Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

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Lipoli390
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Lipoli390 »

monsterpile wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm a VORP guy. With only about 10 games to go:
Gobert 1.3 VORP
Kessler 1.7 VORP

Kessler will most likely beat Gobert by himself in year one.
They spun off Beasley and Vanderbilt for another 1st round pick
They have four more coming from us.
So...(if I've got it all right), that's five 1st round picks plus Kessler for Rudy Gobert.

I want to hire Danny Ainge to help me when I buy my next car.


Utah traded Beasley and Vanderbilt and 2-3 second round picks for a 2027 1st from the Lakers that may turn into a high 2nd.

If you want to praise Ainge using VORP this season go ahead and look at his other big trade. Mitchell is at 4.4 but Markannen is at 3.2.


I believe Ainge got 3 unprotected first round picks and a talented young player, Collin Sexton, in addition to Markkanen. So yes, I'd hire Ainge to do my negotiating. To be fair, Mitchell is obviously doing really well and so is his new team. He was a perfect fit for a team in win-now mode but at age 26 he aligns well with the core top talent on the team of Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. As a result, it was also a longer-term move for the Cavs for a sustainable winner over time. I'd call that deal a win-win. So I'd also hire Koby Altman to negotiate on my behalf. The guy I wouldn't hire is Tim Connelly. :). I'd still hire TC to handle my team's draft - assuming Zach Kleiman of the Grizzlies isn't available. :)
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Monster
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Monster »

lipoli390 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm a VORP guy. With only about 10 games to go:
Gobert 1.3 VORP
Kessler 1.7 VORP

Kessler will most likely beat Gobert by himself in year one.
They spun off Beasley and Vanderbilt for another 1st round pick
They have four more coming from us.
So...(if I've got it all right), that's five 1st round picks plus Kessler for Rudy Gobert.

I want to hire Danny Ainge to help me when I buy my next car.


Utah traded Beasley and Vanderbilt and 2-3 second round picks for a 2027 1st from the Lakers that may turn into a high 2nd.

If you want to praise Ainge using VORP this season go ahead and look at his other big trade. Mitchell is at 4.4 but Markannen is at 3.2.


I believe Ainge got 3 unprotected first round picks and a talented young player, Collin Sexton, in addition to Markkanen. So yes, I'd hire Ainge to do my negotiating. To be fair, Mitchell is obviously doing really well and so is his new team. He was a perfect fit for a team in win-now mode but at age 26 he aligns well with the core top talent on the team of Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. As a result, it was also a longer-term move for the Cavs for a sustainable winner over time. I'd call that deal a win-win. So I'd also hire Koby Altman to negotiate on my behalf. The guy I wouldn't hire is Tim Connelly. :). I'd still hire TC to handle my team's draft - assuming Zach Kleiman of the Grizzlies isn't available. :)


The Cavs had a surprising year last year despite having quite a few missed games due to injury including Sexton only playing 11 games. Are we sure they wouldn't have made a progression/jump with Markkenen still there, Sexton healthy and a complimentary rookie Ochai Agbaji being added to the team and that awesome continuity factor?
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Lipoli390
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Lipoli390 »

monsterpile wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm a VORP guy. With only about 10 games to go:
Gobert 1.3 VORP
Kessler 1.7 VORP

Kessler will most likely beat Gobert by himself in year one.
They spun off Beasley and Vanderbilt for another 1st round pick
They have four more coming from us.
So...(if I've got it all right), that's five 1st round picks plus Kessler for Rudy Gobert.

I want to hire Danny Ainge to help me when I buy my next car.


Utah traded Beasley and Vanderbilt and 2-3 second round picks for a 2027 1st from the Lakers that may turn into a high 2nd.

If you want to praise Ainge using VORP this season go ahead and look at his other big trade. Mitchell is at 4.4 but Markannen is at 3.2.


I believe Ainge got 3 unprotected first round picks and a talented young player, Collin Sexton, in addition to Markkanen. So yes, I'd hire Ainge to do my negotiating. To be fair, Mitchell is obviously doing really well and so is his new team. He was a perfect fit for a team in win-now mode but at age 26 he aligns well with the core top talent on the team of Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. As a result, it was also a longer-term move for the Cavs for a sustainable winner over time. I'd call that deal a win-win. So I'd also hire Koby Altman to negotiate on my behalf. The guy I wouldn't hire is Tim Connelly. :). I'd still hire TC to handle my team's draft - assuming Zach Kleiman of the Grizzlies isn't available. :)


The Cavs had a surprising year last year despite having quite a few missed games due to injury including Sexton only playing 11 games. Are we sure they wouldn't have made a progression/jump with Markkenen still there, Sexton healthy and a complimentary rookie Ochai Agbaji being added to the team and that awesome continuity factor?


I definitely think the Cavs would have made a jump with Markkanen and Sexton still there. While I still think the Cavs did fine in that deal, it's not a deal I would have made if I headed up the Cavs' front office. That's why Danny Ainge would be my first choice as my personal negotiator.
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Carlos Danger
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Carlos Danger »

monsterpile wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm a VORP guy. With only about 10 games to go:
Gobert 1.3 VORP
Kessler 1.7 VORP

Kessler will most likely beat Gobert by himself in year one.
They spun off Beasley and Vanderbilt for another 1st round pick
They have four more coming from us.
So...(if I've got it all right), that's five 1st round picks plus Kessler for Rudy Gobert.

I want to hire Danny Ainge to help me when I buy my next car.


Utah traded Beasley and Vanderbilt and 2-3 second round picks for a 2027 1st from the Lakers that may turn into a high 2nd.

If you want to praise Ainge using VORP this season go ahead and look at his other big trade. Mitchell is at 4.4 but Markannen is at 3.2.


Yes, I didn't outline the entire deal. But they also used Beasley/Vanderbilt for most of this season before moving them out. Vanderbilt has 1.1 VORP with Utah and Beasely 0.2 - so total of 1.3. To spin off a few months remaining of those guys and bring back a 1st round pick was good dealing IMO.

Regarding the Mitchell/Markannen trade, I think that's another "win" for Ainge in my book. It wasn't a Markannen/Mitchell swap. Utah also received three unprotected 1st round picks and two young players. Also Markannen was an All Star his first season with Utah, so...not much to complain about IMO.
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Carlos Danger wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm a VORP guy. With only about 10 games to go:
Gobert 1.3 VORP
Kessler 1.7 VORP

Kessler will most likely beat Gobert by himself in year one.
They spun off Beasley and Vanderbilt for another 1st round pick
They have four more coming from us.
So...(if I've got it all right), that's five 1st round picks plus Kessler for Rudy Gobert.

I want to hire Danny Ainge to help me when I buy my next car.


Utah traded Beasley and Vanderbilt and 2-3 second round picks for a 2027 1st from the Lakers that may turn into a high 2nd.

If you want to praise Ainge using VORP this season go ahead and look at his other big trade. Mitchell is at 4.4 but Markannen is at 3.2.


Yes, I didn't outline the entire deal. But they also used Beasley/Vanderbilt for most of this season before moving them out. Vanderbilt has 1.1 VORP with Utah and Beasely 0.2 - so total of 1.3. To spin off a few months remaining of those guys and bring back a 1st round pick was good dealing IMO.

Regarding the Mitchell/Markannen trade, I think that's another "win" for Ainge in my book. It wasn't a Markannen/Mitchell swap. Utah also received three unprotected 1st round picks and two young players. Also Markannen was an All Star his first season with Utah, so...not much to complain about IMO.



The Markannen/Mitchell trade seems to be a good one for both teams... at least after the first season.

The same can't be said for other Utah trades from last summer.
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Carlos Danger
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Carlos Danger »

kekgeek1 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm a VORP guy. With only about 10 games to go:
Gobert 1.3 VORP
Kessler 1.7 VORP

Kessler will most likely beat Gobert by himself in year one.
They spun off Beasley and Vanderbilt for another 1st round pick
They have four more coming from us.
So...(if I've got it all right), that's five 1st round picks plus Kessler for Rudy Gobert.

I want to hire Danny Ainge to help me when I buy my next car.


Utah traded Beasley and Vanderbilt and 2-3 second round picks for a 2027 1st from the Lakers that may turn into a high 2nd.

If you want to praise Ainge using VORP this season go ahead and look at his other big trade. Mitchell is at 4.4 but Markannen is at 3.2.


Mason Plumlee has a higher VORP than Ant. Does not mean that wolves didn't overpay but there are big issues with VORP


We will have to agree to disagree on VORP. I'm not saying you can't find exceptions. But... I've found far fewer exceptions in VORP than other stats.

Yes, Plumlee has accumulated slightly more VORP so far this season than Edwards (2.1 to 1.9). That could be because of Edwards slow start - IDK. I don't follow Plumlee at all, but it looks like he's having a solid season. But yeah, I'd expect Edward to be higher than him. I cannot explain why he's not other than possibly due to Edwards slow start since it's a cumulative stat. Certainly we all expect Edwards to be the better player going forward and I would assume VORP will reflect that eventually.
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Wolvesfan21
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Wolvesfan21 »

Lipoli390 wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:19 pm I've been in treatment for shock since the news hit until now. One of the other patients down the hall created a disturbance and I used that opportunity to escape. So here I am, back home and trying to accept what just happened. I still have this sliver of hope that Rudy won't pass his physical and the deal will fall through. But I'm ready to admit that is simply self-delusion.

So what do I think of the deal? I want to restrain myself because what I think of the deal can't be fully expressed in words. Apparently, I was screaming the name Herschel Walker in the middle of First Avenue in front of Target Center when the authorities whisked me away to a treatment facility. I think I'm better now -- really I am! Well, now it's on to discussing the deal.

My first thought, other than WTF, is that this is the sort of deal you do if your team is mired in mediocrity with no sign of progress towards success. Even then, you CONSIDER doing this deal only if you are getting a LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Shaq, Kobe or Dwayne Wade IN THEIR PRIME. And even then, you probably don't do the deal unless you're in an attractive destination market that gives you an edge in attracting supporting talent and recovering if it all goes bad.

The Wolves were not mired in mediocrity with no sign of progress towards success when Connelly came here. We were a 46-win team that was bound to get better through the improvement of key young players and likely getting better through strategic draft picks and other acquisitions, including Kyle Anderson. And while Gobert is a great defensive player who sets terrific picks, he's simply not in the same category as any of the hall-of-fame players I mentioned. If he's still in his prime, it's the tail end. Finally, we're obviously not a destination market and when it goes bad and you've depleted your draft stock already, you're screwed if your a mid-market, cold weather team like the Wolves.

My second thought is that Connelly's line that there no short cuts to success was just a line. This is the ultimate short cut. Put another way, this was a hale Mary that wasn't necessary. And it was a hale Mary to the 30 yard line, not the goal line. The goal line is a Kevin Durant or Kobe in his prime. That's not Gobert, no matter how much you like his game. This is not the way the most successful mid-market teams achieve success. They don't offload all these players and future picks to get the final piece. The Spurs never made a move like this. Nor did the Warriors or the Bucks. The Bucks went all in to get Jrue Holiday, but they gave up nothing close to what the Wolves just gave up. Golden State had some success with their home grown threesome and then added Iggy, which was key to them winning their first championship. But they didn't trade away half their picks over the next decade to get him. They didn't even give away what the Wolves just gave away to get Durant in his prime.

Imagine how you'll feel if Gobert or KAT does down with a season-ending injury. Then we're in the lottery and that pick goes to a conference rival, this Jazz, in what's expected to be one of the most talent-rich drafts in memory. You might remember when David Robinson was lost to a season-ending injury. Well, he was part of a smart organization that had their first-round draft pick that year, which they used to select Tim Duncan.

Just when I thought we had a front office that had the good sense to keep building on the prior regimes record of success with a prudent, rational plan to build a sustainable winner without taking short cuts, we get this. It's just the fate of being a Wolves fan I guess.

Yes, the Wolves might make the NBA finals in one of the next four years as a result of this deal. But I don't think they will. I have my doubts about whether they'll make the Conference finals because I don't think the addition of Gobert will have the synergistic impact that our front office appears to believe it will have. If the Wolves do make the NBA or Conference Finals I suspect the success will be short-lived.

Ultimately, this deal suggests to me a front office that is tone deaf. There was a strong positive vibe developing around this team as they were building around a young, impressive core that had a surprisingly successful run last season with all the key players coming back, some high-floor draft picks added and the acquisition of Kyle Anderson. And there were undoubtedly more opportunities to further improve the team through far more measured, but effective, deals to acquire a Myles Turner, Clint Capela, Richaun Holmes or perhaps another needle-moving big. A huge part of attracting, energizing and keeping a fan base is the journey -- the upward incremental climb to success. I experienced that growing up in Chicago as MJ, Scottie and Horace Grant developed together and became champions. Warriors fans experienced it with Curry, Green, and Thompson. Spurs fans experienced it with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The list goes on along a similar path unless you live in LA, Miami or New York.

I know there are some, perhaps most, on this board who like the deal. And there are also those who will reconcile themselves to the deal and rationalize because there's really no other choice if you're committed to remaining a Wolves fan. At some point, I'll have to reconcile myself to this deal, but I won't rationalize to the point of believing it was the right move to make. It was a terrible deal to make and I'll never change my view on that. Meanwhile, I'll continue to follow the team and I'll go to games because I've already renewed my season tickets. And this team might, in fact should, make the playoffs and advance at least one round if not two. That will be great. But I'm not going to enjoy this season or the lead up to it nearly as much as I would have if Connelly had stayed true to his word about not taking short cuts. He's just taken the ultimate short cut at an unprecedented scale in the NBA. It was both unnecessary and reckless in my view. It's only corollary is the Herschel Walker trade. That's the memory that got me temporary committed to a facility earlier today. :). I just hope we don't see a similar result in this instance.
Rudy is fully healthy now (knock on wood) and what we were (I was at least) expecting last year. He never looked right with his bad back. He just couldn't move. Maybe you'll come around on this trade. The best trade in MN sports history.
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by FNG »

Wolvesfan21 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 5:03 pm
Lipoli390 wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:19 pm I've been in treatment for shock since the news hit until now. One of the other patients down the hall created a disturbance and I used that opportunity to escape. So here I am, back home and trying to accept what just happened. I still have this sliver of hope that Rudy won't pass his physical and the deal will fall through. But I'm ready to admit that is simply self-delusion.

So what do I think of the deal? I want to restrain myself because what I think of the deal can't be fully expressed in words. Apparently, I was screaming the name Herschel Walker in the middle of First Avenue in front of Target Center when the authorities whisked me away to a treatment facility. I think I'm better now -- really I am! Well, now it's on to discussing the deal.

My first thought, other than WTF, is that this is the sort of deal you do if your team is mired in mediocrity with no sign of progress towards success. Even then, you CONSIDER doing this deal only if you are getting a LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Shaq, Kobe or Dwayne Wade IN THEIR PRIME. And even then, you probably don't do the deal unless you're in an attractive destination market that gives you an edge in attracting supporting talent and recovering if it all goes bad.

The Wolves were not mired in mediocrity with no sign of progress towards success when Connelly came here. We were a 46-win team that was bound to get better through the improvement of key young players and likely getting better through strategic draft picks and other acquisitions, including Kyle Anderson. And while Gobert is a great defensive player who sets terrific picks, he's simply not in the same category as any of the hall-of-fame players I mentioned. If he's still in his prime, it's the tail end. Finally, we're obviously not a destination market and when it goes bad and you've depleted your draft stock already, you're screwed if your a mid-market, cold weather team like the Wolves.

My second thought is that Connelly's line that there no short cuts to success was just a line. This is the ultimate short cut. Put another way, this was a hale Mary that wasn't necessary. And it was a hale Mary to the 30 yard line, not the goal line. The goal line is a Kevin Durant or Kobe in his prime. That's not Gobert, no matter how much you like his game. This is not the way the most successful mid-market teams achieve success. They don't offload all these players and future picks to get the final piece. The Spurs never made a move like this. Nor did the Warriors or the Bucks. The Bucks went all in to get Jrue Holiday, but they gave up nothing close to what the Wolves just gave up. Golden State had some success with their home grown threesome and then added Iggy, which was key to them winning their first championship. But they didn't trade away half their picks over the next decade to get him. They didn't even give away what the Wolves just gave away to get Durant in his prime.

Imagine how you'll feel if Gobert or KAT does down with a season-ending injury. Then we're in the lottery and that pick goes to a conference rival, this Jazz, in what's expected to be one of the most talent-rich drafts in memory. You might remember when David Robinson was lost to a season-ending injury. Well, he was part of a smart organization that had their first-round draft pick that year, which they used to select Tim Duncan.

Just when I thought we had a front office that had the good sense to keep building on the prior regimes record of success with a prudent, rational plan to build a sustainable winner without taking short cuts, we get this. It's just the fate of being a Wolves fan I guess.

Yes, the Wolves might make the NBA finals in one of the next four years as a result of this deal. But I don't think they will. I have my doubts about whether they'll make the Conference finals because I don't think the addition of Gobert will have the synergistic impact that our front office appears to believe it will have. If the Wolves do make the NBA or Conference Finals I suspect the success will be short-lived.

Ultimately, this deal suggests to me a front office that is tone deaf. There was a strong positive vibe developing around this team as they were building around a young, impressive core that had a surprisingly successful run last season with all the key players coming back, some high-floor draft picks added and the acquisition of Kyle Anderson. And there were undoubtedly more opportunities to further improve the team through far more measured, but effective, deals to acquire a Myles Turner, Clint Capela, Richaun Holmes or perhaps another needle-moving big. A huge part of attracting, energizing and keeping a fan base is the journey -- the upward incremental climb to success. I experienced that growing up in Chicago as MJ, Scottie and Horace Grant developed together and became champions. Warriors fans experienced it with Curry, Green, and Thompson. Spurs fans experienced it with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The list goes on along a similar path unless you live in LA, Miami or New York.

I know there are some, perhaps most, on this board who like the deal. And there are also those who will reconcile themselves to the deal and rationalize because there's really no other choice if you're committed to remaining a Wolves fan. At some point, I'll have to reconcile myself to this deal, but I won't rationalize to the point of believing it was the right move to make. It was a terrible deal to make and I'll never change my view on that. Meanwhile, I'll continue to follow the team and I'll go to games because I've already renewed my season tickets. And this team might, in fact should, make the playoffs and advance at least one round if not two. That will be great. But I'm not going to enjoy this season or the lead up to it nearly as much as I would have if Connelly had stayed true to his word about not taking short cuts. He's just taken the ultimate short cut at an unprecedented scale in the NBA. It was both unnecessary and reckless in my view. It's only corollary is the Herschel Walker trade. That's the memory that got me temporary committed to a facility earlier today. :). I just hope we don't see a similar result in this instance.
Rudy is fully healthy now (knock on wood) and what we were (I was at least) expecting last year. He never looked right with his bad back. He just couldn't move. Maybe you'll come around on this trade. The best trade in MN sports history.
It's difficult to make final conclusions about a trade in the first year...not impossible, but difficult. I don't think anyone here could rationally conclude that this was a good deal for the Wolves after the first season. But how do we view it now, with Gobert anchoring the best defense in the NBA and already in the conversation for DPOY (yes, I know it's early)? So what did we give up to get a player who could potentially be DPOY this year?

Kessler, Beverley, Beasley and Vanderbilt have a combined VORP of ZERO this year. And then there are the four picks, the next three of which are quite likely to be very late first rounders. Take a look at the players drafted in the 20s this year, and prepare to be underwhelmed. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule, but late 20s draft picks generally don't pan out.

Conventional wisdom says the team that ends up with the best player generally wins the trade. Not always true, but I would say it's true more often than not. I don't think there is any doubt who the most impactful player is in this trade.

Put a different way: how would we feel if the Wolves had traded the same package for a player who had been an offensive POY of the year three separate times and was again in the conversation for OPOY. Think about some names that fit in that category, and I think we would have been ecstatic about that deal. I'm not arguing that Utah didn't end up with a lot of assets...they did. And also many will make the argument that an offensive star is more important than a defensive star. I value defense, so I would not make that argument. And the Wolves early 7-2 record demonstrates the importance of defense.

So the deal looked bad last year, and looks a lot better this year. Still too early to conclude though, I think. And if the Wolves don't continue playing at the level they are playing at now and don't at least challenge for a championship in the next three years, or if Utah grabs a Jokic-level player with one of our picks, that will swing the trade way back in Utah's favor. So far, the have only drafted Keyonte George, and his ORtg of 108 against a horrid DRtg of 125 tells me he's probably not going to be Jokic.

So, if nothing else, I say Rudy's resurgence this year at least makes this a talker again.
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Sundog »

It was wayyyy too early last season to say the Wolves lost the trade, just as it’s wayyyy too early to say this season the Wolves won it. But as FGN said, it’s at least a talker now
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Re: Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

Post by Wolvesfan21 »

Sundog wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 6:05 pm It was wayyyy too early last season to say the Wolves lost the trade, just as it’s wayyyy too early to say this season the Wolves won it. But as FGN said, it’s at least a talker now
I see a lot of talking heads eating or getting ready to eat crow. Sure things can change, but I still think at least giving yourself a chance to win it all makes it worth it. Rudy made/is helping make this team that much better, we were very good but I still think we lacked the overall talent to win it all. We have a chance now.

I'm claiming victory either way. :lol:
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