Q12543 wrote:For what it's worth, both Dane Moore and Britt Robson predicted them to win 38-44 games and hang around the conversation for a bottom seed or play-in game.
Dane said something on one of his most recent podcast that this team isn't built "seriously". He was basically lamenting the same thing a bunch of us have been lamenting - the lack of size; no obvious starting PF; dead in the water if Naz or KAT go down for a long stretch, etc.
The good news is finding more size and muscle upfront with some semblance of skills should not be THAT difficult and hopefully it will finally be addressed between now and this time next year.
FiveThirtyEight also has the Wolves going 40-42 this year with a 40-percent chance of making the playoffs and winding up as the 10th-seed. Not saying that's a guarantee of anything, but it's another prediction in the 40-range. It's not just us homers here on the board that see talent on Minnesota's roster.
To be fair... their highly analytical model has them only 2 games below the Lakers. That model also has the Pelicans winning 47 games... only 2 behind the Nets.
[Note: Not knocking the 40 win total for the Wolves... only questioning 538 overall just a bit.]
Good to see some national prognosticators showing some optimism about the Wolves. Gives me some hope that we can actually challenge for that 10th spot.
1) ESPN has us 19th in its power ratings, but more importantly, 10th in the West which puts us in the play-in. 19th in the NBA last year added up to 33 wins, which equates to 37.6 wins in an 82-game season.
2) 538.com values us even higher, still 19th in the NBA and 10th in the West but with 40 wins.
3) Zach Harper in the Athletic has us 22nd in the league which would have had us at 31 wins last year, which equates to 35 wins in a full 82-game season.
4) But the measure I put the most faith in...how this board's pre-season projection compares to actual results the past 5 seasons, the Wolves would end this season with 32 wins.
So three outside data points for us to consider, all higher than the Vegas line:
For fans of a team that won 23 games last season, these predictions are a ray of hope. I'm still in "show me" mode and comfortable with my forecast, but I gotta admit that I like what I see from ESPN and Nate Silver.
Might as well toss a number...39 wins. The Wolves will be in the hunt all season, with a trade at the deadline to bring in a big man, that we will overpay for. And still miss the playoffs.
