Thorpe's Halfway Rookie Rankings

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Since it's an insider article I posted the whole thing below. It's just nice to have a T Wolf earning the top spot for a change. Lord knows we've had plenty of high picks who wouldn't have even been considered for most of these categories.

It's never wise to assume that a player's career track moves in a consistent pattern. The track moves a lot more like a roller coaster in the first few months or even years of a player's career.

Consider the journey Al-Farouq Aminu has taken. He made 45 3-pointers as a rookie, suggesting he could be a stretch-4 or even a full-time 3 in the NBA. Look closer though and you'll see he made 32 of those 3s before New Year's Eve of his rookie season, which is two more than he made in his last three full seasons. Combined. This season, however, he might have 20 made 3s by the trade deadline.

The point is, who these rookies are today is not close to a guarantee of who they will be tomorrow. In fact, as we reward some of the best rookies midway through the season, there's a solid chance very few of the guys below will win these categories again in April.

Best Shooter: Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves

As detailed in previous rookie reports, Wiggins just might be the best shooting rookie in the modern era among elite athletes. He's far ahead of the likes of LeBron James, Paul George and Scottie Pippen when they were rookies.

There's always the possibility Wiggins' shooting could slip, of course, but being that he's been the only consistent offensive threat for the Wolves over the past month, and given that Ricky Rubio could return soon, he might also see improvement from his already stellar start in this category.

Best Passer: Elfrid Payton, Magic

Despite not playing on a fast-paced team (though the Magic might try to start playing faster) and not having the skill yet to be a productive and efficient finisher, Payton ranks in the top five among all starting point guards in assist rate.

Payton keeps his head up, keeps his dribble alive and does a great job of using drag screens (where the trail post, or trailing post player, comes to him for a screen) to create easy shots in early offense. It's not a crazy leap to think that one day he could lead the league in assists.

Best Defender: Nerlens Noel, 76ers

He's not yet strong enough or experienced enough to be able to both guard his man while shutting down the lane from other attacks, like a Marc Gasol or Tim Duncan. But Noel is already proving to be one of the best chaos-creators in the league and maybe the best among all NBA big men.

Noel is consistently ranked in the top two for both steals and blocks among all rooks, while playing on an incredibly young team that is actually very solid in what they do defensively; the Sixers strive to create chaos (steals, blocks, deflections). He's a huge key for them, leading all NBA centers in steals per game.

Best Off The Bench: Nikola Mirotic, Bulls

Contending teams like the Bulls need their bench players to fill one of a few different roles: high-level scorer/shooter, shut-down defender, or solid player (aka "glue guy") who can fit well with the first two categories of players.

Mirotic, who has a high basketball IQ and plays at a good pace and under control, falls into that last category, something most rookies struggle to do. Then again, Mirotic is not like most rookies; he's 23 and a veteran of high-level pro basketball in Europe.

Although he's currently struggling as a shooter, he has secured a rotation spot for this season and likely beyond thanks to his ability to rebound and get to the free throw line.

Most Improved: Wiggins, Timberwolves

Injuries to Minnesota's three best players (Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin) opened up all sorts of opportunities for the team to feature Wiggins on offense. After scoring 20 or more points just twice in his first 19 games, Wiggins has now done so 11 times in 18 games. Maybe more impressively, he totaled 236 points on only 193 shots in those 11 games. So he is not pouring in points at the expense of his teammates and chucking up bad shot after bad shot.

Minnesota can't win a game but it's not because of Wiggins. In eight of the 11 games in which Wiggins scored 20, Minnesota was very competitive thanks to its rapidly ascending wing scorer.

Most Surprising (good), Jusuf Nurkic, Nuggets

He's not a surprise to ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton, who ranked him very high in his pre-draft projections, but few others felt Nurkic could be an impact player as a rookie coming over from Croatia. That is exactly what he's been for the Nuggets, however, at just 20 years old.

Post-up buckets over good defenders, offensive putbacks, smooth perimeter jumpers as a trail post -- these are all skills he is showing frequently now that he is firmly in Denver's rotation. Nurkic is also the best rebounder in this rookie class and, by the end of the season, will likely rate as its best defender, too (he might already be the Nuggets' best defender). This is what franchise-level centers look like before they turn 21.

Most Surprising (bad): Nik Stauskas, Kings

Stauskas, 21, arrived to a team in desperate need of a skilled shooter after dominating the Big Ten. So many thought he would be the rare rookie with a clear chance to play a defined role for his team.

Instead there are arguments that he is the single-worst rotation player in the NBA, based on complete ineffectiveness on offense while being a real problem on defense (though fellow rookie Zach LaVine will rival Stauskas in the "worst rotation player in the league" award").

Best Scorer: Wiggins, Timberwolves

On a per-minute basis, Nurkic leads the class in scoring (Wiggins is second). And Jabari Parker looked like a sure thing to be the best rookie scorer before he got injured. Wiggins, though, is on a great run and has jumped to the top of this list. His perimeter shooting, his ability and willingness to post up and get buckets, and his 4.4 free throw attempts per game are what's carried him.

With better talent around him, and better passing (when Rubio returns), we should see more transition buckets from Wiggins. He will also become more of an impact player on the offensive glass once Minnesota gets other scoring threats back (teams rarely help toward Shabazz Muhammad and have no problem leaving him to help on Wiggins).

Best Story: K.J. McDaniels, 76ers

McDaniels has ranked among the top 10 rookies in PER all season (not necessarily a difficult feat considering the struggles of the class) while sitting among the top 20 in the entire league in blocked shots (tops among guards/wings). But he's not the best story in this class just because he's playing well as a second-round pick.

Remember, he turned down guaranteed money so that he could be a free agent after just one year. It's looking like betting on himself was a wise choice.

Most Promising Despite Bad Start: Marcus Smart, Celtics

Now that Rajon Rondo is out of the way, Smart has been able to get consistent minutes as the Celtics' backup point guard. He's also getting to play a lot of minutes with the team's starters.

Smart's playmaking and shooting abilities are a nice combination when you factor in his quickness and power. That power will make a huge difference on the defensive end. He has the look of a starting point guard who, in time, can help a team win with his work on either side of the ball.

Best Player: Wiggins, Timberwolves

He does not lead this class in PER or RPM and may not by season's end, but Wiggins has been the best rookie by a significant margin for a month or so. No rookie save Parker has been close to what Wiggins is doing now. In addition to his offensive numbers, he is seventh in blocks and fifth in steals (among rookies), while spending a good amount of time each game assigned to the opponent's best scorer on defense. That is a rare move for a coach to use on a rookie, but Wiggins' upside as a defender demands it.

Nurkic may end up playing a lot and could make a run at Wiggins. Smart may soak up a ton of minutes with the Celtics focused on the future and thus begin to put up ROY-type numbers. And when the Wolves get healthy it is doubtful Wiggins will get the looks he gets now, so his numbers could begin to trend down (though the Wolves are likely to make more deals with their veterans to acquire younger guys or picks).

Still, as we stand today, he's the best rookie in this class and, should he maintain what he's been doing for the past five weeks, he could end up being one of the more productive rookies we have seen in some time.

Updated Top 20 rankings

1. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
2. Nikola Mirotic, Bulls
3. Jusuf Nurkic, Nuggets
4. K.J. McDaniels, 76ers
5. Nerlens Noel, 76ers
6. Tarik Black, Lakers
7. Elfrid Payton, Magic
8. Marcus Smart, Celtics
9. James Ennis, Heat
10. P.J. Hairston, Hornets
11. Kostas Papanikolaou, Rockets
12. Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets
13. Joe Ingles, Jazz
14. Jerami Grant, 76ers
15. Shabazz Napier, Heat
16. Kyle Anderson, Spurs
17. Zach LaVine, Timberwolves
18. Dante Exum, Jazz
19. Travis Wear, Knicks
20. Gary Harris, Nuggets

[Carlos Danger]

Good read - thanks for posting. Wiggins is doing great. Now if we can get LaVine out of the PG role and see if he's got a future at SG - I'd be happy.

[Papalrep]

Stauskas and our boy Zach don't fare too well...Zach is a two, or a bust

[bleedspeed]

Stauskas and our boy Zach don't fare too well...Zach is a two, or a bust

I wouldn't say he won't ever be able to play the point, but his best position is likely SG. He was put in a pretty tough position. I still think he has incredible upside if we let him develop for 3 years. When you are the first pick you really are not allowed that patience.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nurkic might be the steal of the draft and Gobert might be the steal of last year's draft. It's just amazing how in this day and age of analytics and advanced scouting that there seems to be a valuation gap between foreign bigs vs. NCAA bigs and so you can get these absolute steals with middling draft picks.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nurkic might be the steal of the draft and Gobert might be the steal of last year's draft. It's just amazing how in this day and age of analytics and advanced scouting that there seems to be a valuation gap between foreign bigs vs. NCAA bigs and so you can get these absolute steals with middling draft picks.

Even though Gobert went a lot later, there are some of other promising guys from last year's "terrible" draft:

Giannis Antekoumlkfjoaidfpo
Mason Plumlee
And even Gorgui Dieng

Giannis looks like a longtime legit starter at this level. Plumlee and Dieng look like longtime rotation guys.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Abe, Giannis was very speculative due to not having much of a body of work in the European pro leagues and so I can see how that was a hit or miss - perhaps in the same way LaVine was speculative by Flip - and therefore he seemed appropriately valued on draft boards.

As for Dieng and Plumlee, both were older prospects, and as you know, that always hurts draft stock because the general perception is by age 22 or so, it's kind of what you see is what you get. Now if what you see is really, really good, I don't see why that should hurt someone so much, but nevertheless, I understand why they were valued the way they were.

Nurkic and Gobert on the other hand had three things going for them: 1) strong track record in credible European leagues, 2) excellent physical profiles, and 3) they were fairly young. If they were at Georgetown or Kentucky, they would have probably been mocked as top 6 or 7 picks. That's what I think differentiates these guys from Dieng and Plumlee (although yes, both of those guys were good values too, in hindsight).