Game Report - Wolves v. Warriors

[Lipoli390]

Another point about rebounding - a point KG made. He said, "rebounds don't come to you; you have to go get them." Our guys wait and watch.

[Q-is-here]

https://twitter.com/devinthelab/status/1597001247436914689?s=42&t=JroBKuD4c-B-c5-iKKewWg

Rudy has some rough clips no doubt but I will say for the most part Rudy has held up his end of the trade.

Leads nba in rebounding, #2 in the amongst center defending the rim only behind Turner, wolves are a 90th percentile team in defense (elite) when Rudy is on the floor and 32nd percentile defensive team with Rudy off the floor (below average), Rudy is also shooting a career high from the line on his career average on attempts.

At the end of the day this franchise goes how Ant goes and Ant has not improved and goes in and out of games, Kat/Jmac/dlo/Nowell/Forbes/rivers all shooting a career low from 3. Let that sink in 6 players with 4 or more years of NBA experience shooting a career low from 3. Wolves shooting 28% from 3 in losses this year what is absolutely pathetic, for reference wolves shot 33% last year from 3 in losses.

At the end of the day the wolves go how Ant goes and his lack of improvement this year so far is troubling.

I will still defend Rudy though because wolves have been an elite defensive team with Rudy on the floor statistically and have fallen off when he is off the floor. Also he leads the nba in rebounding. So for the love of god can someone else box out

Good stuff Kek.

Yeah, I think folks are nit-picking the fact that we are trying to get the ball to Rudy and involve him more in the offense, which has had mixed success and looked clunky at times.

BTW, Ant's lack of improvement would have been just as troubling without the Rudy trade. Middling draft picks weren't going to save us then either. It's an unfortunate reality - not all players improve on a linear path and some stagnate after just a season or two. Let's hope with Ant that he's on the non-linear path...still so young.

Rudy's defensive stats overstate his contribution to the Wolves in my view. Among other things, they fail to fully capture the negative impact he has on the team's offense and overall chemistry. Those stats also fail to reflect the negative impact of losing the players the Wolves traded to get him. Last night against a good team with its best players in the game provided a more realistic account of Gobert's defensive contribution. And regarding Gobert's rebounding, I'll mention again the fact that Rudy is pulling in rebounds that KAT used to get - exact same area of the floor. He's just a better at it than KAT, but the net impact on team rebounding isn't there and that's what matters. We're not getting the longer rebounds and loose balls - not getting the 8.5 rebounds we were getting from the mobile Vando flying around or the 4.5 rebounds we got from Beverley. It wasn't imperative to keep those two particular players, but those are the types of players we need around KAT.

More important, however, is the fact that we didn't and couldn't know how much the 20 year old Edwards would improve or whether he'll ever become a star. Same for McDaniels. As Draymond Green and others have said, Edwards becoming a star was the key to whether the Gobert deal would be a success. I think that was one key, but not the only one. The folly of the deal has never been about middling draft picks saving us. It's been about preserving assets and using them to take this team to the next level at a time when we know what level the team is currently at. Last year's late season success didn't provide a solid enough foundation for those judgments. Then it's about using those assets to add players who are optimal fits for the team we already have. I've always thought the Gobert deal was the wrong deal at the wrong time because we didn't know enough about the young team we had after last season and because Rudy's fit was at least questionable - not to mention the fact that Gobert is 10 years older than our most talented player.

Watching how the Wolves coaching staff is attempting to use Gobert offensively in ways he's never been used is telling. It suggests that the Wolves organization premised the trade in part of their mistaken belief that they could get materially more from Gobert than all those well-coached Jazz teams over the past 8 years. It was a classic example of smartest guy in the room syndrome. There's a reason no other team was willing to give up anything close to what the Wolves gave up for Rudy. If the Wolves put Rudy on the trade market right now I wonder what they'd get? Any realistic answer to that question provides the most telling insight into the folly of the trade.

Maybe the Wolves will turn things around in the next couple months. The team's talent is definitely better than the team's quality of play. That fact alone offers a glimmer of hope. But if it were up to me, I'd trade Rudy for as many pennies on the dollar as we can get - a good player or two and a couple future first-round picks if possible. I'd sign Garza and put a team on the floor that plays hard all the time - a team that's fun to watch. Right now, watching the Wolves play is the antithesis of fun.

If you are going to trade Rudy, you might as well trade KAT as well and re-build around Ant and Jaden. We already know that KAT can't anchor a defense playing Center full-time and he could bring back a substantial return that would allow the Wolves to re-tool without having to tank for multiple seasons. But now we're getting ahead of ourselves!

[FNG]

Lip, you make some fair points in your post, and time will tell whether the Gobert trade was successful or not. I certainly agree that the Wolves' offense does not look fluid with Rudy out there (although I would put it a different way...we seldom look fluid when JMac isn't out there).

But I think your comments about the Wolves' rebounding are off the mark. Yes, Rudy does get some rebounds that KAT used to get, but I'm not going to let that detract from the fact that Rudy is second in the league in rebounding. And the stats say the Wolves are actually a slightly better rebounding team than they were last year despite the loss of Vando et al. We still have a negative 1.1 rebounding differnential, but I would argue that a team that yields so many open 3-point looks and regularly is in the top 3 teams in 3-point attempts against is going to struggle in rebounding differential...3-point misses produce long rebounds, which frequently are corralled by the offensive's guards. All that said, our rebounding differential of 1.7 last year was worse than this year.

The jury is out on the Gobert trade, but in evaluating his impact, I would provide these grades after 19 games:

Offense: Incomplete, but initial returns are not favorable. Offense often looks clunky, but again, I would argue that has more to do with who is at PG than center.

Defense: A. You just can't argue with the stats Kekgeek keeps providing that show our defense is elite when Rudy is on the court, and lunch meat when he's not.

Rebounding: B. He is second in the league in rebounds, and our differential has improved despite losing Vando.

[Lipoli390]

https://twitter.com/devinthelab/status/1597001247436914689?s=42&t=JroBKuD4c-B-c5-iKKewWg

Rudy has some rough clips no doubt but I will say for the most part Rudy has held up his end of the trade.

Leads nba in rebounding, #2 in the amongst center defending the rim only behind Turner, wolves are a 90th percentile team in defense (elite) when Rudy is on the floor and 32nd percentile defensive team with Rudy off the floor (below average), Rudy is also shooting a career high from the line on his career average on attempts.

At the end of the day this franchise goes how Ant goes and Ant has not improved and goes in and out of games, Kat/Jmac/dlo/Nowell/Forbes/rivers all shooting a career low from 3. Let that sink in 6 players with 4 or more years of NBA experience shooting a career low from 3. Wolves shooting 28% from 3 in losses this year what is absolutely pathetic, for reference wolves shot 33% last year from 3 in losses.

At the end of the day the wolves go how Ant goes and his lack of improvement this year so far is troubling.

I will still defend Rudy though because wolves have been an elite defensive team with Rudy on the floor statistically and have fallen off when he is off the floor. Also he leads the nba in rebounding. So for the love of god can someone else box out

Good stuff Kek.

Yeah, I think folks are nit-picking the fact that we are trying to get the ball to Rudy and involve him more in the offense, which has had mixed success and looked clunky at times.

BTW, Ant's lack of improvement would have been just as troubling without the Rudy trade. Middling draft picks weren't going to save us then either. It's an unfortunate reality - not all players improve on a linear path and some stagnate after just a season or two. Let's hope with Ant that he's on the non-linear path...still so young.

Rudy's defensive stats overstate his contribution to the Wolves in my view. Among other things, they fail to fully capture the negative impact he has on the team's offense and overall chemistry. Those stats also fail to reflect the negative impact of losing the players the Wolves traded to get him. Last night against a good team with its best players in the game provided a more realistic account of Gobert's defensive contribution. And regarding Gobert's rebounding, I'll mention again the fact that Rudy is pulling in rebounds that KAT used to get - exact same area of the floor. He's just a better at it than KAT, but the net impact on team rebounding isn't there and that's what matters. We're not getting the longer rebounds and loose balls - not getting the 8.5 rebounds we were getting from the mobile Vando flying around or the 4.5 rebounds we got from Beverley. It wasn't imperative to keep those two particular players, but those are the types of players we need around KAT.

More important, however, is the fact that we didn't and couldn't know how much the 20 year old Edwards would improve or whether he'll ever become a star. Same for McDaniels. As Draymond Green and others have said, Edwards becoming a star was the key to whether the Gobert deal would be a success. I think that was one key, but not the only one. The folly of the deal has never been about middling draft picks saving us. It's been about preserving assets and using them to take this team to the next level at a time when we know what level the team is currently at. Last year's late season success didn't provide a solid enough foundation for those judgments. Then it's about using those assets to add players who are optimal fits for the team we already have. I've always thought the Gobert deal was the wrong deal at the wrong time because we didn't know enough about the young team we had after last season and because Rudy's fit was at least questionable - not to mention the fact that Gobert is 10 years older than our most talented player.

Watching how the Wolves coaching staff is attempting to use Gobert offensively in ways he's never been used is telling. It suggests that the Wolves organization premised the trade in part of their mistaken belief that they could get materially more from Gobert than all those well-coached Jazz teams over the past 8 years. It was a classic example of smartest guy in the room syndrome. There's a reason no other team was willing to give up anything close to what the Wolves gave up for Rudy. If the Wolves put Rudy on the trade market right now I wonder what they'd get? Any realistic answer to that question provides the most telling insight into the folly of the trade.

Maybe the Wolves will turn things around in the next couple months. The team's talent is definitely better than the team's quality of play. That fact alone offers a glimmer of hope. But if it were up to me, I'd trade Rudy for as many pennies on the dollar as we can get - a good player or two and a couple future first-round picks if possible. I'd sign Garza and put a team on the floor that plays hard all the time - a team that's fun to watch. Right now, watching the Wolves play is the antithesis of fun.

If you are going to trade Rudy, you might as well trade KAT as well and re-build around Ant and Jaden. We already know that KAT can't anchor a defense playing Center full-time and he could bring back a substantial return that would allow the Wolves to re-tool without having to tank for multiple seasons. But now we're getting ahead of ourselves!

We are getting ahead of ourselves, but just for fun I suggest doing things in stages. We can't trade KAT until after the season under League rules. So let's start by trading Rudy to get a couple picks back and also see if we can get a better mix of players on the floor this season who fit well together and play hard all the time. Then let's see where we're at at the end of the season when we can consider trading KAT. Of course, none of this will happen. :)

[Lipoli390]

Q - It will be fun to see my posts about trading Gobert quoted on this board when the Wolves are playing in the NBA finals with Rudy leading the way. :)

[Q-is-here]

Q - It will be fun to see my posts about trading Gobert quoted on this board when the Wolves are playing in the NBA finals with Rudy leading the way. :)

Ha! Well, I've given up on that notion. I'm just hoping they find a way to click together and play with more effort and joy and get themselves into a position to win one playoff series. Hard to envision even that scenario from where we sit today, but you never know.

[rapsuperstar31]

https://twitter.com/devinthelab/status/1597001247436914689?s=42&t=JroBKuD4c-B-c5-iKKewWg

Rudy has some rough clips no doubt but I will say for the most part Rudy has held up his end of the trade.

Leads nba in rebounding, #2 in the amongst center defending the rim only behind Turner, wolves are a 90th percentile team in defense (elite) when Rudy is on the floor and 32nd percentile defensive team with Rudy off the floor (below average), Rudy is also shooting a career high from the line on his career average on attempts.

At the end of the day this franchise goes how Ant goes and Ant has not improved and goes in and out of games, Kat/Jmac/dlo/Nowell/Forbes/rivers all shooting a career low from 3. Let that sink in 6 players with 4 or more years of NBA experience shooting a career low from 3. Wolves shooting 28% from 3 in losses this year what is absolutely pathetic, for reference wolves shot 33% last year from 3 in losses.

At the end of the day the wolves go how Ant goes and his lack of improvement this year so far is troubling.

I will still defend Rudy though because wolves have been an elite defensive team with Rudy on the floor statistically and have fallen off when he is off the floor. Also he leads the nba in rebounding. So for the love of god can someone else box out

Good stuff Kek.

Yeah, I think folks are nit-picking the fact that we are trying to get the ball to Rudy and involve him more in the offense, which has had mixed success and looked clunky at times.

BTW, Ant's lack of improvement would have been just as troubling without the Rudy trade. Middling draft picks weren't going to save us then either. It's an unfortunate reality - not all players improve on a linear path and some stagnate after just a season or two. Let's hope with Ant that he's on the non-linear path...still so young.

Rudy's defensive stats overstate his contribution to the Wolves in my view. Among other things, they fail to fully capture the negative impact he has on the team's offense and overall chemistry. Those stats also fail to reflect the negative impact of losing the players the Wolves traded to get him. Last night against a good team with its best players in the game provided a more realistic account of Gobert's defensive contribution. And regarding Gobert's rebounding, I'll mention again the fact that Rudy is pulling in rebounds that KAT used to get - exact same area of the floor. He's just a better at it than KAT, but the net impact on team rebounding isn't there and that's what matters. We're not getting the longer rebounds and loose balls - not getting the 8.5 rebounds we were getting from the mobile Vando flying around or the 4.5 rebounds we got from Beverley. It wasn't imperative to keep those two particular players, but those are the types of players we need around KAT.

More important, however, is the fact that we didn't and couldn't know how much the 20 year old Edwards would improve or whether he'll ever become a star. Same for McDaniels. As Draymond Green and others have said, Edwards becoming a star was the key to whether the Gobert deal would be a success. I think that was one key, but not the only one. The folly of the deal has never been about middling draft picks saving us. It's been about preserving assets and using them to take this team to the next level at a time when we know what level the team is currently at. Last year's late season success didn't provide a solid enough foundation for those judgments. Then it's about using those assets to add players who are optimal fits for the team we already have. I've always thought the Gobert deal was the wrong deal at the wrong time because we didn't know enough about the young team we had after last season and because Rudy's fit was at least questionable - not to mention the fact that Gobert is 10 years older than our most talented player.

Watching how the Wolves coaching staff is attempting to use Gobert offensively in ways he's never been used is telling. It suggests that the Wolves organization premised the trade in part of their mistaken belief that they could get materially more from Gobert than all those well-coached Jazz teams over the past 8 years. It was a classic example of smartest guy in the room syndrome. There's a reason no other team was willing to give up anything close to what the Wolves gave up for Rudy. If the Wolves put Rudy on the trade market right now I wonder what they'd get? Any realistic answer to that question provides the most telling insight into the folly of the trade.

Maybe the Wolves will turn things around in the next couple months. The team's talent is definitely better than the team's quality of play. That fact alone offers a glimmer of hope. But if it were up to me, I'd trade Rudy for as many pennies on the dollar as we can get - a good player or two and a couple future first-round picks if possible. I'd sign Garza and put a team on the floor that plays hard all the time - a team that's fun to watch. Right now, watching the Wolves play is the antithesis of fun.

I didn't really watch Utah so I can't say for sure, but I feel like Gobert is changing they way he plays defense based on our poor rebounding. Whenever he goes for a block, no one else will rebound the basketball. Gobert knows he has to be available to rebound the basketball, because no one else will block out their man.

[thedoper]

I thought the biggest benefit for any player would be KAT on the defensive end. I think it is crystal clear that KAT is a bad defender. He doesn't box out unless a player is on his hip. The fouls are still top of the league. The worst part about it is that he doesn't seem to realize that he is a bad defender. It not a personnel issue, or finding complimentary pieces on that side of the ball. KAT brings team defense down in a tangible, significant way. Our rebounding should have taken a massive leap, but KAT has zero interest in boxing out quicker faster players. After 20 games, it seems clear that he can't play the 4.

[kekgeek]

I thought the biggest benefit for any player would be KAT on the defensive end. I think it is crystal clear that KAT is a bad defender. He doesn't box out unless a player is on his hip. The fouls are still top of the league. The worst part about it is that he doesn't seem to realize that he is a bad defender. It not a personnel issue, or finding complimentary pieces on that side of the ball. KAT brings team defense down in a tangible, significant way. Our rebounding should have taken a massive leap, but KAT has zero interest in boxing out quicker faster players. After 20 games, it seems clear that he can't play the 4.

Wolves are actually in the 89th percentile when it comes to defense when Rudy and Kat are on the floor together. Now it is so hard to know if that is because Kat is playing good defense at the 4 or is it because Rudy fixes so many problem at that end of the floor. I just don't know if the wolves would be successful defensively at the 4 with lets say Capela was the Center, I have no way to statistically prove if Kat at the 4 lineups are successful because Kat is good at defending 4s or because Rudy solves so much.

I will say though the Wolves are only in the 57th percentile when it comes to defensive rebounding with Kat and Gobert on the floor together. That number should be significantly better with 2 huge centers on the court at the same time.

Now with Kat playing the 5 this year the wolves are in the 10th percentile when it comes to defense. Wolves get eaten alive when Kat is not playing the 4 defensively and is forced to play the 5. Kat is just a bad drop defender, its plane and simple, throughout his whole career with multiple coaches the Wolves have tried Kat with drop coverage and he continues to massively struggle at it. When it comes to rebounding the Ball with kat on the floor and Rudy off of it, Wolves are actually really bad at it in, they are in the 26th percentile in Kat center lineups rebounding the ball. (29% of oppenents misses end up in a offensive rebound.), Wolves are in the 17th percentile at defensive rebound when there is no Kat and just Rudy what is also terrible.

I am really struggling trying to pinpoint why the Wolves are so bad at defensive rebounding. I can make some conclusion on how bad our guards are at rebounding, like Ant/Gobert no Kat lineups are in the 8th percentile in rebounding, Ant/Kat and no Gobert are in the 32nd percentile in defensive rebounding. Lineups that have Dlo and Ant are in the 9th percenitle in defensive rebounding. Ant/Dlo and no Kat lineups are in the 0 percentile in defensive rebounding. Ant/Dlo and no Gobert lineups are also in the 0 percentile in defensive rebound.


I really really really really want to blame Dlo and Ant for their terrible boxing out is a main cause of terrible defensive rebounding team. Like this is more seeing numbers and making conclusions without distinct facts on why they struggle to rebound but lineups with Ant/Dlo and one of Gobert and Kat are both in the 0 percentile, that is so fucking bad. (For example approx. 38.5% of misses are rebounded when Ant/Dlo and only one big is on the floor together). Just for reference the wolves were in the 17th percentile in defensive rebounding last year when Dlo and Ant shared the floor together.

Sorry I just spewed stats, I was looking up stats as I was typing.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Jaden McDaniels isn't without blame in that regard either, kek. His length/size at the three -- along with the addition of Rudy Gobert -- was supposed to give the Wolves a boost in the rebounding department and that just hasn't materialized. He's basically a 6'10 wing that rebounds the ball like a much smaller point guard would. Actually, his numbers are just barely better than D'Angelo Russell's there, and actually worse in terms of defensive rebounding, which is unacceptable given his physical profile and role on the team.

That's not to say that McDaniels is THE issue because I don't think it's a problem that stems from just one or two players -- certainly not. It's a team-wide problem of boxing out and rebounding outside of their area. Everyone should be finding a body to clear out and chasing down loose balls, and that includes Gobert. Part of the issue could be that Minnesota's players simply expect Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns to wind up with the rebound so they don't pursue it as hard. It could be that Minnesota's abysmal perimeter shooting combined with their inconsistent perimeter defense are leading to a lot of long rebounds offensively, and less rebounds defensively due to opponents making their shots. No matter how you slice it, rebounding is a team stat. More importantly, it's an effort stat. They're all to blame, in my opinion. But I do think they can get better there without dramatic personnel changes.