Sobering Article

[Coolbreeze44]

Though the Minnesota Timberwolves' Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins regularly get hyped as the NBA's next superstar tandem, could the Milwaukee Bucks' combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker actually be better?

With Milwaukee competing for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference led by its two young, budding stars, the debate feels closer than it did last season when Towns was just starting to flash his enormous potential and the Bucks were struggling.

So, which duo is better right now? And, assuming they stay together, which one projects to be better down the line?




Fair comparison?

Conventional wisdom might suggest that the timelines don't match to compare these two pairs. After all, the Milwaukee duo has been together a year longer. With the jump that high-ceiling players can make from their second to third years, it would appear on first glance to be an unfair proposition.

However, all four players are closer in age than you might think. Antetokounmpo just turned 22 this month and Parker will be 22 in March. Wiggins turns 22 in February and Towns, the young pup of the group, will be 22 next November.

And, due to Parker's rookie season in which he was limited to just 25 games, he and Antetokounmpo have appeared together in only 18 more games than Towns and Wiggins. The Bucks pair has also played fewer total minutes together.

On a basic box score level, they appear neck and neck, with the Minnesota duo averaging slightly more points and rebounds, and the Bucks holding an edge in assists, steals and blocks. When it comes to just those five main stats, there might not be a more complete player in the entire league than Antetokounmpo, who leads his team in all five categories, something that only LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen and Dave Cowens have done for an entire season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau research.

But going beyond simple box score measures, how do the two stack up?




Offensive impact


On the offensive end, Towns ranks as the best among all NBA centers in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) at plus-2.65. While Wiggins is averaging more than 22 PPG, RPM actually rates him as a negative offensive player (minus-0.09, 27th among SFs). There's more to offense than simply filling the points column.

Though he has improved his 3-point shot considerably, shooting a career-best 38.4 percent, Wiggins still ranked 31st in effective field-goal percentage among the 33 players averaging 20 PPG entering this week, thanks in part to converting just 45.4 percent of his 2-point attempts. He has not yet grown much as a playmaker either, still averaging fewer than 2.5 APG with an assist rate (9.3) that, like Towns (9.6), ranks in the bottom 10 among the league's 20-point scorers and is far behind Antetokounmpo, who ranks in the top 10 in that same group (at 20.7).

Parker is not yet a member of that 20-point club, but he's close. With an assist rate only slightly better than that of Wiggins and Towns, it's not an area where he yet adds much value. Though Parker may not be creating for others, he's not detracting much either, as his turnover rate of just 6.4 is by far the best of these four and very good for a player putting up more than 19 PPG.

Parker's low turnover rate is even more impressive when taking into consideration how often he pushes the pace. In each of the two wins over the Chicago Bulls last week, Parker showed just how much of a force he has become in transition. Exhibit A. Exhibit B.

Among players with at least 75 plays in transition, only LeBron James and Jimmy Butler averaged more points per play entering this week, while only James was shooting a higher percentage. Throw in the fact that more than 17 percent of his offensive plays are in transition (nearly twice that of Wiggins) and it's evident that Parker has become an open-floor nightmare for opposing defenses.

With both Antetokounmpo and Parker also shooting better from the floor than Towns and Wiggins -- and Giannis up to 22nd overall in offensive RPM and Parker just outside the top 50 -- it's no surprise that the Bucks duo's combined ORPM of plus-4.06 rates ahead of the plus-2.56 for Towns and Wiggins.




Antetokounmpo is already one of the best defensive players in the league.


Defensive impact

When it comes to the defensive end of the floor, Antetokounmpo is simply on another level than any of the other three. Threatening to join Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Gerald Wallace as one of the few to ever average 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game, the Greek Freak's youthful combination of size, length and speed gives him the tools to be a truly transcendent defensive force. He currently ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive RPM (3.78) and is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Antetokounmpo's defensive wizardry shouldn't come as a surprise. But when it comes to comparing these young duos, what might come as a surprise is just how far Towns and Wiggins still have to go, especially when compared to Parker.

According to RPM, Parker has been the fourth-worst defensive power forward in the NBA this season (-1.29). While often playing as a somewhat undersized 4, he's statistically been one the worst defensive rebounders. And though he's averaging more than a steal per game, Parker had blocked a grand total of five shots before this week, the second-fewest among the nearly 50 players with at least 20 starts at power forward or center. Only Rockets forward Ryan Anderson had provided less block-related rim protection. Going back to his only season at Duke, defense has always been Parker's biggest weakness and this season has been no different.

And yet, both Towns and Wiggins -- despite now playing for Tom Thibodeau -- have been worse.

Of the nearly 40 players with at least 850 minutes played this season, Wiggins ranked dead last in steals as of Sunday, with an unimpressive steal rate of 0.7 percent. The 6-foot-8 Wiggins has 10 blocks in nearly 1,000 minutes, one more than the generously listed 6-foot Ish Smith has in more than 100 fewer minutes. And of the nearly 100 players 6-foot-8 or taller to log at least 500 total minutes, only Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has grabbed a smaller percentage of available defensive rebounds. Of the 432 qualified players, Wiggins ranks 419th in defensive RPM (minus-2.43).

As for Towns, while he hasn't been as bad as Wiggins, he's not far behind. Currently ranked 402nd overall in defensive RPM (minus-1.91), Towns is also dead last among all centers. One season after ranking second among rookies in BPG behind only Kristaps Porzingis, Towns has regressed as his blocks per game have dropped from 1.7 to 1.4 despite playing three more minutes.

Only three teams have allowed a better shooting percentage on shots inside the restricted area than Minnesota's 63.2, a number that jumps to 64.4 with Towns in the game. He also has seen both his steal rate and defensive rebound rate fall from his rookie season, not good signs for a potentially high-impact defensive player in his second season.

If you add up the defensive RPMs of Towns and Wiggins, the minus-4.34 figure is far behind that of Antetokounmpo and Parker, who have combined for a plus-2.49 defensive RPM. While it's likely Towns and Wiggins show signs of improvement, especially under Thibodeau, the defensive gap between the two duos nearly a third of the way through the season is extraordinary.




Projecting their futures

Offensive and defensive numbers aside, there's perhaps no greater sign as to how these two dynamic duos currently stack up than by looking at the standings.

As Towns, Wiggins and the rest of the Wolves have stumbled into a bottom-five record in a season many expected them to show serious signs of playoff contention, the Bucks have seized an opportunity in the wide open Eastern Conference. ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) currently gives the Bucks a 56.3 percent chance of making the playoffs in the East and just a 5.4 percent chance for the Wolves out West.

While nobody knows for certain what the future may hold, Kevin Pelton's multi-year projections tip the odds ever so slightly in favor of Milwaukee's duo. And by ever so slightly, we mean ever so slightly. Using a combination of RPM and WARP, Pelton's model projects wins added over the next three seasons.

Comparing the alphas (as of Sunday), Antetokounmpo projects for 36.0 WARP over the course of the 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, just ahead of the 35.8 WARP for Towns. And when it comes to the second bananas, Parker holds a similar edge over Wiggins, 9.1 to 8.9, respectively. Add it up and the Bucks' duo projects for 0.4 wins added more than the Timberwolves' duo over the next three seasons.

Of course, anything can change over time. But as it stands in December 2016, it appears that Milwaukee -- not Minnesota -- now has NBA's most dominant young duo, and has a real chance at passing the Wolves' pairing when they reach their peak.

[Coolbreeze44]

It's just an analytical based debate, and thankfully analytics are not guarantees of future performance. It's also nice that Zach isn't included in the discussion, for that would heavily tilt things in our favor. But at a minimum, it shows the improvements needed by both KAT and Wig.

[Monster]

I think the Wolves have a terrific roster but there are other teams out there with some nice young players (like the Bucks who also have Middleton) and pieces that have potential to be pretty good themselves. I think Thibs and Layden realize they can't just enjoy the fruits of the young 3 they have to keep building throughout the entire roster. I think the NBA has the potential to explode with new young talent especially when it comes to bigmen and some of those guys will be interesting combo players like GF and Parker.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

While these guys are similar ages, Giannis is in his 4th year in the NBA, so he has one more season than Wiggins and two more than KAT. That's a pretty big deal. In fact, KAT's rookie year advanced stats (PER, WS/48, etc.) were better than Giannis's 3rd year stats. It's just this year that he took a massive leap forward and is now looking like a two-way dominant player. Good for him.

To me this is all about defense. The RPM stat absolutely hammers KAT, Wiggins, and Zach on defense, while giving Dieng and Rubio fairly high marks. While we can argue over how to assign blame among the players, the fact is we are one of the worst defenses in the league. So when these stats get figured out for a bottom-dwelling team, someone is going to take the hit, In our case, it's the three young guys. They need to get better. By a lot.

[Coolbreeze44]

I just wonder how quickly the wing defenders would improve if you had better protection at the rim. Defense works from the inside out. I'm not so sure one dominant interior defender wouldn't make all the parts look a lot better.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Here's another article raving about Giannis.

https://theringer.com/battle-of-the-nba-unicorns-bdf6c4a7b331#.o48prsc7v

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I just wonder how quickly the wing defenders would improve if you had better protection at the rim. Defense works from the inside out. I'm not so sure one dominant interior defender wouldn't make all the parts look a lot better.

RPM supposedly accounts for team mates, but yeah, stick DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert on our team and I'm sure things would be much better. They are truly dominant defensive Centers.

Still.....

- Cleveland has Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson as their two starting bigs - neither have great length or hops - yet here they are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Why? Because LeBron and JR Smith are pretty good defenders.

- Charlotte has the great Cody Zeller, who is no bigger than Towns by the way, starting at Center with Marvin Williams - a 'tweener SF/PF - at power forward. They are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency. Why? MKG and Batum know how to defend.

- Luc Longley played Center for those ferocious Bulls teams back in the day. It helped that Jordan and Pippen were both elite wing defenders.

Wings can absolutely be huge difference makers defensively without a ton of help from bigs. In our case, we don't have a single dominant defender at any position. But I would argue we are softest at SG, SF, and PF.

[thedoper]

I just wonder how quickly the wing defenders would improve if you had better protection at the rim. Defense works from the inside out. I'm not so sure one dominant interior defender wouldn't make all the parts look a lot better.

RPM supposedly accounts for team mates, but yeah, stick DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert on our team and I'm sure things would be much better. They are truly dominant defensive Centers.

Still.....

- Cleveland has Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson as their two starting bigs - neither have great length or hops - yet here they are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Why? Because LeBron and JR Smith are pretty good defenders.

- Charlotte has the great Cody Zeller, who is no bigger than Towns by the way, starting at Center with Marvin Williams - a 'tweener SF/PF - at power forward. They are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency. Why? MKG and Batum know how to defend.

- Luc Longley played Center for those ferocious Bulls teams back in the day. It helped that Jordan and Pippen were both elite wing defenders.

Wings can absolutely be huge difference makers defensively without a ton of help from bigs. In our case, we don't have a single dominant defender at any position. But I would argue we are softest at SG, SF, and PF.

Thompson is a great defender, maybe top for a 4 in the league as I'm racking my brain to think of a defensive player I would rather have than him at the 4.

[Coolbreeze44]

I just wonder how quickly the wing defenders would improve if you had better protection at the rim. Defense works from the inside out. I'm not so sure one dominant interior defender wouldn't make all the parts look a lot better.

RPM supposedly accounts for team mates, but yeah, stick DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert on our team and I'm sure things would be much better. They are truly dominant defensive Centers.

Still.....

- Cleveland has Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson as their two starting bigs - neither have great length or hops - yet here they are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Why? Because LeBron and JR Smith are pretty good defenders.

- Charlotte has the great Cody Zeller, who is no bigger than Towns by the way, starting at Center with Marvin Williams - a 'tweener SF/PF - at power forward. They are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency. Why? MKG and Batum know how to defend.

- Luc Longley played Center for those ferocious Bulls teams back in the day. It helped that Jordan and Pippen were both elite wing defenders.

Wings can absolutely be huge difference makers defensively without a ton of help from bigs. In our case, we don't have a single dominant defender at any position. But I would argue we are softest at SG, SF, and PF.

You bring up good examples, ableit extreme ones, but your first paragraph makes the most sense. Are you arguing my point about defense being played from the inside out?

[KiwiMatt]

Every time I read these comparisons I get angry. The freak was there for the taking, but we took Muhammad.....

Anyways in terms of ranking who will have the best careers:

1 - KAT
2 - Greek Freak
3 - Wiggins
4 - Parker