This is Towns shoot compared to last year from Basketball Reference not including tonight's debacle. He is shooting a relatively high % at 3 he is still less efficient so far this year after completely removing his mid - range game. There is a notable shift from 16 ft+ 2 pointers to almost completely 3 pt shots. Almost a quarter of his shots are 3s and he is scoring at a bit lower efficiency in terms of eFG% and TS%. So the big question is whether this shift is worth it? This doesn't include the effect on our offensive spacing when we don't have a legit big in the low post. I think we were all expecting bigger things from Towns compared last year. I think if you really want to look at our difference from this year to the last 20 games of last year it starts with our best player. Now i am sure Thibs may have an impact on this but I am not thrilled about the less efficient, Towns as a 4 compared to the more efficient Towns as a Center.
To me it's not the 3 pointers that are the problems it's that he goes too fast and since he often is all the way out at the 3 point line he has to go farther to get to a spot. Tonscore which leads to problems. Like you said he isn't taking as many long 2's which is good and bad I guess. Sometimes he should probably put that part back in his game. The good news is that his FT rate is up Jim Pete talks about Towns needing to draw more fouls. I agree and Towns sometimes does too many scoop shots he needs to draw fouls instead of doing those awkward shots where he ends up hitting the floor. He doesn't need to do that so often. He just needs to slow down. It really seems like KG may have had a positive effect on Towns's offensive game but he is gonna figure things out.
monsterpile wrote:To me it's not the 3 pointers that are the problems it's that he goes too fast and since he often is all the way out at the 3 point line he has to go farther to get to a spot. Tonscore which leads to problems. Like you said he isn't taking as many long 2's which is good and bad I guess. Sometimes he should probably put that part back in his game. The good news is that his FT rate is up Jim Pete talks about Towns needing to draw more fouls. I agree and Towns sometimes does too many scoop shots he needs to draw fouls instead of doing those awkward shots where he ends up hitting the floor. He doesn't need to do that so often. He just needs to slow down. It really seems like KG may have had a positive effect on Towns's offensive game but he is gonna figure things out.
I think you're right about the spacing. I don't know how he's going to get more fouls 28 feet away from the basket. On the first action 18 feet should be the farthest out he is, if he leaks to 3 from there so be it. But a 3 pointer from a center is crazy. I want Hakeem Olajuwon and not Seattle Sam Perkins.
monsterpile wrote:To me it's not the 3 pointers that are the problems it's that he goes too fast and since he often is all the way out at the 3 point line he has to go farther to get to a spot. Tonscore which leads to problems. Like you said he isn't taking as many long 2's which is good and bad I guess. Sometimes he should probably put that part back in his game. The good news is that his FT rate is up Jim Pete talks about Towns needing to draw more fouls. I agree and Towns sometimes does too many scoop shots he needs to draw fouls instead of doing those awkward shots where he ends up hitting the floor. He doesn't need to do that so often. He just needs to slow down. It really seems like KG may have had a positive effect on Towns's offensive game but he is gonna figure things out.
I think you're right about the spacing. I don't know how he's going to get more fouls 28 feet away from the basket. On the first action 18 feet should be the farthest out he is, if he leaks to 3 from there so be it. But a 3 pointer from a center is crazy. I want Hakeem Olajuwon and not Seattle Sam Perkins.
I like this thread.
It's tough the game is different. The other day David Aldridge answered a question from a Nets fan that was unhappy with Brook Lopez taking 3's "not being a big man" etc. Aldridge said basically the game has changed and bigs shoot 3's now you can't blame Lopez for taking them at this point. I just looked it up he is hitting over 37% from 3 which certainly is pretty good.
So anyway back to Towns who is a terrific shooter and he does have a pretty god handle for a guy his size. He can also post up obviously as well and he has ability to make plays for others. Why isn't he putting it all together? What's wrongs with him?
Again as I mentioned in another thread Kevin Love who is a wonderfully talented offensive player took over 2 years and a coaching change and being healthy to get back to doing his thing which is a combination of outside shooting posting and being a guy that you can run some stuff through. So if Kevin Love who was a 7+ year vet and basketball savant had a tough time figuring it out...it makes sense Towns is having a bit of trouble finding that balance in his 2nd year playing with some other young players. It's still a good discussion of what he should be doing. You can say the same thing for Wiggins. This season Lavine has been the guy that's seemed to be most consistent in figuring out what his role is offensively and picking his spots. He has the game for that though maybe more than the other guys right now be cause he has legit ball handling and shooting skills plus he can attack the rim some as well. It's kinda amazing how much he has refined his game.
I look at it more simply. The efficiency drop is in the numbers. Either we assume he shoots the same % from three in which case he would have to either shoot more 3s or get to the line 3 more times a game to reach last year's efficiency numbers.
The basic principle we have seen is he is taking more 3s and is less efficient. I don't want to see him taking more. Coincidentally he shot 50% last year from 16+ 2s. You can take that all day.
He needs to hang around the elbow more so his pump fake drives lead to and 1's or easy passes and not poor shots because he can't go from the 3pt line to the rim before the help can rotate. He also needs to roll to the rim more on the PnR. He's just not mixing it up well to both be efficient himself and keep the defense off-guard. You can do way more damage on the PnPop from the free throw line than the 3pt line because of the pressure it puts on the defense to pick rotating to Towns or giving him and easy pass to a teammate. He needs to watch some David Lee tape from the finals 2 years ago where he saved the series with his fantastic PnR play from the elbow/FT line.
Or just bust out the Kevin Love tape showing how to be a God out of the high post. Seriously, that guy in his prime here was unguardable for most of the game because of how efficiently he was able to mix it up from just one spot.
thedoper wrote:I look at it more simply. The efficiency drop is in the numbers. Either we assume he shoots the same % from three in which case he would have to either shoot more 3s or get to the line 3 more times a game to reach last year's efficiency numbers.
The basic principle we have seen is he is taking more 3s and is less efficient. I don't want to see him taking more. Coincidentally he shot 50% last year from 16+ 2s. You can take that all day.
Yeah he isn't setting up for those shots either by what he is doing or the way the offense of run probably a bit of a combination plus teams even last year were watching for that tendency from Rubio to set up that shot for him.
Another aspect that hurts his efficiency compared to last year is he is actually taking more shots at the rim but finishing at a lower rate. If he starts hitting those bunnies he has been missing quite a bit of he is probably back close to what he was last year.
Nice set analysis Doper. A couple things stand out to me:
- How sustainable was that 16 ft to < 3pt shot percentage from last year? 51% from that range is almost unheard of. That's like JJ Redick/Steph Curry territory. I think as a rookie he was largely given that shot wide open and now folks are closing on him a bit more aggressively. There was just no way to sustain that level of accuracy.
- Notice the % of his shots that are assisted this year versus last year? It's dropped by 10%. That validates our eye test of him going one-on-one more often this year.
- His % of attempts from 0-3 feet has actually gone up. That's a good thing.
- However, his FG% from 0-3 feet has dipped from 70% to 60%.
I don't mind the 3-point shots as he shoots them well and it's an efficient shot for him. Perhaps it's more an issue of calibrating when he should go inside versus go outside. He clearly has the talent and skill to be dangerous from almost anywhere on the floor. The biggest issue to me is that he's forcing things too much.
Interesting thread and good points by all of you. I have to admit I'm on the fence. It frustrates me sometimes (like in the second half last night) to see KAT hanging around the 3-point line, but then again he is our second best 3-point shooter...virtually tied with Wig and Zach...and his 37.8 rate translates to a 56.7 true rate. But then again hanging around out there will reduce his attempts at the line and his TS%. I agree with monster that he isn't hitting some easy shots inside as frequently as he should be. KAT is a budding star and is going to become more efficient inside while continuing to be a threat outside. The solution is to develop both parts of his game and for Thibs to direct him to the best outcome depending on how the defense is reacting. His performance this year has been uneven to say the least, but I see better days ahead.
