We are past the 1/4 mark of the season. I wanted to see how the Jazz are doing - as well as the guys we traded. My favorite stat for assigning value to a player is Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) from Basketball Reference. So here's the Jazz side of things. Note: The Jazz traded Patrick Beverley to the LA Lakers for Talen Horton Tucker and Stanley Johnson (who was later waived). I'm counting Horton Tucker as part of their haul from the trade.
[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]VORP[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Beasley[/td]
[td]0.4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Vanderbilt[/td]
[td]0.4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Kessler[/td]
[td]0.2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Tucker[/td]
[td]0.0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bolmaro[/td]
[td](0.1)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
Total VORP so far for Jazz is 0.9.
Total VORP so far for Rudy is 0.3.
So far, advantage Jazz.
Gobert Trade after 22 games
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
Interesting thread.
Horton Tucker is shooting like he plays for the Wolves and has a player option of 11 million next year. The Lakers did really well in that deal and I still don't know why Utah even agreed to it.
Horton Tucker is shooting like he plays for the Wolves and has a player option of 11 million next year. The Lakers did really well in that deal and I still don't know why Utah even agreed to it.
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AbeVigodaLive
- Posts: 10272
- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
monsterpile wrote:Interesting thread.
Horton Tucker is shooting like he plays for the Wolves and has a player option of 11 million next year. The Lakers did really well in that deal and I still don't know why Utah even agreed to it.
To be fair, P. Beverley has been one of the worst offensive players in the NBA this season.
How many other NBA starters are averaging 4.2 points on sub 27% shooting?
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
AbeVigodaLive wrote:monsterpile wrote:Interesting thread.
Horton Tucker is shooting like he plays for the Wolves and has a player option of 11 million next year. The Lakers did really well in that deal and I still don't know why Utah even agreed to it.
To be fair, P. Beverley has been one of the worst offensive players in the NBA this season.
How many other NBA starters are averaging 4.2 points on sub 27% shooting?
Yeah absolutely but they don't have to worry about paying him 11 million next season to be at best a replacement player like Horton Tucker. Plus how you put a price on a guy dishing out punk cheap shots. Not just anyone can do that!
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
I'd also add that it would be interesting to revisit this as the season goes on and the comparison could include a couple of the players that are on the roster because of open roster spots created by the deal. So far that isn't going to help the Wolves VORP score compared to the Jazz.
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
Interesting way of looking at the trade, Anthony.
Another way of looking at this would be to compare the combined VORP of the players given up to Rudy's expected VORP. Rudy is generally a 4 VORP guy annually, so he typically would be at 1 at the quarter mark of the season...slightly higher than the VORP of the players given up. Further, Vando and Beasley were nowhere near a .4 VORP at this time last year, so they are performing better than they did with us.
Conclusion: At this point in time, it looks like the deal was good in theory and bad (so far) in execution.
Another way of looking at this would be to compare the combined VORP of the players given up to Rudy's expected VORP. Rudy is generally a 4 VORP guy annually, so he typically would be at 1 at the quarter mark of the season...slightly higher than the VORP of the players given up. Further, Vando and Beasley were nowhere near a .4 VORP at this time last year, so they are performing better than they did with us.
Conclusion: At this point in time, it looks like the deal was good in theory and bad (so far) in execution.
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Carlos Danger
- Posts: 2402
- Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
To add context to my original post. This is what the players involved did last year/pre-trade:
[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]VORP[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Beverley[/td]
[td]1.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Vanderbilt[/td]
[td]1.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Beasley[/td]
[td]0.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bolmaro[/td]
[td](0.2)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Total[/td]
[td]3.3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Gobert[/td]
[td]3.6[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
So slight advantage in VORP at time of trade for Wolves. Obviously that does not factor in all the future draft picks. Of course, draft picks can easily be negative VORP - even Anthony Edwards was negative his first year. Kessler seems like he was a good pick in hindsight.
[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]VORP[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Beverley[/td]
[td]1.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Vanderbilt[/td]
[td]1.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Beasley[/td]
[td]0.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bolmaro[/td]
[td](0.2)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Total[/td]
[td]3.3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Gobert[/td]
[td]3.6[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
So slight advantage in VORP at time of trade for Wolves. Obviously that does not factor in all the future draft picks. Of course, draft picks can easily be negative VORP - even Anthony Edwards was negative his first year. Kessler seems like he was a good pick in hindsight.
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
AbeVigodaLive wrote:monsterpile wrote:Interesting thread.
Horton Tucker is shooting like he plays for the Wolves and has a player option of 11 million next year. The Lakers did really well in that deal and I still don't know why Utah even agreed to it.
To be fair, P. Beverley has been one of the worst offensive players in the NBA this season.
How many other NBA starters are averaging 4.2 points on sub 27% shooting?
While I really liked what he did for us last year, it's refreshing to see a former Wolf shit the bed with another team. Usually it's the other way around! It's been amazing (and frustrating) to see guys like Rubio, Tyus, and Wiggins all suddenly figure out how to make 3-pointers consistently the second they stop wearing a Wolves uniform! Even Vanderbilt makes them occasionally now!
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
How the teams have played with their new players
Vanderbit lineups: -4.5 (26th percenitle), -11.1 on/off numbers (13th percentile)
Beasley lineups: -1.9 (38th percentile), -7.4 on/off numbers (22nd percentile)
Beverley lineups: 0.4 (52nd percentile), +3.9 on/off numbers (66th percentile), beverly is having one of the worst offensive seasons in NBA history
Kessler lineups: +4.6 (76th percentile), +4.5 on/off numbers (67th percentile), in a limited role he has been really good defensivly for the jazz
Bolmoro: only 13 non garbage time possessions for Bolmoro this year, Jazz are a +53.8 in those possessions, haha, he is out of the league after this year more than likely.
Gobert: -2.7 (34th percentile), -6.8 on/off numbers (24th percentile)
22 games in the Rudy trade has not went perfectly and I want to continue to put context to things through out the season.
I get all my data from cleaningtheglass.com and here are my takeaways
-Jazz have been significantly better when Vando and Beasley are not on the court this year. The Jazz have been statistically one of the worst teams in the NBA defensively when Vando is on the court this year. The same goes for Beasley, the Jazz are getting destroyed defensively when Beasley is on the court. The Jazz are actually in the 0th percentile (so last) in the NBA in defense when Beasley and Vando play together.
-Beverley is having one of the worst offensive season in NBA history. The Lakers are a good defensive team though what increases Beverley value I suppose but he has been so god awful at offense this year.
-Kessler has been really effective in a limited role for the Jazz. He has lead a bench defensive unit on a bad Jazz defensive team and they are solid defensively when Kessler is on the floor. Tim Connelly is just a good drafter, Moore also had a good first showing in his NBA minutes. You can rip Connelly doing the Gobert trade because he gave up 4 assets in picks what he is the best at (You can reverse that also that connelly is so good at finding guys we can trade picks for elite talent and Connelly will still be able to find good young NBA talent with 2nd round picks).
-Bolmro will be out of the NBA in approx. 60 games
-The Wolves have been a elite defensive team with rudy in the game and that is still the case 22 games into the season. The wolves are a very bad defensive team when rudy is not on the floor. The Wolves are terrible offesnively when rudy is on the floor and they are elite with Rudy off the floor. They need to fix that.
-My final conclusion 22 games is the Wolves gave up no needle movers in the trade. Once again Pat Bev, Vando, Beasley we all loved but they are proving once again they are just guys. Kessler might turn out to be something though, to early to tell in his limited role. At the moment it has not been a great trade for the Wolves because the whole package of Gobert 22 games has not moved the needle on both ends of the floor. Gobert has massively moved the needle positively for the wolves on the defensive end, and the Gobert lineups have massively moved the needle the other way on the offensive end. Historically Gobert has been a part of elite offensives, hopefully the team figures out how to play with rudy offensively and Nowell, Dlo, Jmac, Rivers, Forbes and Kat all don't shoot a career low from 3 for the whole season like they are all currently doing.
Vanderbit lineups: -4.5 (26th percenitle), -11.1 on/off numbers (13th percentile)
Beasley lineups: -1.9 (38th percentile), -7.4 on/off numbers (22nd percentile)
Beverley lineups: 0.4 (52nd percentile), +3.9 on/off numbers (66th percentile), beverly is having one of the worst offensive seasons in NBA history
Kessler lineups: +4.6 (76th percentile), +4.5 on/off numbers (67th percentile), in a limited role he has been really good defensivly for the jazz
Bolmoro: only 13 non garbage time possessions for Bolmoro this year, Jazz are a +53.8 in those possessions, haha, he is out of the league after this year more than likely.
Gobert: -2.7 (34th percentile), -6.8 on/off numbers (24th percentile)
22 games in the Rudy trade has not went perfectly and I want to continue to put context to things through out the season.
I get all my data from cleaningtheglass.com and here are my takeaways
-Jazz have been significantly better when Vando and Beasley are not on the court this year. The Jazz have been statistically one of the worst teams in the NBA defensively when Vando is on the court this year. The same goes for Beasley, the Jazz are getting destroyed defensively when Beasley is on the court. The Jazz are actually in the 0th percentile (so last) in the NBA in defense when Beasley and Vando play together.
-Beverley is having one of the worst offensive season in NBA history. The Lakers are a good defensive team though what increases Beverley value I suppose but he has been so god awful at offense this year.
-Kessler has been really effective in a limited role for the Jazz. He has lead a bench defensive unit on a bad Jazz defensive team and they are solid defensively when Kessler is on the floor. Tim Connelly is just a good drafter, Moore also had a good first showing in his NBA minutes. You can rip Connelly doing the Gobert trade because he gave up 4 assets in picks what he is the best at (You can reverse that also that connelly is so good at finding guys we can trade picks for elite talent and Connelly will still be able to find good young NBA talent with 2nd round picks).
-Bolmro will be out of the NBA in approx. 60 games
-The Wolves have been a elite defensive team with rudy in the game and that is still the case 22 games into the season. The wolves are a very bad defensive team when rudy is not on the floor. The Wolves are terrible offesnively when rudy is on the floor and they are elite with Rudy off the floor. They need to fix that.
-My final conclusion 22 games is the Wolves gave up no needle movers in the trade. Once again Pat Bev, Vando, Beasley we all loved but they are proving once again they are just guys. Kessler might turn out to be something though, to early to tell in his limited role. At the moment it has not been a great trade for the Wolves because the whole package of Gobert 22 games has not moved the needle on both ends of the floor. Gobert has massively moved the needle positively for the wolves on the defensive end, and the Gobert lineups have massively moved the needle the other way on the offensive end. Historically Gobert has been a part of elite offensives, hopefully the team figures out how to play with rudy offensively and Nowell, Dlo, Jmac, Rivers, Forbes and Kat all don't shoot a career low from 3 for the whole season like they are all currently doing.
Re: Gobert Trade after 22 games
Good stuff as usual Kek.
I think the story for the Wolves is less about how Gobert is performing and more about the domino effect of his presence on other guys (DLO, KAT, Ant, etc.). Clearly his presence has been disruptive to on court chemistry. Finch and the coaching staff are responsible for getting it figured out. Obviously the players are too, but they didn't suddenly stop knowing how to play basketball because Gobert is on the roster!
And dammit, can the shooting gods please smile upon this franchise just once!
I think the story for the Wolves is less about how Gobert is performing and more about the domino effect of his presence on other guys (DLO, KAT, Ant, etc.). Clearly his presence has been disruptive to on court chemistry. Finch and the coaching staff are responsible for getting it figured out. Obviously the players are too, but they didn't suddenly stop knowing how to play basketball because Gobert is on the roster!
And dammit, can the shooting gods please smile upon this franchise just once!