Wolves Regular Season Rotation

[Monster]

This morning's Strib names Jake Layman as the likely starter at PF, and Saunders' lineups in preseason support this. Can someone help me get comfortable with Layman starting over Juancho, because it just doesn't make sense to me. Here are reasons why I prefer Juancho.

1) Layman was considered a SF coming out of college, and to the best of my knowledge, isn't much bigger now. His 6'8" height is adequate for a PF, but his 6'9" wingspan and 209 pounds make him quite undersized. Juancho is a little taller and heavier, and his 7'0" wingspan is much better than Jake's.

2) Juancho is a far superior rebounder- 7.6 per 36 compared to Jake's 5, and 8.9 with the Wolves last year compared to Jake's 4.1. I have seen no evidence that Layman can be anywhere close to an average NBA PF rebounder.

3) Juancho is a far superior 3-point shooter- 36% for his career (42% with the Wolves) compared to Jake's career average of 31% (33% with the Wolves).

4) I can find no statistical evidence to differentiate the two defensively, but I give the nod to Juancho due to his superior length.

I'm not nearly as much of a Ryan Saunders detractor as others here, but I'm baffled as to why he would start an undersized Layman at PF when we have a clearly superior alternative. Can someone please sell me on why Layman should start ahead of Juancho, and please show your work.

You asked for some reasons for Layman to have this position so I'll give you some. I'm not all in on him being a starter but you asked.

First Layman is 6'8" without shoes. Yes his wingspan is only 6'9.25" but he is a legit 6'9" guy that's not a small guy (Height) especially with his athletic ability.

I'm not suggesting Layman is this type of player but look up his career numbers compared to Jerami Grant. He isn't a good rebounder either. He has a longer wingspan 7'2.25" and more blocks but he is also 6'6'5" barefoot. RHJ was 6'5.5" in barefoot and 7'2" wingspan. Layman is not as long as those guys but they are also undersized PFs. It's not like we are looking at Okogie or something.

I'm not going to suggest a Layman is a good rebounder but what kind of rebounding numbers would he put up as a PF? I do t think we have seen a significant amount of minutes to know. Juancho played a lot of SF in Denver so his rebounding numbers are less too.

My guess is Juancho will get some starts in some sort of matchup playing by the Wolves. Layman always seems like a guy that shoots the ball well but hasn't hit the 3 at a good percentage. That's sorta the story with both Juancho and Layman but Juancho has more of a track record of success. I think to one extent or another both Layman and Juancho are players that have the theoretical skill sets that can be really worthwhile but they aren't proven. They were lesser players on good teams that had better options. Maybe they break through to some extent. Maybe they don't. If either does it's gonna help this team quite a bit even if they aren't average starters level of players. High level rotation players can help teams. RHJ seems like he has been that type of guy. He is flawed but it seems like he would be a guy various good teams would want around. I hope the Wolves bring him back.

[FNG]

Thanks for the reply, monsterpile. I think the Layman/Juancho discussion comes down to a comparison of four factors: size, rebounding, shooting and quickness.

Size: Juancho is taller, longer and heavier than Layman. although frankly only average for an NBA PF. The problem I see is that Layman is so much lighter and less lengthy than the typical NBA PF, I see him getting destroyed defensively and on the boards.

Rebounding: We know the stats: Layman has been a terrible rebounder during his career, while Juancho has been at least average. You suggest that Layman might put up better numbers at PF, but my fear is that it is just the opposite. Unfortunately I was only able to follow the Dallas game on the internet, and I noted that Jake started the game at PF but moved to his natural position of SF after some first period substitutions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed to me that he got most if not all of his rebounds when he was playing SF. I don't disagree that Jake is young and could eventually improve on his bad rebounding stats, but I only see him becoming a worse rebounder if he is being outmuscled by PF's that outweigh him by 30-40 pounds.

Shooting: I continue to have hopes for Jake as a shooter because I think his form is actually quite good. But how many more years of statistics do we need before we have to conclude he just isn't ever going to be an average 3-point shooter? Juancho on the other hand also has decent shooting form and has had some success as a 3-point shooter, and showed excellent improvement last year. A mirage? Maybe. But objectively we have to conclude that Juancho is the better shooter.

Quickness: This is the one area Jake supporters can point to that I have to agree with based on just the eye test- Layman certainly seems quicker than Juancho out there.

But is that one factor at which he bests Juancho justification to move Sunshine ahead of him in the rotation? That's a really tough conclusion for me to reach, and I continue to hope Saunders is in agreement. I'd love to get Jake some minutes at his natural SF position, but who are we going to knock out of the rotation to give him those minutes? If I'm coaching the team, I would spot Jake in occasionally at PF when the matchup allowed it- i.e. the other team is also playing an undersized PF. But absent that condition, he's going to have to dramatically improve his 3-point shooting if he wants to take away some minutes from Culver or Edwards at SF.

[AbeVigodaLive]

So we're debating who's the best PF on this team...

A guy in his 5th year who's never averaged more than 6.0 ppg, sans a 14-game stretch for a tanking team.
vs.
A guy in his 5th year who's coming off a career high season of 9.1 points... and 2.5 rebounds.

[MikkeMan]

Layman has also probably 10 inches better vertical jumping ability than Hernangomez has, which might explain why his shot blocking stats are much better than Hernsnhomez's numbers.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

This morning's Strib names Jake Layman as the likely starter at PF, and Saunders' lineups in preseason support this. Can someone help me get comfortable with Layman starting over Juancho, because it just doesn't make sense to me. Here are reasons why I prefer Juancho.

1) Layman was considered a SF coming out of college, and to the best of my knowledge, isn't much bigger now. His 6'8" height is adequate for a PF, but his 6'9" wingspan and 209 pounds make him quite undersized. Juancho is a little taller and heavier, and his 7'0" wingspan is much better than Jake's.

2) Juancho is a far superior rebounder- 7.6 per 36 compared to Jake's 5, and 8.9 with the Wolves last year compared to Jake's 4.1. I have seen no evidence that Layman can be anywhere close to an average NBA PF rebounder.

3) Juancho is a far superior 3-point shooter- 36% for his career (42% with the Wolves) compared to Jake's career average of 31% (33% with the Wolves).

4) I can find no statistical evidence to differentiate the two defensively, but I give the nod to Juancho due to his superior length.

I'm not nearly as much of a Ryan Saunders detractor as others here, but I'm baffled as to why he would start an undersized Layman at PF when we have a clearly superior alternative. Can someone please sell me on why Layman should start ahead of Juancho, and please show your work.

This is a joke right? Obviously layman isn't a 4, but in this 1-3-1 system, layman is 10 times better than hgomez. Hgomez is slow and just flat out bad.

Nope, no joke man. I did hear a couple good ones this week though.

Did you hear the one about the guy who thought a 209 lb guy who played SF in college and mostly in the pros could defend NBA PFs, who average 232 lbs?

Or this one. Did you hear the one about the guy who thought a 6'8" guy with an alligator-like 6'9" wingspan could defend NBA PF's who average over 7 feet in wingspan, just because he is quick?

Or how 'bout this one. Did you hear the one about the guy who thought an undersized PF with a career 31% 3-point average is a better choice to start than a bigger PF with a career average of 36% (and 42% with the Wolves) in a system that favors the 3-point shot, just because the undersized guy is the second coming of Usain Bolt?

Of perhaps my favorite. Did you hear about the guy who preferred the "PF" who has averaged 5 rebounds per 36- that's right FIVE (5)- to the better shooting option who has averaged 7.6?

Sorry man. I hear your argument that Juancho is "slow and just flat out bad" and doesn't fit the system, but I don't find it very well thought out or supported by data. I've shown how Juancho is much more of an actual PF in size, rebounds 50% better, and hits his threes at a much better percentage. And your rebuttal is that the player you don't prefer is "just flat out bad". This is a joke, right?

Look, I don't think his team is set at PF at all, and I would have preferred to see RHJ on Wednesday night. But I need a lot more valid data than you're providing before I join you and Ryan on the "Layman for starting PF" train.

First, good to see you on this board. I'm new commenting here too. Second, I am definitely not on the "start layman at PF" train... I am on the "hernangomez should never play" train. Huge mistake signing. Huge mistake by rosas not realizing that there would be better bigs available now for the minimum... again he only resigned the dude because he would look like an idiot for not resigning the guy he just traded a very good asset for (also a big factor in why we had to "overpay" for Beasley). So yeah, you give me a choice between a guy who is completely worthless and a guy who is a little undersized but does a lot of good things, I'm obviously taking the latter. I don't like the system and don't like waiving RHJ. Im starting to think our pobo was maybe the assistant that got morey coffee and not so much the assistant that helped him make decisions.

[FNG]

Layman has also probably 10 inches better vertical jumping ability than Hernangomez has, which might explain why his shot blocking stats are much better than Hernsnhomez's numbers.

[FNG]

So we're debating who's the best PF on this team...

A guy in his 5th year who's never averaged more than 6.0 ppg, sans a 14-game stretch for a tanking team.
vs.
A guy in his 5th year who's coming off a career high season of 9.1 points... and 2.5 rebounds.

Ha, I agree that the prospects of this team are not dependent on our PF! But I think you're missing the broader point of this discussion: is Ryan Saunders capable of putting the right guys on the floor at the right time? And the answer to that will have a lot to do with our success this season. It seems this board is only about 10% in favor of Saunders as coach, and I still am clinging to my position in that 10%. But I have also said I don't think x's and o's are the key to a coach's success. Instead I see motivating a team and lineup/rotation construction is much more important. Just my prejudice. And I'm concerned about two lineup decisions Ryan seems to be leaning toward that will probably knock me out of the Ryan-favorable minority.

First, I think it's terribly misguided to try to force a non-rebounding poor shooting undersized forward into a prominent PF role.

Secondly, I think this team can be most effective with Rubio at PG and D-Lo at SG. Chris Hines tweets that Saunders wants to have either Rubio or D-Lo on the floor at all times. Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but that sounds like D-Lo starts at PG, and Ricky replaces him when he needs a blow. I think that would be a horrible rotation decision by Ryan.

I'm a Wolves fan, so while I may lose faith in Saunders, I'll still cheer for the 5 guys he puts out there to start (and perhaps finish) games. But it may be difficult for me to celebrate regular 9-3-1 31% shooting lines for Jake with subpar defense.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

There are only three times that I can tell where a lineup with KAT in it played significant minutes of good defense:

2015-16: KAT-KG-Prince
2017-18: KAT-Gibson-Butler
2018-19: KAT-Gibson-RoCo

That's pretty much it. Notice how in all three cases, there is a traditionally sized PF and SF known for being good-to-great defenders.

Keep in mind that we also need a defense to hide DLO. There is simply no way this team can defend anyone with a Layman/Juancho/Okogie/Edwards forward rotation.

And this is why despite all the talk from KAT and Ryan about focus on defense, the front office ultimately failed to deliver (or keep in RHJ's case) the players that can actually make it happen.

[FNG]

There are only three times that I can tell where a lineup with KAT in it played significant minutes of good defense:

2015-16: KAT-KG-Prince
2017-18: KAT-Gibson-Butler
2018-19: KAT-Gibson-RoCo

That's pretty much it. Notice how in all three cases, there is a traditionally sized PF and SF known for being good-to-great defenders.

Keep in mind that we also need a defense to hide DLO. There is simply no way this team can defend anyone with a Layman/Juancho/Okogie/Edwards forward rotation.

And this is why despite all the talk from KAT and Ryan about focus on defense, the front office ultimately failed to deliver (or keep in RHJ's case) the players that can actually make it happen.

Yeah, that's my fear too, Q. And why many of us still don't understand the RHJ decision. Maybe the logic will appear sometime, but I doubt it.

By the way, I loved starting games with KAT/KG/Prince back in 2015. A lot of fans didn't like it, but give me a 20-16 lead after the first quarter any night!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

There are only three times that I can tell where a lineup with KAT in it played significant minutes of good defense:

2015-16: KAT-KG-Prince
2017-18: KAT-Gibson-Butler
2018-19: KAT-Gibson-RoCo

That's pretty much it. Notice how in all three cases, there is a traditionally sized PF and SF known for being good-to-great defenders.

Keep in mind that we also need a defense to hide DLO. There is simply no way this team can defend anyone with a Layman/Juancho/Okogie/Edwards forward rotation.

And this is why despite all the talk from KAT and Ryan about focus on defense, the front office ultimately failed to deliver (or keep in RHJ's case) the players that can actually make it happen.

Yeah, that's my fear too, Q. And why many of us still don't understand the RHJ decision. Maybe the logic will appear sometime, but I doubt it.

By the way, I loved starting games with KAT/KG/Prince back in 2015. A lot of fans didn't like it, but give me a 20-16 lead after the first quarter any night!

I think it's also unfair to KAT. We're basically telling him he needs to anchor the paint with basically zero help AND be the #1 option on offense. For all the big brains in the front office, how do they not know by now that he's not Hakeem or even Embiid? He's Dirk. This isn't hard stuff, yet Rosas appears to arrogantly believe that a 5-out offensive system is more important than anything else, including stopping the other team.