What does success for a new head coach look like?

[thedoper]

Even with how inconsistent Ant's shooting has been I don't see how you start Nowell above him. Nowell is equally inconsistent with less gravity to his motion on the court. I hope Finch will get even more creative on Ant/KAT PnR if anything. More sets with KAT as the primary ball handler and Ant the screener.

[bleedspeed]

The team not moving or maybe success is them moving. It is hard to tell with this franchise.

[FNG]

I don't care, FNG. I typically skim over your comments these days anyways since you have a distorted view of the game and the players on the court. I just happened to notice the name-drop, though. I'm sure you'll continue to place an absurd amount of value on one notoriously flawed stat and ignore all others. Same old story.

Story of my life, cam...story of my life. Now, mix a stiff drink and brace yourself for a thread that takes the controversial stance that outscoring your opponent while you're on the court just might have some importance if you want to win basketball games. Or just skim over the thread or skip it completely and stay in the comfortable fantasyland where DLO is king and defense is optional. To paraphrase, denial is not just a river in Ethiopia ;) .

That's not what your thread or discussion points actually support, though. If it was, we'd see a much more comprehensive analysis than the one you typically give. You usually run your mouth about a statistic that tends to ignore context. It ignores factors that are out of players control, namely their other four teammates, their opposition's lineup at any given time, and the game situation. Therefore, you leave us all with a half-assed explanation of what happened over the course of a game or season because you can't seem to include other data into your assessment. We've talked about this many times and somehow you're still incapable of embracing it.

How does the saying go? What's the definition of insanity? Oh, right. All hail the plus-minus gods.

Hmm...let's look at some of the words you have used to describe me or my opinions just this morning. "distorted...absurd...run your mouth...half-assed...incapable of embracing...insanity". That's a pretty impressive list in just a couple hours! And the problem is, cam, I see that demeaning (oh, oh...FNG apparently can use disparaging language too when pushed) tone of voice way too often from you aimed at anyone who dares to offer a counterargument to one of your opinions that you cling to like you're clinging to a life raft. I'm assuming that this insulting tone is merely an internet thing...that you aren't insulting like that in your day-to-day activity. I really hope not, because that would be an unfortunate way to conduct your life.

Cam, different people have different views, and it's not an knock on you or an example of their stupidity if someone thinks differently than you do. In fact, you know what? They may even be right! Consider the possibility that it just might be true that DLO doesn't deserve a max contract, has an eFG% lower than the league average (well, actually that's an undisputed fact, not an opinion), plays really bad defense, and overall doesn't consistently improve his team. While almost all the posters here seem to enjoy voicing their opinion and respectively disagreeing with takes that don't reflect theirs, you seem to think that anyone who isn't 100% with you is a moron. My god, cam, lighten up a little...this is supposed to be fun! You're a fun guy to banter with with one of the best understandings of the college game on this board. But it's less fun and productive when personal insults take the place of robust basketball discussion. I have time for everyone's opinion about the Wolves, but I just don't have time for that. Life is too short.,

For the record, I look at several different measures to value a player. I think you do too; we just differ in the stats that we favor. My favorites are eFG% (shows me that the player is using good judgement in shot selection and executing on those decisions), defensive measures like Drtg and DRPM, and on/off statistics. While I agree that these can be meaningless with a small sample size, I've been watching basketball for a long time, and with very few exceptions, they seem to give me the best picture of how much value a player adds. I never arrive at an opinion about a player based on just one of these stats, but collectively they are very informative for me. I also look at raw stats like PPG, APG and RPG, but I'm also quite cautious about relying on them too much because...well, you know, Ricky Davis (and many others, I'm sorry to say). Yes I bring up on/off numbers from time to time, and you always seem to take it personally. But I would say more of my posts talk about aspects of the game that I gravitate to...ball movement, defense and effective shooting.

So skim over or skip my posts if you wish. Or read them and fire out a barrage of personal slights...I have always had a thick skin. I'll continue to read yours, but I'll probably roll my eyes every time you mention D'Angelo's "all-star season".

[FNG]

I don't care, FNG. I typically skim over your comments these days anyways since you have a distorted view of the game and the players on the court. I just happened to notice the name-drop, though. I'm sure you'll continue to place an absurd amount of value on one notoriously flawed stat and ignore all others. Same old story.

Story of my life, cam...story of my life. Now, mix a stiff drink and brace yourself for a thread that takes the controversial stance that outscoring your opponent while you're on the court just might have some importance if you want to win basketball games. Or just skim over the thread or skip it completely and stay in the comfortable fantasyland where DLO is king and defense is optional. To paraphrase, denial is not just a river in Ethiopia ;) .

That's not what your thread or discussion points actually support, though. If it was, we'd see a much more comprehensive analysis than the one you typically give. You usually run your mouth about a statistic that tends to ignore context. It ignores factors that are out of players control, namely their other four teammates, their opposition's lineup at any given time, and the game situation. Therefore, you leave us all with a half-assed explanation of what happened over the course of a game or season because you can't seem to include other data into your assessment. We've talked about this many times and somehow you're still incapable of embracing it.

How does the saying go? What's the definition of insanity? Oh, right. All hail the plus-minus gods.

I think the Wolves should start

Rubio/Nowell/mcdaniels/ Layman/vandy

That has been the wolves best lineup this year when it comes to +/- that qualifies.

I don't really think Towns, Beasley, dlo or ant should really ever see the floor anymore

Wolves have 21 lineups that have a positive +/- if they have played any possessions at all. KAT is only in 3 of them. Trade him for Muscala now before it's to late

Sample size, kek, sample size...I can maybe even prove the world is flat with a very small sample size!

Comprehensive stats have little meaning when the sample size is too small. But I start to get more comfortable with comprehensive measures when the season is half over and players have played a considerable amount of minutes...especially when that data is fairly consistent over a number of years. The lineup you cite would never be a starting lineup of course...it's a high-energy lineup not sustainable over longer periods of time. But even though they have only been together for a minimal 121 possessions, I remember some of those minutes...because they were very entertaining... 5 high-energy high-effort guys who care about defense and actually show some defensive promise. It's interesting to me that none of our three worst defenders (Ant, DLO and Beas) appear in this lineup. We had some great runs when those 5 are on the court, but a smart coach is going to use them sparingly. But it is quite telling to me. I think you're a Cleaning the Glass guy, aren't you. I love the way they break things down. And you'll see KAT actually does very well by most measures, just as we would expect.

[AbeVigodaLive]

21-20.

This.

No analysis. No excuses. No feeling out period.

29 other teams have figured out way(S) to win more than 50% of their games better than the Wolves in the past 32 years. It's time the Wolves are measured in W/L record. Nothing else matters.

You know how to build a winning culture? WIN.

A .500 record with a suspect crew becomes a .600 record with a solid team... and go from there.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

You began with a troll job and have since pivoted to being a victim. I should have known this would be the end result. I was unaware that certain words or phrases would give you such hardship... I just hope that we can hold hands and come together during these difficult times. Your thick skin doesn't seem thick enough it appears. On with the day...

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I don't want to hear anyone say "success the rest of this year doesn't have to do with w/l, but rather featuring our star players, player development, and running a more structured system" or anything like that. We all know success is, and should be, measured in wins-losses.

So given the talent levels, ages, and health of our current team, I'm asking people to go on record as to what they would consider a "successful" record for the remainder of the 2020-21 season.

31 games in, record 7-24

41 games remain. I'll say 17-24 would be a successful end to the season. (sad that this is considered success, but given the start of the season I'm lowering my bar). If they repeat what they've done so far then it's a big failure.

I think we go 14-27.

I would be shocked if a coach can waltz in mid-season and suddenly take us to a .500 record the rest of the way, as others have indicated. I'd love it if it happened, but I think that ignores just how untalented or immature some of our players are.

Having said that, the 14-27 mark is a better win percentage than 7-24, so I do see improvement. Part of this is just sheer odds. The reality is that the team has been competitive and in every single one of the past 13 games. So it's not like we are getting blown out or mailing it in after we get into a 15 or 20 point hole. No, we've been battling back and taking teams deep into the 4th....only to throw up all over ourselves and lose. I think some of that changes, but not enough to fundamentally change the trajectory of a lost season.

[Lipoli390]

Making Towns THE focal point on offense is a success for me. No one gets to shoot more than KAT unless they are unconciuosly hot. That alone would improve our wins and losses.

World, that would be great. But I don't this hire is about that, unless he's just going to hang out at the arc all night. He may even get less shots. The biggest benefactors for shots are Beasley, DLO, Ant, Nowell, and probably Juancho.

Cool, that is certainly a possibility with rosas around. But if we are selling this hire as a coach who worked with the joker and ad, then this should be about building everything around towns right?

I have no faith in rosas but anyone who watches the nba will tell you that towns is on another tier above the rest of his teammates and its betond stupidity to not play tru KAT. Rosas cant be that dumb, can he?

A couple things. First he's going to play Towns a lot. But Towns doesn't have the skill set that a Joker does. And second, this is still Rosas show. The system didn't come from Ryan, it was mandated by Gersson. It's going to look more like the Rockets, and less like Denver. The biggest problem is we don't have a PG who can drive and kick like Harden. DLO should be a 2 in this system. Trying to have him run the offense defeats the basic tenets of the system. I'll give the new team a chance, but to me it looks like a mess and a complete failure waiting to happen.

Cool - I agree with your analysis for the most part. Finch may be a really good head coach, but he'll be hamstrung by Rosas and the roster Rosas has given him. I do think the team will be better and win more games with Finch than would have been the case with Ryan, but only to a limited extent. I agree that DLO should be a SG in this system, but of course that's not likely to happen, and even if it did, we'd still struggle defensively.

But we'll see. Maybe Finch will turn things around dramatically. I do like what we've seen from Edwards and McDaniels. Vanderbilt remains intriguing. Naz Reid and JMac are solid with potential to be even better. And unlike Ryan,, Finch comes with a resume worthy of a head coaching position in the NBA.

[FNG]

I don't want to hear anyone say "success the rest of this year doesn't have to do with w/l, but rather featuring our star players, player development, and running a more structured system" or anything like that. We all know success is, and should be, measured in wins-losses.

So given the talent levels, ages, and health of our current team, I'm asking people to go on record as to what they would consider a "successful" record for the remainder of the 2020-21 season.

31 games in, record 7-24

41 games remain. I'll say 17-24 would be a successful end to the season. (sad that this is considered success, but given the start of the season I'm lowering my bar). If they repeat what they've done so far then it's a big failure.

I think we go 14-27.

I would be shocked if a coach can waltz in mid-season and suddenly take us to a .500 record the rest of the way, as others have indicated. I'd love it if it happened, but I think that ignores just how untalented or immature some of our players are.

Having said that, the 14-27 mark is a better win percentage than 7-24, so I do see improvement. Part of this is just sheer odds. The reality is that the team has been competitive and in every single one of the past 13 games. So it's not like we are getting blown out or mailing it in after we get into a 15 or 20 point hole. No, we've been battling back and taking teams deep into the 4th....only to throw up all over ourselves and lose. I think some of that changes, but not enough to fundamentally change the trajectory of a lost season.

Q, you're right about the turnaround this team has made the last 13 games. Sure, 3-10 is disastrous. But the 24 point loss to Philly on 1/29 was the 11th double digit loss in the first 18 games...yep, 11 out of our first 18 games were losses by 10 or more. But since then we have not lost one game by double digits...not one. Cynics will say I'm setting the bar way too low, and I don't necessarily disagree...we need some wins dammit. But despite losing 10 out of our past 13 games, being competitive in all 13 after 11 blowouts has to be considered a remarkable turnaround. At the very least, a team that was unwatchable the first 18 games of the year has been quite entertaining the past 13. The ball movement has improved immensely, our teenagers have taken a few steps forward, and there seems to be at least a hint of defensive intensity and success...something we didn't see in our first 18 games.

So, we don't know if Finch will be an upgrade over Saunders as coach, but most of us suspect that he might be. And it's not going to take a sea change like we've seen in the past 13 games to turn this into at least a .500 ballclub. I guess we will find out soon enough why this team has been so unsuccessful in closing out games the past 13. Was it mostly the coaching, or was it mostly the players? I'm hopeful Finch will be enough of an upgrade to continue the uptrend this club has already been on and turn these 4-point losses into 4-point wins.

I'm hopeful. But then again, it's the Wolves.

[Jester1534]

You began with a troll job and have since pivoted to being a victim. I should have known this would be the end result. I was unaware that certain words or phrases would give you such hardship... I just hope that we can hold hands and come together during these difficult times. Your thick skin doesn't seem thick enough it appears. On with the day...

Ricky and FNG everyone losing there smile around here.

Want to point out my +- is zero this year. I'm ready to replace Rubio in line up whenever finch needs. Every team can use a 6'2 fat ginger on it.

I'm a terrible poster on the basketball side of this board. Partially cause I struggle with grammar (partially dyslectic) and my knowledge is not as advance. If I post something the chances someone will respond to it is 5% and of that 5% it's usually Kek and Cam. Kek literally called me the worst poster on here about month ago and I have no idea if he was joking or not. In years of randomly posting guys like Lip hardly if never respond to me because they don't respect my opinion.

I can say in years I've argued with Cam on the Twins side he's nothing but open minded and I appreciate his opinion. I will never convince him that Odo is below average pitcher.

My point It's his opinion and he's has every right to it and FNG you have your right to yours. We all don't have to fucking agree on everything and attack each other because how dare you have different opinion than me. It's number one problem on this country. We can't respect opposing opinions because my opinion has to be right and if not the same as yours your a bad person.