Wolves or Bucks...

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Question: Why can't LaVine be compared to Antetokounmpo in your scenario, Q? Giannis was a passenger on that struggle bus as a rookie too. Zach could just as easily come into his sophomore season and have a Rising Star type year like Giannis is having. And if all things are equal in their progressions, Zach's ceiling is higher than Giannis', in my opinion, due to his jumper and more explosive athleticism. Giannis is a super athlete, but Zach's even on another level.

GA rookie Per36: 10.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 6.4 RPG, 41.4 FG%
ZL rookie Per36: 12.7 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3.5 RPG, 41.4 FG%

GA rookie TS%: .518
ZL rookie TS%: 485

GA rookie PER: 10.8
ZL rookie PER: 9.3

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lavinza01.html

Neither guy's stats are going to wow you, but Giannis was just as much of an unknown last year as Zach is this year. Giannis played weak Euro basketball before transitioning to the NBA. Zach played sparingly in NCAA before jumping into this season. Both extremely raw. Both naturally gifted. I can't see how those two aren't being compared to each other when looking at Bucks' future vs Wolves' future.

Really, your expression should be:

Rubio
Wiggins
LaVine
2015 NBA Lottery Pick
Muhammad
Dieng

OR

Knight
Parker
Antetokounmpo
2015 Non-Lottery Pick
Middleton
Henson

Chalk that up as a Wolves win as far as I'm concerned and that's without including vets or even Bjelica or Bojan.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Cam...

I'm really surprised by those numbers. Because the narrative we read last year was that Giannis was a wonderful surprise with nearly unlimited potential... it was only a matter of time.

And the narrative (and advanced stats) are that LaVine has struggled mightily but has the athleticism to maybe be a really good player someday.

Truth be told, I'm on record that I'm still not convinced with LaVine. But I want to see him play something other than PG so we can see his true potential.

That being said... we know for certain Giannis is improving. In fact, he's improving as the season has progressed. That's something tangible we can hold on to... and for that reason... I have him quite a bit ahead of LaVine.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Cam...

I'm really surprised by those numbers. Because the narrative we read last year was that Giannis was a wonderful surprise with nearly unlimited potential... it was only a matter of time.

And the narrative (and advanced stats) are that LaVine has struggled mightily but has the athleticism to maybe be a really good player someday.

Truth be told, I'm on record that I'm still not convinced with LaVine. But I want to see him play something other than PG so we can see his true potential.

That being said... we know for certain Giannis is improving. In fact, he's improving as the season has progressed. That's something tangible we can hold on to... and for that reason... I have him quite a bit ahead of LaVine.

I agree with all of that actually. My post was just to show that Giannis was just as much of a project last year as Zach is this year, but it gets overlooked. The only thing that truly separates the two is one year's worth of basketball and development (and a dunk contest crown, lol).

I think Q also said he prefers Giannis to Shabazz. And sure, there's a good argument for that being true. I just think we should be comparing Zach to Giannis instead of Bazz to Giannis even though they were in the same draft class. Reason being: I don't think any of us think Bazz has star player potential. Giannis and Zach have that type of ceiling. So, when looking at the two teams' young cores, the three key matchups to watch, in my opinion, are Rubio/Knight, Wiggins/Parker and LaVine/Antetokounmpo.

I also wouldn't be making such a case for LaVine if I didn't think he had the mental makeup or professional nature to improve significantly. "Gym rat" often gets associated with LaVine. And let's face it, Zach has a pretty big ego. He talks a big game. "You know, I'm a very confident person" and "I'll never bet against my own talent". He seems to want to be great. Making a big jump next year seems plausible to me. I also assume that for the rest of this year and next year that he'll get more burn at SG, which seems to be the better backcourt position for him.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Gotcha Cam.

And I get it if we're going down in a checklist player by player... Shabazz and Middleton are probably on the same level... those borderline starters, but decent rotation guys.

[MikkeMan]

I think that the potential of Wolves young core is higher than what Bucks have. But I like Bucks veterans more than what Wolves have. Especially those ones that they got last summer. Bayless and Dudley have been great additions for them this season. Both of them have especially great advanced stats. Dudley has NetRtg 7.7 and Bayless 6.9. With those values they rank easily to top 70 in whole NBA. There is only handful of bench players with better NetRtg stats in whole league.

BTW. Kidd seems to be good young coach who is learning fast. In the beginning of last year it seemed that he is disaster as coach but now he is strong candidate for COY. I like especially how he has been able convert Bucks to one of the best defensive teams in league. Currently they have 2nd best Drtg in whole league when last season they were 2nd worst. That kind of turnaround is really impressive especially since players they got last summer (Bayless, Dudley and Parker) are not known so much from their defense. Another thing what is impressive is how they have maintained their good defense despite having several injuries for their bigs. (Parker, Ilyasova, Pachulia and Henson have missed quite many games this year.)

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think that the potential of Wolves young core is higher than what Bucks have. But I like Bucks veterans more than what Wolves have. Especially those ones that they got last summer. Bayless and Dudley have been great additions for them this season. Both of them have especially great advanced stats. Dudley has NetRtg 7.7 and Bayless 6.9. With those values they rank easily to top 70 in whole NBA. There is only handful of bench players with better NetRtg stats in whole league.

BTW. Kidd seems to be good young coach who is learning fast. In the beginning of last year it seemed that he is disaster as coach but now he is strong candidate for COY. I like especially how he has been able convert Bucks to one of the best defensive teams in league. Currently they have 2nd best Drtg in whole league when last season they were 2nd worst. That kind of turnaround is really impressive especially since players they got last summer (Bayless, Dudley and Parker) are not known so much from their defense. Another thing what is impressive is how they have maintained their good defense despite having several injuries for their bigs. (Parker, Ilyasova, Pachulia and Henson have missed quite many games this year.)

I thought Kidd was overmatched last season. But he's shown to be able to win a decent amount of games with two very different types of teams.

The one thing about Milwaukee that puts them way ahead of the Wolves right now is that they are forming an identity already. You can compile a laundry list of talent but if there's no definitive plan for how to use them cohesively, it will be a longer, more frustrating process. As Mikkeman notes, Milwaukee is a pretty solid defensive team... and that has been mostly without Larry Sanders, who was supposed to be a stalwart there.

Milwaukee is on pace to win 30+ more games than last season. That's incredible. And that's with its best player (potentially) playing only 25 games. They're already on their way to the playoffs. Now, it's time to see how much better they can get.

[MikkeMan]

I think that Milwaukee defensive turnaround gives also hope to Wolves. Since they were able to improve dramatically their defense without adding any great rim protector and their own Larry Sanders playing just handful of games, I think Wolves could do same too next year.

Bucks play currently elite defense even though their defensive rebounding rate is worse than our Wolves have. Even their blocks per game stat is not that impressive. (4.8 blocks per game compared to 4.0 that Wolves have). I think that key in their defensive play has been very good point guard defense. Both Knight and Bayless have done terrific job on guarding opponents points. Their starters have also played quite low amount of minutes and I think that has helped them to keep high defensive intensity whole game. Milwaukee has been also one of the best teams causing turnovers to their opponent.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think that Milwaukee defensive turnaround gives also hope to Wolves. Since they were able to improve dramatically their defense without adding any great rim protector and their own Larry Sanders playing just handful of games, I think Wolves could do same too next year.

Bucks play currently elite defense even though their defensive rebounding rate is worse than our Wolves have. Even their blocks per game stat is not that impressive. (4.8 blocks per game compared to 4.0 that Wolves have). I think that key in their defensive play has been very good point guard defense. Both Knight and Bayless have done terrific job on guarding opponents points. Their starters have also played quite low amount of minutes and I think that has helped them to keep high defensive intensity whole game. Milwaukee has been also one of the best teams causing turnovers to their opponent.

I don't think today's NBA defense is about any one player stopping anybody... especially not PG defense. Maybe rim protectors to some degree. But there aren't many of those guys.

It's about teams that can move as one. And if they can switch and guard multiple positions in this largely position-less league... even better. Tyson Chandler just discussed something sorta similar recently:

"People get so bent out of shape talking about the difference between a 4 and a 5, but to be honest, guys in the league rarely talk about it like that. Positions are so flexible now, and from a defensive perspective, there aren't many Tony Allens in the league who are going to lock down on one player. The NBA now is a lot about help defense and switching because the offenses are so sophisticated."

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Question: Why can't LaVine be compared to Antetokounmpo in your scenario, Q? Giannis was a passenger on that struggle bus as a rookie too. Zach could just as easily come into his sophomore season and have a Rising Star type year like Giannis is having. And if all things are equal in their progressions, Zach's ceiling is higher than Giannis', in my opinion, due to his jumper and more explosive athleticism. Giannis is a super athlete, but Zach's even on another level.

GA rookie Per36: 10.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 6.4 RPG, 41.4 FG%
ZL rookie Per36: 12.7 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3.5 RPG, 41.4 FG%

GA rookie TS%: .518
ZL rookie TS%: 485

GA rookie PER: 10.8
ZL rookie PER: 9.3

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lavinza01.html

Neither guy's stats are going to wow you, but Giannis was just as much of an unknown last year as Zach is this year. Giannis played weak Euro basketball before transitioning to the NBA. Zach played sparingly in NCAA before jumping into this season. Both extremely raw. Both naturally gifted. I can't see how those two aren't being compared to each other when looking at Bucks' future vs Wolves' future.

Really, your expression should be:

Rubio
Wiggins
LaVine
2015 NBA Lottery Pick
Muhammad
Dieng

OR

Knight
Parker
Antetokounmpo
2015 Non-Lottery Pick
Middleton
Henson

Chalk that up as a Wolves win as far as I'm concerned and that's without including vets or even Bjelica or Bojan.

Good post and I see your logic. The only reason I have Giannis > than LaVine is because Giannis is already in his second year and has proven out his potential by taking a nice second year leap. We don't know yet if LaVine will improve or not, so chalk it up to the old "bird in the hand" theory. It would be awesome if LaVine took a similar second-year jump, but I wouldn't just assume that's going to happen.

The other reason I like Giannis more than LaVine is because I actually think he has a bigger physical advantage over his opponents than LaVine. Yes, I know LaVine can jump out of the gym and sprint down the floor, but Giannis has just ridiculous length. And over the long-run, length is a more durable physical asset to possess versus vertical jump.