Jim Mora playoffs thread

[60WinTim]

We wouldn't be in this situation if the Wolves could have avoided the klunker to the Nets, or weren't robbed of the win over the Celtics. They stand at 9th in the KOM, but are just one game out of 6th. An anti-klunker against Bulls puts them right back into a tie for the 6th seed!

Code: Select all

Klunk-O-Meter

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Kings,Nuggets

Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses	Klunks	Anti-Ks
2.	Griz	54	28	3	0
3.	Kings	54	28	3	0
4.	Clips	44	38	1	2
5.	Lakers	42	40	3	5
6.	Suns	41	41	1	3
7.	Mavs	41	41	4	1
8.	Wars	41	41	1	1
9.	Wolves	40	42	3	5
10.	Pels	39	43	3	2
11.	Thunder	39	43	2	1
12.	Jazz	38	44	1	1
13.	Blazers	37	45	3	1

* - Klunkers / Anti-Klunkers since a few games before the All-Star Break

[Carlos Danger]

Of the remaining 12 games, only 5 of those are teams currently with winning records. Of course, a lot of the remaining schedule will be played on the road. But still... a lot of winnable games left.

[FNG]

Of the remaining 12 games, only 5 of those are teams currently with winning records. Of course, a lot of the remaining schedule will be played on the road. But still... a lot of winnable games left.

I have us winning 6 of those remaining games, and Tim has us winning 5...I suspect the difference is I have us winning tonight's game and he likely does not. I also have us finishing 9th, one game ahead of the Pelicans, but there are some differences between Tim's forecast and mine (Tim has the Kings winning 12 of their last 13 games). I still have the same three teams not making the play in (I don't think that will change) and a logjam at 5-10, but some separation is happening at 2-4. Here's my forecast:

2.Griz 50
3.Kings 48
4.Suns 45
5.Clips 43
6.Lakers 42
7.Mavs 42
8.GS 42
9.Wolves 41
10.Pels 40

11. OkC 39
12. Port 38
13. Jazz 38

We would host a play in game against the Pels (assuming we beat them in the last game of the season at home) and then also have to beat the loser of the Mavs/GS game in order to get the 8th seed. Not good enough for me. We need a few Anti-Klunkers badly!

[60WinTim]

Highly entertaining game with Dallas beating the Lakers on a 3-point buzzer beater. It really doesn't make much difference in the KOM -- Dallas and LA swap positions in the standings. But it is always fun to see LA lose! ;-)

[FNG]

Highly entertaining game with Dallas beating the Lakers on a 3-point buzzer beater. It really doesn't make much difference in the KOM -- Dallas and LA swap positions in the standings. But it is always fun to see LA lose! ;-)

Yeah, I love to see the Lakers lose too...still bitter about them leaving Minneapolis :furious: .

The Ant injury and subsequent loss put a huge damper on what otherwise would have been a terrific night...the Warriors, Pels, and Trailblazers all lose. The uncertainty around Ant's injury makes our playoff chances impossible to predict. I went to bed last night thinking the season was over, but tonight I'm not too sure. I think your prediction model is the same as mine now, and has the Wolves losing 5 of their next 6 games, so the chance of an Anti-Klunker in the next two weeks is rather low...I think this team is too talented to lose 8 games in a row. But it's absolutely imperative that Ant is ready to play by the Lakers game on 3/31...that's 13 days from now and Ant has proven to be a very resilient guy during his college and pro career, so having him back for the critical end of the season is not unlikely. And let's not forget that there have been no reports of any setbacks for KAT since he started playing 5 on 5 full court...that's big. My mood is much better now than it was last night!

Rose-colored glasses scenario? We learn in a couple days that Ant is only going to miss a week or so, and KAT returns before next weekend. Jaden, Conley and others take advantage of our two best scorers being out to step up offensively to make up for their absence (like they did last night), and that only builds up their confidence as supplemental scorers once KAT and Ant come back. My blatant homeristic take is there could actually be a silver lining to this Ant injury...IF he can return before 3/31. And I recognize that's a big IF right now.

[FNG]

My rose-colored glasses scenario above seems to be coming a reality...the news is that Ant's injury isn't nearly as bad as almost all of us feared. I think there is a chance both he and KAT play before the weekend, and that would be huge for this squad.

But the situation is far from rosy. I have four teams battling for the final 2 play in spots...Wolves (40 projected wins), Pels (40), OkC (39) and the Jazz (39). The Lakers sit just ahead of this group with 41 wins, and are still missing LeBron. We needed the Warriors to hold on against OkC yesterday, but they didn't, and the Thunder moved a game closer to us. They scare me more than any other team in the 4-team grouping, because they are hot (7-3 in their last 10) and are embarking on a 4-game West Coast stretch where I have them losing all 4 games...a win in any of those 4 games puts them in a tie with us in projected wins.

Silver lining? Several. The better health news for KAT and Ant, for starters. Next, similar to OkC, my schedule has the Wolves losing 4 of the next 5...just one more win in those games goes a long way to securing a post-season berth. And the best silver lining? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we hold the tiebreaker over all three of OkC, NO and the Jazz...assuming we beat the Pels in the final game of the season.

Hurry back, Ant and KAT, and stay healthy!

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Minnesota's 5-9 in their last 14 games, or since the deadline, and 1-5 in their last six. They're tied for the 9-11th seed and just 0.5 game away from being the 12th-seed as of right now. They play a red-hot Knicks team in New York tonight before playing Atlanta again on Wednesday, and then embarking on a West Coast road trip that involves Golden State, Sacramento, and Phoenix.

Anthony Edwards is out. Karl-Anthony Towns remains sidelined, though improving. Forgive me, but I'm not seeing any legitimate reasons for optimism. Minnesota could easily be 35-43 at the end of this month.

[Carlos Danger]

The last two losses hurt. Time is running out. Ten games left. But I'm still sticking by my play-in projection from like a month ago. Of the ten remaining games, only four teams having winning records. I don't see any reason why we can't go 6-4 to close out which would leave us right at 41-41 (.500). Especially if KAT/Edwards make it back sooner vs. later. I think .500 would be good enough for play in. But yeah...they can't lose anymore games they "should win". I'm counting teams .500 or worse as "should win", so crossing my fingers for a 6-4 end to this season. That includes a loss to the Knicks tonight.

[FNG]

The last two losses hurt. Time is running out. Ten games left. But I'm still sticking by my play-in projection from like a month ago. Of the ten remaining games, only four teams having winning records. I don't see any reason why we can't go 6-4 to close out which would leave us right at 41-41 (.500). Especially if KAT/Edwards make it back sooner vs. later. I think .500 would be good enough for play in. But yeah...they can't lose anymore games they "should win". I'm counting teams .500 or worse as "should win", so crossing my fingers for a 6-4 end to this season. That includes a loss to the Knicks tonight.

I actually have them 5-5, Carlos (I think Tim does too) but still making the playoffs with only 40 wins. I really think they will do better than that though if our two best scorers return healthy soon.

But regardless of what happens with KAT/Ant, I'm enjoying this race to the finish more than than any season I can remember for two reasons: 1) the tightness of the playoff race is unprecedented (still just 4 games separating 4th and 12th!) and 2) I think a healthy Wolves roster could really do some damage in the playoffs. I listened to a lot of NBA radio this morning as I was driving, and they are gushing about the excitement of the race in the West. They talked about there being three good teams that are going to miss the playoffs, and any one of them (with the possible exception of the Jazz) has one or more superstars on their roster...they specifically mentioned Ant when they talked about superstars who might miss the playoffs. They were much more pessimistic about the Wolves' chances of making the play in, but their opinion made sense because their information was dated...they said Ant was still in a boot (he's been out for a few days now) and KAT wasn't even scrimmaging yet (he is, albeit only in the Stay in Shape league to my knowledge).

One development they mentioned which does not help us is the possibility of Portland tanking and maybe even shutting down Lilliard. I have OkC losing to the Blazers next Sunday, but if Portland is done for the season, that would be a big win for OkC.

This is going to be fun...

[Carlos Danger]

It will be fun FNG. But also frustrating as hell too! Certainly we all expected better. 6-4 is best case scenario for me. 5-5 is more realistic. And Cam's low figure is certainly not out of the question either. It's a hard team to get a handle on. Every time I've started to leave them for dead, they grew a pulse. And every time I thought they were gaining some steam, they've pooped out. Ugh. Here's what I will put money on....they will finish worse than 10-0, but better than 0-10.