Wolves Lottery Position Prediction

[Lipoli390]

As we wait for KG's retun to Target center as a T-Wolf tonight, I've been thinking about the likelihood this team will get on a major roll the rest of the way this season. We've already been winning at a .500 clip since the return of Ricky, Kevin Martin and Pek. KG's arrival makes us even better going forward. I want to win, but winning the rest of this season has a downside in that it will hurt our draft lottery position.

As we sit here today, we have the third worst record just 2 games behind the Lakers. Given how bad the Lakers are without Kobe the rest of the season, there can be no doubt we will pass then in the standings. So it's clear the Wolves' lottery position will be no better than 4th. But looking ahead, I see the Wolves slipping to the 5th or 6th position and possibly the 7th. Denver has 20 wins and they're in complete disarray. So I see us passing the Nuggets in the standings. Some other teams we could pass include the Kings, Jazz, Magic and Celtics. Obviously we won't pass all or even most of these teams. But I can see us passing one or two of them.

So brace yourself for a 5th, 6th or 7th pick this summer.

[bleedspeed]

5th, 6th, or 7th sounds about perfect to move up from in the lottery.

[Papalrep]

Analysis-- Willie, not Karl if Flip goes for length.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

As we wait for KG's retun to Target center as a T-Wolf tonight, I've been thinking about the likelihood this team will get on a major roll the rest of the way this season. We've already been winning at a .500 clip since the return of Ricky, Kevin Martin and Pek. KG's arrival makes us even better going forward. I want to win, but winning the rest of this season has a downside in that it will hurt our draft lottery position.

As we sit here today, we have the third worst record just 2 games behind the Lakers. Given how bad the Lakers are without Kobe the rest of the season, there can be no doubt we will pass then in the standings. So it's clear the Wolves' lottery position will be no better than 4th. But looking ahead, I see the Wolves slipping to the 5th or 6th position and possibly the 7th. Denver has 20 wins and they're in complete disarray. So I see us passing the Nuggets in the standings. Some other teams we could pass include the Kings, Jazz, Magic and Celtics. Obviously we won't pass all or even most of these teams. But I can see us passing one or two of them.

So brace yourself for a 5th, 6th or 7th pick this summer.

Lip, take a look at my projected wins thread. I agree with you that we are clearly going to finish ahead of LA, Philly and the Knicks, but I also see a huge cushion between us and the next tier of teams that you cite. I projected the Wolves to win 22 games (and that includes a win tonight against the Wiz), Orlando 26 and the Nuggets 27 (with the Jazz and Celtics winning even more games...not going to chart them unless they completely collapse). While I agree that the Nuggets are in disarray, they have a ridiculously easy schedule the rest of the way...8 games against teams like the Lakers, sixers, knicks, Utah and the Nets...and I can't see us catching them. Same with the other four teams. Take ten minutes and chart out the rest of the season for the teams we are concerned about catching, and I think you will come to the same conclusion. I'll continue to update my thread when upsets happen, but right now, we have a very comfortable cushion.

On the other hand, if the Wolves get ridiculously hot and win over 50% of their games against a brutally tough schedule, there will be so much optimism about this club that I don't think I would mind the downside of a 5th or worse pick. I don't see that happening though. We're still missing some key guys, and we have a really tough schedule the rest of the way. Actually, I see the rest of the year being the best of both worlds...the Wolves playing well enough to make the fan base optimistic, but not winning enough games to move out of the 4 hole.

Anyway, you're missing the real point here. Apparently you are choosing to completely dismiss Cool's guarantee that the Wolves win the lottery this year. You know, there's a different feeling in the air coming off of All-Star weekend and the KG press conference, and perhaps the stars are finally aligning for this hapless, snakebit franchise. Cool may be right...

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don't know how much better the Wolves are this season with Garnett. Obviously, his minutes will be limited. And he'll miss games. So it is less about Garnett > Thad Young and more about your thoughts on Payne/Bennett and Thad Young.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think Abe's question is directed toward Lipoli, but I'll weigh in with my thoughts. For me, this IS about KG vs. Thad. The Wolves have been a poor rebounding, and terrible, defensive team this year, and that has much to do with their wretched record (albeit not as much as the absence of Rubio, although his injury has a lot to do with our poor defense). While the new PF triad won't be able to replace Thad's PPG, I look for a marked improvement in the more vital areas of defense and rebounding, and that's all about KG vs Thad. The StarTrib had a chart today about KG's reduced production over the years...to be expected. But what stood out for me is that his rebounds per minute with Brooklyn are actually the best of his career, and as discussed here before, more than double Thad's rate. While we will miss AB's rebounding while he is out, I still think we are a much improved rebounding team after the KG trade. The Wizards are the 4th best rebounding team in the league, so it will be interesting to see how the Wolves rebound tonight.

But more important should be the improvement on defense. Thad had a Corey Brewer like ability to create steals, but it came at a cost...more often than not I was pulling my hair out watching Thad on defense. The Wolves have been terrible PnR defenders, but the replacement of Thad/AB with KG/Payne has to be a huge improvement. In addition, I was heartened by the report from yesterday's practice that not only did KG get on Pek for jogging back on defense, he also consistently was the 1st guy back on D himself...pretty impressive for a 38 year old guy. The wolves will be tested tonight against John Wall, who pushes the pace more than almost any other PG. If KG can hepl this team both on the PnR and getting back on defense, that will be a huge improvement for this club.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think Abe's question is directed toward Lipoli, but I'll weigh in with my thoughts. For me, this IS about KG vs. Thad. The Wolves have been a poor rebounding, and terrible, defensive team this year, and that has much to do with their wretched record (albeit not as much as the absence of Rubio, although his injury has a lot to do with our poor defense). While the new PF triad won't be able to replace Thad's PPG, I look for a marked improvement in the more vital areas of defense and rebounding, and that's all about KG vs Thad. The StarTrib had a chart today about KG's reduced production over the years...to be expected. But what stood out for me is that his rebounds per minute with Brooklyn are actually the best of his career, and as discussed here before, more than double Thad's rate. While we will miss AB's rebounding while he is out, I still think we are a much improved rebounding team after the KG trade. The Wizards are the 4th best rebounding team in the league, so it will be interesting to see how the Wolves rebound tonight.

But more important should be the improvement on defense. Thad had a Corey Brewer like ability to create steals, but it came at a cost...more often than not I was pulling my hair out watching Thad on defense. The Wolves have been terrible PnR defenders, but the replacement of Thad/AB with KG/Payne has to be a huge improvement. In addition, I was heartened by the report from yesterday's practice that not only did KG get on Pek for jogging back on defense, he also consistently was the 1st guy back on D himself...pretty impressive for a 38 year old guy. The wolves will be tested tonight against John Wall, who pushes the pace more than almost any other PG. If KG can hepl this team both on the PnR and getting back on defense, that will be a huge improvement for this club.

My point is that Garnett will probably be playing less than 40% of the available minutes. Garnett for 34 mpg vs. Thad Young for 34 mpg is one thing...

But does anybody expect that to happen? I think Payne/Bennett will be playing the majority of the time and I don't see them playing better than Young was playing in the past month. (Although I'm cool with giving them the minutes over Thad to see if there's anything there...)

[Coolbreeze44]

A good point made by LST is winning games is a good sign for us at this point. I think we will win the lottery after finishing with the 4th most balls. We don't want to be terrible from here on in and lose the illusion that we are actually on the right path. Some success at the end of this year is a great thing in my opinion. Plus we will get the #1 pick anyway.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

Hopefully 3, probably 6.

[Volans19]

I say we land at 4. What with do with that pick in terms of trading down or addressing a need is anyone's guess, but I think we will end up with Russell assuming the Sixers draft best player available and the Knicks or Lakers see a star in Muiday