The return of Patrick Beverley

[Carlos Danger]

I didn't see anyone post this yet. Thoughts?

https://www.canishoopus.com/2023/2/9/23593108/2023-nba-trade-deadline-minnesota-timberwolves-rumors-patrick-beverley-anthony-edwards

I'd actually like this. I know the question will be "who does he replace?". It would probably come down to Nathan Knight or Austin Rivers.

My vote would be to cut Rivers. I know he's gotten a lot of love on here, but I'm a VORP guy, so I'm not seeing anything special there. I know Beverley hasn't been anything special this year either, but he certainly has a long enough track record to make me feel ok about grabbing him. I feel Nathan Knight might have some value down the stretch if we need an extra big due to foul troubles.

[Monster]

FWIW on Dan B Jon K said that the Wolves don't have a ton of interest in brining Beverly back. He said the buyout market if the Wolves wanted to add a player they would likely go a different direction. He didn't say it wouldn't happen but he didn't think it was likely.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Chris Finch and Tim Connelly love Austin Rivers. He's not getting waived.

[Carlos Danger]

Chris Finch and Tim Connelly love Austin Rivers. He's not getting waived.

Fair enough. I like/trust VORP, but certainly realize it's not the end all (although Forbes was team worst VORP and so I was happy to see him cut).

Do you know or have an opinion why Rivers (and Prince) show up so poorly in VORP? They seem to be exceptions as people here seem to really like their game. Granted, we are literally talking about fractions of VORP in both their cases i.e. (.01) - so pretty much neutral vs. terrible is how I read that.

[kekgeek]

In Jon K article today it says the wolves have no interest in bringing Pat Bev back

[AbeVigodaLive]

Chris Finch and Tim Connelly love Austin Rivers. He's not getting waived.

Fair enough. I like/trust VORP, but certainly realize it's not the end all (although Forbes was team worst VORP and so I was happy to see him cut).

Do you know or have an opinion why Rivers (and Prince) show up so poorly in VORP? They seem to be exceptions as people here seem to really like their game. Granted, we are literally talking about fractions of VORP in both their cases i.e. (.01) - so pretty much neutral vs. terrible is how I read that.

What they lack in traditional stats... they make up in smaller details that can help teams win?

Austin Rivers (verbally) seems to relish in his role. There must be some intrinsic value for coaches for what he brings on the court...

He's gotten at least 20+ mpg for 7 different teams now... whether he's started off the season as a starter, 6th man or deep reserve. He's even made the playoffs 7 times for 3 different teams.

Yet, he has a negative VORP every single year.




[Note: Traditionally, I think VORP is a pretty revealing stat, too.]

[rapsuperstar31]

Unless they are willing to buyout Knight, it's probably not going to happen. I suppose if Ant got vocal about bringing in Bev, you would have to do it.

[Tactical unit]

Rivers is the veteran leader and what he brings to the table is about as equal to or more than what Bev brings to the table. There isn't much of a difference and I don't see them both struggling over who is the voice of the wolves so doubt Bev coming back is a real thing.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Chris Finch and Tim Connelly love Austin Rivers. He's not getting waived.

Fair enough. I like/trust VORP, but certainly realize it's not the end all (although Forbes was team worst VORP and so I was happy to see him cut).

Do you know or have an opinion why Rivers (and Prince) show up so poorly in VORP? They seem to be exceptions as people here seem to really like their game. Granted, we are literally talking about fractions of VORP in both their cases i.e. (.01) - so pretty much neutral vs. terrible is how I read that.

Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) converts the value of the Box Plus-Minus (BPM) into an estimate of the player's contribution, which is parameterized with respect to the Replacement Player.

If a player doesn't perform well in BPM, it's likely he won't show well in VORP either. Of course, availability/playing time is accounted for so sometimes they don't match up. For instance, a high usage player might have a high BPM but replacement level VORP if they've missed a number of games. Similarly, an end of the bench player that doesn't play very much typically won't be represented well in VORP no matter their BPM.

BPM is a consolidation of all the advanced metrics Basketball Reference keeps track of (USG%, TS%, AST%, TRB%, STL%, BLK%, TOV%, 3PAr, etc.), Offensive Rating of the Player and Team, and Net Rating. Minutes, Team Minutes, and Games Played are incorporated as well.

BPM is a very solid catch-all metric, as is VORP, in my opinion. There's always going to be some noise in plus-minus or net rating derived statistics, though. You just have to find the ones that have lower error rates than others -- EPM/eW is very good. RPM is good as well, but has the occasional misrepresented player. It's usually a good idea to reference multiple catch-all's and see if they're pointing the same way. That's usually a solid indication that a player is positive, negative, or neutral, in my opinion.

Specifically as it pertains to Taurean Prince and Austin Rivers, I don't think they grade well because they only impact a few areas of the game well. Rather, they don't produce much in box score categories given their roles -- floor spacers, perimeter defenders. Their scores are also highly-affected by what the team's output is when they're on the floor since they aren't consistently involved.

This is also why players like Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, for example, grade out better than they probably should. He spends most of his minutes next to Nikola Jokic who is a dominant, dominant player, and the Net Rating then gets baked into KCP's values. Call it the Jokic multiplier, if you will.

I hope that helped in some way.

[Q-is-here]

Cam lays out VORP pretty well above. What folks that love VORP need to understand - and Basketball Reference literally states this in their glossary section on BPM/VORP - is that it undervalues individual defense. So if you have a wing defender that doesn't fill up the box score with points, rebounds, assists, etc. but is very good at defense, this simply won't show up in BPM or VORP or PER for that matter.

This is why BPM and VORP over-values players like Bones Hyland (seemingly a board darling) and under-values players like Jaden McDaniels. According to BPM and VORP, these guys are valued similarly. Now what GM in his or her right mind would value Bones and Jaden at the same level??? The answer is none would.

Austin Rivers is somewhat of a curious case though. Theoretically he's a 3&D guard and is similarly not valued by BPM and VORP. However, the more advanced defensive metrics also don't think that highly of him. So although he is certainly a better defender than Nowell, Bones, or DLO, he probably doesn't give us as much on that end as we ideally need for someone who otherwise is fairly limited offensively. This is why I think NAW could be an upgrade in that perimeter defender off the bench slot.