Hornets vs Pups GDT

[Monster]

A couple things:

This Hornets team was mostly healthy. I'm not sure how bad they are. Still a disappointing loss.

As a guy that's said lots of good stuff about Rivers this year this was the worst all-around game I've seen him play this season.

NAW wasn't perfect but without his contributions, this game may not have even been close. I liked what I saw out there and it was interesting he was the guy that came in first and he also got run because he was playing well. McDaniels NAW and Edwaards on the perimeter would be fun to see. Also shout out to McDaniels on offense the first quarter.

It was interesting how many times Conley ended up on Gordon Hayward in the 2nd half. It felt like the only time Hayward won that matchup was on an putback. Conley played fine overall.

[FNG]

Some good comments from Carlos and monster here. Carlos mentions prince, and we should address his mysterious absence. They say personal reasons, and Ant hinted it may be several games. Not good, because prince has been very good this season.

I said earlier we lost because of poor play by our veterans, but the real reason is something else. Last night was a mirror image of last year. Last season we won perhaps 15-20 games against teams better than us because we were healthy and they were not. Last night we lost to a team not as good as us because we were missing a perennial all star and an important veteran reserve, and they had all their key players. Ah, how Lady Luck can turn sometimes!

Monster mentions NAW, and he's correct that he kept us in the game. But while I loved his 3 point success, I don't like his form...I'm concerned it's not repeatable. And while I love his energy, he looks undisciplined to me. He reminds me a lot of Bones Hyman on defense and that's a little scary. He likely doesn't see the court if prince is available, but we'll probably see him a lot if ant is correct about taureans absence. Let's hope I'm wrong about his shot, and he actually is a good 3 point shooter. I'm skeptical though...hurry back Taurean.

[Lipoli390]

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Towns-Gobert:
108.2 ORtg, 104.2 DRtg, +4.0 NetRtg in 260 minutes. Unit TS% of 58.4.

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
114.6 ORtg, 101.7 DRtg, +12.9 NetRtg in 253 minutes. Unit TS% of 62.6.

o Conley-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
104.3 ORtg, 117.9 DRtg, -13.6 NetRtg in 54 minutes. Unit TS% of 50.6.


I'll preface that it's still very early for this new group, but that supposed "better fit" and "chemistry" hasn't materialized in a positive way (yet?).

Minnesota's best lineup, and one that was among the most effective in the league with a significant sample size (253 minutes), and without Karl-Anthony Towns, is now much worse defensively while absolutely struggling on the offensive end since acquiring Mike Conley Jr.

There's an appropriate amount of time the Timberwolves will need to mesh, admittedly, but we're in the final stretch of the schedule here. There isn't a lot of time to gel and we're 1-3 since shuffling the deck while playing mostly bad basketball. It's difficult to watch. But hey, how about those lobs...

You (correctly) acknowledge it's not much of a sample size. Example, if you sub out Prince for Anderson, suddenly that five man line up (with Conley) is plus 16. I don't make much of it - we have to let this play out more.

The decision makers had plenty of minutes to evaluate DLO including practices. They didn't want to commit to him - end of story. Monster laid it out in another post. Once they knew they were not going to resign him - it made sense to trade him for some value back. Is Conley going to be an upgrade? Depends on who you ask. Rudy/Conley is +9 in only 71 minutes. Russell/Rudy were only +1 in 1100 minutes. And Russell/Towns were -52 in 529 minutes.

NAW certainly is an upgrade to Forbes (who he replaced). And the three 2nd round picks give us something of value for future trade or prospects.

At the end of the day, this team didn't look like it was going anywhere with DLO. They were one game over .500 when they traded him and they are .500 now. Not a big difference. They were destined to cross their fingers for a play in either way IMO.

Carlos - I think you're right that the decision to trade DLO was premised in part of a front office decision that they weren't going to re-sign him behind this season. That's why was OK trading DLO at the deadline. But I view trading DLO as an acknowledgement that this season is a lost one. In contrast, I think Conley thought that trading for Conley would be a positive for the remainder of this season. I don't know how you could view the 35 year old, often injuries Conley as having longer term value beyond this season. To me, that was a mistake. Starting next season with Rudy still here and Conley as our starting PG with no up-and-coming young PG on the roster doesn't excite me to say the least. The situation with the Wolves is a mess.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Towns-Gobert:
108.2 ORtg, 104.2 DRtg, +4.0 NetRtg in 260 minutes. Unit TS% of 58.4.

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
114.6 ORtg, 101.7 DRtg, +12.9 NetRtg in 253 minutes. Unit TS% of 62.6.

o Conley-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
104.3 ORtg, 117.9 DRtg, -13.6 NetRtg in 54 minutes. Unit TS% of 50.6.


I'll preface that it's still very early for this new group, but that supposed "better fit" and "chemistry" hasn't materialized in a positive way (yet?).

Minnesota's best lineup, and one that was among the most effective in the league with a significant sample size (253 minutes), and without Karl-Anthony Towns, is now much worse defensively while absolutely struggling on the offensive end since acquiring Mike Conley Jr.

There's an appropriate amount of time the Timberwolves will need to mesh, admittedly, but we're in the final stretch of the schedule here. There isn't a lot of time to gel and we're 1-3 since shuffling the deck while playing mostly bad basketball. It's difficult to watch. But hey, how about those lobs...

You (correctly) acknowledge it's not much of a sample size. Example, if you sub out Prince for Anderson, suddenly that five man line up (with Conley) is plus 16. I don't make much of it - we have to let this play out more.

The decision makers had plenty of minutes to evaluate DLO including practices. They didn't want to commit to him - end of story. Monster laid it out in another post. Once they knew they were not going to resign him - it made sense to trade him for some value back. Is Conley going to be an upgrade? Depends on who you ask. Rudy/Conley is +9 in only 71 minutes. Russell/Rudy were only +1 in 1100 minutes. And Russell/Towns were -52 in 529 minutes.

NAW certainly is an upgrade to Forbes (who he replaced). And the three 2nd round picks give us something of value for future trade or prospects.

At the end of the day, this team didn't look like it was going anywhere with DLO. They were one game over .500 when they traded him and they are .500 now. Not a big difference. They were destined to cross their fingers for a play in either way IMO.

Well, that's not exactly apples to apples either. That lineup with Taurean Prince has only played 17 minutes over three games -- which is a little bit different than 54 minutes over four games. Still a limited sample size, agreed. And yes, Minnesota has no choice but to let it play out more. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean they'll be any good with more minutes.

The decision-makers get it wrong occasionally. Fans like us get it wrong occasionally. It's too early to say anything definitively, but the fact of the matter is that this team was 13-7 over their last 20 games (fifth-best in the NBA in that span) prior to the trade news with the 10th-best net rating in the NBA over that time. Their starting lineup (sans Karl-Anthony Towns) was among the most-effective units in the league -- fourth-best net rating out of 27 that have played 200 or more minutes together. We can literally see that the team isn't playing any better than they were previously, and they've actually been much worse on both ends of the court.

Once again, I truly understand the financial aspect of the situation so further explanation there isn't necessary, however, this team is in win-now mode. I didn't put that on them. You didn't put that on them. New management with new ownership's support put that on them. Their decisions over the summer made winning the top priority immediately. And if winning is indeed the main goal then they should have either retained D'Angelo Russell or moved him for players closer their primes with skill sets that might help this team create an identity, that might produce in areas they're actually weak in. Mike Conley Jr. never fit the bill. He's arguably worse defensively in the same role and a much lesser threat offensively, especially in late game situations, at this stage of his career. What area of weakness does his presence actually solve? Is he going to be an upgrade? I wouldn't hold my breath and the very early returns say no.

[Lipoli390]

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Towns-Gobert:
108.2 ORtg, 104.2 DRtg, +4.0 NetRtg in 260 minutes. Unit TS% of 58.4.

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
114.6 ORtg, 101.7 DRtg, +12.9 NetRtg in 253 minutes. Unit TS% of 62.6.

o Conley-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
104.3 ORtg, 117.9 DRtg, -13.6 NetRtg in 54 minutes. Unit TS% of 50.6.


I'll preface that it's still very early for this new group, but that supposed "better fit" and "chemistry" hasn't materialized in a positive way (yet?).

Minnesota's best lineup, and one that was among the most effective in the league with a significant sample size (253 minutes), and without Karl-Anthony Towns, is now much worse defensively while absolutely struggling on the offensive end since acquiring Mike Conley Jr.

There's an appropriate amount of time the Timberwolves will need to mesh, admittedly, but we're in the final stretch of the schedule here. There isn't a lot of time to gel and we're 1-3 since shuffling the deck while playing mostly bad basketball. It's difficult to watch. But hey, how about those lobs...

You (correctly) acknowledge it's not much of a sample size. Example, if you sub out Prince for Anderson, suddenly that five man line up (with Conley) is plus 16. I don't make much of it - we have to let this play out more.

The decision makers had plenty of minutes to evaluate DLO including practices. They didn't want to commit to him - end of story. Monster laid it out in another post. Once they knew they were not going to resign him - it made sense to trade him for some value back. Is Conley going to be an upgrade? Depends on who you ask. Rudy/Conley is +9 in only 71 minutes. Russell/Rudy were only +1 in 1100 minutes. And Russell/Towns were -52 in 529 minutes.

NAW certainly is an upgrade to Forbes (who he replaced). And the three 2nd round picks give us something of value for future trade or prospects.

At the end of the day, this team didn't look like it was going anywhere with DLO. They were one game over .500 when they traded him and they are .500 now. Not a big difference. They were destined to cross their fingers for a play in either way IMO.

Well, that's not exactly apples to apples either. That lineup with Taurean Prince has only played 17 minutes over three games -- which is a little bit different than 54 minutes over four games. Still a limited sample size, agreed. And yes, Minnesota has no choice but to let it play out more. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean they'll be any good with more minutes.

The decision-makers get it wrong occasionally. Fans like us get it wrong occasionally. It's too early to say anything definitively, but the fact of the matter is that this team was 13-7 over their last 20 games (fifth-best in the NBA in that span) prior to the trade news with the 10th-best net rating in the NBA over that time. Their starting lineup (sans Karl-Anthony Towns) was among the most-effective units in the league -- fourth-best net rating out of 27 that have played 200 or more minutes together. We can literally see that the team isn't playing any better than they were previously, and they've actually been much worse on both ends of the court.

Once again, I truly understand the financial aspect of the situation so further explanation there isn't necessary, however, this team is in win-now mode. I didn't put that on them. You didn't put that on them. New management with new ownership's support put that on them. Their decisions over the summer made winning the top priority immediately. And if winning is indeed the main goal then they should have either retained D'Angelo Russell or moved him for players closer their primes with skill sets that might help this team create an identity, that might produce in areas they're actually weak in. Mike Conley Jr. never fit the bill. He's arguably worse defensively in the same role and a much lesser threat offensively, especially in late game situations, at this stage of his career. What area of weakness does his presence actually solve? Is he going to be an upgrade? I wouldn't hold my breath and the very early returns say no.

Cam - I think your analysis is spot on. The Wolves front office entered a win-now phase the minute they made the Gobert deal and I don't believe the DLO trade fits that paradigm. However, I believe Tim Conley and his minions truly believed the deal would help in the near term and that's what troubles me. I'm afraid they also think it sets them up better for next season, which I think is also mistaken.

[Carlos Danger]

I'm curious...how many more wins would you predict had they not made the trade?

In my "21 games left" thread, most are predicting us to go around .500 to end the season. Pretend the trade didn't happen. What would your predictions be?

Edit: We lost to that same Hornets team back on Nov. 25th. It was on the road. But we had both Towns and Russell.

[WildWolf2813]

I'm curious...how many more wins would you predict had they not made the trade?

In my "21 games left" thread, most are predicting us to go around .500 to end the season. Pretend the trade didn't happen. What would your predictions be?

Edit: We lost to that same Hornets team back on Nov. 25th. It was on the road. But we had both Towns and Russell.

I think it would be the same. The rebounding issues would remain the same. Pat Bev would still relied on even though he can't be trusted to execute the way he did a year ago, and if we're not using Wendell Moore despite a need for backup guards, there's no real reason we can assume they'd just hand Kessler consistent minutes with KAT and Vando in the lineup. It's a struggle to give Reid PT when they're healthy. We'd just be leaning on continuity helping us.

[Tactical unit]

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Towns-Gobert:
108.2 ORtg, 104.2 DRtg, +4.0 NetRtg in 260 minutes. Unit TS% of 58.4.

o Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
114.6 ORtg, 101.7 DRtg, +12.9 NetRtg in 253 minutes. Unit TS% of 62.6.

o Conley-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
104.3 ORtg, 117.9 DRtg, -13.6 NetRtg in 54 minutes. Unit TS% of 50.6.


I'll preface that it's still very early for this new group, but that supposed "better fit" and "chemistry" hasn't materialized in a positive way (yet?).

Minnesota's best lineup, and one that was among the most effective in the league with a significant sample size (253 minutes), and without Karl-Anthony Towns, is now much worse defensively while absolutely struggling on the offensive end since acquiring Mike Conley Jr.

There's an appropriate amount of time the Timberwolves will need to mesh, admittedly, but we're in the final stretch of the schedule here. There isn't a lot of time to gel and we're 1-3 since shuffling the deck while playing mostly bad basketball. It's difficult to watch. But hey, how about those lobs...

You (correctly) acknowledge it's not much of a sample size. Example, if you sub out Prince for Anderson, suddenly that five man line up (with Conley) is plus 16. I don't make much of it - we have to let this play out more.

The decision makers had plenty of minutes to evaluate DLO including practices. They didn't want to commit to him - end of story. Monster laid it out in another post. Once they knew they were not going to resign him - it made sense to trade him for some value back. Is Conley going to be an upgrade? Depends on who you ask. Rudy/Conley is +9 in only 71 minutes. Russell/Rudy were only +1 in 1100 minutes. And Russell/Towns were -52 in 529 minutes.

NAW certainly is an upgrade to Forbes (who he replaced). And the three 2nd round picks give us something of value for future trade or prospects.

At the end of the day, this team didn't look like it was going anywhere with DLO. They were one game over .500 when they traded him and they are .500 now. Not a big difference. They were destined to cross their fingers for a play in either way IMO.

Well, that's not exactly apples to apples either. That lineup with Taurean Prince has only played 17 minutes over three games -- which is a little bit different than 54 minutes over four games. Still a limited sample size, agreed. And yes, Minnesota has no choice but to let it play out more. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean they'll be any good with more minutes.

The decision-makers get it wrong occasionally. Fans like us get it wrong occasionally. It's too early to say anything definitively, but the fact of the matter is that this team was 13-7 over their last 20 games (fifth-best in the NBA in that span) prior to the trade news with the 10th-best net rating in the NBA over that time. Their starting lineup (sans Karl-Anthony Towns) was among the most-effective units in the league -- fourth-best net rating out of 27 that have played 200 or more minutes together. We can literally see that the team isn't playing any better than they were previously, and they've actually been much worse on both ends of the court.

Once again, I truly understand the financial aspect of the situation so further explanation there isn't necessary, however, this team is in win-now mode. I didn't put that on them. You didn't put that on them. New management with new ownership's support put that on them. Their decisions over the summer made winning the top priority immediately. And if winning is indeed the main goal then they should have either retained D'Angelo Russell or moved him for players closer their primes with skill sets that might help this team create an identity, that might produce in areas they're actually weak in. Mike Conley Jr. never fit the bill. He's arguably worse defensively in the same role and a much lesser threat offensively, especially in late game situations, at this stage of his career. What area of weakness does his presence actually solve? Is he going to be an upgrade? I wouldn't hold my breath and the very early returns say no.

Cam - I think your analysis is spot on. The Wolves front office entered a win-now phase the minute they made the Gobert deal and I don't believe the DLO trade fits that paradigm. However, I believe Tim Conley and his minions truly believed the deal would help in the near term and that's what troubles me. I'm afraid they also think it sets them up better for next season, which I think is also mistaken.

So keep DLO who they can't come to terms with is the better solution cause that got MN how far last year?

I don't know what all was available to TC but he probably didn't have many options and the deal they made preserved the salary slot with MC, adds 3 more valuable than you think 2nds, gets a guy they wanted to see first hand and retain the bird rights too with NAW. This narrative of DLO is more win now than MC & NAW is borderline delusional because it implies that DLO makes us a win now team. News flash this team isn't win now at all they are borderline play in worthy as I have been saying since the first 5 games this year.

Even though the last two losses were hard to swallow, I will continue to say I have more of a positive outlook for the team than at any other point in the year. Finch is being honest in the media and saying ANT is playing to much hero ball. They got to see a little bit of what they got in NAW and the offense appears capable, they will watch the last game and realize his defensive effort is better than other options at guard to put next to ANT. Will they be great or that much different than if they kept DLO? Probably not but they sure didn't hurt there win now by adding NAW a potential 3&D player and MC's veteran acumen. Please ditch this narrative of DLO is win now, the money wasn't right, the value in return was proper for the here and now and long term.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Even though the last two losses were hard to swallow, I will continue to say I have more of a positive outlook for the team than at any other point in the year.

I find this part of your response very difficult to believe considering the [poor] quality of basketball we've seen over the last handful of games and the very real possibility that Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't return this season.

[Carlos Danger]

Even though the last two losses were hard to swallow, I will continue to say I have more of a positive outlook for the team than at any other point in the year.

I find this part of your response very difficult to believe considering the [poor] quality of basketball we've seen over the last handful of games and the very real possibility that Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't return this season.

It's just been a weird season. We were all disappointed in how the season started when we had DLO and KAT and Rudy all healthy. It didn't look good, but some of us (myself included) kept saying "give it more time". Then KAT went down and we continued to flounder around .500. Even with DLO's hot streak leading up to his trade...the team was one friggin' game over .500. So, yes - you can point to 250 minutes of plus whatever, but it wasn't translating over a longer period of time. And that was my main point of it all.

I think most people would have predicted us to finish these last 20 games around .500 with or without DLO. It's a tough schedule. That doesn't mean DLO isn't a better scorer or overall better player than 35 year old Mike Conley. It just means that PG is just one piece of a much bigger puzzle that Finch still hasn't figured out. And that's why I think we should all just let go of this DLO vs. Mike Conley stuff. This team rides on the shoulders of Edwards/Gobert and hopefully KAT. Everyone else is just playing a minor role.