flip side, ZiPS couldn't be happier about Lange's first professional season, now projecting him significantly above Little -- enough that his future WAR projection right now would have put him in the ZiPS top 100 this winter. ZiPS sees Lange peaking as a 105-110 ERA+ midrotation starter for a while, though without a high upside.
No. 32: SS Jeter Downs, Cincinnati Reds
Minor league translation to date: .218/.284/.327, 8 HR, 14 steals in 376 AB
Downs is the prospect who makes me feel the oldest (maybe after Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), as he was named for Derek Jeter, who debuted when I was almost an adult. I was a bit disappointed Jeter didn't show up highly in his comp list, but a player who came up with the original Jeter, D'Angelo Jimenez, places No. 1. Which isn't something to be sad about; Jimenez was a legitimate top prospect who had an unfortunate detour due to a back injury stemming from a car accident. ZiPS sees Downs as maxing out as a .260/.330/.420 hitter with 15 to 20 stolen bases and homers a year, which is perfectly fine, especially if he can stay on the challenging side of the defensive spectrum.
No. 33: SS Kevin Merrell, Oakland Athletics
Minor league translation to date: .238/.270/.276, 1 HR, 89 K in 320 AB
Merrell was supposed to at least be a contact hitter, but 51 strikeouts against 12 walks in just 204 California League plate appearances doesn't reflect that. ZiPS doesn't see enough upside for Merrell to make the majors; he's fast enough to steal 15 to 20 stolen bases a year, but ZiPS sees his OBP peaking at around .280 and him never hitting more than three homers in a major league season. He won't make up for that with Gold Glove defense.
No. 34: OF Tristen Lutz, Milwaukee Brewers
Minor league translation to date: .202/.261/.349, 11 HR in 327 AB
He was supposed to have impressive raw power, and that has worked out well enough that he could probably hit 20 homers a year in the majors right now. Of course, at this point, he'd also probably hit .200 and strike out 200 times to do it. The Timber Rattlers have been mostly playing Zach Clark in center these days, so the verdict on whether Lutz can at least fake center well enough to be a fourth outfielder is still out. Lutz's top offensive comp was the imposing Fernando Seguignol, who had a short minor league career but went on to hit 177 homers in Japan. For those who remember the Panamanian Pulverizer, the thought of Seguignol trying to play center field is quite amusing.
No. 35: OF/1B Brent Rooker, Minnesota Twins
Minor league translation to date: .225/.276/.427, 22 HR in 417 AB
Rooker is arguably the most projectable of last year's first-rounders as a 23-year-old, bat-only prospect who already has significant playing time in Double-A ball. ZiPS is confident Rooker can be a 30-homer hitter in the majors, but a 30-homer hitter hitting .230 with an OBP in the .280s. That makes him a poor man's Chris Carter, which isn't quite enough to be a starter.
No. 36: OF Brian Miller, Miami Marlins
Minor league translation to date: .278/.325/.328, no homers but 27 steals in 421 AB
ZiPS doesn't see a lot of upside from Miller due to the lack of power, but if he can continue to make progress in center enough that he can play it in the majors, there are all sorts of players in his ZiPS comp list who had careers -- most notably Juan Pierre and Rick Manning. ZiPS actually has him as a plus-7 defender per 150 games in center right now with a below-average arm; if he's within five runs of that, he'll have an MLB career.
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bleedspeed
- Posts: 8161
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
Fixing Royce Lewis's swing?
http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/can-the-twins-fix-royce-lewis%e2%80%99s-swing-r8734
http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/can-the-twins-fix-royce-lewis%e2%80%99s-swing-r8734
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
- Posts: 18065
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
Royce Lewis is set to miss the 2021 season with a torn ACL. Oh, man. Can this kid catch a break? Can Minnesota have nice things? Fuck.
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
Camden0916 wrote:Royce Lewis is set to miss the 2021 season with a torn ACL. Oh, man. Can this kid catch a break? Can Minnesota have nice things? Fuck.
That's a shame and it also may mean they will need to have an option for 2022 as Lewis may not be ready at that point. Hopefully he gets back healthy ready to go. He should at least be able to work on his swing months leading up to when he is fully healthy.
A possible positive is it gives someone else a chance to shine. It may also mean someone comes up and struggles which hurts the team. Polonco may have to move back to SS if nobody is up to the which would hurt the defense. Possibly at 2 positions.
Also what do they do with a spot on the 40 man roster? Do they just see who may deserve it or do they maybe add someone for depth? Will Nick Gordon get a shot at playing in the bigs this season? I haven't given up on him being a solid worthwhile player.
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
monsterpile wrote:Camden0916 wrote:Royce Lewis is set to miss the 2021 season with a torn ACL. Oh, man. Can this kid catch a break? Can Minnesota have nice things? Fuck.
That's a shame and it also may mean they will need to have an option for 2022 as Lewis may not be ready at that point. Hopefully he gets back healthy ready to go. He should at least be able to work on his swing months leading up to when he is fully healthy.
A possible positive is it gives someone else a chance to shine. It may also mean someone comes up and struggles which hurts the team. Polonco may have to move back to SS if nobody is up to the which would hurt the defense. Possibly at 2 positions.
Also what do they do with a spot on the 40 man roster? Do they just see who may deserve it or do they maybe add someone for depth? Will Nick Gordon get a shot at playing in the bigs this season? I haven't given up on him being a solid worthwhile player.
My God, what terrible news...I feel really bad for the kid. I guess the news is softened a little by signing the best defensive SS in baseball, but it would have been better to have Royce developing in AAA all year. Now I wonder if they try to lock up Simmons for a second year.
On the more positive side, I love the SS depth in this organization. Simmons, Polanco and Arraez in the bigs, and Lewis, Javier, Gordon and Cavaco all interesting prospects. And to top it off, they just signed another 7 shortstops last month in the International draft. Some of these guys will make it with us, and some will bomb out...but others could be terrific trade material down the line. The SS cupboard is far from empty.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
- Posts: 18065
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
monsterpile wrote:Camden0916 wrote:Royce Lewis is set to miss the 2021 season with a torn ACL. Oh, man. Can this kid catch a break? Can Minnesota have nice things? Fuck.
That's a shame and it also may mean they will need to have an option for 2022 as Lewis may not be ready at that point. Hopefully he gets back healthy ready to go. He should at least be able to work on his swing months leading up to when he is fully healthy.
A possible positive is it gives someone else a chance to shine. It may also mean someone comes up and struggles which hurts the team. Polonco may have to move back to SS if nobody is up to the which would hurt the defense. Possibly at 2 positions.
Also what do they do with a spot on the 40 man roster? Do they just see who may deserve it or do they maybe add someone for depth? Will Nick Gordon get a shot at playing in the bigs this season? I haven't given up on him being a solid worthwhile player.
I tend to wonder if this makes Minnesota a free agent contender for Trevor Story. I think this injury and his up-and-down minor league career takes some of the shine off Royce Lewis.
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Jester1534
- Posts: 3538
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
Camden wrote:monsterpile wrote:Camden0916 wrote:Royce Lewis is set to miss the 2021 season with a torn ACL. Oh, man. Can this kid catch a break? Can Minnesota have nice things? Fuck.
That's a shame and it also may mean they will need to have an option for 2022 as Lewis may not be ready at that point. Hopefully he gets back healthy ready to go. He should at least be able to work on his swing months leading up to when he is fully healthy.
A possible positive is it gives someone else a chance to shine. It may also mean someone comes up and struggles which hurts the team. Polonco may have to move back to SS if nobody is up to the which would hurt the defense. Possibly at 2 positions.
Also what do they do with a spot on the 40 man roster? Do they just see who may deserve it or do they maybe add someone for depth? Will Nick Gordon get a shot at playing in the bigs this season? I haven't given up on him being a solid worthwhile player.
I tend to wonder if this makes Minnesota a free agent contender for Trevor Story. I think this injury and his up-and-down minor league career takes some of the shine off Royce Lewis.
Honestly this Injury probably means that he will not play Shortstop in the majors. He will eventually become Buxton replacment in Centerfiled. I dont mean to be this way but out of our up incoming minor league guys Royce had the littlest effect on the team for this season.
What I'm sad about is I wont get to watch him at Saints games. You better bet everytime Duran takes the mound this year that I will be there to watch him pitch.
The Twins have payroll of 51 mil going into 2022 so they have the flexibility to do whatever they want next year. Also ive heard grumblings the Twins are close to agreeing with the city to let them have 10,000 people be at the ball park this year.
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bleedspeed
- Posts: 8161
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Royce Lewis Watch
I am not sure how to feel. It sucks for Lewis, but the big club likely won't be impacted. It will be interesting how it hinders development though.