The 76ers' plan to win (yes, really)

[bleedspeed]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12318808/the-philadelphia-76ers-radical-guide-winning

Interesting read. Plan to win via better then average defense. Worth a look.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I don't have a problem with stats-driven basketball, which is part of what Hinkie, this protege of Morey, is doing. I appreciate the fact that these guys are trying to bring an intellectual approach to the game (I also happen to love Robert Caro). But they definitely seem overconfident. And humility is the real mark of intelligence.

But the big issue to me, is that it's still cheating the spirit of the game to intentionally put together such an atrocious team to tank for higher draft picks. Not just at the end of a season but for multiple years now! I think this article is giving Hinkie a chance to distract from what's obviously going on. He may believe in 3 point shooting because of analytics, but why not have ANY decent shooters? And he may give lip service to defense, but he's not signing good defenders so much as just signing bad players with long overhead reach to hope that they get the next Greek Freak. I'm sure he believes those things, but right now he's not doing them because HE WANTS TO LOSE.

I'm skeptical whether it will even work, but even if not (or maybe especially so), it just strikes me as unsportsmanlike. It's cheating the fans, it's cheating the halfway decent players they do have on their roster, it's cheating the other teams who essentially have to play a D League team, it's cheating the decent veteran players out there who would like to still play for an NBA team but have to watch the Sixers intentionally sign bad or long-shot players instead so that they intentionally lose, it's cheating the legitimately bad teams from getting higher draft picks, it's just plain cheating if you ask me. Really unsportsmanlike. It's not surprising that all these guys are stats and econ number crunchers, because this kind of garbage belongs in investment banking, not in sports.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Drew, You do realize there are two teams with worse records than the Sixers, including one you should be pretty familiar with, don't you? Or that they sport the 12th ranked defense in the NBA? That doesn't happen just because they have a few guys with long arms. It takes an enormous amount of effort by the players and great coaching by Brown and his staff to be an upper half League defense, especially with so much youth. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and embarrassingly, 2-0 against us this season.

So while I agree with your larger point about the Sixers purposely putting together a multi-year strategy that strips the team down to the studs and makes minimal salary outlays - let's call it the "long tank" - they are certainly not being coached like a team that is tanking. Brown has done a great job.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Yeah, Brown has done well, and I don't hold it against the players. And yes, of course we're terrible, but at least we're not TRYING to be terrible! : ) But Hinkie's approach in the front office just seems unsportsmanlike to me. The team seems to be winning right now in spite of him more than because of him. I know he eventually wants to win, but I think this attitude of wanting to lose for higher draft picks is turning into a kind of cancer on the league. I sense it with Wolves fans too from time to time (and I've even felt it myself), even though our front office hasn't turned it into an explicit science over the long term.

[TheFuture]

He either has one hell of a plan thought out or is straight delusional. Trying to win and trading your 2nd year pg, who I believe is a very good player, doesn't go together.

He should have targeted Russell to pair with MCW.
MCW/Russell/McDaniels/Noel/Embiid would have been a hell of a young team.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

He either has one hell of a plan thought out or is straight delusional. Trying to win and trading your 2nd year pg, who I believe is a very good player, doesn't go together.

He should have targeted Russell to pair with MCW.
MCW/Russell/McDaniels/Noel/Embiid would have been a hell of a young team.

His foolishness is Jason Kidd's gain. MCW wasn't a perfect player. He has flaws as a shooter. He does other things so well though. Is they were able to get a Russell then they wouldn't need MCW to shoot as much.

You think at some point you would want to start trying to win instead of piling draft picks and trading them away after a year and a half.

[Lipoli390]

I have no problem with what Hinkie is doing. And I'm not going to join the national hysterics over tanking. Hinkie is implementing a long term strategy, amassing assets intended to ultimately build a championship team. He's not "trying to lose." If that were the case, he'd fire his current head coach who is doing a great job getting the players to overachieve. Losing is simply the natural consequence of Hinkie's long-term strategy. It's a risky strategy because it depends heavily on future draft picks -- which are inherently unpredictable. But it's also a reasonable strategy. In a nutshell, it's a high risk/high reward strategy. If it succeeds, the Sixers will eventually become an elite team in 5 years and remain so for a long time. If not, Hinkie will be fired in 5 years.

[TheGrey08]

I have no problem with what Hinkie is doing. And I'm not going to join the national hysterics over tanking. Hinkie is implementing a long term strategy, amassing assets intended to ultimately build a championship team. He's not "trying to lose." If that were the case, he'd fire his current head coach who is doing a great job getting the players to overachieve. Losing is simply the natural consequence of Hinkie's long-term strategy. It's a risky strategy because it depends heavily on future draft picks -- which are inherently unpredictable. But it's also a reasonable strategy. In a nutshell, it's a high risk/high reward strategy. If it succeeds, the Sixers will eventually become an elite team in 5 years and remain so for a long time. If not, Hinkie will be fired in 5 years.

Trading MCW doesn't really fit though. That's what doesn't make sense for me.

[TheFuture]

I have no problem with what Hinkie is doing. And I'm not going to join the national hysterics over tanking. Hinkie is implementing a long term strategy, amassing assets intended to ultimately build a championship team. He's not "trying to lose." If that were the case, he'd fire his current head coach who is doing a great job getting the players to overachieve. Losing is simply the natural consequence of Hinkie's long-term strategy. It's a risky strategy because it depends heavily on future draft picks -- which are inherently unpredictable. But it's also a reasonable strategy. In a nutshell, it's a high risk/high reward strategy. If it succeeds, the Sixers will eventually become an elite team in 5 years and remain so for a long time. If not, Hinkie will be fired in 5 years.

That article was an extremely good read and provided great insight on hinkies long term plan. I do like his view and respect that he has put the time/math into it to come out with a formula/plan. But math is only applicable to a point. There are many life variables that I believe you cannot quantify fully. I think at some point you are getting to cute with your idea like I believe hinkie has. KJ and MCW being dealt is that reason for me. Those players fit his formula, yet he dealt them for more future picks. A perfectionist like hinkie is never fully satisfied with an outcome. That's why I am skeptical that he will achieve what he States he can in 5 years.

[Volans19]

I have no problem with what Hinkie is doing. And I'm not going to join the national hysterics over tanking. Hinkie is implementing a long term strategy, amassing assets intended to ultimately build a championship team. He's not "trying to lose." If that were the case, he'd fire his current head coach who is doing a great job getting the players to overachieve. Losing is simply the natural consequence of Hinkie's long-term strategy. It's a risky strategy because it depends heavily on future draft picks -- which are inherently unpredictable. But it's also a reasonable strategy. In a nutshell, it's a high risk/high reward strategy. If it succeeds, the Sixers will eventually become an elite team in 5 years and remain so for a long time. If not, Hinkie will be fired in 5 years.

Trading MCW doesn't really fit though. That's what doesn't make sense for me.

I don't really have a problem with the MCW trade, getting that Lakers top-5 protected pick is extremely valuable and right now the Lakers are slotted to land with the 6th pick. MCW is a nice player and I think he will be a Rubio-esque figure in MIL but I don't think the fit in Philly was the best. If the Sixers are able to get the 6th pick from the Lakers they could theoretically grab Muiday or Russel at 3 and the Stanley Johnson at 6, which would be a pretty darn good draft in my eyes

The move I have a problem with is the KJ McDaniels trade. A second round pick for a player who likely to land on the All Rookie First or Second team is ridiculous. So what if you have to spend real money to keep him on the roster? He is young and shown that he can be a difference maker, if you can't afford to sign a sophomore second round pick when you perpetually have boat-loads of cap space than there is an issue.