The Love Pre-Game

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I don't know, guys. I can come up with a list of Kahn mistakes/problems a mile long, and not making Ricky a better shooter wouldn't be on there. Professional athletes making millions have to take responsibility for improving their games, and this one is entirely on Ricky. His quote about his surprise that the better arc on his jump shot makes it go in more frequently made me spit out my coffee this morning. Eureka, Ricky has found the long-hidden secret to successful jump shooting! Come on, Ricky...I love you as a player, but you needed to do something about your broken jump shot long ago. Most of us on this board recognized the arc and release issues with his jumper and what he needed to do to fix it, but we're going to give Ricky a pass and blame this on Wolves' management? I don't get it. Players need to take personal responsibility, and thank goodness Ricky has finally done it...albeit several years later than he should have.

[bleedspeed]

LST - Leave spanish jesus alone.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LOL, bleedspeed...I gotta admit it doesn't feel good defending David Kahn and criticizing my favorite player!

[AbeVigodaLive]

LOL, bleedspeed...I gotta admit it doesn't feel good defending David Kahn and criticizing my favorite player!

I'm more willing to blame JJ Barea and Thad Young than Ricky Rubio on this issue.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

One thing to note. Ricky just has to go from a terrible shooter to an average one to make that much more of an impact. We are talking about a sub 40% shooter just needing to get to around 45% to be a great guard in this league. He doesn't have to become a sniper. He just needs an 18 footer to keep the defense honest. He's already shown some improvement in the two areas keeping him from being an all-star, the ability to hit a jump shot somewhat consistently and a more aggressive scorers mentality to get him up to around 15 PPG. If he can keep up those two areas of his game and continue to defend and dish out assists the way he can then he will be an all-star caliber player.

Agreed. He just needs to keep teams honest.

But, I think some might be underestimating how easy it can be done. Can you find many guys in NBA history who went 3 years (or even 2 years) as a really lousy shooter (sub 40%) before turning it around and shooting around 45%?

7% is a big jump.



[note: i know steve nash had a dreadful season shooting early in his career. but it was only one season off the bench and obviously an anomaly considering shooting was one of his strengths back to his college days.]

Goran Dragic is a guy that comes to mind as a real late-bloomer when it comes to improving his shooting efficiency, although he did start out better than Rubio.

First, he came into the league as a 22 year old with years of playing professionally in Europe under his belt. Through his first five seasons in the NBA, he posted solid efficiency numbers, but nothing real special. Then suddenly, beginning last year, he's shooting 50%+ from the field with a really nice TS%.

What's unique about Dragic is that he's always been a decent 3-point shooter, but what's really ticked up is his 2-point shooting percentage. Usually when you see guys suddenly become a lot more efficient, it's because they have honed their catch-and-shoot 3-pointer and tilt their shot distribution to beyond the arc. Not in Goran's case though. What he's done is increased both his attempts AND efficiency at the rim.

Now I doubt Ricky will ever be as good as Goran in terms of shooting and finishing, but he does serve as a good example of someone in the same position that has managed to improve his efficiency quite significantly well into his 20s.

[Coolbreeze44]

If Ricky can just get to 42% overall, I'd be ecstatic. He would be one of the better point guards in the league with that number. 45% would be great, but I don't see that happening and don't think it needs to.

[MikkeMan]

But, I think some might be underestimating how easy it can be done. Can you find many guys in NBA history who went 3 years (or even 2 years) as a really lousy shooter (sub 40%) before turning it around and shooting around 45%?

7% is a big jump.

Chauncey Billups had FG% of 37.4, 38.6 and 33.7 in his three first seasons. Later when he was playing in Detroit he had season of 44.2 and 44.8 FG%.

But I don't really like to compare FG% since it is quite meaningless stat. eFG% or TS% are much more important stats when we compare scoring efficiency.

Because Billups was immediately quite good three point shooter and had good ability to draw fouls, he didn't have that bad numbers in eFG% and TS%. Still he improved in eFG% from around 45% to around 52% and in TS% he improved from around 52% to 60% which was already elite level.

Other notable players that have improved a lot in shooting after three first years are:

Mookie Blaylock had eFG% of 38.7, 42.3 and 43.8 in his first three seasons. Later in his best seasons he had it around 51%. His TS% went from 41.6, 45.5 and 46.5 to around 53%. Mookie did his improvement mainly by adding 3-point shot and becoming really high volume 3-point shooter.

Jason Kidd had TS% of 47.1, 46.8 and 49.8 in his first three seasons. In his prime he had couple of seasons with TS% around 52% and when he was past his prime and playing 2nd time for Dallas he had even season with TS% of 57.7. (that number was got by shooting mainly treys)

Gary Payton had basically just two seasons with quite bad shooting numbers but he was older than Ricky when he entered to league and played more games in those two seasons than Ricky has played in his first three seasons.

Payton had eFG% of 45.1 and 45.3 in his first two seasons and later had several years with eFG% around 52%. In TS% he had quite similar improvement, he improved from 47.6 and 47.8 to around 54%. Same time his amount of attempts increased so that he was even one of the scoring leaders after having two seasons with starter minutes and scoring average less than 10 pts/game. Payton also went from having no 3-point shot at all (shot around 15% with really small amount of attempts) to lead the whole league in made 3-pointers.

And then there is Steve Nash who you already mentioned. He had eFG% of 48.9, 52.8 and 44.1. Those are quite OK numbers for example compared to Ricky. But he improved to absolutely superb shooter who had seasons with TS% around 60%. In TS% he improved from 53.9, 55.6 and 47.1 to around 64% (that was league leading number in two seasons)

Ricky has had eFG% of 39.8, 38.6 and 41.3 and TS% of 47.6, 48.2 and 49.1. If he can improve his eFG% to close 50% and improve his TS% to 55%, he will be fine. That would be comparable to improvement that Nash, Blaylock and Billups had.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Abe, The second guy I can think of also played Point Guard: Chauncey Billups. He struggled with his efficiency through his first year or so, then became solid, then by his late 20s and early 30s he became ultra-efficient (like posting a 60 TS%).

So there are a couple of examples of PGs that managed to really take their scoring efficiency up a significant notch well into their 20s.

Here is Rubio's trajectory up until this season on TS%:
2011-12 - .476
2012-13 - .482
2013-14 - .491

So he's been creeping up even before the shot change. I'm hoping he can get that thing up into the low 50s eventually, which seems realistic and "good enough" in my book to make him a top 5 NBA PG given all the other things he does so well.

Edit: As usual, Mikkeman was all over this! I think the bottom-line is that while it's OK to be skeptical, there are certainly a reasonable number of data points that suggest that it's possible Rubio can make quite a significant improvement.

[TheGrey08]

Nicely done Mikkeman and Q for having the same idea lol