Pacers@Wolves GDT

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Don't let the Pacers record fool you - they are a solid team. They have a net rating of +1.4 and an "expected" W-L of 12-10. In other words, they are experiencing what us Wolves fans are very used to by now, which is an actual W-L record that is worse than what the raw stats would predict (the Wolves' expected W-L record is 11-9, so more of the same for us).

They are mostly healthy and come into Minnesota having lost last night pretty badly. I expect them to bounce back and play a tough game while we have a letdown from the draining Philly win.

[Coolbreeze44]

With the Pacers on the 2nd night of back to backs, I like the Wolves in this one.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I keep waiting for the Pacers to start winning games regularly. I was high on them in the O/U discussions.

But it just hasn't happened yet. Along with the stats Q provided... the Pacers are in the top half of the league in both ORTG and DRTG despite another year of nagging injuries to key players... and no TJ Warren yet.

I'm still confident they'll go on a run... hopefully, it doesn't start tonight though.

[kekgeek]

McDaniels and Vando both questionable with the flu. If they can't play that would be big losses

[FNG]

I also thought the Pacers would have a much better record than they have, but in all fairness they have played a brutal schedule. They played last night, but only Brogdon played more than 27 minutes so I don't know that the BTB will be much of a factor. Even without Warren the Pacers are incredibly deep and balanced...13 players with over 100 minutes of playing time average double figures scoring per 36 (the Wolves have 6!). But like the Wolves, they turn the ball over a lot and shoot the three-pointer poorly. We're playing well recently, but this will be a tough win if PatBev, Vando and Jaden are all out (or even if the last two are less than 100% with the flu). A win puts us over .500. With the schedule starting to get tougher, this is one we need to win.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

[center]Four Factors[/center]


[table]
[tr]
[th]Team[/th]
[th]Effective Field Goal Percentage[/th]
[th]Opponent's Effective Field Goal Percentage[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Indiana Pacers[/td]
[td]52.6 (11th)[/td]
[td]50.6 (11th)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Minnesota Timberwolves[/td]
[td]50.7 (23rd)[/td]
[td]50.4 (9th)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]


[table]
[tr]
[th]Team[/th]
[th]Turnover Percentage[/th]
[th]Opponent's Turnover Percentage[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Indiana Pacers[/td]
[td]14.7 (19th)[/td]
[td]13.4 (20th)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Minnesota Timberwolves[/td]
[td]16.1 (28th)[/td]
[td]17.7 (1st)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]


[table]
[tr]
[th]Team[/th]
[th]Offensive Rebounding Percentage[/th]
[th]Defensive Rebounding Percentage[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Indiana Pacers[/td]
[td]28.4 (7th)[/td]
[td]74.4 (9th)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Minnesota Timberwolves[/td]
[td]31.5 (2nd)[/td]
[td]67.9 (30th)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]


[table]
[tr]
[th]Team[/th]
[th]Free Throw Attempt Rate[/th]
[th]Opponent's Free Throw Attempt Rate[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Indiana Pacers[/td]
[td]0.199 (28th)[/td]
[td]0.251 (28th)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Minnesota Timberwolves[/td]
[td]0.204 (27th)[/td]
[td]0.281 (30th)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]


[table]
[tr]
[th]Team[/th]
[th]Injury Report[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Indiana Pacers[/td]
[td]T.J. Warren (Out) - Left Foot Injury[/td]
[tr]
[td]Minnesota Timberwolves[/td]
[td]Jaden McDaniels (Questionable) - Flu-Like Symptoms
Jarred Vanderbilt (Questionable) - Flu-Like Symptoms
Patrick Beverley (Out) - Left Adductor Strain
[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]


Bottom Line

The Pacers are performing much better than their 9-13 record would indicate. Unsurprisingly, they're a very good rebounding team with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner on the interior. That will be an aspect to watch all night, especially if Jarred Vanderbilt can't play. The Wolves will have to create extra possessions to make up for their rebounding and the Pacers have shown that they can be turnover prone so far this season. In the same sense, Minnesota has to protect the basketball -- specifically Anthony Edwards (10th) and Karl-Anthony Towns (14th) who both rank in the top-15 in turnovers per game. Minnesota was favored by 3.0 when I started this post and the line has since moved to 2.5, presumably due to the injury report. I expect the Wolves to cover tonight. This is definitely a game the Wolves need to win because the next four after are brutal.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Myles Turner (illness) has been ruled out for Monday's game vs. Minnesota. The line has now changed to 3.5.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Starters:
D'Angelo Russell
Anthony Edwards
Taurean Prince
Josh Okogie
Karl-Anthony Towns

Out:
Patrick Beverley - Left Adductor Strain
Jaden McDaniels- Flu-Like Symptoms
Jarred Vanderbilt- Flu-Like Symptoms
McKinley Wright IV - G League Two-Way

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

No Myles Turner means Anthony Edwards has a runway to the rim tonight and he's attacking. Love it.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The defense has been inconsistent to start. Leandro Bolmaro's in the game now. Let's see some energy.