NBA Rookie Watch - Edwards v. Others

[AbeVigodaLive]

How can you be certain that Anthony Edwards wouldn't be available at three? That's seems like irrational confidence to me. If the Wolves trade with Charlotte and they take James Wiseman as expected, then all eyes are on Golden State with what they'd do. Are they taking Edwards or trading the pick? Well, I see no need for Edwards on that roster even with Klay Thompson out, and it's fair to assess that they had already prepared the framework of the Kelly Oubre deal before draft night. The Warriors had done their homework. But their frontcourt remained a problem area.

I think it's more likely that Golden State trades down. They could have even traded down just two spots with Chicago and picked up Wendell Carter Jr., reportedly. That would have allowed them to select Deni Avdija, Patrick Williams, or any other prospect that fit their roster better. That's the better bet.

And who would Chicago have drafted after trading up? Well, all indications point towards the Bulls wanting LaMelo Ball. The chatter was that they wouldn't let him fall past four and were already trying to move up to get him pre-draft.

And I'm sure there were other opportunities available that leave Edwards to the Wolves at three in that scenario. Maybe the Knicks or Pistons trade up for the allure of Ball. To have such confidence that Edwards was going second overall when there's enough reason to believe otherwise just doesn't add up to me.

Agreed.

I don't see why GSW would have felt stuck at #2 if they didn't really dig the guy there.

I think they would have felt stuck because they would have been hit with the same reality Rosas was likely hit with- the Big 3 were just not attractive enough to lead any savvy GM to offer much of value to move up. Or at least all offers weren't considered attractive enough to pull the trigger. That's why there was no movement in the top 3, even though we can be fairly certain there were a lot of weak offers. We've heard the Bulls offered Carter to move up two spots, but to my point, the offer (if there even was an offer) was not deemed sufficient to accept. Would the Bulls have offered Carter to move up to get Edwards if we had chosen Wiseman? Maybe, but doubtful. And even though there was chatter that they were not going to let Ball fall below 4, it was just that- chatter. And there's no indication they would take Ball at 2. The Rosas detractors here are putting a lot of faith in the ability of the top 3 picks to move down, and yet it didn't happen for some very good reasons If I'm Rosas, I'm not willing to roll the dice on GS not choosing Edwards or trading down, in which case I would still bet money that the team trading up would select Edwards, leaving us still stuck with Ball- or with a third pick that isn't very valuable in the eyes of the GM's below us. The prevailing opinion here was "Wiseman, but also anything but Ball". I think Rosas also wanted to avoid Ball at all costs, and knew that trading down to 3 would leave us with Ball as the top guy on the board. No thanks.

Trading down was my first choice, but it was not without a significant element of risk if Wiseman and Edwards went 1-2. I wouldn't have done it, and I'm glad Rosas avoided that risk.

We don't know what was actually offered either team... and that's really where any discussion about right/wrong moves would need to go.

That being said... I advocated moving out of #3, too.

[FNG]

How can you be certain that Anthony Edwards wouldn't be available at three? That's seems like irrational confidence to me. If the Wolves trade with Charlotte and they take James Wiseman as expected, then all eyes are on Golden State with what they'd do. Are they taking Edwards or trading the pick? Well, I see no need for Edwards on that roster even with Klay Thompson out, and it's fair to assess that they had already prepared the framework of the Kelly Oubre deal before draft night. The Warriors had done their homework. But their frontcourt remained a problem area.

I think it's more likely that Golden State trades down. They could have even traded down just two spots with Chicago and picked up Wendell Carter Jr., reportedly. That would have allowed them to select Deni Avdija, Patrick Williams, or any other prospect that fit their roster better. That's the better bet.

And who would Chicago have drafted after trading up? Well, all indications point towards the Bulls wanting LaMelo Ball. The chatter was that they wouldn't let him fall past four and were already trying to move up to get him pre-draft.

And I'm sure there were other opportunities available that leave Edwards to the Wolves at three in that scenario. Maybe the Knicks or Pistons trade up for the allure of Ball. To have such confidence that Edwards was going second overall when there's enough reason to believe otherwise just doesn't add up to me.

Agreed.

I don't see why GSW would have felt stuck at #2 if they didn't really dig the guy there.

I think they would have felt stuck because they would have been hit with the same reality Rosas was likely hit with- the Big 3 were just not attractive enough to lead any savvy GM to offer much of value to move up. Or at least all offers weren't considered attractive enough to pull the trigger. That's why there was no movement in the top 3, even though we can be fairly certain there were a lot of weak offers. We've heard the Bulls offered Carter to move up two spots, but to my point, the offer (if there even was an offer) was not deemed sufficient to accept. Would the Bulls have offered Carter to move up to get Edwards if we had chosen Wiseman? Maybe, but doubtful. And even though there was chatter that they were not going to let Ball fall below 4, it was just that- chatter. And there's no indication they would take Ball at 2. The Rosas detractors here are putting a lot of faith in the ability of the top 3 picks to move down, and yet it didn't happen for some very good reasons If I'm Rosas, I'm not willing to roll the dice on GS not choosing Edwards or trading down, in which case I would still bet money that the team trading up would select Edwards, leaving us still stuck with Ball- or with a third pick that isn't very valuable in the eyes of the GM's below us. The prevailing opinion here was "Wiseman, but also anything but Ball". I think Rosas also wanted to avoid Ball at all costs, and knew that trading down to 3 would leave us with Ball as the top guy on the board. No thanks.

Trading down was my first choice, but it was not without a significant element of risk if Wiseman and Edwards went 1-2. I wouldn't have done it, and I'm glad Rosas avoided that risk.

We don't know what was actually offered either team... and that's really where any discussion about right/wrong moves would need to go.

That being said... I advocated moving out of #3, too.

Yeah, me too. I think Ball is going to be a disaster. So if we had traded down to 3 and Wiseman/Edwards were gone, I would have been forced to trade down. But I just don't think GMs would be clamoring to pick up Ball with so much talent available in the next 10 picks.

You're right that this is all conjecture, because we don't have any idea what kind of deals were on the table. My hypothesis is that the absence of a true Zion-like #1 led to some very poor offers. But that's only a guess. You guys could be right.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

We've heard the Bulls offered Carter to move up two spots, but to my point, the offer (if there even was an offer) was not deemed sufficient to accept.

Why would the Warriors move out of the No. 2 spot before knowing if their top pick was unavailable? Or rather, why would Golden State trade out of their slot when the guy they wanted all along was going to be available in James Wiseman? That does not deem the reported Chicago offer insufficient, FNG. All that means is that the situation never played out because the Wolves allowed the Warriors to get their top prospect. Golden State went with Plan A instead of having to engage in their Plan B.

Would the Bulls have offered Carter to move up to get Edwards if we had chosen Wiseman? Maybe, but doubtful.

This comment doesn't make any sense considering Chicago's trade target was LaMelo Ball and he would have still been available. That draft slot would have remained valuable to Chicago.

And even though there was chatter that they were not going to let Ball fall below 4, it was just that- chatter. And there's no indication they would take Ball at 2.

Much of this is chatter, but that doesn't make it any less reasonable. And all indications are that the Bulls would have traded up to secure Ball. Jonathan Givony mentioned as much on The Lowe Post before the draft. Where there's smoke, there's often fire.

I think you're digging yourself deeper into this belief that Gersson Rosas just had no other play in his playbook than to take Edwards first overall when in reality he had several moves at his disposal.

[AbeVigodaLive]

We've heard the Bulls offered Carter to move up two spots, but to my point, the offer (if there even was an offer) was not deemed sufficient to accept.

Why would the Warriors move out of the No. 2 spot before knowing if their top pick was unavailable? Or rather, why would Golden State trade out of their slot when the guy they wanted all along was going to be available in James Wiseman? That does not deem the reported Chicago offer insufficient, FNG. All that means is that the situation never played out because the Wolves allowed the Warriors to get their top prospect. Golden State went with Plan A instead of having to engage in their Plan B.

Would the Bulls have offered Carter to move up to get Edwards if we had chosen Wiseman? Maybe, but doubtful.

This comment doesn't make any sense considering Chicago's trade target was LaMelo Ball and he would have still been available. That draft slot would have remained valuable to Chicago.

And even though there was chatter that they were not going to let Ball fall below 4, it was just that- chatter. And there's no indication they would take Ball at 2.

Much of this is chatter, but that doesn't make it any less reasonable. And all indications are that the Bulls would have traded up to secure Ball. Jonathan Givony mentioned as much on The Lowe Post before the draft. Where there's smoke, there's often fire.

I think you're digging yourself deeper into this belief that Gersson Rosas just had no other play in his playbook than to take Edwards first overall when in reality he had several moves at his disposal.

If you have the #1 pick in the draft... you have options.

If you have the #2 pick in the draft (D. Williams)... you have options.

Even if you have the #4 pick in the draft (W. Johnson)... you have options.

Obviously, various Timberwolves front office regimes have had a very different view of drafting (or trading the pick) than I have had over the years.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Rosas took the guy he wanted. That's it. Edwards was his top prospect in a tier above guys like Melo and the rest. If he thought there were other guys in the same tier as Edwards he would have traded down but he had Edwards a tier above all those guys. He traded up last year with Garland and Culver as the last 2 guys in his best tier available still on the board and ended up with Culver even though he wanted Garland. We know he makes moves if he can still get a player in the same tier and that wasn't available this year. That's what you do with the number 1 pick. We can debate whether or not his tiers are wrong, but he's been consistent with how he deals around his draft values for 2 years now.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Rosas took the guy he wanted. That's it. Edwards was his top prospect in a tier above guys like Melo and the rest. If he thought there were other guys in the same tier as Edwards he would have traded down but he had Edwards a tier above all those guys. He traded up last year with Garland and Culver as the last 2 guys in his best tier available still on the board and ended up with Culver even though he wanted Garland. We know he makes moves if he can still get a player in the same tier and that wasn't available this year. That's what you do with the number 1 pick. We can debate whether or not his tiers are wrong, but he's been consistent with how he deals around his draft values for 2 years now.

Shopping the pick until the very moment Minnesota makes their selection doesn't give me any indication that they actually felt too strongly about Anthony Edwards, but I know what the narrative is and how they claim Edwards to be in a tier by himself. I find that nonsensical, though.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Has there ever been a front office that has not gotten the right player at the spot they were picking?

"Damn it. Things didn't go as planned and we had to wing it at the last second and settle."

- AbeVigodaLive when he's hired as GM... and almost immediately before he's fired as GM.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Rosas took the guy he wanted. That's it. Edwards was his top prospect in a tier above guys like Melo and the rest. If he thought there were other guys in the same tier as Edwards he would have traded down but he had Edwards a tier above all those guys. He traded up last year with Garland and Culver as the last 2 guys in his best tier available still on the board and ended up with Culver even though he wanted Garland. We know he makes moves if he can still get a player in the same tier and that wasn't available this year. That's what you do with the number 1 pick. We can debate whether or not his tiers are wrong, but he's been consistent with how he deals around his draft values for 2 years now.

Shopping the pick until the very moment Minnesota makes their selection doesn't give me any indication that they actually felt too strongly about Anthony Edwards, but I know what the narrative is and how they claim Edwards to be in a tier by himself. I find that nonsensical, though.

If they didn't feel strongly about him then why are you making all this fuss about him for sure being available at 3 in a trade down? They just would have traded down if they didn't like anyone at the top and could have picked up an extra asset in the process. The number 3 pick and any other player is an instant trade that's made if you don't like Edwards that much and you don't want to take Wiseman. Your logic doesn't add up on this one.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Rosas took the guy he wanted. That's it. Edwards was his top prospect in a tier above guys like Melo and the rest. If he thought there were other guys in the same tier as Edwards he would have traded down but he had Edwards a tier above all those guys. He traded up last year with Garland and Culver as the last 2 guys in his best tier available still on the board and ended up with Culver even though he wanted Garland. We know he makes moves if he can still get a player in the same tier and that wasn't available this year. That's what you do with the number 1 pick. We can debate whether or not his tiers are wrong, but he's been consistent with how he deals around his draft values for 2 years now.

Shopping the pick until the very moment Minnesota makes their selection doesn't give me any indication that they actually felt too strongly about Anthony Edwards, but I know what the narrative is and how they claim Edwards to be in a tier by himself. I find that nonsensical, though.

If they didn't feel strongly about him then why are you making all this fuss about him for sure being available at 3 in a trade down? They just would have traded down if they didn't like anyone at the top and could have picked up an extra asset in the process. The number 3 pick and any other player is an instant trade that's made if you don't like Edwards that much and you don't want to take Wiseman. Your logic doesn't add up on this one.

Your question doesn't make any sense. Also, you're assuming that Minnesota's front office is competent and capable enough to maneuver on draft night and make the correct decisions. Maybe they just aren't and that's the issue that I'm pointing out.

So far, I haven't seen anything that would give me that much confidence in them from the trade up to No. 6 in 2019 to how they handled No. 1 this year, how they dealt No. 17 for Ricky Rubio despite more valuable players being traded for later picks, and then the curious trade back up to 23 for a draft stash. Collectively, these moves are questionable at best. Don't be so confident in this front office.

Read my responses above to FNG on why I'm sure Anthony Edwards would have been available at three. I'm not going to spell it out for you too when it's right here in the thread.

It's conceivable and perhaps even likely that Minnesota worked the phones down to the wire trying to trade the pick for an All-Star player and were denied, and then simply took the high-ceiling prospect that didn't cause waves with their two most-established players on the roster.

[Lipoli390]

I think Rosas clearly had Edwards at the top of his draft board well ahead of any of the other prospects. I don't think he was particularly serious about entertaining offers for the pick on draft day. I'm sure they took calls, but I think by that point Rosas was just waiting for the proverbial offer he couldn't refuse and fully intended to draft Edwards unless he unexpectedly receive that sort of offer.

My sense is that Rosas hits a point where he falls in love with a player and then fixates on getting that player and keeping him. We saw it with DLO when Rosas went all out trying to recruit him as a free agent and eventually traded for him. We saw it again recently when gave very generous contracts to Beasley and Juancho without any reports of significant interest in either one around the League. Those were "his" guys he traded for last February and in my view he was determined to keep them.

I think Rosas fell in love with Edwards at some point in the process. It might have been at the private workout when Edwards rebuffed his trainer's directive in favor of taking more threes, attributing his decision to because that's what the Wolves "system." When I saw Rosas rave about that moment, I was actually embarrassed for him. It's the sort of thing David Kahn might have said, but I'm not sure even he would have said it. I just don't think Rosas is the sharpest knife in the drawer. As a result, I don't think he makes smart judgments on the big things. I do think he has a higher quality of scouts and basketball people around him, which I would point to as the reason his regime has done better at identifying young undrafted talent like Naz Reid, JMac and even K. Martin. But on the big decisions like first round picks and major trades, where Rosas calls the shots, the track record of the Rosas regime is a bit suspect.

If Edwards, McDaniels or Culver develops into a star in the next couple years, then that will be enough to quell my doubts.