The draft is one week away, rank the 3 probable targets:

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

DX has moved Dunn up to 3, Chriss to 4 and Buddy to 5 over Murray and Bender.

I am buying into this. I think Thibs will want one of the older kids either Dunn or Buddy. I think he prefers Dunn but I am really buying the notion that Dunn goes 3 to Boston or someone else in trade.

Personally, today, I would go Murray over Buddy but I think the combination of age and defensive potential will tip the scale for Thibs and I am ok with that.

This changes for me daily but my personal preference is

1. Dunn
2. Murray
3. Hield

I think Thibs has Murray and Hield flipped though.

Thibs also likes smart decision makers. None of the three are necessarily GOOD in that regard yet, but Hield is the worst of those three.

AST/TO ratio in 2015-16:

- Dunn: 1.78 (206/116)

- Murray: 0.94 (79/84)

- Hield: 0.66 (75/113)

I think it's a possibility that Thibs might like Dunn the most, but I still maintain the belief that he sees Rubio as his starting point guard for at least the next two years. And even though Dunn does have the best ratio of the group, that's not really an impressive Mark considering the other two are more SG while he's supposed to be a floor general, and he's an upperclassman.

And there have been reports that Thibs is constantly talking about this team needing to add shooters. It's true. We have perhaps three reliable 3P shooters in LaVine, Towns, and Bjelica. That won't cut it. You can hope for internal growth, but it's pretty clear that we need help from outside.

With all that said, I think Murray might, MIGHT, be the dark horse favorite at No. 5 because of his overall package offensively -- mainly his elite shooting ability -- and how mature he is on the floor as a 19-year old.

[Phenom]

I dont think liking Dunn has much to do with Ricky, honestly. Ricky needs to be here for the forseeable future if Thibs wants to compete. I think one of the more overlooked needs for this team is a guy who can keep leads when Ricky sits. Tyus seemed to be an improvement over Zach running the point but that isn't saying much. Dunn has the potential to make point guard a 48 minute strength for this team on both sides of the ball and I think that is why Thibs like him. Also if Zach isn't up to par on D, he can insert Dunn with Ricky an get that level of D that he desires. Buddy and Murray on D does not have the chops that Dunn has but I think the edge probably goes to Buddy at this point. The upside is there with Murray though and I would not be surprised in the least if the Wolves picked him. Its a tossup really as we dont really know their board

[thedoper]

Gun to my head it's:

1.Bender
2.Murray
3. Hield/Dunn

I really don't like the spot we are picking at. This draft has seemed like such a mystery. Overall I felt like it was a down year for college ball and no one stood out as an individual talent. I'd be much more comfortable picking later where your pretty sure the type of B level meat and potatoes talent you're getting. Any of these 4 guys I could see being busts.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

I'm getting a kick out of our forecasting experts on this board saying who the "floors and ceilings" are for these prospects :thumb:

[Monster]

I dont think liking Dunn has much to do with Ricky, honestly. Ricky needs to be here for the forseeable future if Thibs wants to compete. I think one of the more overlooked needs for this team is a guy who can keep leads when Ricky sits. Tyus seemed to be an improvement over Zach running the point but that isn't saying much. Dunn has the potential to make point guard a 48 minute strength for this team on both sides of the ball and I think that is why Thibs like him. Also if Zach isn't up to par on D, he can insert Dunn with Ricky an get that level of D that he desires. Buddy and Murray on D does not have the chops that Dunn has but I think the edge probably goes to Buddy at this point. The upside is there with Murray though and I would not be surprised in the least if the Wolves picked him. Its a tossup really as we dont really know their board

Keep in mind vet PGs are easy and cheap to sign and Thibs has coached a couple of guys that are gonna be available.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

1a. Hield-I love the great three point shooting, he's a natural scorer, steps up in crunch time, improved every year, great work ethic, he's pretty athletic and can handle the ball a bit, length (6'9.5" wingspan, best overhead reach of the 3) and effort that make him a potentially good defender, he's got definite star potential. We need defense more than offense, but he's very likely to be at least adequate defensively while definitely giving us a 3 point shooting and scoring threat. His 3 point shooting could be good enough to really stretch opposing defenses and open up a lot of curbing and passing. He moves great without the ball, which helps open up passes and get the ball moving. His big weakness is turnovers and he's not known as much of a passer. If his defense comes along (and I'm confident it will given his record of working and improving every year), he could be the best pick of the three and should end up being one of the best out of the draft. Dude is passionate about the game.

1b. Dunn-Watching his highlights, I'd take him first. Dude is crazy athletic, plays hard on both sides of the ball, I love how he pushes the offense in transition and could give us a great on-the-ball perimeter defender, and with same wingspan as Hield, could play the 1 or 2. And he's a pretty good passer and rebounder and picks up steals. If his 3pt% from last year holds, he could be great. He'd probably be the most fun player of the three to watch if he pans out. Dunn, LaVine and Wiggins (or Butler? :) ) on the floor at the same time would be a blast. If he can raise his 3pt% just a bit, he'd be great. Love the intensity. A big part of me wants Hield, but the part of me that wants Dunn is definitely the cooler part.

2. Murray-He could end up being the best of the three, he does seem to be one of those guys who just has a great feel for the game, plus his age suggests he could improve much more. But I think my wariness about his defense on bigger, quicker, more athletic NBA guards means I'd list him behind Hield and Dunn.

[Monster]

I doubt it happens but if Bender did drop to #5 and we passed I would not be happy.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Question for SameOldDrew:

You called Buddy Hield a "natural scorer." How can this be? He didn't score more than 17.4 PPG until his senior year in which he had a fantastic season that nobody really saw coming. We give him credit for being a hard worker, being a gym rat because he turned himself into a very good player over the years he was in college. Previous to last year, he had a very shaky handle, struggled to get all the way to the rim, and wasn't nearly the shooter off the dribble that he is now. He put in the hours and got better, though.

To me, Hield is not a natural scorer. To me, "natural" indicates that they just had it like that since they were a kid and have been lighting defenses up since they were in high school. Hield is a product of hard work and a burning desire to get better. That's a compliment, don't get me wrong, but his scoring instincts are not natural, IMO. I can remember watching him and instead of taking what the defense was giving him, he'd predetermine a move (step-back jumper was the go-to) or overdribble leading to a turnover.

This isn't me knocking Hield for the player he is, but I feel like the love for him should be aimed around the work he put in on his game instead of saying he was naturally like this -- because he wasn't. Go watch sophomore Hield and you'll see some of the awkwardness I'm referring to.

[Mr. Brightside [enjin:16464947]]

Saying Buddy Hield's floor is J.J. Redick is a major disservice to the player Redick turned out to be. Getting to that level isn't easy. I would say Anthony Morrow or even Brandon Rush is a fine floor for Hield while being realistic.

Redick is perhaps a middle ground projection, but Hield is going to need to improve his ability to get open off screens to be able to get as much space as Redick does. He's so good in that regard.

I think Hield is going to be really, really good. I also think he has a high floor. Hence the Redick floor comparison.

[Mr. Brightside [enjin:16464947]]

I'm getting a kick out of our forecasting experts on this board saying who the "floors and ceilings" are for these prospects :thumb:

Projecting the prospects is half the fun, isn't it?