The Beverley Effect

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm watching the latest episode of the Timberwolves Track the Pack series on YouTube. They showed where the team was having dinner together and getting to know one another. Patrick Beverley stood up and introduced himself to everyone in the room. He started off by saying he's heading into his 10th year in the NBA and 14th professionally including his years overseas. And then he said this:

"I've been on a lot of winning cultures, played with a lot of great players, met a lot of great people, have a lot of great friends. I'm here to do one thing: impact winning. That's all, that's all, that's all. Whether that's, I don't know, helping a young guy, helping rebound for somebody, hitting a big shot, fouling the shit out of somebody, getting a technical foul, whatever the fucking case may be. Impact winning."

This guy gets it. It's why everyone hates him unless he's on your team and then you love him. His impact on the team is already noticeable. I think he'll prove to be a real table-setter defensively and he's proven enough to force guys to listen to him. Minnesota acquired him for a Jarrett Culver and Juan Hernangomez package and I still can't believe it's real. I think Gersson Rosas made a lot of good moves during his short time with the Wolves, but none may be as big of a slam dunk as that one. Beverley will prove to be a huge addition.

[FNG]

No question about it. PatBev is indisputably the leader of this team, and we will be better if we follow his lead. I noted how many of our players talked about him on media day (although I'm still shaking my head about his decision to skip media day and the first couple days of practice to attend Fashion Week in Milan...today's NBA player is definitely a new breed and I gotta accept it.), and I agree he will make a difference. I wonder how much of the increased defensive intensity we saw from Russell and Ant in preseason can be attributed to PatBev...I suspect a lot.

Too bad we don't get to see him tonight due to his suspension, but I think he will still be a vocal factor from the bench. He seems like the kind of guy who will get in your face if you're lazy on D.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I just find it hilarious that he's suspended for his first game with us. And let's face it, there is almost no more worthy recipient of his poor decision than Chris Paul. Who hasn't wanted to deck that guy from time to time with the antics he's pulled off over the years!?

I think the longer term potential problem with a guy like PBev is at what point does his bark become bigger than his bite and all he becomes is a caricature of himself? He's 33 and prone to injury. Age won't slow down his chirping, but it could eventually render him ineffective. And at that point, he just becomes annoying to people - team mates included!

[Monster]

I just find it hilarious that he's suspended for his first game with us. And let's face it, there is almost no more worthy recipient of his poor decision than Chris Paul. Who hasn't wanted to deck that guy from time to time with the antics he's pulled off over the years!?

I think the longer term potential problem with a guy like PBev is at what point does his bark become bigger than his bite and all he becomes is a caricature of himself? He's 33 and prone to injury. Age won't slow down his chirping, but it could eventually render him ineffective. And at that point, he just becomes annoying to people - team mates included!

I'll be surprised if he is here after this season. If he can still play he is gonna get a pretty decent chunk of money. Maybe he really wants to be here and signs for a decent contract for a couple years. Just to compare TJ McConnell got the full mid-level this offseason. Don't get me wrong I would love Beverly to stick around a couple more years assuming he is still reasonably effective but I'm also realistic in thinking it's more likely he isn't.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I just find it hilarious that he's suspended for his first game with us. And let's face it, there is almost no more worthy recipient of his poor decision than Chris Paul. Who hasn't wanted to deck that guy from time to time with the antics he's pulled off over the years!?

I think the longer term potential problem with a guy like PBev is at what point does his bark become bigger than his bite and all he becomes is a caricature of himself? He's 33 and prone to injury. Age won't slow down his chirping, but it could eventually render him ineffective. And at that point, he just becomes annoying to people - team mates included!

I'll be surprised if he is here after this season. If he can still play he is gonna get a pretty decent chunk of money. Maybe he really wants to be here and signs for a decent contract for a couple years. Just to compare TJ McConnell got the full mid-level this offseason. Don't get me wrong I would love Beverly to stick around a couple more years assuming he is still reasonably effective but I'm also realistic in thinking it's more likely he isn't.

If Minnesota ends up being a playoff team and Patrick Beverley was a contributor for 60 or so games, I would expect there to be mutual interest in getting a new deal done. He's very quickly inserted himself as a strong leader and an overall presence on the team. They need a couple more seasons like that before you could consider it a real culture change, especially one that could sustain itself after Beverley's gone. They'll also have much more cap flexibility next summer and he won't be able to command much as a backup point guard -- far less than the $14-million he's making this year. I could see a two-year, $12-million deal similar to what Patty Mills just got from Brooklyn.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I just find it hilarious that he's suspended for his first game with us. And let's face it, there is almost no more worthy recipient of his poor decision than Chris Paul. Who hasn't wanted to deck that guy from time to time with the antics he's pulled off over the years!?

I think the longer term potential problem with a guy like PBev is at what point does his bark become bigger than his bite and all he becomes is a caricature of himself? He's 33 and prone to injury. Age won't slow down his chirping, but it could eventually render him ineffective. And at that point, he just becomes annoying to people - team mates included!

I'll be surprised if he is here after this season. If he can still play he is gonna get a pretty decent chunk of money. Maybe he really wants to be here and signs for a decent contract for a couple years. Just to compare TJ McConnell got the full mid-level this offseason. Don't get me wrong I would love Beverly to stick around a couple more years assuming he is still reasonably effective but I'm also realistic in thinking it's more likely he isn't.

If Minnesota ends up being a playoff team and Patrick Beverley was a contributor for 60 or so games, I would expect there to be mutual interest in getting a new deal done. He's very quickly inserted himself as a strong leader and an overall presence on the team. They need a couple more seasons like that before you could consider it a real culture change, especially one that could sustain itself after Beverley's gone. They'll also have much more cap flexibility next summer and he won't be able to command much as a backup point guard -- far less than the $14-million he's making this year. I could see a two-year, $12-million deal similar to what Patty Mills just got from Brooklyn.

That deal for Mills in Brooklyn might turn out to be a steal.

And I'm not just saying that off what he did last night. He's a guy who can give even the best teams 15 or 20 minutes per night as a heat check guy off the bench. That's a guy who can swing a game in the NBA playoffs. Totally worth the "relatively cheap" $6M he's getting paid.

We'll see how Beverley's skills translate with age on a third-tier team... but $6M would be palatable.



[Note: One rub... If things go poorly, isn't it unlikely Beverley even finishes the season in Minnesota?]

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

If things go poorly, he'll be traded at the deadline to a contender needing exactly what PatBev provides. Minnesota could easily recoup value there, I'd think. But obviously, I'm not expecting this to be a poor year for the Wolves so I think they'd keep him.

[Monster]

I just find it hilarious that he's suspended for his first game with us. And let's face it, there is almost no more worthy recipient of his poor decision than Chris Paul. Who hasn't wanted to deck that guy from time to time with the antics he's pulled off over the years!?

I think the longer term potential problem with a guy like PBev is at what point does his bark become bigger than his bite and all he becomes is a caricature of himself? He's 33 and prone to injury. Age won't slow down his chirping, but it could eventually render him ineffective. And at that point, he just becomes annoying to people - team mates included!

I'll be surprised if he is here after this season. If he can still play he is gonna get a pretty decent chunk of money. Maybe he really wants to be here and signs for a decent contract for a couple years. Just to compare TJ McConnell got the full mid-level this offseason. Don't get me wrong I would love Beverly to stick around a couple more years assuming he is still reasonably effective but I'm also realistic in thinking it's more likely he isn't.

If Minnesota ends up being a playoff team and Patrick Beverley was a contributor for 60 or so games, I would expect there to be mutual interest in getting a new deal done. He's very quickly inserted himself as a strong leader and an overall presence on the team. They need a couple more seasons like that before you could consider it a real culture change, especially one that could sustain itself after Beverley's gone. They'll also have much more cap flexibility next summer and he won't be able to command much as a backup point guard -- far less than the $14-million he's making this year. I could see a two-year, $12-million deal similar to what Patty Mills just got from Brooklyn.

That deal for Mills in Brooklyn might turn out to be a steal.

And I'm not just saying that off what he did last night. He's a guy who can give even the best teams 15 or 20 minutes per night as a heat check guy off the bench. That's a guy who can swing a game in the NBA playoffs. Totally worth the "relatively cheap" $6M he's getting paid.

We'll see how Beverley's skills translate with age on a third-tier team... but $6M would be palatable.



[Note: One rub... If things go poorly, isn't it unlikely Beverley even finishes the season in Minnesota?]

Mills doesn't suck on defense either. I'd guess the Nets got a discount because he wants to win. So yes that contract was a terrific value I've always been a fan of Mills. If Beverly is willing to sign for something in that range to come back with the Wolves after this year then yeah it might happen. I think the market might be stronger. We will see.

[FNG]

Others have pointed out how good the net rating of our Big Three is this season (+13.1), and that is very important for our future. But unfortunately it turns out that half of their minutes have been with PatBev, and half have been without, and the results are wildly different...+24.4 when playing with Beverley, but -2.5 when not. This is concerning for two reasons: First, we can't expect PatBev to stay healthy all season unless this season is a complete aberration, and if our Big Three alone have been negative without him against weak competition, how will they fare without him against better and healthier teams? Secondly, at 33 Beverley is not a long-term piece for us...we need our Big Three to show they are good enough to win without him.

But since this is the Beverley Effect thread, let's appreciate what a great addition he has been, and begrudgingly thank Rosas for his successful trade.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Dane Moore:

KAT + Ant + DLo 3-man lineup (300 minutes)
O: 110.1
D: 97.1
Net: +13.1

KAT + Ant + DLo w/ Beverley also ON (154 minutes)
O: 121.6
D: 97.2
Net: +24.4

KAT + Ant + DLo w/ Beverley OFF (146 minutes)
O: 97.9
D: 100.4
Net: -2.5

I get a much different impression when I look at this. Firstly, the defense is real. They're obviously better with Patrick Beverley on the court, but the fact that the defense is still holding its own without him is promising and matches the eye test. Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards have all taken big steps on that end this season.

Secondly, it's the offense that is most affected by Beverley coming off the court. Why might this be? Well, it could be because whoever replaces him in that lineup -- Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince, Jaden McDaniels, Josh Okogie -- hasn't consistently made shots to this point. Beverley's been one of the few Wolves who didn't start the year slumping in that regard. He also provides sound ball-handling and facilitating. As discussed plenty before the season started, this team is severely lacking those skills outside of Russell. The Wolves are overall less capable of creating shots for others and less prone to making shots when Beverley sits. That adds up logically and that's what these numbers illustrate to me. If Beasley was playing up to his standard, then I'm not sure we'd see this much of a difference in the offense when Beverley sits. Russell's hot/cold (more cold than hot so far) shooting to start the year hasn't helped in that regard either.

I wouldn't be worried about the offensive production of Minnesota's "big three" though. We have enough data that suggests those guys can score the ball at a high rate and do it playing alongside one another. Remember, they had the sixth-best offense in the second half of last season. They will be fine. Their success is not dependent on Beverley, though he obviously helps.