Physical Unavailability - Players to Avoid

[Lipoli390]

As we think about possible free agent or trade targets for the Wolves, I thought it would make sense to start a threat to discuss perhaps the most important attribute a player can have - namely the ability to suit up and play. No matter how talented or productive a player is on the court, it means nothing if the player is just watching the game from the bench in street cloths. Nearly all NBA players miss games because of injury or illness. Some suffer major injuries like torn ACLs that require surgery. But there are some players who miss a lot of games nearly every season with injuries - often different injuries and sometimes the same recurring injury. Former Vikings coach, Bud Grant, used to say "it's always the same guys in the training room...". His point was that certain players get injured a lot while others don't. It's probably genetic, but regardless of the cause, it's a real thing. And it's a critical factor for an NBA front office to consider when evaluating potential free agents or trade targets. I think it's particularly important for the Wolves given the unavailability issues associated with Beverley, who is a key rotation player.

Thinking about who the Wolves might pursue this offseason in free agency or via trades, there are some enticing targets who have the red physical unavailability flat planted firmly in their DNA. Here are a few:

1. Myles Turner. He's a guy who seems like a near perfect fit for the Wolves as a big (9'4 standing reach) rim protecting big man who can also contribute on the offensive end and who is the same age as KAT. Reliable NBA journalists have been reporting for some time that he's available on the trade market. But should the Wolves pursue and give up what it would likely take to get him (Beasley + another asset)? My answer is a reluctant but firm no. Turner is a classic case of a guy who can't stay healthy for one reason or another. He's played more than 70 games in only two of his seven seasons. His last three seasons are the most alarming as he has played only 62, 47 and 42 games in each of those seasons respectively. Even more alarming is the fact that his last injury, which kept him out most of this past season, was a foot injury requiring surgery. Serious foot injuries are troubling, especially in a 240 pound big man. If Myles were a free agent, I might be inclined to take a one or two year flier on him. But giving up significant assets to get him via trade is not a risk this franchise should or needs to take.

2. Jonathan Isaac. Another very tempting trade target who is probably gettable. But should we try to get him? Again, I say no. He's been in the League now for 3 seasons. He played 75 games in his second season, but he played in only 27 games his first season and 34 this past season. His most recent injury, that limited him to 34 games this past season, was a combination torn ACL and torn meniscus. That's a serious combo injury. And while modern ACL surgery has done wonders, I recall reading a study a couple of years ago that showed NBA player performance tends to permanently diminish following ACL surgery. And regardless of whether he can be the same player he was prior to the surgery, he wasn't exactly playing at a high level before his injury. In his second and only healthy season, he averaged only 9.6 points on 43% shooting and 5.5 rebounds. So he's still an upside prospect from college, not an accomplished NBA player like Myles Turner. His injury issues are what makes him gettable via trade. But that same injury propensity, coupled with a lack of any proven NBA track record, tells me the Wolves should stay away and look elsewhere.

3. Nurkic. I actually think Nurkic would be the perfect fit for the Wolves - even better than Myles Turner. Myles is the better rim protector, but Nurkic is the better rebounder and that's what the Wolves need most. And like Turner, Nurkic would add much-needed size/strength to the Wolves front court while also contributing on both ends of the court. But then there's this thing called physical unavailability, and unfortunately Nurkic joins Turner and Isaac in having that tag attached to him. He's played more than 70 games in only two of his eight seasons in the League. He played in 56 games this past season, which is more games than Myles Turner or Jonathan Isaac, but it's generally the same story. And like Turner, Nurkic's more recent issue is a foot problem. The difference between Nurkic and the other two bigs I listed above, is that Nurkic is an unrestricted free agent, which means in theory that the Wolves would not have to give up any valuable assets to get him. It would simply be a matter of how much the Wolves should pay him given his injury issues. So should the Wolves pursue signing him as a free agent this summer? If I were Gupta, I'd seriously consider pursuing him. I'd want the team's doctors to carefully review his medical records, but he might be worth the risk on a one or two year deal - maybe even longer if that's what it takes to get him for a reasonable annual salary under the MLE.

4. Ben Simmons: Whether Ben Simmons is gettable is a threshold question before getting to the theme of this post. My sense is that he is. I suspect that what transpired after he joined the Nets left a bad taste in the mouths of their front office, coaches and teammates. In fact, that's what was widely reported. The Nets are a pretty dysfunctional organization as it is anyway with head-case Kyrie, often-injured Kevin Durant and no meaningful salary flexibility to work with. They finished 7th in the East and were knocked out in the first round. The uncertainty surrounding Ben Simmons, both physically and mentally, coupled with the size and remaining length of his contract, should motivate the Nets to consider moving him. For all those reasons, I believe the Nets might be open to swapping him for DLO and perhaps another asset to give them the best chance of succeeding next season along with some salary flexibility after next season to help re-tool. The question for this thread is whether Simmons would be worth the risk to the Wolves given his physical and mental health issues. My view is that there are no significant mental health issues. I think that was a ploy to get paid. But the physical issues are real. He's played 4 seasons (not counting last season since he was hold out). He played 81 and 78 games his first two season. But he played only 57 and 58 games respectively in his last two seasons, due to his lower back nerve impingement issue, which has been an ongoing thing with him for years, and a kneecap dislocation. He had surgery to remove debris from his knee a couple years ago and just had surgery to fix his lower back issue. If the back surgery has a good long-term prognosis, then I don't consider him as having a huge unavailability risk. But that's a big if. So should the Wolves explore swapping DLO and a maybe a second-round pick or two for Simmons this summer? My answer is yes, but my big caveat is the medical report on his back surgery. Whether the Nets would swap him for DLO and a couple 2nd round picks is certainly up for debate. I think they would. If so, then I'd be willing to take the risk on him because of all the the things he brings to the table. He's a dynamic playmaker, which I believe would fit well with our dynamic scorers, Edwards and KAT. He's also a great defender to further improve our mediocre defense. Pairing him with Edwards as our starting backcourt duo would be exciting and it would allow the Wolves to bring Beverley off the bench to fortify the defense and savvy of our second unit. Simmons is also perhaps the best rebounding PG in the League, which would allow us to address our poor rebounding at the PG position in addition to addressing it by signing a rebounding big with size to pair with KAT up front.

So if I were Gupta, I'd look at possibly signing Nurkic as a free agent using the MLE and/or trading DLO and a 2nd-round pick or two for Simmons. At the same time, I would proceed cautiously with both and I wouldn't count on getting either one. I still think the most realistic and sensible path is to keep DLO, sign a free agent big like Hartenstein or Jalen Smith using the BAE or part of the MLE and bring back Prince at around $9M a year. We'll see what happens.

[Monster]

Interesting thread Lip. Sometimes guys break out of that injury thing. I would call that more of an exception than the rule though.

Lip you didn't mention Simmons missing his rookie year with a foot injury.

You don't believe that there are any significant mental Heath issues and that might be true although right now I would not completely dismiss it. This is out of the scope of your thread but I do think there might be some legit attitude or questions about Simmons the person to consider. I'm not worried about him getting into legal problems or single handle destroying a locker room or something but there is enough for me to worry about adding him to the mix here. Is he going to be upset if he isn't used enough because Towns and Edwards are simply better offensive players? What if he gets benched for a young supposedly lesser player? I could absolutely see that happening at some point.

Would the Nets consider moving him for an expiring contract? If so yeah we should look into it but I'll be surprised if Simmons goes for expiring contract and a outside the lottery 1st round pick or something. If the price was THAT low then idk I think it would be worth taking a chance. I'll also mention that Philly had a pretty good season without Simmons and if the Nets are that willing to dump him...it would make me a little wary. I'm not suggesting Simmons sucks or is a cancer but man there are a lot of questions abut a guy you will be committing over 77 million after next season. Of course when I look at it as just 2 seasons after Russell would expire...it sounds a bit better. The thing is though what other options would not be available to the Wolves because Simmons is on the payroll. In X amount of months after a Simmons trade will we be having similar conversations about Ben Simmons on the roster as we did about Wiggins and Russell?

Sorry I may have derailed your thread here a bit let's get back to injuries!!!

The Wolves have their own injury guys in Beverly, Prince and Russell. Maybe Prince can be a guy that just misses a few games a year with various surgeries behind him and smaller workload. I have some optimism about that but it's another reason as much as I do want him back I don't want to go too high on his salary.

I spent a bit of time reading about Turner and I think he was actually pretty much out for the season despite the Pacers season being over. For Nurkic I think if games would have mattered he would have played more games the 2nd half of the season. He still has a lengthy injury history and is a legit center sized big man and so that's a big concern. I'd be surprised if the Blazers don't bring him back for a reasonable deal. They will likely be looking to sign some sort of backup plan for cheap.

[WildWolf2813]

I don't think Ben Simmons the player as we want him to be exists anymore.

Simmons inevitably will cost Marks his job because he has to deal with so much before having to fix a severely flawed offensive game.

[Monster]

I don't think Ben Simmons the player as we want him to be exists anymore.

Simmons inevitably will cost Marks his job because he has to deal with so much before having to fix a severely flawed offensive game.

Kyrie is another guy that struggles with availability. What will the Nets do with him?

The thing about Marks is that he is such a good GM and has been able to continue to find worthwhile talent outside the lottery and in other ways he might be able to figure something out to keep things afloat. They have a lot of outgoing draft picks for a number of years though and will be paying a massive amount of Lux tax for at least a couple more years.

[WildWolf2813]

I don't think Ben Simmons the player as we want him to be exists anymore.

Simmons inevitably will cost Marks his job because he has to deal with so much before having to fix a severely flawed offensive game.

Kyrie is another guy that struggles with availability. What will the Nets do with him?

The thing about Marks is that he is such a good GM and has been able to continue to find worthwhile talent outside the lottery and in other ways he might be able to figure something out to keep things afloat. They have a lot of outgoing draft picks for a number of years though and will be paying a massive amount of Lux tax for at least a couple more years.

Keep him, because in spite of it all, they need him.

[KG4Ever]

As we think about possible free agent or trade targets for the Wolves, I thought it would make sense to start a threat to discuss perhaps the most important attribute a player can have - namely the ability to suit up and play. No matter how talented or productive a player is on the court, it means nothing if the player is just watching the game from the bench in street cloths. Nearly all NBA players miss games because of injury or illness. Some suffer major injuries like torn ACLs that require surgery. But there are some players who miss a lot of games nearly every season with injuries - often different injuries and sometimes the same recurring injury. Former Vikings coach, Bud Grant, used to say "it's always the same guys in the training room...". His point was that certain players get injured a lot while others don't. It's probably genetic, but regardless of the cause, it's a real thing. And it's a critical factor for an NBA front office to consider when evaluating potential free agents or trade targets. I think it's particularly important for the Wolves given the unavailability issues associated with Beverley, who is a key rotation player.

Thinking about who the Wolves might pursue this offseason in free agency or via trades, there are some enticing targets who have the red physical unavailability flat planted firmly in their DNA. Here are a few:

1. Myles Turner. He's a guy who seems like a near perfect fit for the Wolves as a big (9'4 standing reach) rim protecting big man who can also contribute on the offensive end and who is the same age as KAT. Reliable NBA journalists have been reporting for some time that he's available on the trade market. But should the Wolves pursue and give up what it would likely take to get him (Beasley + another asset)? My answer is a reluctant but firm no. Turner is a classic case of a guy who can't stay healthy for one reason or another. He's played more than 70 games in only two of his seven seasons. His last three seasons are the most alarming as he has played only 62, 47 and 42 games in each of those seasons respectively. Even more alarming is the fact that his last injury, which kept him out most of this past season, was a foot injury requiring surgery. Serious foot injuries are troubling, especially in a 240 pound big man. If Myles were a free agent, I might be inclined to take a one or two year flier on him. But giving up significant assets to get him via trade is not a risk this franchise should or needs to take.

2. Jonathan Isaac. Another very tempting trade target who is probably gettable. But should we try to get him? Again, I say no. He's been in the League now for 3 seasons. He played 75 games in his second season, but he played in only 27 games his first season and 34 this past season. His most recent injury, that limited him to 34 games this past season, was a combination torn ACL and torn meniscus. That's a serious combo injury. And while modern ACL surgery has done wonders, I recall reading a study a couple of years ago that showed NBA player performance tends to permanently diminish following ACL surgery. And regardless of whether he can be the same player he was prior to the surgery, he wasn't exactly playing at a high level before his injury. In his second and only healthy season, he averaged only 9.6 points on 43% shooting and 5.5 rebounds. So he's still an upside prospect from college, not an accomplished NBA player like Myles Turner. His injury issues are what makes him gettable via trade. But that same injury propensity, coupled with a lack of any proven NBA track record, tells me the Wolves should stay away and look elsewhere.

3. Nurkic. I actually think Nurkic would be the perfect fit for the Wolves - even better than Myles Turner. Myles is the better rim protector, but Nurkic is the better rebounder and that's what the Wolves need most. And like Turner, Nurkic would add much-needed size/strength to the Wolves front court while also contributing on both ends of the court. But then there's this thing called physical unavailability, and unfortunately Nurkic joins Turner and Isaac in having that tag attached to him. He's played more than 70 games in only two of his eight seasons in the League. He played in 56 games this past season, which is more games than Myles Turner or Jonathan Isaac, but it's generally the same story. And like Turner, Nurkic's more recent issue is a foot problem. The difference between Nurkic and the other two bigs I listed above, is that Nurkic is an unrestricted free agent, which means in theory that the Wolves would not have to give up any valuable assets to get him. It would simply be a matter of how much the Wolves should pay him given his injury issues. So should the Wolves pursue signing him as a free agent this summer? If I were Gupta, I'd seriously consider pursuing him. I'd want the team's doctors to carefully review his medical records, but he might be worth the risk on a one or two year deal - maybe even longer if that's what it takes to get him for a reasonable annual salary under the MLE.

4. Ben Simmons: Whether Ben Simmons is gettable is a threshold question before getting to the theme of this post. My sense is that he is. I suspect that what transpired after he joined the Nets left a bad taste in the mouths of their front office, coaches and teammates. In fact, that's what was widely reported. The Nets are a pretty dysfunctional organization as it is anyway with head-case Kyrie, often-injured Kevin Durant and no meaningful salary flexibility to work with. They finished 7th in the East and were knocked out in the first round. The uncertainty surrounding Ben Simmons, both physically and mentally, coupled with the size and remaining length of his contract, should motivate the Nets to consider moving him. For all those reasons, I believe the Nets might be open to swapping him for DLO and perhaps another asset to give them the best chance of succeeding next season along with some salary flexibility after next season to help re-tool. The question for this thread is whether Simmons would be worth the risk to the Wolves given his physical and mental health issues. My view is that there are no significant mental health issues. I think that was a ploy to get paid. But the physical issues are real. He's played 4 seasons (not counting last season since he was hold out). He played 81 and 78 games his first two season. But he played only 57 and 58 games respectively in his last two seasons, due to his lower back nerve impingement issue, which has been an ongoing thing with him for years, and a kneecap dislocation. He had surgery to remove debris from his knee a couple years ago and just had surgery to fix his lower back issue. If the back surgery has a good long-term prognosis, then I don't consider him as having a huge unavailability risk. But that's a big if. So should the Wolves explore swapping DLO and a maybe a second-round pick or two for Simmons this summer? My answer is yes, but my big caveat is the medical report on his back surgery. Whether the Nets would swap him for DLO and a couple 2nd round picks is certainly up for debate. I think they would. If so, then I'd be willing to take the risk on him because of all the the things he brings to the table. He's a dynamic playmaker, which I believe would fit well with our dynamic scorers, Edwards and KAT. He's also a great defender to further improve our mediocre defense. Pairing him with Edwards as our starting backcourt duo would be exciting and it would allow the Wolves to bring Beverley off the bench to fortify the defense and savvy of our second unit. Simmons is also perhaps the best rebounding PG in the League, which would allow us to address our poor rebounding at the PG position in addition to addressing it by signing a rebounding big with size to pair with KAT up front.

So if I were Gupta, I'd look at possibly signing Nurkic as a free agent using the MLE and/or trading DLO and a 2nd-round pick or two for Simmons. At the same time, I would proceed cautiously with both and I wouldn't count on getting either one. I still think the most realistic and sensible path is to keep DLO, sign a free agent big like Hartenstein or Jalen Smith using the BAE or part of the MLE and bring back Prince at around $9M a year. We'll see what happens.

I think I pretty much agree with your assessments on all four guys. Turner will be a free agent in a year, and we could have the capspace to sign him outright, so I wouldn't consider giving up anything other than a second rounder, Naz or Bolmaro. In a year, we'll have a better gauge of his health. I think he may have sat more games this year as Indiana was in full tank mode, but a foot surgery is a concern. I'd like to get an injury discount or structure the contract to take some of the risk out as in the Isaac contract. Isaac is just too injury prone averaging only 27 games over 5 years and he gets paid alot. No for now on him, but if ever becomes a free agent willing to come on a cheap one year deal to resurrect his career, sign me up. I am pretty high on Nurkic and like the fit a lot as he is an elite rebounder and passer for a big. He's among my top 3 bigs to target in free agency, and only because of his health issues, age and perceived cost, would Hartenstein or Jalen Smith be preferred. But Nurkic is more of a sure thing (if he's healthy) and so I would absolutely love it for us to get Nurkic if we can get him on a reasonable deal. Ben Simmons is the riskiest idea, but could also be the one with the biggest payoff. To assume his long term deal, I'd really want to get the opinions of several team doctors that his back and knee are structurally sound and I'd also want to wait for the health issues to resolve and him be cleared to play. Perhaps, Ben would desire to play outside the bright lights of New York and come to Minnesota and not sure, if his contract could be modified, to include some injury protection, with Ben's consent, in order to entice the Wolves to make a deal.

As far as Taurean Prince, I'm not crazy about bringing him back at $9M a year. Maybe, I'd be fine with that amount if its only a one year deal, but I don't want to tie up that much money in a backup, who hasn't been that impactful, ahead of 2023 where the Wolves could be poised to make a free agent splash. Ideally, we could sign him for a bit less and get a team option.

[Lipoli390]

KG - I agree with your thoughts on Simmons. As you indicated, he would be the proverbial high risk/high reward target and I agree he might prefer Minnesota to the bright lights and nastiness of the east coast. After going back and reading through a number of past articles, it seems clear that the Nets organization folks, top to bottom, are unhappy with Simmons. I do think they'd be interested in swapping him for DLO, who they might view as more reliable next season and who has an expiring contract. I don't think we could restructure his contract under the CBA. So we'd be assuming the risks that come with Simmons and has expensive long term contract. But that's precisely why the Nets might jump at the chance to swap him for DLO.

As for Prince, I'd definitely like to sign him for less than $9M per year. That might be possible given Taurean's injury propensity and lack of productivity. Hard to know. He's someone I'd like to bring back on a reasonable deal, but I don't think bringing him back is critical.

[Monster]

KG - I agree with your thoughts on Simmons. As you indicated, he would be the proverbial high risk/high reward target and I agree he might prefer Minnesota to the bright lights and nastiness of the east coast. After going back and reading through a number of past articles, it seems clear that the Nets organization folks, top to bottom, are unhappy with Simmons. I do think they'd be interested in swapping him for DLO, who they might view as more reliable next season and who has an expiring contract. I don't think we could restructure his contract under the CBA. So we'd be assuming the risks that come with Simmons and has expensive long term contract. But that's precisely why the Nets might jump at the chance to swap him for DLO.

As for Prince, I'd definitely like to sign him for less than $9M per year. That might be possible given Taurean's injury propensity and lack of productivity. Hard to know. He's someone I'd like to bring back on a reasonable deal, but I don't think bringing him back is critical.

Just to clarify the only way you can modify an NBA guaranteed contract is adding years and new money to it via an extension. Whatever contract Simmons has we are stuck with it. The only way out would be if he absolutely couldn't play like what happened with Pek.