How Did Deadline Trades Impact Wolves?

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves are currently in 8th place in the West, nipping on the heels of the Pelicans, a game behind the Clippers, Suns and Mavs, and 3 games behind the Kings. Meanwhile, the Warriors are only a half-game behind the Wolves, the Blazers 1.5 games behind, the Jazz and Thunder 2 games behind and the Lakers 3.5 games behind. So the Wolves have five teams within striking distance ahead of them and five teams within striking distance behind them.

We already knew it would be tough for the Wolves to climb over some or all of the five slightly ahead of them given the Wolves remaining schedule, which will be challenging. The question for discussion in this thread is what impact the flurry of deadline trades over the past week is likely to have on the Wolves chances of moving up or moving down in the standings.

I'll start with my brief assessment of the Wolves trade. I just don't think it moves the needle significantly if at all in either direction. NAW looks like a throw-in for salary match purposes. Conley might be a slightly better fit than DLO, but his age and difficult staying healthy undermine any slightly better fit he brings. So I don't see this deal moving the Wolves up or down in the standings.

So what about moving up in the standings? We'll, I think the Mavs and Suns have put the Wolves in their respective rear view mirrors with their deadline deals for Durant and Kyrie Irving. I think the Clippers have slightly improved for this season with the addition of Eric Gordon while improving longer term with Bones. Assuming Kawhi and Paul George remain healthy, I don't see the Wolves passing the Clippers, although it's possible. The Kings look like a team the Wolves should be able to surpass in the standings, but it won't be easy to close the 3.5 game gap given how difficult the Wolves remaining schedule is. The Pelicans have withstood losing Ingram for more games than KAT and Zion for a ton of games. Ingram is back now and Zion will likely return at least as soon as KAT. The Wolves could pass the Pelicans, but that won't be easily. So bottom line is that the Wolves probably can't climb higher than 6th and to get that high they'd have to pass both the Pelicans and the Kings, making up 3.5 games on the Kings to get that result.

What about slipping down? I thought the Wolves were better than the Blazers, Jazz and Thunder before the trade deadline and the only thing that's changed in my view is that the Blazers and Jazz have slipped a bit. The Blazers trade of Hart for Cam Reddish and other assets hurts the Blazers. The Jazz have obviously moved into full tank mode by trading Conley, Vanderbilt and Beasley. The Warriors remain dangerous, although they didn't improve with their deadline deals in my view. Then we come to the Lakers. I think they probably helped themselves with their deadline deals more than any other team except Dallas and Phoenix. Adding Hachimura, DLO, Vanderbilt, Beasley and Bamba to a roster with LeBron, Davis and Lonnie Walker and Dennis Schroder gives the Lakers a roster than I believe will overtake the Wolves. Bottom line is that the Wolves will probably finish ahead of all the teams currently behind them except the Lakers.

In the end, that leaves the Wolves finishing anywhere from 6th to 9th in the West. I think the most likely scenario will be 9th behind the seven teams currently ahead of them plus the Lakers. To finish as high as 6th, KAT will need to come back relatively soon, stay healthy and gel with Gobert in a way we didn't see in the 20+ games they played together while also adjusting to a new PG he's never played with. At this point, finishing 6th would be disappointing in light of what the Wolves gave up for Gobert, but it would also be fairly impressive given where this team is at right now.

[Coolbreeze44]

It all depends on if we get KAT back, and how much better he can mesh with Rudy on the 2nd pass.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Less than 10-percent chance the Timberwolves finish in the top-six. Lots of change and adjustments that will be needed over the next couple of weeks, coaching included. Teams they were battling against for those spots got significantly better whereas they got a bit worse in my view. We also don't know where Karl-Anthony Towns is at in his recovery, which adds another wrinkle in how they finish the season.

God help us in the play-in tournament. There could be some nasty narratives that come out of that should Minnesota collapse.

[60WinTim]

Lip - my first pass at the Klunker-O-Meter has the Wolves finishing at #12 and the Lakers at #11. The Wolves are going to need a bunch of anti-klunkers!

[KG4Ever]

OK, Wolves are almost assuredly at least a play-in team as there are four tanking teams and I think Portland is weak. Only Suns and Denver seem uncatchable. I think the trade helps the Wolves as I expect better ball movement and better defense and more cohesiveness in the post-DLO era. I also think Conley will be able to get Gobert more easy looks and get him more engaged. Even without KAT, I see Wolves being at least the six seed and if KAT can come back soon after the break, I would say at least a five seed. This is now Ant's team and I think we see Ant improve his numbers going forward. I think McDaniels becomes more involved in the offense. Looking forward to watching how the season unfolds more than anytime in a long long while. Screw the klunkometer! This team will be humming despite the tough schedule going forward.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

OK, Wolves are almost assuredly at least a play-in team as there are four tanking teams and I think Portland is weak. Only Suns and Denver seem uncatchable. I think the trade helps the Wolves as I expect better ball movement and better defense and more cohesiveness in the post-DLO era. I also think Conley will be able to get Gobert more easy looks and get him more engaged. Even without KAT, I see Wolves being at least the six seed and if KAT can come back soon after the break, I would say at least a five seed. This is now Ant's team and I think we see Ant improve his numbers going forward. I think McDaniels becomes more involved in the offense. Looking forward to watching how the season unfolds more than anytime in a long long while. Screw the klunkometer! This team will be humming despite the tough schedule going forward.

Agreed

[Phenom]

Tankathon has the Clippers, Kings, and Suns with a tougher remaining schedule than the Wolves currently. The reality is with so much parity in the West the strength of schedule element is going to be less of a factor. Most teams in the West are playing teams within 2 games of one another.

[FNG]

Lip - my first pass at the Klunker-O-Meter has the Wolves finishing at #12 and the Lakers at #11. The Wolves are going to need a bunch of anti-klunkers!

First of all, Tim, how is the KOM pronounced? Is the emphasis on the O, as in barometer, or on the Klunk, as in TwinsOGram? I go back and forth.

Secondly, did the KOM change with the trade? Did you do a KOM pre-trade?

[Monster]

A few things come to mind.

1. I get why people keep talking about Conley as an injury risk because of his history of injuries and his age and he is a small PG but I don't see a vast difference between him and Russell in terms of injury risk at this point. Fortunately Russell has been pretty healthy this season but that's not typical for him. Last season Conley played more games than Russell at the age of 34. It may not happen but Russell is due to miss some games.

2. If you believe the west overall got stronger both this year and for the next couple years then trading Russell for any future assets makes even more sense. I get that most people aren't jumping for joy at three 2nd rounders but those can have real value and Connelly has a track record of finding guys.

3. I don't think NAW was a throw in on this deal. He might turn out to be nothing or leave in FA but I think the Wolves wanted him. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. If his defense is anywhere near what the numbers say he could help the team this season and he can playmake some and has shot the ball well this year. He could forget how to shoot again but there is a solid skill set there.

[60WinTim]

In my mind I put the emphasis on "Klunk". I don't think I say it out loud too often... :-)

Here is my first pass. I will revisit the tiers after the all-star break

Code: Select all

Top Tier Teams:  Celtics, Bucks, 76ers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Suns
Bottom Tier Teams:  Hornets, Pistons, Jazz, Spurs, Rockets

4.	Clips		31-27 + forecast 13-11 = 44-38
5.	Kings 		31-23 + forecast 12-16 = 43-39
6.	Blazers		27-28 + forecast 16-11 = 43-39
7.	Mavs		30-26 + forecast 12-14 = 42-40
8.	Pels		29-27 + forecast 13-13 = 42-40
9.	Warriors	28-27 + forecast 12-15 = 40-42
10.	Thunder		26-28 + forecast 14-14 = 40-42
11.	Lakers		25-30 + forecast 14-13 = 39-43
12.	Wolves		30-28 + forecast 8-16 = 38-44

As Q pointed out awhile back, the Wolves have a really tough schedule with lots of games on the road against teams fighting for playoff position. At some point, they will have to play like a Top Tier Team just to make the playoffs!