Minnesota Decemberwolves: Next 14 Games

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Here are the Timberwolves' (11-12) next 14 games to end December with my projected/hopeful outcomes. The asterisk (*) denotes the second game of a back-to-back...

vs. Pacers: W
at Jazz: W
*at Portland: L
at Portland: W
at Los Angeles (Clippers): L
at Oklahoma City: W
vs. Chicago: W
*vs. Dallas: L
vs. Dallas: W
at Boston: L
at Miami: W
at New Orleans: W
at Milwaukee: L
*vs. Detroit: W

That's a potential 9-5 stretch, which would leave Minnesota at 20-17 (.541) entering 2023... I think that's somewhat realistic, and probably even a favorable outcome considering the circumstances without Karl-Anthony Towns. And by that time Towns should be close to getting back on the court.

Could this team just as easily end up going 5-9 over that stretch instead, and find themselves 16-21 entering the new year? Absolutely they could, and none of us would be shocked given what we've seen from this team to this point, but I see some smaller developments that give me reason for optimism even without Minnesota's presumed best player being available.

1. Anthony Edwards is finally getting more trips to the free throw line -- the result of a more concerted effort for him to attack the rim. He's averaging 8.8 free throw attempts over his last four games, which is a far cry from the 4.1 he averaged over the 19 games prior to that. It's a very small sample size, but that's a trend that we need to continue moving forward in order to get a more effective and more efficient Ant. His shot selection will likely never be optimal, but a newfound ability to draw fouls in bunches can (and is) help him -- and the team -- greatly.

2. D'Angelo Russell has been stacking up quality performances as he gets further and further away from his poor start to the season. Frankly, Minnesota needs him to be effective now more than ever with Towns being sidelined. He's averaging 17.2 PPG, 7.8 APG (2.3 TOV), 3.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.5 BPG over his last 10 games on 51.2/34.4/82.6 splits, or a 61.8 TS%. That also comes with a noticeable uptick in his effort/energy defensively, which Minnesota will need if they're going to rely more on their defense with Towns out the next handful of weeks. Who knows how long he can maintain this, and he needs to avoid the frigid cold spells he's fallen victim to before, but the team needs him to be good. Lately, he's been that.

3. Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell are looking more and more like the players we thought they could be, and this team bet a lot on internal improvement from those two coming into the season. McDaniels put up a stinker in his first game back from illness, but he had been performing at a really high level on both ends almost the entire month of November -- taking on difficult defensive responsibilities, making perimeter shots, and becoming a menace in transition. Nowell may be getting past his gunner mentality and forcing the issue offensively. The last handful of games look much more reminiscent to the player he had been in prior seasons by letting the game come to him and picking his spots to be ultra aggressive. He's also making his three-point shots (12-25 over his last four games) at a high clip after sinking into a bad shooting slump (3-23 over those seven games prior).

To wrap this up, Minnesota needs to handle their business through the rest of December. The schedule is manageable despite going through the rigors of two long road trips -- a five-game trip and a four-game trip. There are a handful of should-be wins that they can't afford to drop like we've already seen them do. They need to, at least, split the back-to-backs with Portland and Dallas as teams typically do. They have to compete and play well in the coin-flip games against Indiana, Chicago, Miami, and New Orleans. And if they were to steal a game against Los Angeles, Boston, or Milwaukee that would be gravy on the top. Those are the games I think they'll miss Towns the most. But they can't afford to do exactly the opposite and accumulate more losses that put them in a deep hole. This stretch is very important for their season outlook, I feel.

[Lipoli390]

Great analysis, Cam. These next 14 games will be critical. It's not an easy stretch, but it's a stretch of generally winnable games except for the games at Boston and Milwaukee (maybe also the one in New Orleans). Winning nine of those next 14 as you've suggested would put the Wolves in a decent position heading into the new year with KAT returning. Then we'll be back to the Gobert-KAT fit and hoping it works going forward. I'm not optimistic, but there's still a reasonable modicum of hope.

[FNG]

We need some breaks with KAT and Prince out, and we're catching one tonight. Haliburton is out, and Turner didn't play Monday and is questionable with a hammy. Indy is eminently beatable with those guys out (assuming Turner is out or at least limited), and that's why the line has moved to Wolves -5 ( I think I saw -1 a couple days ago).

On the other hand, Indy beat a resurgent Warriors team a couple days ago with these two guys out and nobody in the rotation taller than 6'9". They're a tough team to figure out, but I still think we win tonight if Turner can't go.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Two coin-flip games and two wins so far for Minnesota as they enter a pretty important month of basketball. Next up is a tough game at Portland tomorrow night. I didn't project them to win as I believe they'll have tired legs, but I do expect them to split with the Blazers, which I'd consider a fine outcome nonetheless. Let's keep it going!

[Monster]

Good thread Cam. I think the Wolves are talented enough to keeping winning some games. They need some guys to step up and that's happened to some extent already. If McLaughlin is out any more time they will need more solid play for other guys.

Wolves are now 1 game over .500 which is certainly a little disappointing but now staying around .500 without Towns is an accomplishment. They are 4 games out of first place and 6 from last place. It's a Wild West and the Wolves are going through some legit injury issues and other teams will have them as well.

Meanwhile the Lakers are struggling to be better than OKC in the win column After dropping 3 games in a row against good opponents.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Good thread Cam. I think the Wolves are talented enough to keeping winning some games. They need some guys to step up and that's happened to some extent already. If McLaughlin is out any more time they will need more solid play for other guys.

Wolves are now 1 game over .500 which is certainly a little disappointing but now staying around .500 without Towns is an accomplishment. They are 4 games out of first place and 6 from last place. It's a Wild West and the Wolves are going through some legit injury issues and other teams will have them as well.

Meanwhile the Lakers are struggling to be better than OKC in the win column After dropping 3 games in a row against good opponents.

Agreed, monster. I'm expecting this team to remain very competitive and win at least half of their games without Karl-Anthony Towns, if not slightly more. Simply, this roster is deep enough to continue winning. Kyle Anderson performs well enough on both ends of the floor and Rudy Gobert is still an All-NBA center. The frontcourt took a hit, but they're still better than a lot of teams in that regard.

The team is 3-1 without Towns as it stands currently. I would probably bet that if the Wolves have a good showing throughout December like I've illustrated above, which means the supporting elements are likely performing as expected or better, then this team when healthy will eventually go on a massive run that gets them close to where we thought they'd end up in the standings.

[thedoper]

After last night's loss Im not sure we get anywhere near that 9-5. I think 7-7 may even be a stretch. Would love to see some upsets along the way and an Any and Jaden rejuvenation but it could start getting really ugly here.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

After last night's loss Im not sure we get anywhere near that 9-5. I think 7-7 may even be a stretch. Would love to see some upsets along the way and an Any and Jaden rejuvenation but it could start getting really ugly here.

Yeah, even 7-7 would be difficult to project after the performance Minnesota displayed last night, especially from their talented-but-young duo of Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. There's no way they should have dropped both games to Portland even with Karl-Anthony Towns injured and the understanding that they're a tough matchup for us.

Still, I remain optimistic. Above all else, I believe that talent, especially premium talent, wins in the NBA and the Wolves have plenty. Who knows, maybe they bounce back against the Clippers and surprise us with a win.

[thedoper]

After last night's loss Im not sure we get anywhere near that 9-5. I think 7-7 may even be a stretch. Would love to see some upsets along the way and an Any and Jaden rejuvenation but it could start getting really ugly here.

Yeah, even 7-7 would be difficult to project after the performance Minnesota displayed last night, especially from their talented-but-young duo of Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. There's no way they should have dropped both games to Portland even with Karl-Anthony Towns injured and the understanding that they're a tough matchup for us.

Still, I remain optimistic. Above all else, I believe that talent, especially premium talent, wins in the NBA and the Wolves have plenty. Who knows, maybe they bounce back against the Clippers and surprise us with a win.

Yeah the Clipper game is big, its still early enough on this stretch of games to set them straight. But if they lose big to the Clippers I could see the wheels coming off. OKC and Chicago, and then much later in Detroit are the only games in that stretch that I have confidence, everything else is a tossup or almost a sure loss. It will be a good test to see how we do against real competition.

[FNG]

We're catching the Clippers at a bad time...7-2 in the 9 games Kawhi has played in. He's not scoring much, although he did break out last night against the Celtics with 25 points in 29 minutes. And the Clips are holding opponents to 11.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. I'm hoping they rest him tomorrow.