Gobert Trade after 22 games

[Carlos Danger]

How the teams have played with their new players
Vanderbit lineups: -4.5 (26th percenitle), -11.1 on/off numbers (13th percentile)
Beasley lineups: -1.9 (38th percentile), -7.4 on/off numbers (22nd percentile)
Beverley lineups: 0.4 (52nd percentile), +3.9 on/off numbers (66th percentile), beverly is having one of the worst offensive seasons in NBA history
Kessler lineups: +4.6 (76th percentile), +4.5 on/off numbers (67th percentile), in a limited role he has been really good defensivly for the jazz
Bolmoro: only 13 non garbage time possessions for Bolmoro this year, Jazz are a +53.8 in those possessions, haha, he is out of the league after this year more than likely.

Gobert: -2.7 (34th percentile), -6.8 on/off numbers (24th percentile)


22 games in the Rudy trade has not went perfectly and I want to continue to put context to things through out the season.

I get all my data from cleaningtheglass.com and here are my takeaways
-Jazz have been significantly better when Vando and Beasley are not on the court this year. The Jazz have been statistically one of the worst teams in the NBA defensively when Vando is on the court this year. The same goes for Beasley, the Jazz are getting destroyed defensively when Beasley is on the court. The Jazz are actually in the 0th percentile (so last) in the NBA in defense when Beasley and Vando play together.

-Beverley is having one of the worst offensive season in NBA history. The Lakers are a good defensive team though what increases Beverley value I suppose but he has been so god awful at offense this year.

-Kessler has been really effective in a limited role for the Jazz. He has lead a bench defensive unit on a bad Jazz defensive team and they are solid defensively when Kessler is on the floor. Tim Connelly is just a good drafter, Moore also had a good first showing in his NBA minutes. You can rip Connelly doing the Gobert trade because he gave up 4 assets in picks what he is the best at (You can reverse that also that connelly is so good at finding guys we can trade picks for elite talent and Connelly will still be able to find good young NBA talent with 2nd round picks).

-Bolmro will be out of the NBA in approx. 60 games

-The Wolves have been a elite defensive team with rudy in the game and that is still the case 22 games into the season. The wolves are a very bad defensive team when rudy is not on the floor. The Wolves are terrible offesnively when rudy is on the floor and they are elite with Rudy off the floor. They need to fix that.

-My final conclusion 22 games is the Wolves gave up no needle movers in the trade. Once again Pat Bev, Vando, Beasley we all loved but they are proving once again they are just guys. Kessler might turn out to be something though, to early to tell in his limited role. At the moment it has not been a great trade for the Wolves because the whole package of Gobert 22 games has not moved the needle on both ends of the floor. Gobert has massively moved the needle positively for the wolves on the defensive end, and the Gobert lineups have massively moved the needle the other way on the offensive end. Historically Gobert has been a part of elite offensives, hopefully the team figures out how to play with rudy offensively and Nowell, Dlo, Jmac, Rivers, Forbes and Kat all don't shoot a career low from 3 for the whole season like they are all currently doing.

Interesting stuff - thanks for posting. I tried to repeat your data, but it looks like I need to sub to that site to get all access and I'm too cheap to do that. I agree with some of your conclusions - but not all of them.

I agree that we didn't give up any needle movers in the trade. However, IMO we certainly gave up useful players in Bev/Vando/Bease. We all got to watch them play as Wolves and are familiar with their strengths and weaknesses. All of them were positive players in my book based on the stats I trust including VORP. They contributed heavy minutes on a playoff team last year and Vando/Bease are doing the same for a winning Jazz team this year. I don't know if I would trust data that shows them as terrible players. I did confirm from NBA.com that they rank at the bottom in +/-. But as you note, by that same metric Leandro Bolmaro is a positive player. I'm not saying the stat is completely worthless - I do look at it. I'm just saying I personally trust VORP more when attempting to gauge a players overall value. It's just been simpler and more reliable (for me anyway). Of course, there is not any stat that is perfect and we are all entitled to use/rely on the ones we like and trust. VORP is my go to though.

[Jester1534]

We are past the 1/4 mark of the season. I wanted to see how the Jazz are doing - as well as the guys we traded. My favorite stat for assigning value to a player is Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) from Basketball Reference. So here's the Jazz side of things. Note: The Jazz traded Patrick Beverley to the LA Lakers for Talen Horton Tucker and Stanley Johnson (who was later waived). I'm counting Horton Tucker as part of their haul from the trade.


[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]VORP[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Beasley[/td]
[td]0.4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Vanderbilt[/td]
[td]0.4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Kessler[/td]
[td]0.2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Tucker[/td]
[td]0.0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bolmaro[/td]
[td](0.1)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Total VORP so far for Jazz is 0.9.
Total VORP so far for Rudy is 0.3.

So far, advantage Jazz.

Couldn't you technically add McDaniels to the wolves side. I know he wasn't part of the trade but they have up an extra first to keep him.

[Carlos Danger]

Couldn't you technically add McDaniels to the wolves side. I know he wasn't part of the trade but they have up an extra first to keep him.

Sorry Jester - I'm not following you. Can you explain further? Are you saying by trading the pick McDaniels is playing more?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Couldn't you technically add McDaniels to the wolves side. I know he wasn't part of the trade but they have up an extra first to keep him.

Sorry Jester - I'm not following you. Can you explain further? Are you saying by trading the pick McDaniels is playing more?

I sort of see what Jester's saying, but I wouldn't include him in the type of comparison Mr. Danger is making because he's basically doing player production/value OUT versus player production/value IN, and Jaden McDaniels was already on Minnesota's roster. Hopefully that helps.

[Carlos Danger]

I sort of see what Jester's saying, but I wouldn't include him in the type of comparison Mr. Danger is making because he's basically doing player production/value OUT versus player production/value IN, and Jaden McDaniels was already on Minnesota's roster. Hopefully that helps.

Correct. This is just how I organize it in my head. I was mainly doing this for my own curiosity, but thought I'd post/share. There are many different ways to look at it. Q is correct in stating that how it effects other players is part of it too. I'm not that ambitious to try and calibrate all that though. It's another reason I like VORP. It's a lazy man's stat - I don't have to do any real adjustments/additional context. Bottom line, none of this matters as long as we take care of business on our end and win games. But I am always curious how the guys we move on from each year are doing. Patrick Bev's poor start was shocking as I thought he was very good for us.

[Q-is-here]

The guy that has surprised me is Kessler. Not that I thought he'd be a total bust, but his effectiveness off the bench looks legit and something he can build from going forward. I'm happy for the kid, but it does hurt a bit considering he's a younger, less experienced facsimile of Gobert at about 1 gazillionth of the cost.

[Jester1534]

I sort of see what Jester's saying, but I wouldn't include him in the type of comparison Mr. Danger is making because he's basically doing player production/value OUT versus player production/value IN, and Jaden McDaniels was already on Minnesota's roster. Hopefully that helps.

Correct. This is just how I organize it in my head. I was mainly doing this for my own curiosity, but thought I'd post/share. There are many different ways to look at it. Q is correct in stating that how it effects other players is part of it too. I'm not that ambitious to try and calibrate all that though. It's another reason I like VORP. It's a lazy man's stat - I don't have to do any real adjustments/additional context. Bottom line, none of this matters as long as we take care of business on our end and win games. But I am always curious how the guys we move on from each year are doing. Patrick Bev's poor start was shocking as I thought he was very good for us.

Cam pretty much said what I was thinking but I think when comparing even though he was on our team last year we got to keep McDaniels in the deal.

So the deal to me is those guys for Gobert and McDaniels because if we didn't trade a first McDaniels he would be an Utah asset on your list. For instance you will have to put the Vorp of the future player Utah picks with the wolves draft pick.

Thanks for read though as a WAR guy in baseball this kind of puts it in Lehman terms.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

Interesting way of looking at the trade, Anthony.

Another way of looking at this would be to compare the combined VORP of the players given up to Rudy's expected VORP. Rudy is generally a 4 VORP guy annually, so he typically would be at 1 at the quarter mark of the season...slightly higher than the VORP of the players given up. Further, Vando and Beasley were nowhere near a .4 VORP at this time last year, so they are performing better than they did with us.

Conclusion: At this point in time, it looks like the deal was good in theory and bad (so far) in execution.

Bad in theory, worse in execution. Just my opinion, but I don't know how anyone ever thought this was a good idea (aka good in theory)

I don't know why I respond as I'm obviously blackballed on here for being right and telling the truth lol... couldn't resist. This trade was never a good idea (not because of Gobert the player) and will be a far worse trade than Dlo by the time it's said and done.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Bad in theory, worse in execution. Just my opinion, but I don't know how anyone ever thought this was a good idea (aka good in theory)

I don't know why I respond as I'm obviously blackballed on here for being right and telling the truth lol... couldn't resist. This trade was never a good idea (not because of Gobert the player) and will be a far worse trade than Dlo by the time it's said and done.

Loser, you're not "blackballed" on here or anything of the sort, but you have absolutely earned the reputation, I think, as an internet troll. Deliberate or not, that's how you've appeared on this forum from the very beginning, and it's been as consistent a theme as any. Your activity log stands as convenient proof of this as you will randomly pop in, make a snide remark (usually towards me, which is whatever) and then we often don't hear from you again until the cycle repeats itself.

To be fair, I have actually seen you articulate basketball takes in the past -- so I know it's possible. For whatever reason, though, you choose to reduce yourself to idiotic trolling instead of contributing to the discussion like you've shown capable of doing here and there. You seem like a passionate fan and you're obviously opinionated, which is what led you here in the first place, but I think posters would respond much better to you if you cut out a lot of the unnecessary behavior. It gets old and it lacks value... People discard things that have no value.

That's enough of that. As for being "right" or telling the "truth" on this matter -- maybe, but it's far too early for either side to claim victory. It's literally been 22 games. Maybe we can pump the brakes on the back-patting until we have significant data to work with.

[FNG]

I sort of see what Jester's saying, but I wouldn't include him in the type of comparison Mr. Danger is making because he's basically doing player production/value OUT versus player production/value IN, and Jaden McDaniels was already on Minnesota's roster. Hopefully that helps.

Correct. This is just how I organize it in my head. I was mainly doing this for my own curiosity, but thought I'd post/share. There are many different ways to look at it. Q is correct in stating that how it effects other players is part of it too. I'm not that ambitious to try and calibrate all that though. It's another reason I like VORP. It's a lazy man's stat - I don't have to do any real adjustments/additional context. Bottom line, none of this matters as long as we take care of business on our end and win games. But I am always curious how the guys we move on from each year are doing. Patrick Bev's poor start was shocking as I thought he was very good for us.

Cam pretty much said what I was thinking but I think when comparing even though he was on our team last year we got to keep McDaniels in the deal.

So the deal to me is those guys for Gobert and McDaniels because if we didn't trade a first McDaniels he would be an Utah asset on your list. For instance you will have to put the Vorp of the future player Utah picks with the wolves draft pick.

Thanks for read though as a WAR guy in baseball this kind of puts it in Lehman terms

Yes, finally I get some cred in the Timberwolves board!


https://mspmag.com/downloads/29672/download/Tom_Lehman.jpg?cb=96337a8bb16211de15a7dbe0b588ef6a&w=640&h=