D'Angelo Russell in crunch time

[Sundog]

As we're all waiting for Wolves news, here's something that some of you might find interesting. I came across this advanced stat model called "NBA Clutch Shooting"... see this link: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnPlayerSplit.php

I don't know much about it or the fella that puts it together, but the stat seems to triy to capture how a player performs in clutch moments, in two ways: 1) shots taken that have an elevated impact on win probability and 2) shots crucial to game outcome (buzzer beaters). This past year, DLO took 64 shots in that first category and made 42.2% of them. He took 15 shots in the second category, and made 66.7%.

Comparing his performance to other players -- DLO's performance re: buzzer beaters is pretty elite. Only Terry Rozier has a higher percentage (70.8%) among players that took at least 10 of those shots. Dame made 65% of the 20 buzzer beating opportunities he had last year, so DLO is comparable to Dame there. Doncic took the same number of shots that D'Angelo did, and made 63.3% of those -- pretty comparable there too.

I'm not reading too much into this, except that it seems to reinforce for me that Russell might be one of those players that plays better in the "moments that matter" and that it's his performance in between those moments that is problematic. As the Wolves improve (if the Wolves improve), I'd expect more games to matter and that there will be more moments in those games that matter -- if so, I think Russell's performance will improve.

[Wolvesfan21]

I think that is a good take. I also pointed out that when DLO's team was competitive in Brooklyn he also had his best season. He might be a guy who can't give much effort when he's on a bad team, when the games really don't matter. But when they do, he plays well or ups his game.

DLO was also in a contract year in Brooklyn so that may have played into it as well, no doubt. I want to see him back to near All Star level this season if they even think about extending him for max money.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

That's too small of a sample size to take much away from those stats.

The bottom line is that DLO has been a relatively inefficient volume scorer that doesn't play defense. It's his reputation and key reason why he's bounced around the last couple of years. Unfortunately, other than the small window of solid play we saw under Finch, he didn't do anything else in recent history to shake that reputation.

My hope is that Edwards quickly surpasses him in the pecking order for Minnesota and that DLO slots in as mostly a distributor, floor spacer, and 3rd option scorer. Hopefully this will drive up his overall efficiency. As for the defense....hard for me to see him maintain any semblance of solid play on that end for an 82-game season. May be if we make a decent run toward playoff contention he'll muster up the energy to actually care about it for more than a handful of games....

[Sundog]

Definitely understand that, Q...

As for the sample size, Dlo's clutch shooting performance last year was a bit better than his 2018-2019 season with the Nets, where he shot 24 of those buzzer beater shots and hit 50% of them. Dame shot 28 and hit 46.4% of them. Beal took 28, and hit 55.4%. Booker took 21 and hit 45.2%. See: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnPlayerSplit.php?season=2018&team=ALL&pos=ALL&po=0&frdt=2018-10-16&todt=2019-06-13&shot=both&grp=1&dst=plyr&sort=sfg4&order=DESC

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Well, we know that DLO is a shot maker that can hit the mid-range, a shot that playoff defenses often give up in order to avoid 3s and shots at the rim. There is no question he can be a weapon. The question is whether there is enough strength in the rest of the team to make up for his prodigious defensive deficits. KAT is not a good pairing on that front....

[Lipoli390]

Well, we know that DLO is a shot maker that can hit the mid-range, a shot that playoff defenses often give up in order to avoid 3s and shots at the rim. There is no question he can be a weapon. The question is whether there is enough strength in the rest of the team to make up for his prodigious defensive deficits. KAT is not a good pairing on that front....

Q - I think you hit the nail on the head. DLO isn't a stiff. He's talented and, as Sundog's stats show, he's proven to be a pretty clutch scorer. My main problems with the DLO acquisition have always been: (1) how much we gave up to get him; and (2) his extremely poor fit with KAT as one of our two stars. That's why who we surround those two with will be critical. If they're surrounded by good defenders and if DLO isn't relied on as our #1 or #2 scorer, then this can work. Last's year's draft offers hope because Ant can replace DLO as our #2 and probably supplant KAT as our #1 while McDaniels looks like he'll be a stellar defender with a solid offensive game. And Ant certainly has the physical tools to be a really good defender.