Dootlittle - SG Ranks

[bleedspeed]

10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.7



Martin's value has always been enhanced by his ability to attack the lane off of close-outs and get to the line. Now that he's entering his age-31 season, you do have to worry that that skill is diminishing, as his foul-drawing rate has been way down the past two years. Minnesota signed Martin for his floor-spacing ability, and he's solid at that, if a bit up-and-down. It'll be essential that he stick to the role he's given, playing off Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.

[ChuckDurn [enjin:6663487]]

Martin's free throw numbers are down the last 2 years for a simple reason: a rule change. He had a go-to move for drawing fouls, modeled after Reggie Miller: pump fake, move into the defender once he was in the air, and heave the ball with no other intention than to get the foul call. 2 years ago this tactic was changed to be a no-call, and Martin's free throw rate dropped immediately. Simple as that.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Martin's free throw numbers are down the last 2 years for a simple reason: a rule change. He had a go-to move for drawing fouls, modeled after Reggie Miller: pump fake, move into the defender once he was in the air, and heave the ball with no other intention than to get the foul call. 2 years ago this tactic was changed to be a no-call, and Martin's free throw rate dropped immediately. Simple as that.

Really, really good point. Hadn't really thought about the connection, but I can definitely see how that would help answer the free throw decline.

[GymRat [enjin:6592663]]

Chuck, you make a great point and while I do believe it has affected his FT rate, I don't think it tells the whole story. We also must consider his usage rate in 10-11 was 30% versus 21% in 12-13. I don't consider his injured season in between as statistically relevant, nor do I believe you can put much more significance on last season as he was put into a 6th man role and asked to stand in a corner.

I think a healthy Kevin Martin back in Adelman's offense stands to regain the offensive potency he displayed in 2010-11. The primary reason is the ball movement makes every player a threat, and I think OKC is below average in that respect, despite being #2 in offensive efficiency the last two seasons. OKC's assist rate was only 16.7%, putting them 22nd in the league. Basically, their top two scorers are ridiculously effective at scoring in iso or pseudo-iso situations (PnR), so Brooks developed an offense around those attributes, but Martin is not that type of player.

[Monster]

#10 is a pretty solid ranking. Martin was 14th overall for qualified NBA players last year in adjusted FG% and 9th in Points per shot. He still can score very efficiently even without the benefit of getting to the line at a high rate. The guy can shoot and on this team that's what we need him to do and he can play off guys similar to the role he had with OKC last year and this year he is playing off a low post beast in Pek and and a past first PG in Rubio. I bet he will be shooting a pretty high percentage this season and also may effect other guy's FG% in a positive way especially Pek because there will be more room to work in the painted area. He is going to help Rubio out a great deal as well.

One thing you gotta love about this team is that it gets to the line. Without love for a huge chunk of games the Wolves still got to the line the 6th most in the NBA. Martin will probably help that a little (AK got to the line at a good rate too) and having Love back means we should live at the line which will be huge and it will help offset the defensive issues we perceive to have.