60WinTim wrote:Thank you Mikkeman. The 40 per numbers in college were what caught my attention, but I did not have the patience to post them or the comparisons you made. Nice job!
Quite frankly, I see even MORE egg coming on MANY people's faces than the whole "Wiggins is failing as a #1 pick" thread...
Lost in the hysterics in that thread (both the premature hand-wringing some of us did over his performance and the over-reaction by those who condemned the hand-wringing) is the fact that good old Papalrep was the one that launched that damn thing to begin with, and then quietly snuck away while the rest of us engaged in hand-to-hand combat! His Holiness is a sly one, isn't he?
That thread has been the most misconstrued, misquoted thread on this board ever. Every time it gets brought up somehow there's wrong quips that get mentioned.
"Quite frankly, I see even MORE egg coming on MANY people's faces than the whole "Wiggins is failing as a #1 pick" thread..."
Yeah, and I got told Anthony Bennett would be better in Minnesota while I vehemently said the guy was garbage. We shall see who has egg on their face in the end.
PS: There's an awful reality where we could all look bad for this trade simply because we're Wolves fans and that's just what happens to us. I could easily be right about Payne's "mehh" potential and how this trade looks sucky, but if that's the case, then I still have to deal with it because my (our) team threw away another first round pick. Yippee.
Another way I look at this is: If Payne were in the 2017 draft, would Flip pick him with his non-lottery pick? It sure sounds like Flip values Payne a lot, so the answer is "yes". He basically gets a guy NOW without having to wait another 2.5 years.
It really seems like a wise move on Flip's part, unless you really believe Payne will be a worthless* NBA player...
* Worthless means a player you can get any time in free agency because he is not good enough to force a team to hang on to him.
I am just not sure who else would offer him anything for him. Who were we bidding against? He was behind MN native Mike Muscala on the Hawks depth chart.
bleedspeed177 wrote:I am just not sure who else would offer him anything for him. Who were we bidding against? He was behind MN native Mike Muscala on the Hawks depth chart.
We will probably never know if we were bidding against anyone, but I don't think that's the issue. I think Flip recognized that we have been struggling at PF and wanted to add someone that he both liked in last year's draft and came highly recommended by his trusted buddy Izzo, and Atlanta wasn't going to take less than what they "paid" for him less than a year ago. For Flip it came down to a question of what he needed more...a guy who could fill a big hole for us at PF, or another out-of-lottery 19 year old, and he opted for Payne.
I also think the point that Payne was behind guys like Muscala and Scott on the Hawks depth chart is misleading. The guy was out with plantars fasciitis much of the first three months of the season, and having many other big man options, the Hawks didn't need him to play through the pain like he did several times his senior year at MSU (anyone who saw him score 20 and play outstanding defense in MSU's win over OSU last winter when he wasn't even supposed to play knows how tough he is...perhaps he can teach Pek something). I worry about his foot issues more than the vague lung issues we hear about, but having had occasional bouts of plantars throughout my life, I know it's generally something a guy can play through if absolutely necessary.
Q12543 wrote:This is easily the best case I've seen made on behalf of Payne. Good work Mikkeman.
I'm a fence-sitter with this move, but Mikkeman lays out a good case here. Still.....It's one year's worth of data and the dude was practically a card-carrying member of AARP at the time (unlike some of the guys Mikkeman compared him to). And his rookie year has done nothing to invalidate the pessimists.
OK, back on the fence I go......
Agreed. Good work Mikkeman. Pretty decent debate on this topic - many guys have made good points on both sides. I've reached the point of acceptance. The deal is done and there's nothing anyone can do about it now. None of us are going to know if it was a good move until at minimum the end of this year or more likely sometime next year. I'm just going to cross my fingers and hope Flip knew what he was doing. At the end of the day, it's his head that's on the line as GM and Coach...so I'm assuming he put some thought into it before pulling the trigger.
The downside to giving up a 1st round pick for Payne isn't who we would have ultimately drafted with that pick in 2017 or 2018; it's the loss of a valuable trade asset. If the Wolves develop as we hope, we should be a 7th or 8th seed payoff team in 2017. We will still be very young and on the rise. That's precisely the time you want to have as many traceable assets as possible to package for a good veteran to fill a hole and propel the team up the ladder. The pick we gave up will likely be in the 15-20 range. That's a valuable pick as a trade asset. The trade value of pi?ks in that range generally exceeds the actual value of the players ultimately taken. Given that we are likely to lose our 2016 1st round pick via the Phoenix deal, we will be strapped for tradeable assets at the very time we will probably need them the most.
I appreciate the 40-minute numbers because I think they provide grounds for hope. But even those numbers in the rebounding and shot-blocking are uninspiring for someone his size as a senior, especially when paired with his D-League numbers. Adding his foot and lung issues into the equation provides further cause for concern. I do like Payne's college scoring stats and three-point percentage as a senior. But again, my main concern isn't Payne. It's what we gave up for what we can all agree is a complete unknown as a NBA player whose age suggests very limited upside and whose pre-NBA track record in core big-man defensive areas is less than stellar.
But I'm a Wolves fan so I truly hope I'm wrong and that Payne turns out to be a very productive, valuable rotation player for the Wolves.
The only point that is really valid to me is the tradeable assets point made my Lip and others. Even with that though, who's to say Flip won't trade one of our vets/young assets for a pick? Whether, now, this coming off season or next year?
Thad, Martin, Bennett, Pek, GR3, etc. We have plenty of valuable assets. I think some people sell guys short on value (like Pek).
Overall I'm on the fence about the trade. I really wish it was top 20 protected, but a good point was made. No way the Hawks give up less for Payne than they spent less than a year ago when he hasn't even had the chance to compete this year and they have a lot of bigs already.
